The pricing on this board says more than the lines do. Eleven players cost $7,000 or more on DraftKings, and the priciest of them is a running back at $8,000. Running back is where the board gives you the least room. The floor is $4,000 and the cheapest back I would start is $4,800, so both required running back slots come out of the middle of the board, and the flex gets no cheaper if you put a third one there. The savings are easier to find at quarterback, tight end and defense, and all three are happy to hand them over. The game by game read lives in this week's Matchups piece and I am not repeating it here.
The cash players below are the ones we think are the most underpriced on this board, with the best floor-and-ceiling combination and a reasonably tight range of outcomes. Ownership isn't a factor there at all. It takes over in the GPP section, where what the rest of the field is doing matters as much as the projection does, so the two lists won't always agree. They're listed in price descending order rather than ranked, and the rankings by site are at the bottom once salary is accounted for.
CASH
QUARTERBACK
Kyler Murray ($5,500 DK, $7,200 FD) – 32.9 pass attempts and 5.2 rush attempts, and the rushing is the reason to pay down here rather than lower. Be wrong about the passing efficiency and the legs still pay you. Green Bay sat in zone on 80.5% of charted snaps last season, second-heaviest of the 24 defenses here, so the reads are in front of him. He is my FanDuel quarterback too, and that is the uncomfortable part of the week.
Cam Ward ($5,100 DK, $6,600 FD) – 33.3 attempts from a team the market puts at 20.9 points, which only happens when a team expects to chase. Chasing is fine at $5,100. His completions line sits at 19.5, so the volume I am buying is the volume the market is pricing.
Geno Smith ($4,600 DK, $6,700 FD) – our one must on DraftKings, and the cheapest starter with genuine volume. 32.6 pass attempts at $4,600 is the widest gap between price and role at the position, and the field isn't close to him. New York is a small underdog and Tennessee gave up the third-most DraftKings points to receivers of the 24 defenses here last season, so the deficit script and the matchup agree for once. On FanDuel the usual instruction is to pay up at quarterback and we aren't doing it, because both expensive rushing quarterbacks there cost more than their attempt counts support. Take Murray, or Malik Willis at $6,500 for the 7.4 rush attempts.
RUNNING BACK
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000 DK, $9,100 FD) – the must play of the week. Detroit's other back landed on injured reserve and nobody left in that room costs more than $4,000, which settles the goal-line question this backfield carried all summer. He's down for 17.9 carries and five targets in the second-biggest scoring environment of the twelve games. Getting off him buys a back with less work in a worse game, and we can't build a side we like better. Everyone will be here and it doesn't change a thing.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,300 DK, $8,600 FD) – 18.2 carries, and nobody behind him costs more than $4,300 or touches it twice. Nothing to split, on a board stuffed with two-man rooms. The case against him is the game rather than the player. Baltimore runs the ball more than anyone here and Indianapolis holds its plan when it trails, so this one should be slow.
Travis Etienne ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD) – 14.5 carries and 2.9 targets as a six-point underdog. He is the defined lead back, and a deficit does not take carries away from a back who also catches passes.
Quinshon Judkins ($5,500 DK, $6,400 FD) – the want most likely to get promoted, because he's priced a tier under the role he already holds and doesn't need news to keep it. 15.2 carries is more than any other back under $6,000 here. His team carries the smallest scoring expectation of the twelve games, which is why he's $5,500 instead of $6,500. We'll buy the volume and let somebody else worry about the team total.
MarShawn Lloyd ($4,800 DK, $4,900 FD) – the man ahead of him is on the exempt list and Lloyd is down for 13.8 carries, the widest price-to-role gap at the position. He is a want and not a must for one reason. The staff has used the word committee out loud, and playing time certainty is the gate in cash. If Sunday morning hardens this into a workhorse he becomes the best play on the board. Until then he is a tournament back wearing a cash price.
