Weather to Watch
Los Angeles Angels at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Clear, 89F | Wind: 2 mph W
It's 89 degrees in Sacramento with almost no wind, and the heat alone is worth about 13% on home run odds. Best hitting conditions on the slate, and both lineups get them.
Arizona at Colorado | Coors Field | Overcast, 74F | Wind: 10 mph S
For once the wind at Coors is blowing out, 10 mph toward center, which adds roughly 9% to home run chances beyond what the altitude already gives. There's a 6% rain chance I wouldn't lose sleep over.
San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Clear, 70F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
70 degrees with 6 mph going out. That's about a 2% bump, so call it neutral.
Cincinnati at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 75F | Wind: 10 mph E
Warm enough to help, with a crosswind that takes most of it back. It nets out close to zero for home runs, and Atlanta's 5.2 implied runs don't need the help anyway.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Clear, 75F | Wind: 9 mph ENE
75 degrees and clear, but the 9 mph is blowing in and knocks about 6% off home runs. Kauffman already plays big, so I'd expect doubles more than homers from either side.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 63F | Wind: 12 mph NNE
63 degrees with a 12 mph crosswind costs about 10% on home runs. Right field is still short. It won't get any help tonight.
Houston at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 56F | Wind: 6 mph NNE
The roof should be open, and 56 degrees with the wind coming in is worth about 12% off home runs. That helps George Kirby, and it's the main reason I'm not stacking Seattle.
Cleveland at Boston | Fenway Park | Overcast, 55F | Wind: 8 mph NNE
Coldest game on the slate at 55 degrees, with 8 mph blowing in. Home run odds drop about 12%, and a 6.5 total says the market already knows it.
Miami at Chicago Cubs | Wrigley Field | Overcast, 63F | Wind: 10 mph NE
Biggest drop on the board. 10 mph blowing in from the lake cuts home run odds by about 24%, and I'd rather roster the pitchers in this one.
Globe Life's roof should be shut for the Mets and Rangers, which makes it the one game tonight where the forecast doesn't matter.
Model Bets
Over 6.5 (-123) | Miami at Chicago Cubs | Edge: +2.9%
The simulation has this Over at 55.6% against a devigged market at 52.7%. It runs straight into my Kevin Gausman call below and into 10 mph blowing in at Wrigley, so read this as the sim disagreeing with me.
Over 6.5 (-109) | Tampa Bay at New York Yankees | Edge: +2.8%
52.7% in the sim, 49.9% in the market. Gerrit Cole has allowed 1.56 HR/9 this year and Ian Seymour sits at 1.77 HR/9, and a 6.5 total with two home run prone starters is where the sim finds a little room.
New York Mets -1.5 (+156) | New York Mets at Texas | Edge: +2.5%
The sim covers this at 39.9%, the market at 37.4%. Nolan McLean is the better arm by a wide margin, and Cody Bradford brings a 4.71 K/9 and a 7.90 xFIP into a closed-roof game.
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+118) | Los Angeles Angels at Athletics | Edge: +1.4%
45.2% against 43.8%. Same read as my Angels stack below: Jeffrey Springs gives up 2.16 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, and all nine Angels in the lineup hit from the right side.
Seattle -1.5 (+144) | Houston at Seattle | Edge: +1.3%
40.5% in the sim against 39.2% in the market. Smallest edge of the group, and it lines up with my George Kirby blurb, since Houston is implied for about 3.3 runs in a cold park.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Zach Neto (LAA) DK $5,700 | FD $3,300 vs Jeffrey Springs
Neto has been the Angels' best bat against lefties all year, and tonight he leads off against the worst one on the board. Against southpaws: 140 wRC+, .229 ISO, 19.0% HR/FB, 44.9% hard contact over 187 plate appearances. Springs gives right-handed hitters a 3.66 BB/9 with 2.16 HR/9, and a lefty who falls behind that often ends up throwing fastballs down the middle in hitter's counts. The two sites split on price: $5,700 is expensive on DraftKings, while $3,300 on FanDuel sits in the middle of a hitter board that runs $2,000 to $4,500. I'd rather own him on FanDuel.
