Weather to Watch
Houston at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Overcast, 88F | Wind: 9 mph WSW
Sacramento is 88 degrees with the wind blowing out at 9 mph, which adds about 17% to home run odds and 5% to scoring. No other park tonight is even in the same range, and this game also carries the only 11-run total on the board.
San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodger Stadium | Overcast, 68F | Wind: 6 mph WSW
It's 68 degrees at Dodger Stadium with a light 6 mph breeze out to center. I'd call it neutral and grade this game on the two starters.
Cincinnati at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 69F | Wind: 8 mph ENE
The wind blows in at 8 mph, and that takes about 5% off home runs. Atlanta's lefties against Brady Singer can live with a small ding like that.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 61F | Wind: 8 mph NNE
At 61 degrees with a crosswind, the Bronx loses roughly 10% on home runs tonight. Cam Schlittler is on the mound, so I don't plan to chase the right field seats anyway.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 57F | Wind: 5 mph N
Seattle expects the roof open, with 57 degrees and the wind in costing about 9% on home runs. The forecast carries an 18% rain chance as well. I want my pitching from this game.
Cleveland at Boston | Fenway Park | Overcast, 56F | Wind: 11 mph NE
Fenway gets the coldest temperature and the strongest wind of the day, 11 mph straight in. That knocks home runs down about 11% and scoring about 6%, and the 6.5 total tells you the books already priced it in.
T-Mobile has the only roof on this slate and it should stay open, so you're dealing with weather in all 6 games.
Model Bets
Under 7.5 (+100) | Los Angeles Angels at Seattle | Edge: +2.8%
The simulation has the Under at 50.6% and the devigged market at 47.8%. I like Bryan Woo in cash below, and the cold and the wind coming in at T-Mobile point the same direction.
Over 11 (-115) | Houston at Athletics | Edge: +2.3%
53.4% in the sim, 51.1% in the market. I'm stacking both sides of this game: Mason Barnett walks 5.82 BB/9, Peter Lambert's ERA looks better than his peripherals, and it's 88 degrees with the wind out.
New York Yankees -1.5 (+153) | Tampa Bay at New York Yankees | Edge: +1.3%
The sim covers at 39.1% versus 37.8% in the market, so this is the thinnest edge of the three. You're betting on Cam Schlittler to hold a Rays lineup that Vegas has at 2.54 runs, and I think he does.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) DK $6,500 | FD $4,200 vs Mason Barnett
He'll be the most popular bat on the slate, and I'm fine with that. Against righties, Alvarez: 198 wRC+, .312 ISO, 25.8% HR/FB, 56.6% hard contact. Barnett has let lefties post a .395 wOBA with 1.88 HR/9, and he hasn't reached 4 innings on average across his previous 5 starts, so Alvarez probably sees the Athletics' pen too. Their relievers have given lefties a 4.19 xFIP and 1.16 HR/9 over the past month. At $6,500 he tops the DraftKings hitter board, and $4,200 on FanDuel is $200 short of the most expensive bat there. I'm paying it on both sites.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) DK $4,700 | FD $3,200 vs Brady Singer
Baldwin leads off, and I think he's the best Atlanta bat against righties that people won't click. His line against them reads 149 wRC+, .195 ISO, 21.5% HR/FB, 51.0% hard contact and a 15.4% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters have beaten Singer up all year with a .394 wOBA, 2.16 HR/9, a 23.5% HR/FB and 43.2% hard contact. He's a mid-tier bat at $4,700 on DraftKings whose power plays well above that price.
Taylor Trammell (HOU) DK $3,400 | FD $2,400 vs Mason Barnett
I'm taking a low-percentage shot here, and his 31.9% strikeout rate against righties is the reason. He does bring real power from the eighth spot, with a 14.8% barrel rate and a .171 ISO. Barnett walks lefties at 6.38 BB/9, and a pitcher who's down 2-0 that often ends up grooving fastballs to get back into counts. At $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, close to the floor of FanDuel's board, Trammell is the bat that pays for Alvarez.
Stacks to Target
1. Houston Astros vs Mason Barnett (R) | Implied Total: 6.50 | ROO Score: 5.9/10 | CASH
Houston leads the slate at 6.5 implied runs, with Atlanta next at 4.94. Barnett's line: 7.27 ERA, 7.23 xFIP, 5.82 BB/9, 2.49 HR/9. I can't find anything good hiding in it. Righties have hit 36.8% of their fly balls out against him, while lefties get on base at a .400 clip. Houston's left-handed hitters bring a 120 wRC+ and 44.9% hard contact against righties, and Paredes gives you a 126 wRC+ from the right side. The Athletics' pen has a 3.26 ERA over the past 30 days, which I'd call fine, but Barnett won't pitch deep enough for it to matter early. The whole field will stack the Astros, and I'm joining them in cash.
Core pieces: Yordan Alvarez $6,500 (L), Jeremy Pena $5,200 (R), Isaac Paredes $4,600 (R), Christian Walker $4,000 (R), Daulton Varsho $3,700 (L)
2. Atlanta Braves vs Brady Singer (R) | Implied Total: 4.94 | ROO Score: 5.4/10 | CASH
Singer's 5.67 ERA sits above a 4.66 xFIP, so I'll grant him some bad luck. His trouble with lefties (2.16 HR/9, .394 wOBA) looks real to me. Atlanta can line up Baldwin, Olson, Harris and Yastrzemski against him, and the Braves' lefties have a 111 wRC+ with 42.8% hard contact against righties. Olson supplies the power at a .263 ISO and 28.1% HR/FB versus righties. Cincinnati's bullpen won't bail Singer out, with a 5.82 ERA and 1.55 HR/9 over the past 30 days and a 5.06 xFIP against lefties. You'll see plenty of Braves in cash lineups, and I think the floor justifies it.