WIDE RECEIVER
Ja'Marr Chase ($7,800 DK, $8,900 FD) – 10.2 targets in the highest-total game of the twelve. Tampa Bay sat in zone on 76.5% of snaps last season, and Chase has averaged 9.62 yards per target against zone versus 7.55 against man, so he works the coverage instead of running from one defender. Nobody at his position costs more and he's still correct, which we don't write often.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500 DK, $8,600 FD) – 31.1% of his team's targets, more than any player here commands. New Orleans played zone on 83.4% of snaps, the heaviest rate he'll see all month, and St. Brown's 9.42 yards per target against zone beats his 7.87 against man. A share that big holds the floor up on its own, and the coverage makes the ceiling easier.
Garrett Wilson ($5,800 DK, $6,900 FD) – 7.8 targets and a 24.0% share in a game his team is expected to lose. One honest mark against him: Tennessee runs zone on 80.6% of snaps and Wilson is the rare high-volume receiver who has been slightly better against man. The volume still carries it, but he isn't getting help from the coverage.
Jayden Reed ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD) – the best coverage matchup on the slate at any price. Minnesota played zone on 83.0% of snaps and Reed has averaged 13.38 yards per target against zone against 7.89 versus man, the widest split of anyone we're writing up. He also leads his own room at 20.8% while the teammate the market prefers costs $1,000 more for a smaller share.
Ladd McConkey ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD) – 7.3 targets inside the biggest team total on the board, with a 4.5 reception line backing the role. Arizona plays zone at 83.2% and his man and zone splits are near identical, so this one is volume and environment rather than a coverage edge. Popular, and in cash that isn't a reason to move off him.
Khalil Shakir ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD) – a 22.3% share under $5,000, and Houston's 78.8% zone rate suits him, with 8.28 yards per target against zone versus 6.96 against man. Receivers fill last and this is what we want to be filling with. One caveat: the books posted a reception line on his teammate and none on him, so they read that room differently than we do.
TIGHT END
Dalton Schultz ($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD) – 5.7 targets, more than any tight end under $3,500 sees, and his 7.40 yards per target against zone clears his 5.73 against man. Buffalo is one of the lighter zone teams on this board at 66.3%, so he gets less of that help than the rate alone suggests.
T.J. Hockenson ($3,300 DK, $5,000 FD) – 5.6 targets and the best mix of price and real target volume at the position. He's our tight end on both sites, and we'll say the uncomfortable part out loud: Green Bay runs zone at 83.2% and Hockenson has been marginally better against man. We're buying the role and the price, not the matchup.
Michael Mayer ($2,900 DK, $4,600 FD) – cheapest of the three and thinnest of the three, with man and zone splits that sit on top of each other. Use him when the build comes up $400 short.
We're punting tight end and we'd rather say why than just do it. Three tight ends between $4,400 and $6,800 hold genuine alpha usage, and none beats a $3,300 body by enough to cover the $1,100 to $3,500 it costs to get there.
DEFENSE
Tennessee ($3,100 DK, $3,200 FD) – 32.6 attempts coming at them in a near-pick game, which is the dropback volume you want a defense to face. On FanDuel they cost $1,400 less than two units projected identically. On the site where you are supposed to spend at defense, that solves the position.
Las Vegas ($2,900 DK, $3,800 FD) – same projection, cheaper on DraftKings, and the most popular play on this board. Cash ignores that; the next section does not.
New York Jets ($2,500 DK, $3,400 FD) – the cheapest unit I would start, taking on 33.3 attempts from across that same Tennessee game.
The Swaps
Swap one, $12,900 a side. Gibbs plus Jayden Reed against Chase Brown plus Garrett Wilson. Identical salary, and the first side clears the second by more than a read is allowed to override. It's worth writing out because the losing side is the one most people will build: Brown and Wilson are the two names in that band everybody already likes.
