Playoff Adjustments
The regular season is over, and the Wild Card round continues today with 4 games. October baseball doesn't play like September, so we changed how our projections work for the postseason.
The biggest change is the starter's leash. We pulled every postseason start from 2015 to 2025, 880 of them, and compared each one to that pitcher's own regular-season average. Playoff starters threw about 84% of their usual innings, and the hook comes fast once they give up runs: with 3 earned runs, a postseason starter averaged 4.05 innings, against 5.27 in the regular season. So starter innings now come down by 14% to 21%, depending on how deep the pitcher usually works, and strikeouts, win odds and quality starts come down with them. Cristopher Sanchez goes from about 6.3 projected innings to 5.4. Hitters get more of their plate appearances against the bullpen as a result.
One thing we didn't do is cut the scoring. Playoff games do score a bit less, but the Vegas totals already price that in, and adjusting again would count it twice.
Weather to Watch
Philadelphia at Atlanta | Truist Park | Overcast, 85F | Wind: 5 mph Crosswind
It's 85 degrees for the 2 pm start, and that heat adds about 8% to home run odds, a bit more for righties than lefties. The wind blows across the field, so it doesn't help or hurt. Nowhere else on the slate is better for hitters today.
Boston at New York Yankees | Yankee Stadium | Overcast, 65F | Wind: 5 mph Crosswind
65 degrees and 92% humidity take about 5% off home run odds, and lefties lose the most. The short porch in right is still there, but a lefty has to square one up.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego | Petco Park | Overcast, 69F | Wind: 3 mph Crosswind
69 degrees with a light crosswind is close to neutral for Petco. Don't expect the weather to help anybody here.
Daikin Park's roof is expected to stay shut, which keeps the Astros and White Sox at a steady 73 degrees.
Model Bets
Over 6.5 (-117) | Boston at New York Yankees | Edge: +2.8%
The simulation lands on the Over 54.4% of the time, and the market's at 51.6%. Sonny Gray's ERA sits well under his xFIP, which I get into further down, and he's the side of this game I'd expect to give up runs. I also count it against Max Fried, who's only a tournament arm for me today.
Philadelphia -1.5 (+153) | Philadelphia at Atlanta | Edge: +1.4%
Small edge: 39.2% in the simulation against 37.8% in the market. It lines up with Cristopher Sanchez as my top cash arm and with the Phillies lefties against Tyler Mahle.
These come off the game simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
HR Calls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) DK $5,200 | FD $3,900 vs Tyler Mahle
I'm spending up for Schwarber at Truist in 85 degrees. Against righties he has a 128 wRC+ with 30 of his home runs, plus a .279 ISO, a 54% pull rate and a barrel rate of 17.2%. Mahle's 16.4% HR/FB is the highest of any starter on this slate, and Atlanta's relievers carry a 5.27 xFIP and 2.00 HR/9 against lefties. $5,200 is expensive on DraftKings, and $3,900 isn't cheap on FanDuel either, where hitters top out at $4,300.
Luis Garcia (NYY) DK $4,600 | FD $3,200 vs Sonny Gray
Garcia hits third for the Yankees and has been one of their best bats against righties: 135 wRC+, .267 ISO, 27 home runs. Gray's 2.72 ERA looks great until you see a 3.59 xFIP and an 83.2% strand rate behind it. Lefties have a 12.8% HR/FB off him. The humidity takes a little off, but $4,600 is a fair mid-tier price for a lefty who can reach the porch in right field.
Gavin Sheets (SD) DK $2,600 | FD $2,500 vs Kevin Gausman
This one's a dart. Sheets has 17 home runs and a 114 wRC+ against righties in 348 plate appearances, and he's hitting sixth. Gausman's been better against lefties than righties, I'll grant that, but lefties still have a 15.7% HR/FB off him, and the Cubs bullpen has a 5.09 xFIP against left-handed hitters. He's near the minimum on both sites, so the price is the same bargain everywhere.
Stacks to Target
1. Houston vs Sean Burke (R) | Implied Total: 4.25 | ROO Score: 4.0/10 | Cash
Burke has pitched worse than his ERA says. His 3.35 ERA is close to a run lower than his 4.22 xFIP, because he's stranded 79.4% of runners. Lefties have a .310 wOBA and 1.15 HR/9 against him, and Houston's lefties run a 123 wRC+ against righties, led by Alvarez at 198. Pena and Paredes are both at 130 from the right side. Burke's averaged 4.27 innings over his last 5 starts, so the Chicago pen comes in early, and it has a 4.39 xFIP against lefties. At 4.25 runs, Houston has the top implied total. It's the chalk stack, and I'm on it in cash.
Core pieces: Yordan Alvarez $6,000 (L), Jeremy Pena $4,700 (R), Isaac Paredes $4,400 (R), Christian Walker $3,800 (R), Yainer Diaz $3,500 (R)
2. San Diego vs Kevin Gausman (R) | Implied Total: 4.16 | ROO Score: 3.6/10 | GPP
I like Gausman more than his ERA, and I'll explain why below, so this is a tournament stack and not a cash one. The case for it is what righties do to him: a 1.76 HR/9, a 27.8% HR/FB rate and 44.6% hard contact. San Diego's righties have a 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Ty France is at 141. The Cubs pen is solid against righties with a 3.91 xFIP, so most of the damage has to come before Gausman leaves. At 4.16 implied runs, the Padres are second on the board.
