DraftKings main slate, Sunday October 4. Twelve games, taken one at a time. We wrote this on Wednesday, so designations can move before Sunday, and every status below is a Wednesday read.
High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield, TB QB | Out | 10 | Jalon Daniels ($4,400) holds the passing line after three Week 3 throws. Egbuka (24.7% share) |
| Caleb Williams, CHI QB | Doubtful (hamstring) | 10 | Case Keenum ($4,600) already threw all 34 Week 3 passes. Luther Burden III (23.3% share) |
| Josh Allen, BUF QB | Questionable (knee) | 9 | Kyle Allen ($4,000) if he sits. James Cook (20.3 carries) carries the offense either way |
| Puka Nacua, LA WR | Questionable (hip) | 8 | Davante Adams (13 Week 3 targets), Konata Mumpfield ($3,400) |
| Nico Collins, HOU WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Xavier Hutchinson (21 targets in three games), Dalton Schultz (19.5% share) |
| Justin Jefferson, MIN WR | Questionable (ankle) | 8 | Jordan Addison (nine Week 3 targets), T.J. Hockenson (20.4% share) |
| Breece Hall, NYJ RB | Questionable (thigh) | 8 | Braelon Allen ($5,200), Isaiah Davis ($4,200) |
| Mike Evans, SF WR | Questionable (ribs) | 7 | Deebo Samuel Sr. (17.8% share), George Kittle (21.0%) |
| Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR | Questionable (leg) | 7 | Courtland Sutton (17.1% share), Pat Bryant ($4,200) |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR | Questionable (finger) | 7 | Garrett Wilson (13 Week 3 targets) |
| Dallas Goedert, PHI TE | Doubtful (knee) | 6 | DeVonta Smith (32.6% share), Zach Ertz ($3,100) |
| Terrance Ferguson, LA TE | Doubtful (ankle) | 6 | Tyler Higbee ($3,100), 11 targets in Week 3 |
| Jayden Reed, GB WR | Doubtful (neck) | 5 | Matthew Golden (25.8% share), Christian Watson (26.5%) |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
Early Window, 1:00 PM ET
JAX @ CIN
Team Totals: JAX 24.3, CIN 26.7
At 51.0, nothing on the board carries a bigger total. Joe Burrow went 28 of 37 for 282 yards, three scores, in Week 3, and he projects for 33.2 attempts. Ja'Marr Chase has 21 targets across Weeks 2 and 3, with 9.4 more projected, a 28.3% share for $8,100 … Tee Higgins is the cheaper way into this passing game. He has a 47.0% projected air-yards share with 7.5 targets and went 6-90-1 in Week 3, so at $6,100 you're buying a WR1 role at a WR2 price … Chase Brown gets 16.8 carries and 4.2 targets, and very few backs beat his $6,100 salary by more. Jacksonville's defense lived in zone last season (76.2%), and zone is where backs keep their checkdowns, a lean toward those targets holding up … Mike Gesicki ($3,300) has scored in two of three games.
Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns in Week 3 and gets 28.8 attempts plus 4.0 carries. Parker Washington costs $6,500 for a 25.0% target share and a 42.8% air-yards share, though his looks fell from 12 to five last week … Bhayshul Tuten has scored in back-to-back games on the way to a 14.8-carry projection, but with only 2.0 targets he's a touchdown-first RB2, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. vultured a Week 3 score of his own … Jakobi Meyers drew eight targets in his first real week and caught seven for 64 and a touchdown.
Model Prediction: CIN 29, JAX 26
NE @ BUF
Team Totals: NE 21.3, BUF 26.7
Josh Allen is listed questionable with a knee after a 204-yard, two-interception Week 3, and at $7,700 he projects for 27.7 attempts and 7.4 carries. Treat every Buffalo note as conditional until Sunday. James Cook is the one piece that holds regardless: 45 carries for 289 yards over the last two weeks, a score in each, and 20.3 more projected. He handles the goal-line work, but 2.4 targets leaves his floor on the ground … DJ Moore saw 10 targets in Week 3 and projects for 29.7% of Buffalo's air yards at $5,700. He has 118 unrealized air yards in two games, which puts him in the closing block below … Dalton Kincaid ($5,300) has 263 yards on 17 targets this year.
Drake Maye has thrown six interceptions in three games and no touchdowns in the last two, and he gets 28.5 attempts plus 5.0 carries. The backfield is a committee: TreVeyon Henderson projects for 11.4 carries, Rhamondre Stevenson for 10.4 with more of the receiving work … Mack Hollins went 6-87 on nine targets in Week 3 and costs $4,000. Buffalo's 2025 two-high rate of 52.6% ranks third among these defenses, and that shell takes away the deep route Romeo Doubs lives on, so the lean goes to Hollins … Hunter Henry ($3,500) projects for 4.5 looks.