Swap two, $11,100 a side. T.J. Hockenson plus Ja'Marr Chase against Sam LaPorta plus Chris Olave. Moving up $1,100 at tight end buys a small upgrade there and costs you the best receiver on the slate. That's what punting tight end looks like written out in salary.
Swap three, $10,600 a side, and the one we're least sure about. Geno Smith plus David Montgomery against Cam Ward plus Quinshon Judkins. These land inside the window where a read decides. We take the Geno side because Montgomery has the goal-line work and Judkins doesn't. Flip it if you want the extra passing volume.
GPP
Uncertainty
The Green Bay backfield is the cleanest unpriced role on the board. The starter is on the exempt list, the replacement costs $4,800 on DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel, and the staff has left the door open to a committee in public. If that committee collapses into one back, you own a full workload at a third-string price while most of the field doesn't. If it stays split, you're out a cheap dart and little else. Nobody cheaper is set up to take the job instead, so we'd take that swing.
Atlanta is the same idea from the other direction. The starting quarterback is out, the backup carries a soreness tag as of Friday, and the pool has priced every Atlanta pass catcher as though the job is unresolved. That's correct, and it's why the leverage isn't in the receivers. It sits with Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD), who draws 5.4 targets and doesn't need to know who's throwing them.
Leverage D/ST
The Las Vegas defense is the most popular play on this slate and it's a $2,900 defense. Every unit on the board projects within a point and a half of every other one, so the position is close to free, and the field has still piled onto the cheapest good spot. Getting off it costs almost nothing you can measure.
Two ways to spend that. The plain one is Tennessee for $200 more on DraftKings, same projection, far fewer lineups. The better one is to pay up. The Los Angeles Chargers defense ($3,500 DK, $4,600 FD) is the most expensive unit here, facing one of the five smallest team totals behind the widest spread of the twelve games, and price alone keeps its ownership down. Pair it with Omarion Hampton and the story holds at both ends: the defense gets stops, the offense grinds out a nine-point lead, and you hold two pieces of one outcome.
Late Swap
Four games kick late: Miami at Las Vegas, Green Bay at Minnesota, Washington at Philadelphia, and Arizona at the Chargers. Three are traps.
The Chargers game carries both the highest team total and the heaviest ownership in the window, and both sit on the favorite, so swapping into it doesn't move you. Miami at Las Vegas has the popular defense on one side, so much of the field already holds that outcome. Washington at Philadelphia has the steepest script slope in the league on the favorite, so the passing game you'd swap into stops throwing the moment the game goes as expected.
Green Bay at Minnesota is the one real pivot. Near-pick spread, neither side heavily owned, and a backfield question that can resolve into a cheap workhorse an hour before kickoff. The information lands after the early window locks and you can act on it, so build the early window to leave both teams open.
THIS WEEK'S MODEL BETS
Straight off the game simulation, largest disagreement with the market first. Spread modes are still on paper, so nothing below is a spread.
Miami at Las Vegas, over 39.5 (-112). The sim wants this game more than nine points higher than the posted total, the widest gap of the twelve. It sees a competent quarterback on each side and two defenses it rates well below where the market has them.
Cleveland at Jacksonville, over 40.5 (-108). Eight points of disagreement in the same direction. The market has priced this as the slowest game on the board, and the sim has Jacksonville clearing the number close to on its own.
New York Jets at Tennessee, over 38.5 (-110). The lowest total on the slate against two offenses the sim has throwing it a combined 66 times. Cheapest number on the board to buy.
Chicago at Carolina, under 47.5 (-120). The one meaningful lean the other way, and the sim sits nearly five points below the market, mostly because it doesn't believe Carolina throws enough to keep up. Note you're laying juice on it.
Tennessee moneyline (-118). The biggest moneyline disagreement on the slate. The market has this near a coin flip and the sim makes Tennessee a clear favorite at home.
One caution we'd rather say than hide. It's Week 1, the simulation has no in-season data, and it's leaning over on most of the board. Its own recommended stake on all five is a fraction of a unit, which tells you how it rates its own confidence. Totals that far off the market are as likely to be the model being early as the market being wrong.
