Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Wild Card round opens today with 4 games. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work before this slate.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Chris Sale goes from about 6.5 projected innings to 5.6. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Philadelphia at Atlanta | Truist Park | Clear, 80F | Wind: 2 mph Calm
It's 80 degrees with almost no wind for the early game, so fly balls get a small bump. That won't matter much with Chris Sale and Jesus Luzardo on the mound.
Boston at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Clear, 63F | Wind: 4 mph Crosswind
63 degrees, 90% humidity and a light crosswind. Home run odds drop a few points, and lefties lose a little more than righties do.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego | Petco Park | Clear, 74F | Wind: 5 mph Out
Petco plays big at night, but 74 degrees with 5 mph blowing out softens that. Of the three outdoor games, this is the best place to hit, and it helps the Padres stack below.
The roof should be closed at Daikin Park, so Houston and Chicago play at 73 degrees with nothing to check.
Model Bets
Philadelphia +1.5 (-135) | Philadelphia at Atlanta | Edge: +5.4%
The simulation has the Phillies covering 60.3% of the time, while the market says 54.9%. With Sale and Luzardo both starting, I expect a low-scoring game that stays close late.
Over 6.5 (+100) | Boston at New York Yankees | Edge: +4.0%
The Over hits 51.8% of the time in the simulation, and the market has it at 47.8%. That works against my Payton Tolle cash play, and I'm keeping Tolle anyway. The late runs I'd worry about come from the Yankees bullpen, which has a 6.07 xFIP against lefties.
Under 6.5 (+100) | Philadelphia at Atlanta | Edge: +2.8%
50.6% in the simulation, 47.8% in the market. It fits with Sale at the top of my pitcher list and a Phillies team implied for just 2.37 runs.
Over 7 (-119) | Chicago Cubs at San Diego | Edge: +2.2%
This is the smallest edge of the four, 54.0% to 51.8%, and FanDuel has since moved the total to 7.5, so there's even less of it at today's number. It agrees with the Padres stack against Matthew Boyd.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Fernando Tatis (SD) DK $5,900 | FD $3,700 vs Matthew Boyd
Tatis is the premium bat I'm paying for. He leads off with a .273 ISO, a 12.7% barrel rate and 50% hard contact, and Boyd has given up 1.36 HR/9 and a 17.3% HR/FB rate to righties. Boyd also strikes out only 18% of right-handed hitters, so Tatis should get plenty of pitches to drive. $5,900 is a stud price on DraftKings, but FanDuel's hitter board tops out at $4,400, so $3,700 there isn't a stretch.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) DK $5,100 | FD $3,500 vs AJ Blubaugh
Murakami's 21.2% barrel rate is the highest on the slate. The next-best hitters sit at 16.7%. Blubaugh is an opener who averages about 1.5 innings, so most of Murakami's at bats should come against a Houston bullpen with a 5.52 xFIP and 1.92 HR/9 against lefties. Add a .302 ISO and 55% hard contact from the cleanup spot. $5,100 is expensive, and I'll pay it.
Roman Anthony (BOS) DK $3,900 | FD $2,900 vs Cam Schlittler
I'm less sure about this one. Schlittler is tough on lefties, with a .250 wOBA and 12.4 K/9 against them, but he only got through 3 innings on 9/24, and the Yankees pen behind him has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. Anthony leads off with a 14.9% barrel rate and 55% hard contact, and a lefty only needs the short porch in right. 63 degrees takes a bit off, but $3,900 is a value price for a bat that can hit one out in the late innings.
Stacks to Target
1. Chicago White Sox vs AJ Blubaugh (R) | Implied Total: 3.94 | ROO Score: 4.1/10 | GPP
Every one of Blubaugh's 64 appearances this year has come in relief, so treat this as a Houston bullpen game. Tatsuya Imai is also priced for Houston, but his last start was 64 days ago and his only work since was a single relief inning on 9/27, so I wouldn't count on length from him. If he does go long, that's fine too: lefties have a .322 wOBA and 48% hard contact against him, and his 6.1 BB/9 means a lot of hitter's counts where Murakami and Teel can sit on a fastball. The Houston pen has a 5.52 xFIP against lefties, and Chicago's lefties carry a 105 wRC+ against righties. The field should lean toward Houston's side of this game, so this is my tournament stack.
Core pieces: Munetaka Murakami $5,100 (L), Kyle Teel $3,300 (L), Colson Montgomery $3,500 (L), Andrew Benintendi $3,100 (L), Miguel Vargas $5,400 (R)
2. Houston vs Hagen Smith (L) | Implied Total: 4.56 | ROO Score: 3.9/10 | Cash
Houston leads the board at 4.56 implied runs. Hagen Smith is nasty for an inning or two, with a 15.2 K/9 against righties in a small sample, but he's averaging about 1.5 innings and his 6.4 BB/9 against them runs his pitch count up fast. Erick Fedde is also priced for Chicago and threw 2 2/3 innings in relief on 9/23, so he looks like the long man. Righties vs Fedde: .348 wOBA, 2.22 HR/9, 24.2% HR/FB. That's where a righty-heavy Houston lineup does its damage. Everyone will be on Houston, and I'll be there too in cash.