Model Prediction: BUF 25, NE 21
DAL @ HOU
Team Totals: DAL 22.4, HOU 24.9
C.J. Stroud went from 55 attempts in Week 2 to 27 in Week 3, and his 35.5 projected attempts trail only Love's. Nico Collins has a questionable designation for his hamstring and has logged no stats since Week 1. Dalton Schultz ($4,800) has been the fallback, catching 12 balls in Week 2, and he projects for 6.9 looks here … Xavier Hutchinson's 170 unrealized air yards top the slate, but Weeks 2 and 3 both came with Collins logging no stats. A healthy Collins takes that volume back … David Montgomery ran 11 times for 33 yards in Week 3 with Woody Marks cutting into his work, and 14.0 projected carries don't fix that. Call it a committee.
Dak Prescott threw 40 times for 276 yards in Week 3 and gets 35.0 attempts. CeeDee Lamb has 265 yards across Weeks 2 and 3 and an 8.8-target projection. Houston's 2025 zone rate was 68.5%, and Lamb's slot routes are the ones zone leaves open … George Pickens was our regression buy last week and it half-landed: 11 targets for 82 yards, the first week he caught up to his air yards. At $6,300 he still carries an 8.1-target projection … Javonte Williams ran 19 times for 98 yards with a score in Week 3 and projects for 16.2 carries plus 3.5 targets … Ryan Flournoy drew eight targets and caught two.
Model Prediction: HOU 24, DAL 21
LAR @ PHI
Team Totals: LAR 23.3, PHI 21.0
Matthew Stafford threw 55 times for 390 yards in Week 3 and projects for 34.3 attempts at $6,200. Puka Nacua is questionable with a hip and has logged no stats since Week 1, yet he still projects for a 33.5% share at $7,500 if he plays. Davante Adams is the safer buy at $7,000: 23 targets and 332 yards over the last two weeks, and 44.4% of the Rams' projected air yards. Philadelphia played man on 43.6% of 2025 snaps, second-most here, and man coverage funnels targets to wideouts … Kyren Williams caught six of seven targets for 70 yards in Week 3 and projects for 14.1 carries … With Terrance Ferguson doubtful, Tyler Higbee ($3,100) is coming off an 11-target game.
Jalen Hurts managed 153 yards on 25 attempts in Week 3 and projects for 28.5 attempts plus 6.5 carries. DeVonta Smith is the passing game at $7,100, with a 32.6% target share and a 45.2% air-yards share while Dallas Goedert sits doubtful … Saquon Barkley ran 15 times for 82 in Week 3 and projects for 14.1 carries plus 2.7 targets. At $6,800 that's a lot of salary for a back with a bad receiving line all season … Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300) carries a 31.4% air-yards share with 4.9 targets.
Model Prediction: LAR 25, PHI 22
TEN @ BAL
Team Totals: TEN 16.8, BAL 27.3
Baltimore's 27.3 is the biggest team total of the week, and the 10.5-point spread is the widest. Lamar Jackson threw two touchdowns on 20 attempts and ran for 50 yards in Week 3. He projects for 23.9 attempts with 6.6 carries at $7,300 … Derrick Henry has six rushing touchdowns in three games and projects for 22.9 carries, more than any other back. He owns the goal-line role on the best total of the week, but 1.5 targets means his floor needs a score … Zay Flowers ($6,900) projects for a 30.8% share. Tennessee's 73.5% zone rate from 2025 helps, since Flowers does his work in the open middle zone leaves … Mark Andrews ($4,200) projects for a 24.1% share.
Tennessee's 16.8 trails only Miami's. Cam Ward threw for 181 yards on 36 attempts last week and gets 31.6 here. Carnell Tate gets 38.6% of the air yards and 7.0 targets at $4,800 … Wan'Dale Robinson drew 11 targets and scored in Week 3 … Tony Pollard gets 13.1 carries and 2.3 targets on the second-smallest total here, which keeps him out of cash … Helm, at $2,800, is one of the few tight ends who clears his price by a wide margin.
Model Prediction: BAL 28, TEN 17
ARI @ NYG
Team Totals: ARI 21.9, NYG 22.2
Jacoby Brissett threw 52 times for 280 yards plus two touchdowns in Week 3, and $5,000 for 31.8 projected attempts is one of the cheapest passing floors on the board. Trey McBride has 34 targets through three games and projects for 9.4 more, the most of any tight end … Michael Wilson drew 17 targets in Week 3 and projects for 42.0% of Arizona's air yards at $5,500. The Giants' 2025 man rate of 39.9% leans that way too, since man coverage feeds wideouts. He's in the closing block … Jeremiyah Love ran 21 times for 90 yards and caught five passes with a score last week, while Tyler Allgeier got two carries. It's Love's backfield now, at 14.4 carries and 3.7 targets.
