Weather to Watch
Houston at Athletics | Sutter Health Park | Clear, 73F | Wind: 7 mph Out
It's 73 degrees in Sacramento and a light breeze is blowing out at a park that plays small to begin with. That's the best home run setup on the board, and it belongs to the most popular stack of the day.
Colorado at Chicago White Sox | Rate Field | Clear, 63F | Wind: 7 mph Crosswind
Cool and clear with the wind running across the field. I'd knock a little off the fly balls here, though it won't change how I feel about the White Sox bats.
Pittsburgh at Detroit | Comerica Park | Clear, 75F | Wind: 9 mph Out
75 degrees with 9 mph blowing out is about as friendly as Comerica gets. It's also the one thing I don't love about Jared Jones today.
Cleveland at Kansas City | Kauffman Stadium | Overcast, 72F | Wind: 1 mph Calm
Gray skies and no wind, so Kauffman plays straight today and the pitching matchup decides everything.
St. Louis at Milwaukee | American Family Field | Overcast, 68F | Wind: 7 mph Crosswind
The roof should be open, but a crosswind shaves a bit off fly balls. That's a non-factor next to who's on the mound for Milwaukee.
Texas at Minnesota | Target Field | Partly Cloudy, 67F | Wind: 2 mph Calm
67 degrees and still. I wouldn't move anyone up or down for it.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia | Citizens Bank Park | Overcast, 63F | Wind: 17 mph In
17 mph blowing in at 63 degrees kills a lot of fly balls, and there's a small chance of rain on top of it, so I'll pass on Phillies power.
Arizona at San Diego | Petco Park | Overcast, 81F | Wind: 5 mph Crosswind
81 degrees is warm for Petco. The ball should carry a little better than usual, which gives the Arizona bats a small bump.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco | Oracle Park | Clear, 64F | Wind: 14 mph Out
Oracle doesn't often get 14 mph blowing out. The Dodgers already lead the slate in implied runs, and today the park won't hold them back the way it usually does.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle | T-Mobile Park | Overcast, 59F | Wind: 7 mph In
59 degrees with the wind in at a pitcher's park. Logan Gilbert gets a lot of help here.
Cincinnati at Toronto | Rogers Centre | Clear, 76F | Wind: 12 mph In
If the roof is open, it's 76 degrees with 12 mph blowing in. That takes some shine off the Toronto bats against a lefty they should hit.
Two games are under a roof today: Cubs and Red Sox at Tropicana Field, Braves and Marlins at loanDepot park.
Model Bets
Over 7.5 (-110) | Chicago Cubs at Boston | Edge: +2.6%
The simulation has this Over at 52.6% while the market sits at a flat 50%. Patrick Sandoval's .379 BABIP says he's been unlucky on balls in play, but DraftKings has Julian Aguiar priced for Chicago while other listings have Shota Imanaga starting, so check who takes the ball before you track this one.
Athletics +1.5 (-102) | Houston at Athletics | Edge: +2.1%
The simulation gives the Athletics a 50.4% chance to cover against a 48.3% market. That cuts against my top stack below, and I'm stacking Houston anyway, because the Astros can put up a big number and still only win by one.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) DK $6,700 | FD $4,300 vs Seth Johnson
Yordan's my power anchor today. He's carrying a .308 ISO with a 17.2% barrel rate and 57% hard contact, and he gets Sutter Health Park with the wind blowing out. Johnson has allowed a .364 wOBA and 50% hard contact to lefties. $4,300 on FanDuel is one of the biggest hitter prices on that site, and I'd still pay it.
Will Smith (LAD) DK $4,600 | FD $2,800 vs Carson Seymour
Smith hits cleanup for the offense with the highest implied total on the slate, and DraftKings lists him at a mid-tier catcher price. Seymour's given up a 1.76 HR/9 to right-handed hitters with a 25% HR/FB rate, and he's probably gone after an inning or two anyway. Smith's 14.7% barrel rate plays at Oracle with 14 mph blowing out. At $2,800 on FanDuel, he's a bargain for a cleanup bat in a 5.9-run spot.
Jo Adell (CLE) DK $3,700 | FD $2,900 vs Daniel Lynch
Lynch's ERA hides how hard right-handed hitters have hit him. Righties have a 1.48 HR/9 and 18.6% HR/FB off him with 43.5% hard contact, and his 3.88 BB/9 against them means he's falling behind and throwing strikes in hitter's counts, which is where home run pitches come from. Adell brings a .266 ISO and an 11.6% barrel rate from the cleanup spot. At $3,700 he's a value bat with real power.
Stacks to Target
1. Houston vs Seth Johnson (R) | Implied Total: 5.76 | ROO Score: 6.1/10 | Cash
Johnson's the listed starter, but he's pitched in relief twice this week and the Athletics don't have an obvious long man lined up behind him, so this looks like a bullpen day, which suits me. In 32 innings he's got a 6.19 ERA and a 5.06 BB/9, and the relievers behind him carry a 4.95 xFIP. Johnson against lefties: .364 wOBA, 50% hard contact. That puts Alvarez and Spence in a great spot. Houston's the most popular stack on the slate for good reason, and I'm fine eating that chalk in cash.
Core pieces: Yordan Alvarez $6,700 (L), Jeremy Pena $5,600 (R), Christian Walker $4,400 (R), Cam Smith $4,100 (R), Lucas Spence $2,800 (L)
2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Carson Seymour (R) | Implied Total: 5.90 | ROO Score: 6.0/10 | Cash
No team on the slate has a higher implied total. Seymour worked 1 inning in relief on 9/22 and again on 9/26, so he's opening, and the Giants bullpen behind him has a 5.63 xFIP. Lefties have tagged him for a .398 wOBA, and his 5.4 BB/9 keeps runners on for the power bats. Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy and Tucker all hit from the left side, and the wind's blowing out at Oracle. Expect this one to be chalky too, and I'd still play it in cash.
