Weather to Watch
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Overcast, 63F | Wind: 16 mph WNW
This is the best hitting setup on the slate. The wind is blowing out at 16 mph, and it helps lefties more than righties, which is good news for the top of the Dodgers order.
Houston at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Overcast, 80F | Wind: 11 mph SW
It's 80 degrees and an 11 mph breeze is blowing out in a small park. Right-handed power gets the biggest lift here.
Baltimore at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 70F | Wind: 16 mph NNE
A 16 mph crosswind cuts into right-handed fly balls. Lefties don't lose much, so if you play this game, play the left side.
Cleveland at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Overcast, 68F | Wind: 7 mph ESE
A light crosswind knocks a bit off left-handed fly balls. Kauffman was already a tough home run park, so I'm not chasing power in this one.
Colorado at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Overcast, 59F | Wind: 6 mph NE
It's 59 degrees, so the ball won't carry well. I'm still stacking the White Sox, but I'm not expecting any help from the weather.
Texas at Minnesota | Target Field | Light Drizzle, 65F | Wind: 3 mph SE
Light drizzle and almost no wind. The rain chance is listed at 0%, so I'm not worried about this one getting cut short.
Arizona at San Diego | Petco Park | Overcast, 74F | Wind: 8 mph NW
The wind is blowing in at 8 mph at a park that already suppresses power. Neither side makes my stack list.
Toronto, Miami, Milwaukee and Seattle all have roofs that can close, so I'm not putting much stock in those four forecasts.
Model Bets
Over 6.5 (-115) | Baltimore at New York Yankees | Edge: +6.8%
The sim puts the Over at 57.9% and the market sits at 51.1%, the biggest gap on the board. That's a lot of faith in a low total with a 16 mph crosswind at Yankee Stadium, and I'm not stacking either side of this game.
Over 9 (-106) | Houston at Athletics | Edge: +5.4%
The sim has this Over hitting 54.6% of the time against 49.2% from the market. It lines up with the Houston stack below, since Jacob Lopez gives up a lot of home runs to righties and Sutter is the warmest park on the slate tonight.
Over 7.5 (+104) | Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco | Edge: +2.7%
It's 49.6% in the sim against 46.9% in the market. The Dodgers are my top stack against Yunior Marte and the wind is blowing out at Oracle, so I'm not surprised the Over shows up here.
Toronto -1.5 (+163) | Cincinnati at Toronto | Edge: +1.5%
The sim gives Toronto a 37.9% chance to cover, against 36.4% from the market. The edge is small, but it fits the Kazuma Okamoto call against Nick Lodolo below.
San Francisco +1.5 (+176) | Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco | Edge: +1.3%
This bet cuts against my Dodgers stack, and I'd rather flag it up front. The sim has the Giants covering 36.0% of the time versus 34.6% from the market, which isn't much next to a 5.69 implied total for Los Angeles.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) DK $6,300 | FD $4,100 vs Yunior Marte
I'm paying up for Ohtani tonight. He's at a 146 wRC+ and a .233 ISO against righties with a 16.5% barrel rate, and he gets a 16 mph wind headed out at Oracle. Marte has a 7.45 BB/9 against lefties in a small sample, and a guy who keeps running deep counts has to throw strikes eventually, and that usually means a fastball over the middle. That's the pitch Ohtani hits out. He's priced as a stud on both sites, and $4,100 is nearly the top of FanDuel's hitter board.
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) DK $4,100 | FD $3,300 vs Nick Lodolo
DraftKings has Okamoto priced like a mid-tier bat, and his numbers against lefties say he's more than that. He's at a 135 wRC+ and a .269 ISO against southpaws, with a 17.3% barrel rate. Lodolo has allowed 1.82 HR/9 and a 21.9% HR/FB to righties. His 3.74 BB/9 against them matters too, because he keeps getting into hitter's counts and has to come into the zone. On FanDuel, $3,300 is closer to the upper end of a tighter price range, so I like him more on DK.
Nelson Velazquez (HOU) DK $3,100 | FD $2,400 vs Jacob Lopez
Velazquez is the cheap way into the best home run weather of the night. He carries a 13.0% barrel rate and a .254 ISO, and righties have taken Lopez deep at a 2.05 HR/9 clip. He also carries a 4.43 BB/9 against them, and that many deep counts means a lot of pitches that have to catch the plate. The catch is that Velazquez bats ninth, so he might get one fewer trip to the plate than the top of the order. At $3,100 that's a trade I'll make.
Stacks to Target
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Yunior Marte (R) | Implied Total: 5.69 | ROO Score: 6.5/10 | Cash
Los Angeles leads the slate at 5.69 implied runs. Marte isn't a normal starter: he's thrown 19.1 innings for San Francisco with a 13.3% K rate and a 10.8% walk rate, and his last 5 outings have averaged 4.2 innings. That puts the Giants bullpen in the game early, and it sits north of a 4.1 xFIP in both splits. The Dodgers lefties are the play, posting a 122 wRC+ against righties as a group, with Freddie Freeman at 141 and Max Muncy at 132. Will Smith (131 wRC+ against righties) is the righty I'd add. The field will be here, but it's the safest ceiling on the board and I'm happy to eat the chalk in cash.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,300 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,300 (L), Max Muncy $4,600 (L), Will Smith $4,400 (R), Mookie Betts $5,500 (R)
2. Houston Astros vs Jacob Lopez (L) | Implied Total: 5.53 | ROO Score: 4.5/10 | Cash
Sutter Health Park is the warmest outdoor park tonight, and Lopez is the kind of pitcher you want to face there. He's carrying a 5.72 ERA, 1.70 HR/9 and 4.33 BB/9, and righties have it even better: a .376 wOBA and 2.05 HR/9. I'm building this almost entirely right-handed, since Houston's lefties post an 80 wRC+ against southpaws. That means I'm skipping Yordan Alvarez at $6,500 and taking Jose Altuve (130 wRC+ against lefties) and Isaac Paredes (122) instead. The Athletics bullpen is a mixed bag, so the real edge is the first two times through. Houston will be popular, but the righties are priced low enough that it doesn't wreck the rest of a cash build.
