Weather to Watch
Cleveland at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Overcast, 71F | Wind: 9 mph SE
The crosswind helps righties a little and takes a bit away from lefties. There's a 30% rain chance, so check the radar before lock.
Colorado at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Clear, 59F | Wind: 7 mph NE
Clear and 59 degrees, so right-handed fly balls lose about 11% of their home run odds. I'm stacking Chicago anyway, because the pitcher matters more than the temperature tonight.
St. Louis at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Overcast, 60F | Wind: 5 mph E
The roof is expected to be open, and 60 degrees with a light breeze blowing in doesn't do hitters any favors. Home run odds drop about 7% on both sides.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Citizens Bank Park | Light Drizzle, 58F | Wind: 13 mph NNW
Worst hitting weather anywhere tonight. There's a 13 mph breeze coming in off the outfield plus drizzle, and right-handed home run odds fall by more than a quarter. Both starters get a real boost from it.
Arizona at San Diego | Petco Park | Overcast, 78F | Wind: 7 mph NW
It's warm, but a light wind blowing in cancels most of that out. Call it neutral in a park that already favors pitchers.
Houston at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Overcast, 80F | Wind: 7 mph SW
Best place to hit on the whole slate. It's 80 degrees, the breeze is headed out, and home run odds go up about 11% for lefties and righties alike.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 56F | Wind: 6 mph N
Seattle should play with the roof open, and that isn't good news for the bats. It's 56 degrees and the breeze is coming in, which knocks roughly 11% off home run odds.
No true domes tonight. Milwaukee and Seattle both have roofs, but both should be open, so those forecasts count.
Model Bets
Over 9 (-101) | Houston at Athletics | Edge: +5.0%
The sim cashes this Over 53.1% of the time, and the market is at 48.1%. That lines up with what I like tonight: Jack Perkins is carrying a 5.93 ERA for the Athletics, and Sutter Health Park has the best hitting weather tonight.
Over 7 (-105) | Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Edge: +2.4%
This one cuts against my read, so I'll flag it. The sim is at 51.3% against 48.9% from the market, but Citizens Bank has a 13 mph wind blowing in with drizzle, and I like Griffin Jax on the Tampa Bay side below.
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+158) | Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Edge: +1.6%
The sim gives Tampa Bay a 38.6% chance to win by 2 or more, with the market at 37.0%. Jose Urquidy is making his first start since August 24, and the Phillies bullpen behind him sits near a 5.7 xFIP, so a lopsided late score isn't hard to picture.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Jac Caglianone (KC) DK $5,100 | FD $2,800 vs Tanner Bibee
Lefties have given Bibee trouble all year, and Caglianone is the Kansas City lefty I want against him. Left-handed hitters have taken Bibee deep at a 1.89 HR/9 clip with a 23.9% HR/FB. Caglianone against righties: 141 wRC+, .212 ISO, 58.6% hard contact. The crosswind at Kauffman shaves a little off lefty fly balls, and that's the only thing working against him. He's an expensive bat on DK at $5,100, but $2,800 sits in the bottom half of FanDuel's $2,000 to $4,300 hitter board, so he's an easier click there.
Randal Grichuk (CWS) DK $3,700 | FD $2,500 vs Jose Quintana
Grichuk's numbers against lefties are elite, and DraftKings still has him priced as a value bat. He's at a 177 wRC+ and a .317 ISO against southpaws, with 10 home runs in 173 PA and 55.6% hard contact. Quintana strikes out 11% of hitters, so Grichuk should put a lot of balls in play. The cold at Rate Field will take a few feet off his fly balls. At $3,700, I don't care much.
Christian Walker (HOU) DK $4,000 | FD $2,900 vs Jack Perkins
Walker is my mid-tier way into Sutter Health Park without paying for Yordan Alvarez. He's hit 22 home runs against righties with a .193 ISO and a 42.2% hard-hit rate. Perkins carries a 3.75 BB/9. When he falls behind, he ends up throwing fastballs over the plate just to get back in the count. Righties have hit him for 1.56 HR/9, and the weather adds about 11% to right-handed home run odds tonight. He bats sixth, which is the one knock.
Stacks to Target
1. Chicago White Sox vs Jose Quintana (L) | Implied Total: 5.72 | ROO Score: 5.6/10 | Cash
Nobody on the slate is implied for more runs than Chicago, and it's not close. Quintana: 5.40 ERA, 5.70 xFIP, 11.1% K, 1.60 HR/9. Righties have a .358 wOBA against him with a 3.64 K/9, so righties rarely go down on strikes. Chicago's right-handed hitters post a 115 wRC+ and a .201 ISO against lefties, and the three I want are all crushing southpaws: Miguel Vargas (154 wRC+), Grichuk (177) and Chase Meidroth (181). Quintana's last 5 starts averaged about 4 innings, which brings a Rockies bullpen near a 4.9 xFIP into the game early. The cold keeps me from calling it a lock. Everyone will have it, and in cash I'm on it too.
Core pieces: Miguel Vargas $5,700 (R), Randal Grichuk $3,700 (R), Chase Meidroth $4,300 (R), Munetaka Murakami $5,200 (L)
2. Houston Astros vs Jack Perkins (R) | Implied Total: 4.95 | ROO Score: 5.1/10 | Cash
Perkins has allowed 20 home runs in about 115 innings, and tonight he pitches in the hottest park on this slate. He does miss bats, and a 25.2% K rate is real. But lefties have a .352 wOBA against him with a 4.38 BB/9, and Houston's lefties post a 122 wRC+ and a .208 ISO against righties. Yordan Alvarez leads that group at 197. Isaac Paredes (128 wRC+ against righties) and Walker are the righties I'd pair with him. The Athletics bullpen checks in near a 4.7 xFIP, so there's no break once Perkins leaves. Alvarez will be one of the most popular bats of the night. I'm paying for him anyway.