Core pieces: Shohei Ohtani $6,600 (L), Freddie Freeman $5,200 (L), Will Smith $4,600 (R), Max Muncy $4,600 (L), Kyle Tucker $5,000 (L)
3. Chicago White Sox vs Kyle Freeland (L) | Implied Total: 5.41 | ROO Score: 5.8/10 | GPP
Freeland's 6.59 ERA looks like a free pass, but his 4.25 xFIP says he's closer to an ordinary back-end starter than a disaster. The real issue is right-handed hitters. Righties vs Freeland: .406 wOBA, 2.31 HR/9, 48% hard contact. The White Sox can run five righties in the top seven spots. Colorado's pen (5.03 xFIP) offers no relief once he's out. The 63-degree crosswind trims the ceiling a bit. This stack should come in lighter than Houston and the Dodgers, and it's my tournament pivot.
Core pieces: Miguel Vargas $5,600 (R), Randal Grichuk $3,600 (R), Chase Meidroth $4,400 (R), Brenton Doyle $3,000 (R), Tommy Pham $2,800 (R)
Pitchers
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs STL | DK $11,800 | FD $10,000 | CASH
There's no such thing as a lock in baseball, but Misiorowski against the Cardinals is close. He's striking out 38% of hitters with a 13.1 K/9, and St. Louis has the lowest implied total on the slate at 2.32 runs. His ERA sits a bit under his 2.09 xFIP with a .240 BABIP, so there's some luck in the surface line, but you can't fake a 38% K rate. He's the priciest arm on DraftKings, but FanDuel has him at $10,000, which is cheaper than Wheeler and makes him an easier fit there.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs TB | DK $10,600 | FD $10,700 | CASH
Wheeler's the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and the second-priciest on DraftKings. The weather helps him: 17 mph blowing in at Citizens Bank Park, with Tampa Bay implied for 3.11 runs. Righties have a .244 wOBA against him, and his 2.88 xFIP backs up the 3.06 ERA. Pairing him with Misiorowski on DraftKings costs $22,400, which means a punt or two elsewhere. I think it's worth it in cash.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs LAA | DK $9,800 | FD $9,400 | CASH
If you can't fit both aces, Gilbert's the cheaper way in. The Angels are implied for 2.95 runs, it's 59 degrees with the wind blowing in, and a 26.7% K rate is plenty of floor for cash. His 3.81 ERA runs higher than a 3.34 xFIP, so you aren't paying for a mirage. Plenty of people will play him, and I'm one of them.
Jared Jones (PIT) vs DET | DK $8,600 | FD $9,500 | GPP
Jones has the strikeout upside to win a tournament at $8,600. He's at a 29.4% K rate with a 3.15 xFIP, under his 3.89 ERA, so the results have lagged the stuff. Detroit's implied for 3.47 runs. The wind blowing out at Comerica is the risk, and it's why I'd keep him out of cash. FanDuel prices him at $9,500, much closer to the aces, so he's the better buy on DraftKings.
Dean Kremer (MIN) vs TEX | DK $8,000 | FD $8,000 | GPP
Kremer's 4.98 ERA is ugly, and I'm playing him anyway. A third of the fly balls he's allowed have left the park, which won't hold, and his 3.48 SIERA with a 24% K rate says he's pitched a lot better than the results. Texas is implied for 4.53, so this is a dart, not a floor play. Target Field is calm at 67 degrees, and he should come in with very little ownership.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Kyle Freeland (COL), Positive Regression Candidate
We covered Freeland in the White Sox stack, and the long-run read is kinder than today's matchup read. He's got a 6.59 ERA against a 4.25 xFIP, a .336 BABIP and a 62.8% LOB rate. He's been unlucky on balls in play and with runners on. It doesn't save him against a righty-heavy lineup today, but I don't expect that ERA to hold.
Nick Martinez (TB), Negative Regression Candidate
Martinez's 2.95 ERA doesn't match anything underneath it. The xFIP sits at 4.25, he's stranding 83.1% of runners with a .260 BABIP, and a 15.3% K rate leaves him very little margin once balls start finding holes. The Phillies should be the team that benefits. The catch is 17 mph blowing in at Citizens Bank Park, so I'd take a couple of Philly bats in tournaments rather than a full stack.
Final Thoughts
Cash starts with Misiorowski. If you can make the money work, Wheeler's the second arm; if not, Gilbert saves you $800 on DraftKings. From there I'm building around Alvarez and Will Smith, and Lucas Spence at $2,800 is the cheap bat that fits the Houston stack.
Two things to check before lock. DraftKings has Julian Aguiar priced for the Cubs while other listings have Shota Imanaga starting, so I'm staying off that game until it's sorted. Detroit has both River Ryan and Jack Flaherty priced, and Flaherty's last logged start was 79 days ago, so whoever takes the ball for Detroit is likely on a short leash and the Tigers bullpen should be in play early. Toronto also has Max Scherzer and Spencer Miles both priced, so I'd skip Cincinnati bats.
The White Sox are my favorite way to get different while still buying a 5.4-run offense. Kremer at $8,000 frees up salary for a Houston or Dodgers stack in the same lineup, and I'd sprinkle Adell and the Cleveland righties against Lynch as one-offs.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.