Core pieces: Jose Altuve $4,500 (R), Isaac Paredes $4,700 (R), Christian Walker $4,100 (R), Jeremy Pena $5,200 (R), Nelson Velazquez $3,100 (R)
3. Chicago White Sox vs Tomoyuki Sugano (R) | Implied Total: 5.35 | ROO Score: 5.4/10 | GPP
Chicago is third on the board in implied runs, yet this lineup should be far less popular than the two above it. Sugano's 5.38 ERA comes with a 14.4% K rate and 41% hard contact, and lefties have hit him for 2.31 HR/9 and a .367 wOBA. It's 59 degrees at Rate Field, so some of that power gets knocked down. That's the knock on this stack. Tristan Peters (127 wRC+ against righties) is the lefty to use, and Miguel Vargas (125) is the righty with real numbers against same-side pitching. Colorado's bullpen behind Sugano sits north of a 4.4 xFIP. This is my tournament stack.
Core pieces: Miguel Vargas $5,400 (R), Tristan Peters $3,300 (L), Colson Montgomery $3,900 (L), Chase Meidroth $4,000 (R)
Pitchers
Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs SF | DK $11,000 | FD $10,700 | CASH
San Francisco is implied for 1.79 runs, and nothing else on the slate is under 2.6. Skubal: 2.86 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 29.5% K, 4.5% BB. The ERA matches what he's doing underneath, so there's no luck to discount. He's the top price on both sites and he's chalk, but I'm not getting cute here.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs MIN | DK $9,700 | FD $9,500 | CASH
His 3.87 ERA sits about a run above a 2.85 xFIP, and his 30.4% K rate is still near the top of the board. That gap reads as bad luck to me. Minnesota's lefties are at a 105 wRC+ against righties, which doesn't scare me. deGrom figures to be the chalk arm of the night, and pairing him with Skubal on DK costs $20,700. On FanDuel he's $1,200 cheaper than Skubal, which makes the pairing easier to fit there.
Sean Burke (CWS) vs COL | DK $8,500 | FD $8,800 | CASH
Colorado is implied for 2.65 runs, the second-lowest number on the board. Burke has a 25.6% K rate and a 3.40 ERA, with split xFIPs of 3.80 against lefties and 3.94 against righties. A 78.8% strand rate is doing a little work for him, but not enough to worry me in this spot. He's the salary relief that makes the Dodgers stack fit on DK, though FanDuel prices him higher at $8,800.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs KC | DK $9,700 | FD $10,500 | GPP
Williams has the highest K rate of any starter on this slate at 33.5%, and his 3.63 ERA runs a full run above a 2.62 xFIP. The concern is righties, who've hit him for 1.78 HR/9. Kansas City's implied total is around 3.1, and Jac Caglianone is the one lefty bat I'd worry about. At $10,500 he's the second-most expensive arm on FanDuel, so I'd rather have him on DK at $9,700.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs SEA | DK $9,400 | FD $9,800 | GPP
Seattle's righties post an 84 wRC+ against lefties and its lefties are at 86, so there's no platoon edge to fear. Detmers has a 28.4% K rate, a 3.47 ERA and a 3.20 xFIP, and it's 53 degrees at T-Mobile Park. Vegas has Seattle around 3.6 runs. He'll be well under the ownership of Skubal and deGrom, and I'd call him my favorite tournament arm tonight.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Grant Holmes (ATL), Negative Regression Candidate
Holmes has a 3.49 ERA, but an 18.2% K rate and a 9.4% walk rate don't support it. His xFIP sits at 4.60 against lefties and 4.19 against righties, and an 82.5% strand rate plus a .262 BABIP are propping up the surface line. Lefties have a .233 BABIP against him, which won't hold up. Miami is the team that should benefit: Kyle Stowers (14.4% barrel rate) and Griffin Conine (16.8%) are both lefties at $3,500 each.
Joe Ryan (MIN), Positive Regression Candidate
Ryan's 3.84 ERA is running well ahead of a 2.86 SIERA, and his 70.3% strand rate is on the low side. A 25.7% K rate with a 5.1% walk rate usually lands in the low 3s. I'm not paying $9,700 for him against Texas with deGrom at the same price on the other side, but I'd expect better results from here.
Final Thoughts
For cash, I'm starting with Skubal and Burke, which comes to $19,500 in pitching on DK. That leaves room for Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy from the Dodgers, plus Okamoto at $4,100 and Velazquez at $3,100. You'll have about $7,100 left for the last 3 spots, so you'll need a couple of near-minimum bats.
Eury Perez threw an inning of relief on Tuesday and is listed as Miami's starter tonight, so check whether he's on a normal pitch count before you play Atlanta bats or fade them. DraftKings lists Will Warren for the Yankees while other starter info points to Brendan Beck, so confirm the Yankees starter before building around Baltimore. Minnesota has light drizzle in the forecast, but nothing that looks like a delay.
In tournaments, the White Sox are the stack I'd play most, since they're implied for over 5 runs and should draw far less attention than Los Angeles or Houston. Gavin Williams and Detmers are the two arms I'd use to get away from the Skubal and deGrom crowd. If you want a cheap one-off, the Miami lefties against Holmes are $3,500 each and fit anywhere.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.