Jameis Winston threw all 22 of the Giants' Week 3 passes for 118 yards and gets 23.0 here. Cam Skattebo ran 20 times and caught three for 40 in Week 3, and his projection sits at 17.8 carries … Malik Nabers draws a 24.1% share at $6,000, but he has 96 yards through three games. He's drawing looks from a quarterback who can't get him the ball … Isaiah Likely ($4,500) projects for 5.4 looks.
Model Prediction: NYG 27, ARI 18. We have the Giants by nine, and the market lines Arizona as a slight favorite.
NYJ @ CHI
Team Totals: NYJ 19.8, CHI 23.8
Case Keenum threw every Bears pass in Week 3, 24 of 34 for 247 yards with two scores, and costs $4,600. Luther Burden III drew 11 targets in Week 3 and projects for 6.6 more, a 23.3% share at $5,200. The Jets' 2025 man rate was 40.1%, and man coverage moves targets to wideouts, a lean toward Burden … Kalif Raymond has caught 19 of 21 targets this year and costs $3,600 … D'Andre Swift projects for 17.8 carries plus 2.6 targets but hasn't scored since his three-touchdown opener.
Geno Smith went 31 of 37 for 321 yards, three touchdowns, in Week 3 and projects for 32.4 attempts at $5,200. Garrett Wilson caught 10 of 13 targets for 107 yards last week and holds a 28.5% share. With Adonai Mitchell questionable, his floor goes up … Breece Hall is questionable with a thigh after running 13 times for 32 yards, and Braelon Allen is the back who gains if he sits … Kenyon Sadiq went 7-105-1 on eight targets in Week 3 at $4,000.
Model Prediction: CHI 28, NYJ 17. An 11-point margin against a market spread of 3.5.
GB @ TB
Team Totals: GB 22.2, TB 19.5
Jordan Love threw 53 times in Week 3 and projects for 36.2 attempts, the most of any quarterback this week, at $5,800. Matthew Golden scores more than any receiver at his price: 9.3 targets at $5,400, 24 targets across Weeks 1 and 3, and 163 unrealized air yards. He's in the closing block … Christian Watson has scored every week and projects for 9.6 targets at $6,700. With Jayden Reed doubtful, both of them gain … Josh Jacobs is listed out, and MarShawn Lloyd's 9.7 projected carries leave a committee nobody should chase.
Baker Mayfield is out, and Jalon Daniels holds the passing line after three throws in relief last week. At $4,400 he beats his price by the widest margin at quarterback, and books hang a 35.5-yard rushing line on him, so the legs are part of the case. Bucky Irving gets 14.2 carries plus 4.0 targets … Emeka Egbuka takes a 24.7% share at $5,900. Green Bay played zone on 80.5% of 2025 snaps, second-most here, and that gives Chris Godwin Jr. room underneath for his short routes … Cade Otton at $3,400 sits with Helm at the top of the tight end value list. Ted Hurst III drops off the regression list: his deep targets came from Mayfield.
Model Prediction: GB 26, TB 24. That's 11.2 points over the market's 39.5, the widest total gap this week.
Afternoon Window, 4:05 PM ET
MIA @ MIN
Team Totals: MIA 15.6, MIN 25.2
This is the lowest total on the board at 40.9, and Miami's 15.6 is the smallest team total. Kyler Murray threw all 29 of Minnesota's Week 3 passes for 168 yards and gets 22.3 attempts. Aaron Jones is our favorite piece here: no back beats his $6,000 price by more, on 19.6 carries plus 2.7 targets. After zero catches in the first two games he caught five of six targets in Week 3 … Justin Jefferson is questionable with an ankle and saw two targets last week. Jordan Addison drew nine, catching five for 90 yards plus a score, and projects for 22.0% of the looks … T.J. Hockenson at $3,300 projects for a 20.4% share. Minnesota's defense costs $4,000, the most expensive unit on the slate.
Malik Willis ran for 56 yards in Week 3 and projects for 28.1 attempts plus 6.8 carries at $4,900. Malik Washington fell off our list last week when his aDOT collapsed, and it came back: 10 targets and 113 air yards in Week 3. Minnesota's 59.3% two-high rate in 2025 was the heaviest of any defense here, which caps the downfield part … Ollie Gordon II projects for 12.6 carries and 1.1 targets on the slate's smallest total. That's a fade.