CHEAP WR
The rule: main-slate receivers under $5,000 on DraftKings or $6,000 and under on FanDuel, projected for five or more targets. Volume is the whole thesis. This is not a survey of the cheap tier, only the ones worth naming.
DraftKings & FanDuel
Khalil Shakir ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD) – 6.6 targets and the largest share in his own room. Route share is the path here rather than vacancy. He runs almost every route and the offense does not throw enough for a second receiver to matter.
Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,800 DK, $5,300 FD) – 6.6 targets and the team lead, and the path is script. Tennessee is down for 33.3 attempts against a 20.9 team total, which happens when a team expects to trail. Efficiency will be mediocre and the looks will be there.
Jayden Reed ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD) – 6.6 targets and the team lead below the price of the teammate the market knows better. His offense is run-first and that caps him, but inside the room he is the one getting the ball.
Michael Pittman ($4,900 DK, $5,800 FD) – 6.4 targets after a personnel change dropped him into a new offense, where our read has him leading the room. Atlanta's 80.4% zone rate fits him, with 7.85 yards per target against zone against 5.99 versus man. The books put a reception line on the pricier teammate and none on Pittman, so this is our number against theirs. Tournament price, tournament confidence.
Quentin Johnston ($4,700 DK, $6,000 FD) – 5.2 targets inside the biggest scoring expectation on the slate, and the second-best coverage matchup we found. Arizona plays zone at 83.2% and Johnston has averaged 10.56 yards per target against zone versus 6.14 against man. Thinner role than the rest of this group, better environment than any of them, and the coverage is doing real work here.
Jalen Coker ($4,600 DK, $5,400 FD) – 5.7 targets and a 19.3% share on an offense that puts the ball in the air 29.3 times, and only two starters on this board attempt fewer. The coverage doesn't help either: Coker has been better against man at 10.72 yards per target versus 8.43 against zone, and Chicago plays zone on 69.4% of snaps. That's the risk, and why he's $4,600.
KC Concepcion ($4,600 DK, $5,100 FD) – 5.6 targets on a team getting seven and a half points. Trailing script is the whole path, and it's a good one, because nothing on that offense costs anything.
FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)
Josh Downs ($5,200 DK, $5,600 FD) – 6.6 targets and a 21.1% share at one of the better FanDuel prices on the board. Same caveat as Pittman: the reception line in that room belongs to a teammate, so this is my read and not consensus.
Two to watch rather than roster. Alec Pierce ($5,700 DK, $6,000 FD) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,000 DK, $5,800 FD) both clear the filter and both carry an open designation as of Friday. Neither belongs in cash until that resolves.
RANKINGS
| Pos | Rank | DK | FD |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1 | Geno Smith | Malik Willis |
| QB | 2 | Kyler Murray | Tyler Shough |
| QB | 3 | Cam Ward | Kyler Murray |
| RB | 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | Jahmyr Gibbs |
| RB | 2 | Jonathan Taylor | MarShawn Lloyd |
| RB | 3 | Quinshon Judkins | Quinshon Judkins |
| RB | 4 | Travis Etienne | Ashton Jeanty |
| WR | 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | Amon-Ra St. Brown |
| WR | 2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Ja'Marr Chase |
| WR | 3 | Garrett Wilson | Wan'Dale Robinson |
| WR | 4 | Ladd McConkey | Jayden Reed |
| WR | 5 | Khalil Shakir | Ladd McConkey |
| WR | 6 | Jayden Reed | Josh Downs |
| TE | 1 | T.J. Hockenson | Michael Mayer |
| TE | 2 | Michael Mayer | Tyler Warren |
| TE | 3 | Dalton Schultz | T.J. Hockenson |
| DST | 1 | Las Vegas | Tennessee |
| DST | 2 | Tennessee | New York Jets |
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.