Core pieces: Isaac Paredes $4,300 (R), Jose Altuve $4,100 (R), Christian Walker $3,700 (R), Cam Smith $3,100 (R), Yordan Alvarez $6,000 (L)
3. San Diego vs Matthew Boyd (L) | Implied Total: 4.03 | ROO Score: 3.0/10 | Cash
Atlanta ranks a bit higher, but I moved San Diego ahead of it. Atlanta's righties have an 85 wRC+ against lefties this year, and Luzardo holds righties to a .306 wOBA. Boyd's a much softer target. He strikes out 18.5% of hitters, his 4.14 xFIP says the 3.92 ERA is about right, and righties have a .313 wOBA against him. The Padres can run seven righties out there, and the Cubs pen behind Boyd has a 4.02 xFIP against right-handed bats. This stack will be popular, and I'm still on it.
Core pieces: Fernando Tatis $5,900 (R), Manny Machado $4,900 (R), Ty France $3,900 (R), Austin Hays $3,000 (R), Luis Campusano $3,400 (R)
Pitchers
Chris Sale (ATL) vs PHI | DK $10,000 | FD $10,500 | CASH
Sale costs $10,000, more than any other pitcher on DraftKings, and he's worth it. He's striking out 30.9% of hitters, and Philadelphia's 2.37 implied runs are the lowest on the slate. His 2.16 ERA runs a little under a 2.71 xFIP, but a .304 BABIP says he isn't getting lucky on balls in play. Lefties have a .266 wOBA against him, so Schwarber at the top of the order doesn't scare me. He'll be the most popular pitcher on the board, and he should be.
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs NYY | DK $8,800 | FD $9,600 | CASH
Tolle is my second cash arm, and he's $1,200 cheaper than Sale on DraftKings. His 3.04 ERA matches a 3.14 xFIP, and a 2.70 SIERA with a 28.4% K rate says there's upside past that. The Yankees are implied for 3.63 runs, and 63 degrees at Yankee Stadium keeps fly balls in the park a bit more. On FanDuel he's $9,600, only $900 under Sale, so most of the savings disappear there. The simulation Over in this game is the risk, which I covered above.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs BOS | DK $9,600 | FD $10,600 | GPP
Schlittler has the best strikeout rate of any pitcher we expect to go deep today, at 31.4%. His 1.96 ERA is running ahead of a 2.70 xFIP, with a .254 BABIP and an 81.7% LOB rate doing some of the work, so I'm not treating that ERA as real. The 2.34 SIERA says the stuff is, though. He only lasted 3 innings on 9/24, so he stays a tournament play for me, as the pivot off Sale. FanDuel prices him at $10,600, the top of their pitcher board.
Jesus Luzardo (PHI) vs ATL | DK $7,700 | FD $9,900 | GPP
Luzardo's underlying numbers hold up against anyone here: a 30.3% K rate, a 2.79 xFIP, and lefties are hitting .172 wOBA off him. The catch is workload. His last start was 22 days ago and he's pitched once since, a 1-inning relief outing on 9/27, so I'd expect a short leash and fewer innings than usual, which knocks him out of cash. At $7,700 on DraftKings he's a cheap tournament dart against a team implied for 4.13. At $9,900 on FanDuel he isn't cheap, and I'd pass there.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Michael King (SD), Negative Regression Candidate
King's 3.21 ERA sits almost a full run under his 4.20 xFIP. A .260 BABIP and an 80.3% LOB rate are doing a lot of that, and a 21% K rate doesn't leave him much room once hits start falling. The Cubs are the team that benefits, implied for 3.47. He'll be popular at $7,500, and I'd rather take a couple of Cubs bats as one-offs: Pete Crow-Armstrong has a .322 ISO and a 15.5% barrel rate from the leadoff spot.
Final Thoughts
Sale and Tolle are my cash pair at $18,800 together on DraftKings, which leaves $31,200 for eight bats. I'm taking Paredes, Walker and Altuve from Houston with Tatis and Machado from San Diego, and Cam Smith at $3,100 fits the budget.
Before lock, keep an eye on the Houston and Chicago game. Houston has both Imai and Blubaugh priced at $6,200, and Chicago has Fedde behind Hagen Smith, so whoever throws the middle innings in that game changes both stacks. Philadelphia also has Andrew Painter priced next to Luzardo; given Luzardo's gap between starts, watch how early the Phillies go to the pen.
For tournaments, the White Sox lefties against the Houston bullpen are where I want to be different. Schlittler is my pivot off Sale, and Luzardo at $7,700 frees up salary for both a Houston and a White Sox block in the same lineup. Anthony and Crow-Armstrong are the one-offs I'd sprinkle in.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.