Model Prediction: MIN 30, MIA 19. That's 10.5 points over a 38.5 market total, in the game everyone has pegged as the dud.
Late Window, 4:25 PM ET
KC @ LV
Team Totals: KC 25.3, LV 21.2
Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 24 for 246 yards with two scores in Week 3 and costs $6,500 for 32.1 attempts. Kenneth Walker III has four touchdowns in three games, with 21.9 carries and 4.0 targets projected at $8,200, a three-down workload on a 25.3 total … Rashee Rice caught seven of nine for 88 in Week 3 and projects for 7.2 targets. Las Vegas played zone on 79.6% of 2025 snaps, third-most here, and his short routes find space against it … Travis Kelce ($5,000) saw two targets in Week 3 after 11 in Week 2.
Kirk Cousins has thrown three touchdowns in every game and projects for 22.0 attempts at $5,100. Brock Bowers put up his first stat line in Week 3, 10 catches for 116 yards and a score on 13 targets, and he projects for a 32.9% share at $6,900 … Ashton Jeanty projects for 20.7 carries plus 3.4 targets, but he's turned 40 carries into 104 yards over the last two weeks.
Model Prediction: KC 24, LV 17. Seven points under the market's 47.5.
DEN @ SF
Team Totals: DEN 22.6, SF 25.0
Brock Purdy needed 27 attempts for 297 yards and four scores in Week 3, and he projects for 28.0 this week at $6,700. Christian McCaffrey projects for 13.5 carries plus 5.7 targets, a 20.3% share. Denver played man on 44.6% of 2025 snaps, the most of any defense here, and man is where backs lose the checkdown, so that receiving work is the part at risk … George Kittle has scored three times over the last two weeks and carries a 5.9-target projection at $5,100 … Mike Evans (ribs) is questionable and Brandon Aiyuk is out, which pushes Deebo Samuel Sr. ($5,600) toward a bigger share.
Bo Nix threw two touchdowns on 34 attempts in Week 3, and his projection is 32.0 at $5,600. Jaylen Waddle is questionable with a leg after catching two of seven targets for 10 yards. Courtland Sutton ($4,900) gains if he sits … RJ Harvey drew seven targets in Week 3 and projects for a 16.2% share at $5,000, while J.K. Dobbins takes the early downs at 12.2 carries. That's a committee, and Harvey's receiving role is the one to own.
Model Prediction: SF 27, DEN 24
LAC @ SEA
Team Totals: LAC 18.9, SEA 24.9
Sam Darnold threw all 45 of Seattle's Week 3 passes for 379 yards with four touchdowns, and he projects for 25.2 attempts at $5,500. Jaxon Smith-Njigba owns a 36.0% projected share, more than any player on the slate, after 36 targets and six touchdowns in three games. The Chargers' 2025 zone rate was 77.7%, and slot routes get open against zone. At $9,100 he's the most expensive player on the board … Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson split the backfield at 11.2 and 9.2 carries.
Justin Herbert has thrown a touchdown and at least one interception in every game and projects for 30.9 attempts. Tre Harris at $4,100 caught six of seven for 76 in Week 3 and projects for 5.8 targets … Omarion Hampton gets 16.9 carries but 1.8 targets on one of the three smallest totals, so he's a touchdown dart, not a cash play … Quentin Johnston keeps hitting the air yards screen on short throws, so we'll pass again.
Model Prediction: SEA 24, LAC 20
Unrealized Air Yards
Think of unrealized air yards as the total depth of every pass thrown at a receiver, minus the yards he gained on them. These three keep earning deep looks and haven't cashed them yet.
Matthew Golden, Green Bay: a 163-yard gap. Week 1: 12 targets, 137 air yards, 95 receiving yards. Week 2: six targets, 80 air yards, 58 receiving yards. Week 3: 12 targets, 199 air yards, 100 receiving yards. The gap is steady rather than one fluke week, he projects for a 25.8% share with Reed doubtful, and his price still trails Watson's by $1,300.
Michael Wilson, Arizona: a 132-yard gap. Week 1: seven targets, 83 air yards, 56 receiving yards. Week 2: seven targets, 50 air yards, 18 receiving yards. Week 3: 17 targets, 162 air yards, 89 receiving yards. Last week produced most of it, but that was a 17-target game, and he projects for 42.0% of Arizona's air yards.
DJ Moore, Buffalo: a 118-yard gap in two games. Week 1: eight targets, 158 air yards, 100 receiving yards. Week 3: 10 targets, 127 air yards, 67 receiving yards. The gap is split across both games, he projects for 29.7% of the air yards, and the Allen knee is the one thing that could change who throws him the ball.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this breakdown comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.