Week 5 is final. Friday's Top Plays article built the DraftKings cash lineup around Jahmyr Gibbs and Trey McBride. The lineup we entered scored 173.16 and cashed. It used Isaiah Likely in the flex, and that one change carried the week. Our GPP lineup, built on Jordan Love, finished in the top 0.4% of the $700K Play-Action. The Millionaire went to a Drake Maye and DeMario Douglas stack that scored 250.06. All scores below are DraftKings points.
CASH REVIEW
The DraftKings Build
This is the cash lineup we entered on Sunday. It is not the exact build from Friday's article. Two spots changed: Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in place of Jordan Love, and Isaiah Likely in the flex in place of KC Concepcion.
The lineup cost $49,900 and scored 173.16, so it cashed. The min-cash line was about 148 in the $100K Huddle, 156.48 in the $250K Power Sweep and 157.26 in the $400K Spy. We cleared the Spy line by 15.90 and the Power Sweep line by 16.68.
Friday's posted build, with Love and Concepcion, scores 144.26. That version misses all three lines. Likely outscored Concepcion by 30.9 points for $100 more. Brissett gave back 2.0 points to Love and saved $200. The net gain was 28.9 points.
What Worked
Isaiah Likely ($4,300): 11 catches on 13 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns, 32.4 points. The Giants threw 54 times, the most on the slate. Likely was the best score per dollar in the lineup.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800): 25 carries for 151 yards and two touchdowns, plus five catches for 56 yards. Detroit won 45 to 21. We paid the top price on the slate for his floor, and he gave us 40.7.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,500): 29 of 47 for 292 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, 26.28 points. The 47 attempts gave him a floor in a 45 to 21 loss.
Houston D/ST ($3,400): 15 points. Tennessee scored 3.
Trey McBride ($6,700): nine catches on 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. The role held, and he gave us 21.6.
Malik Washington ($4,600): six catches on eight targets for 43 yards, plus an 18-yard run. Miami threw only 27 times, and he still saw about 31% of the targets.
What Failed
Michael Wilson ($6,200): four catches on seven targets for 30 yards, 7.28 points. Arizona had the volume we expected. Brissett threw 47 times. Wilson drew only seven of the 46 Arizona targets. McBride took 10 and Kendrick Bourne ($3,400) took eight. With Marvin Harrison Jr. out, the extra looks spread across three players instead of one.
Tre Harris ($4,100): two catches on four targets for 16 yards. The Chargers threw 24 times all game, and Justin Herbert finished 14 of 24 for 121 yards. Friday named the Denver pass rush as the risk here. The Broncos won 23 to 17. Harris had no path to volume in that game.
Those two receivers took $10,300 of salary and scored 10.88 points together. The lineup cashed with both of them under 8 points.
The Swaps, Graded
Swap one: Friday took Jordan Love over Jacoby Brissett. Love scored 28.28 and Brissett 26.28, so Friday's call was right by 2.0 points. Love was also 5.4% owned in the Millionaire against 28.6% for Brissett, and he returned +35%. In our cash lineup, Love did not fit. We played him in our GPP lineup instead. He costs $200 more, and with Likely in the flex the lineup was at $49,900. Love would have put it at $50,100. Brissett also made three Cardinals in one cash lineup, the exact risk Friday named. It worked this week because Brissett threw 47 times.
Swap two: Friday took McBride plus Concepcion (23.1 points) over Likely plus D'Andre Swift (49.7 points). That call was wrong by 26.6. Our entered lineup kept McBride and moved Likely into the flex for Concepcion. That kept McBride's 21.6 and added Likely's 32.4.
GPP REVIEW
Our GPP Lineup
Jordan Love was our tournament quarterback. We stacked him with Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft, and we brought it back with D'Andre Swift and Luther Burden III from Chicago. Gibbs, Likely, Malik Washington and Houston filled the rest.
The lineup cost $50,000 and scored 201.58 in the $700K Play-Action, a $3 contest with 259,115 entries. It finished 1,016th and won $20. The winner scored 243.64, so we were 42.06 points short of first.
The Green Bay side did its job. Love went 25 of 31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns. Watson caught six passes for 143 yards and two scores. In that contest, Love was 5.2% owned and Watson 9.6%. Kraft caught all five of his targets for 64 yards, and Likely added 32.4 at 12.4%.
The Chicago bring-back cost us. Green Bay won 31 to 7. Swift scored 17.3 at 38.5% ownership, and Burden caught four passes for 47 yards. A bring-back needs the other team to score, and Chicago scored only 7.