Andy Pages (LAD) DK $4,500 | FD $3,300 vs Robbie Ray
DraftKings has Pages at $4,500, and against lefties he hits like a much pricier bat. His line vs southpaws: 149 wRC+, .246 ISO, 21.6% HR/FB, 52.2% hard contact. Ray has handed righties 4.92 BB/9 and 1.54 HR/9 with a fly-ball rate near 37%, so he's running deep counts and then throwing strikes he doesn't want to throw. Pages hits third. At $4,500 he's the mid-tier bat I want most tonight.
Lazaro Montes (SEA) DK $3,400 | FD $2,700 vs Ethan Pecko
This one's a dart and I know it. Montes has only 32 plate appearances against righties, but 4 of them went over the fence with 58.3% hard contact, and that's hard to ignore at $3,400. Pecko is the reason to take the shot. Lefties have drawn 5.29 BB/9 off him with 2.65 HR/9 and a 27.8% HR/FB, so he's either walking them or leaving something over the middle. Houston's relievers aren't much better against lefties, with a 5.13 xFIP and 1.76 HR/9 across the past 30 days. The cold at T-Mobile works against him, which is why he's a salary save with a wide range of outcomes.
Stacks to Target
1. Arizona Diamondbacks vs Mason Adams (R) | Implied Total: 6.50 | ROO Score: 6.2/10 | CASH
Arizona's at 6.5 implied runs and nobody else on the board is within a run of that. Adams has made 5 starts, so the sample is small, but nothing in it is good: 4.70 BB/9, 2.35 HR/9, and left-handed hitters have a .440 wOBA against him with a 6.10 BB/9. That's where Nootbaar and Carroll come in, with Marte and Perdomo turning around to hit lefty. Fair warning: Arizona's left-handed hitters have only an 85 wRC+ against righties this year, so this is about the pitcher and the park more than the bats. Colorado's bullpen doesn't fix anything behind him, with a 5.17 ERA and 4.32 BB/9 in the past 30 days. Everybody will have this stack. I'm playing it anyway in cash.
Core pieces: Ketel Marte $5,300 (S), Corbin Carroll $5,400 (L), Gabriel Moreno $4,900 (R), Geraldo Perdomo $4,500 (S), Lars Nootbaar $3,600 (L)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Robbie Ray (L) | Implied Total: 5.29 | ROO Score: 5.0/10 | CASH
Ray's 3.75 ERA has held up all year, but I don't buy it. His xFIP is 5.02 and hitters are batting .257 on balls in play against him, so the ERA is running more than a run better than his walks and fly balls say it should. Righties are the problem side: 4.92 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9, 5.27 xFIP. The Dodgers' right-handed hitters carry a 111 wRC+ and a 16.2% HR/FB against lefties, and Pages, Betts and Teoscar Hernandez lead that group. San Diego's bullpen is the catch at a 3.32 xFIP across the past 30 days, so you're buying the first 5 innings. At 5.3 implied runs, that's enough for me.
Core pieces: Andy Pages $4,500 (R), Mookie Betts $5,200 (R), Teoscar Hernandez $4,800 (R), Freddie Freeman $5,100 (L), Alex Call $2,500 (R)
3. Los Angeles Angels vs Jeffrey Springs (L) | Implied Total: 5.15 | ROO Score: 4.6/10 | GPP
Nobody on this slate has a worse ERA than Springs at 6.19, and he's pitching in 89 degrees. He gives up 2.15 HR/9 overall and 2.16 HR/9 to righties, with a 22.5% HR/FB on that side. The Angels will run out nine right-handed hitters, and their righties have a 98 wRC+ and a 25.9% strikeout rate against lefties, so the case rests on Springs and the heat. The Athletics' pen owns a 3.31 xFIP against righties in the past 30 days, but it has allowed 44.9% hard contact, and I'd call that more luck than skill. The Angels won't be a secret, so get different at the bottom of the order with Peraza and Guzman rather than clicking Neto and Trout and moving on.