Core pieces: Drake Baldwin $4,700 (L), Matt Olson $5,300 (L), Michael Harris $4,200 (L), Ronald Acuna $5,800 (R), Mike Yastrzemski $2,700 (L)
3. Athletics vs Peter Lambert (R) | Implied Total: 4.50 | ROO Score: 4.1/10 | GPP
Seattle rates a hair higher than the Athletics, but I'd rather play in 88 degrees than 57, and far fewer people will build around the Athletics than around Houston in the same game. Lambert's 3.70 ERA sits well under his 4.35 xFIP, and he's getting away with it against lefties, walking 5.05 BB/9 while stranding 88.6% of runners. I don't expect that strand rate to hold. The Athletics' lefties carry a 112 wRC+ against righties, led by Walton at 140. Houston's relievers struggle against lefties too, at a 4.83 xFIP and 1.61 HR/9 across the past 30 days. I'm using this as my contrarian stack at the hottest first pitch on the slate.
Core pieces: Lawrence Butler $4,200 (L), Donovan Walton $3,400 (L), Jeff McNeil $3,700 (L), Carlos Cortes $3,200 (L), Shea Langeliers $5,400 (R)
Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs SD | DK $10,500 | FD $10,500 | CASH
I trust Glasnow more than anyone else in cash tonight. His 3.48 ERA sits above a 2.89 xFIP and a 2.40 SIERA, and his 32.9% strikeout rate leads tonight's starters. The Padres sit at 2.93 implied runs. He costs $10,500 on both sites, but FanDuel's pitcher board stops at $11,000 and FanDuel lineups use a single pitcher, so the price hurts less on that site.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs LAA | DK $8,500 | FD $9,200 | CASH
The Angels have the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.46. Woo's ERA is 3.93, but his xFIP is 3.44, his SIERA is 3.06, and he's stranded only 67.0% of runners, so I expect the ERA to come down. He walks 1.94 BB/9 and has averaged 5.87 innings in his last 5 starts. Add 57 degrees and the wind in, and he costs $2,000 less than Glasnow on DraftKings.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs TB | DK $11,500 | FD $11,000 | GPP
Schlittler is a very good pitcher, with 31.3% strikeouts, a 2.71 xFIP and a 2.33 SIERA. His 1.94 ERA, though, leans on a .251 BABIP and an 82.4% strand rate that I don't think he keeps, and $11,500 makes him the priciest player on DraftKings. I'm not fading him against a Tampa Bay team implied for 2.54 runs. I'd just rather spend on Glasnow and Woo in cash and use Schlittler in tournaments, where he'll be the chalk arm.
Tyler Mahle (ATL) vs CIN | DK $7,700 | FD $9,400 | GPP
Mahle's 3.81 ERA and 3.76 xFIP match, so you don't need to adjust for luck either way. Cincinnati is implied for 2.56 runs, and Mahle has averaged 6.13 innings across his last 5 starts. His 8.31 K/9 limits the ceiling. The two sites disagree on him: DraftKings gives you a discount at $7,700, while FanDuel prices him near the aces at $9,400.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA), Positive Regression Candidate
Rodriguez has pitched better than his 5.99 ERA. A .327 BABIP and a 64.6% strand rate explain most of the distance to his 4.49 xFIP and 4.10 SIERA, and righties have managed only a 3.76 xFIP against him. Lefties still hit him hard at a .403 wOBA, so I won't call him fixed. Cold weather and an incoming breeze at T-Mobile give his numbers a good chance to catch up tonight, and that's why I kept Seattle out of my stacks.
Peter Lambert (HOU), Negative Regression Candidate
The Athletics stack above makes this case already, but it helps to see all the numbers in one place. Lambert's ERA is 3.70 against a 4.35 xFIP, and left-handed hitters have a .252 BABIP and an 88.6% strand rate against him while drawing 5.05 BB/9. I expect those lefties to cash in eventually, and I'd use Butler at $4,200 and Walton at $3,400 to catch it.
Final Thoughts
For cash, Glasnow and Woo cost $19,000 together, leaving $31,000 for eight bats. That covers Alvarez, Paredes and Walker from Houston plus Baldwin at $4,700, and Yastrzemski ($2,700) and Kim ($2,100) keep you in Atlanta's 4.94 implied runs at the cheap end of the roster.
Check Cleveland before lock. DraftKings prices two Guardians arms: Joey Cantillo at $7,500, whose last start came 17 days ago, and Daniel Espino at $5,500, who has averaged 1.5 innings over his last 5 appearances. I'd expect a short outing from Cantillo. That sounds good for Boston's bats, but Cleveland's bullpen owns a 2.57 ERA over the past 30 days, so I'm skipping that game on both sides. In Seattle, watch the 18% rain chance and whether the roof closes.
In tournaments, I'd stack Houston and the Athletics together. Both starters have real problems, the total is 11, and no other park tonight gets within 19 degrees of Sutter. Yainer Diaz at $3,900 is the Houston bat almost nobody will play. If you want to skip Glasnow, pair Schlittler with Mahle at $7,700.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.