Core pieces: Manny Machado $4,900 (R), Jackson Merrill $4,400 (L), Ty France $4,000 (R), Xander Bogaerts $3,600 (R), Gavin Sheets $2,600 (L)
3. Philadelphia vs Tyler Mahle (R) | Implied Total: 3.90 | ROO Score: 3.2/10 | GPP
Philadelphia's righties have a 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so this is a lefty stack. The lefties sit at 109, and Harper's 174 against righties is the best mark in the lineup. Mahle handles lefties better than righties, but his HR/FB still leads today's starters and it's 85 degrees. The bigger target is the Atlanta bullpen, at a 5.27 xFIP and 2.00 HR/9 against lefties. Philadelphia should draw a smaller crowd than Houston or San Diego, which is why it's my tournament stack.
Core pieces: Kyle Schwarber $5,200 (L), Bryce Harper $4,700 (L), Bryson Stott $3,900 (L), Brandon Marsh $3,400 (L), Trea Turner $4,200 (R)
Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) vs ATL | DK $9,700 | FD $10,400 | CASH
Sanchez is the most expensive arm on both sites, and I think he's worth it. His 2.91 ERA is a little worse than a 2.55 xFIP and 2.45 SIERA, because hitters have a .336 BABIP against him. He strikes out 27% of hitters, walks 5%, and lefties have a .176 wOBA against him. Atlanta's implied for 3.60. With Hunter Brown $1,000 cheaper, Sanchez probably won't be the most popular arm. Good.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs CWS | DK $8,700 | FD $9,500 | CASH
Brown is the chalk, and I'm going with it. He's got a 27.5% K rate, and Chicago's 3.25 implied runs are the second-lowest on the board. The walks are the risk: a 12.2% walk rate overall and 5.43 BB/9 against lefties, and the White Sox lean left with Teel, Murakami and Benintendi. If he runs deep counts, Houston goes to the pen early. Paired with Sanchez, he's the cash duo I'd build around.
Max Fried (NYY) vs BOS | DK $8,300 | FD $9,300 | GPP
Boston's implied for 2.84, the lowest on the slate, and that's the case for Fried. The case against him is home run luck. He's given up 4 home runs in 112.2 innings, a 1.8% HR/FB, and his 3.50 xFIP sits well above a 2.81 ERA. The Over from the game simulation agrees. He projects as one of the more popular arms, so I'm keeping him to tournaments.
Nick Pivetta (SD) vs CHC | DK $7,500 | FD $8,500 | GPP
Pivetta has only 34.2 innings over 8 starts this year, so treat his numbers as a small sample. The ones he's got are good: a 30% K rate and a 2.36 SIERA. He's averaged 4.33 innings over his last 5 starts, though, and a short start caps what he can score. On FanDuel, $8,500 is the lowest price for any starter today, and that's where I like him most. The Cubs are implied for 3.34.
Pitcher Regression to Watch
Kevin Gausman (CHC), Positive Regression Candidate
Gausman's 4.52 ERA is the worst among today's starters, and I don't believe it. His xFIP is 3.24, his SIERA is 3.15, and a .315 BABIP plus a 68.7% strand rate explain most of the gap. His 24.5% K rate and 6.3% walk rate both grade well. The righty home run problem is real, which is why I kept the Padres stack in tournaments. $8,000 is a fair DraftKings price for him if you're fading San Diego, and FanDuel has him at $8,600.
Sonny Gray (BOS), Negative Regression Candidate
Gray has a 2.72 ERA with a 3.59 xFIP behind it, and he's stranded 83.2% of his baserunners, which won't hold. He's striking out only 18.4% of righties, and a 21.8% K rate overall doesn't give him much room once balls start falling in. The Yankees are the team that gains, implied for 3.66, and their lefties are where I'd look. Ben Rice has a 162 wRC+ against righties from the leadoff spot, and Garcia is one of my home run calls. FanDuel wants $9,900 for him, second only to Sanchez. I'm passing.
Final Thoughts
Sanchez and Brown add up to $18,400 on DraftKings. That leaves $31,600 for eight hitters, just under $4,000 a bat. Alvarez, Paredes and Walker from Houston are my core. Machado and France from San Diego fit next to them, and Sheets at $2,600 opens up room for the last two spots.
Before lock, check the Truist forecast, since the heat is a big part of why I'm on the Phillies lefties. The Padres game starts last, at 10 pm Eastern, so there's time to adjust those pieces after the early games are underway.
My tournament builds start with the Phillies lefties against Mahle and the Atlanta bullpen. Swapping Fried or Pivetta in for Brown gets you off the most popular arm, and Rice and Garcia are good single bats against Gray.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: today's MLB DFS projections, the MLB home run predictor, first-pitch weather for every game, today's starting pitchers, and the free MLB lineup optimizer.