Core pieces: Yordan Alvarez $6,600 (L), Isaac Paredes $4,800 (R), Christian Walker $4,000 (R), Jeremy Pena $5,400 (R)
3. Athletics vs Hayden Wesneski (R) | Implied Total: 3.55 | ROO Score: 3.2/10 | GPP
At 3.55 implied runs I'm keeping this to tournaments, and I'm betting on the park. Wesneski's 3.50 ERA sits about half a run under his xFIP, helped by a .257 BABIP, and he's striking out only 18.7% of hitters. Lefties have made 41.5% hard contact against him with a 15.8% HR/FB, and the Athletics' lefties post a 113 wRC+ against righties. Lawrence Butler (108 wRC+, 46.4% hard) and Donovan Walton (143) are the lefties, and Zack Gelof (118) is the righty I'd keep. Houston's bullpen isn't a lockdown unit at a 4.5 xFIP. You'll have these bats mostly to yourself, which is what I want in a tournament.
Core pieces: Lawrence Butler $4,400 (L), Donovan Walton $3,600 (L), Zack Gelof $5,900 (R), Shea Langeliers $5,500 (R)
Pitchers
Kade Anderson (SEA) vs LAA | DK $7,700 | FD $8,500 | CASH
Los Angeles is implied for 2.71 runs, the lowest number on the slate. Anderson's sample is only 6 starts, but it's a clean one: 3.72 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA, 2.24 BB/9. His 4.21 ERA runs a touch high for that profile, and I'll take that at this price. He'll be popular, and on DK I don't mind. FanDuel wants $8,500 for him, $800 more than DraftKings, so I'm mostly using him on DK.
Davis Martin (CWS) vs COL | DK $6,300 | FD $7,200 | CASH
Colorado is right behind the Angels at 2.78 implied runs. Martin isn't flashy, and a 3.85 ERA next to a 3.97 xFIP says there's no luck to strip out. His 12.8% swinging-strike rate is better than his 19.8% K rate suggests. The concern is length, since his last 5 starts have averaged 3.6 innings. At $6,300 I can live with that as a second arm, because it's what lets you fit Alvarez and the Chicago bats.
Griffin Jax (TB) vs PHI | DK $8,600 | FD $8,600 | GPP
Jax: 25.6% K, 3.34 xFIP, 2.99 SIERA. No starter on this slate beats that xFIP or SIERA, and he gets the best pitching weather tonight at Citizens Bank. The catch is length. He's a converted reliever whose last 5 starts averaged 4.5 innings, so I can't trust him in cash. In a tournament the strikeout upside is worth it, and he's the same $8,600 on both sites.
Walker Buehler (SD) vs ARI | DK $6,800 | FD $7,400 | GPP
Buehler's 4.56 ERA is running about half a run higher than a 4.00 xFIP, and his 3.92 SIERA says the same thing. He's getting 47.1% ground balls, and Petco with a light wind blowing in makes it tough to beat him with fly balls. Arizona is implied for about 3.6 runs. I'd expect him to go overlooked at $6,800, and he's a cheap way to be different from the Anderson crowd.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Michael Wacha (KC), Negative Regression Candidate
Wacha's 3.34 ERA looks great until you see a .247 BABIP and a 79.9% strand rate under it. His xFIP is 4.20 and his K rate is 19.6%, so this is a low-4s pitcher who's been lucky. Righties have hit him for 1.98 HR/9 with a 25.4% HR/FB, and the crosswind at Kauffman gives right-handed fly balls a small lift tonight. He's the most expensive arm on the slate at $9,400 and should be one of the most popular. Cleveland is at about 4.6 implied runs, and I'd rather be on those bats than on Wacha.
Dustin May (MIL), Positive Regression Candidate
May's 4.68 ERA comes with a .320 BABIP and a 67.5% strand rate, and both should even out. The stuff underneath is better: a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.55 SIERA with a 22.9% K rate, and against righties he has a 1.21 BB/9. St. Louis is implied for 2.79 runs, so the matchup works. The problem is innings: he's averaged 3.7 per start over his last 5. At $6,700 he's a fine GPP arm, but I wouldn't use him in cash.
Final Thoughts
My cash build opens with Anderson and Martin for $14,000 combined on DK. Out of the remaining $36,000, I'm taking Vargas, Grichuk and Meidroth from Chicago, plus Alvarez, Caglianone and Walker. You'll have about $6,600 left for the last 2 spots, which is enough for another Chicago or Houston bat.
DraftKings has both Jose Quintana and Ryan Feltner priced at $5,800 for Colorado, so confirm Quintana is the starter before you lock in the Chicago stack. Ryne Nelson is listed for Arizona, but he hasn't started a game since June 15 and he pitched in relief on Friday, so expect a short night and the Arizona bullpen early. Urquidy is in a similar spot for Philadelphia, making his first start since August 24. Kansas City has a 30% rain chance.
In tournaments, the Athletics against Wesneski are my stack, and mixing a couple of those bats with the Houston side of the same game gets you both halves of the best weather on the slate. Jax and Buehler are my pivots off Anderson. For a cheap single bat, Lazaro Montes is $3,600 with a 25% barrel rate in a small 41-PA sample against Ryan Johnson, a righty who's allowed 1.71 HR/9.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.