Core pieces: Zach Neto $5,700 (R), Mike Trout $5,800 (R), Jose Siri $4,100 (R), Oswald Peraza $3,800 (R), Denzer Guzman $3,200 (R)
Pitchers
Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs MIA | DK $8,800 | FD $8,300 | CASH
Gausman is the best buy-low starter tonight. The ERA is 4.55, but the xFIP is 3.29 and the SIERA is 3.19, and a .313 BABIP with a 68.1% strand rate explains the difference. The strikeouts are real at 9.26 K/9 with a 2.41 BB/9. Miami is implied for about 2.5 runs, and the one thing that hurts him, 1.31 HR/9, runs into 10 mph blowing in at Wrigley. He's my cash anchor.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs SD | DK $10,500 | FD $10,700 | CASH
He's the chalk for a reason. Yamamoto: 2.51 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 2.88 SIERA, 2.06 BB/9. The .217 BABIP says a little luck is baked into the ERA, but the strikeout and walk numbers make him a very good pitcher regardless, and San Diego is implied for 2.7 runs. On FanDuel you only roster one arm, so $10,700 there is easier to swallow than $10,500 next to a second starter on DraftKings. Paired with Gausman on DraftKings, it's $19,300 for both arms.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs CIN | DK $11,000 | FD $11,000 | GPP
Sale has the best numbers on the slate and the easiest matchup, with Cincinnati implied for 2.3 runs, the lowest total on the board. 2.18 ERA, 2.72 xFIP, 30.3% K rate, 1.78 BB/9. So why GPP? His last start was 12 days ago, which means he missed a turn, and I'm not sure how long Atlanta lets him go tonight. He's the most expensive arm on both sites at $11,000, and I won't put that in cash with a workload question attached. In tournaments, his ceiling is still the best on the board.
George Kirby (SEA) vs HOU | DK $8,300 | FD $8,600 | GPP
Kirby's 4.26 ERA hides a better pitcher. The xFIP is 3.75, the SIERA is 3.69, and a .336 BABIP is doing most of the damage. He keeps the ball on the ground at a 53.6% rate with a 2.34 BB/9, and Houston is implied for about 3.3 runs at T-Mobile with the wind in at 56 degrees. A 19.9% strikeout rate caps his ceiling. Still, he won't be popular, and he's $2,200 cheaper than Yamamoto on DraftKings.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Walbert Urena (LAA), Negative Regression Candidate
Urena's 2.76 ERA is the biggest mirage on the slate. His xFIP is 4.74, hitters are at .253 on balls in play, and he's stranding 79.4% of runners while walking 4.21 BB/9. Left-handed hitters draw walks off him at 5.15 BB/9. Now he takes that into 89 degrees at Sutter Health Park against an Athletics lineup implied for 4.35 runs. McNeil at $3,500, Butler at $3,900 and Cortes at $3,100 are the lefties I'd use, and none of them cost more than $3,900.
Seth Lugo (KC), Positive Regression Candidate
Lugo's 5.06 ERA is worse than the pitcher. A .331 BABIP and a 68.1% strand rate account for most of the gap to his 4.53 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA, and a 2.88 BB/9 means he isn't beating himself. Kauffman at 75 degrees, with the wind coming in, helps him too. Chicago is implied for 4.4 runs, which is fair, but at $6,500 on DraftKings he's a cheap second arm if you'd rather spend on bats.
Final Thoughts
Cash starts with Gausman at $8,800 and Yamamoto at $10,500, which leaves $30,700 for eight bats. Four Arizona pieces take $19,200 of that with Marte, Carroll, Moreno and Nootbaar, and Alex Call ($2,500) plus Ha-Seong Kim ($2,000) cover most of what's left without leaving the good lineups. Call hits eighth against a lefty for the Dodgers, and Kim is the cheapest way into Atlanta's 5.2 implied runs.
Two things to check before lock. Chicago has two arms priced on DraftKings, Bryan Hudson at $4,000 and Erick Fedde at $6,500, and Hudson has averaged just over an inning across his last 5 outings, so treat Fedde as the pitcher Kansas City will see most. Fedde has given righties 2.24 HR/9, which puts Bobby Witt at $6,100 and Salvador Perez at $3,200 in play. The other is Sale, where 12 days since his last start is reason enough to watch for any pitch-count news before you commit $11,000.
In tournaments, the Arizona and Colorado game is the one I'd stack from both sides. The total is 11, Colorado is implied for 4.5, and Merrill Kelly has given lefties 1.90 HR/9 with a 5.00 BB/9 and a .374 wOBA. Jake McCarthy at $5,700, TJ Rumfield at $4,200 and Mickey Moniak at $5,000 are the Colorado lefties, and they'll be lightly owned next to all that Arizona. Arizona's bullpen has held lefties to a 2.87 xFIP in the past 30 days, so the damage has to come early. If you want a cheaper contrarian path, the Athletics lefties against Urena play in the same 89 degrees as my Angels stack.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.