Millionaire: What Won
The $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire had 161,557 entries and paid $1M to first. The winning lineup scored 250.06:
| Slot | Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye | $6,300 | 42.46 | 4.3% |
| RB | Jaylen Warren | $6,700 | 39.8 | 17.9% |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | $6,200 | 17.3 | 41.4% |
| WR | Christian Watson | $6,400 | 35.3 | 9.3% |
| WR | Tre Harris | $4,100 | 3.6 | 18.3% |
| WR | DeMario Douglas | $3,500 | 22.5 | 1.2% |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | $4,300 | 32.4 | 11.9% |
| FLEX | Jahmyr Gibbs | $9,800 | 40.7 | 26.6% |
| DST | NY Jets | $2,700 | 16.0 | 9.6% |
The core is New England. Maye went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, and he ran one in. Douglas caught four of five targets for 65 yards and two of those scores. New England beat Las Vegas 45 to 17. The lineup had no bring-back from the Raiders.
Look at the rest of it. The winner played Gibbs, Swift and Tre Harris, three of the most popular players on the slate. Harris scored 3.6 and the lineup still won by six points. A cheap quarterback stack at 4.3% and 1.2% ownership did the work.
Second place scored 244.04 with Jameis Winston, Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely from the Giants. Third place scored 243.64 with the same three Giants. Winston was the quarterback in five of the top 12 lineups. Likely was the tight end in all 12. Jaylen Warren was in 10 of the 12.
Top ROI Plays
ROI below is the return on each $20 entry for every lineup that used the player. We remove the $1M first prize, so one lineup cannot set the number. The list uses players on at least 0.5% of lineups. The full board is on the NFL Player ROI tool.
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas, NE WR | $3,500 | 22.5 | 1.2% | +369% |
| Detroit D/ST | $3,000 | 7.0 | 0.9% | +292% |
| Jameis Winston, NYG QB | $4,800 | 29.74 | 3.9% | +217% |
| Isaiah Likely, NYG TE | $4,300 | 32.4 | 11.9% | +101% |
| Christian Watson, GB WR | $6,400 | 35.3 | 9.3% | +89% |
| Malik Nabers, NYG WR | $6,300 | 32.1 | 8.8% | +87% |
| Jaylen Warren, PIT RB | $6,700 | 39.8 | 17.9% | +41% |
| Drake Maye, NE QB | $6,300 | 42.46 | 4.3% | +36% |
| Jordan Love, GB QB | $5,700 | 28.28 | 5.4% | +35% |
| Matthew Golden, GB WR | $5,700 | 23.3 | 8.4% | +21% |
Ignore the Detroit defense. It scored 7 points. The runner-up lineup used it, and only 291 of its 1,429 lineups cashed.
The rest of the list comes from two passing games. The Giants threw 54 times, the most on the slate, in a 27 to 27 tie with Washington. Winston went 33 of 54 for 326 yards and three touchdowns. Nabers drew 20 targets and caught 11 for 121 yards and a score. Green Bay supplied the other group: Love, Watson (six catches, 143 yards, two touchdowns) and Golden (six catches, 123 yards).
Warren is the one running back on the list. He ran 15 times for 101 yards and a score, and he caught all six of his targets for 87 yards and a second score.
The Chalk That Failed
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson, ARI WR | $6,200 | 7.28 | 45.6% | -62% |
| D'Andre Swift, CHI RB | $6,200 | 17.3 | 41.4% | -42% |
| Trey McBride, ARI TE | $6,700 | 21.6 | 36.6% | -53% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET WR | $7,900 | 12.9 | 34.3% | -74% |
| Jacoby Brissett, ARI QB | $5,500 | 26.28 | 28.6% | -56% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, DET RB | $9,800 | 40.7 | 26.6% | -7% |
| Chase Brown, CIN RB | $6,900 | 8.0 | 23.0% | -79% |
| Emanuel Wilson, SEA RB | $5,300 | 14.2 | 21.6% | -59% |
| Roman Wilson, PIT WR | $3,700 | 0.0 | 18.6% | -69% |
| Tre Harris, LAC WR | $4,100 | 3.6 | 18.3% | -55% |
All 10 of the most popular players lost money. Seven of them scored under 20 points. Gibbs came closest to break-even at -7%, and he scored 40.7. When a player is on more than a quarter of lineups, 40 points only gets you back to even.
Arizona is the clear lesson. Brissett threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns and scored 26.28. At 28.6% ownership that was not enough, and his top receiver scored 7.28. Roman Wilson drew one target in Pittsburgh. St. Brown caught six of 11 targets for 69 yards while Gibbs carried 25 times.
One defense over 5% ownership made money: the Jets at $2,700, with 16 points and +5% ROI. Cleveland scored 12. Houston returned -28% and Minnesota -33%. Las Vegas was 9.6% owned, scored -1 and returned -79%.
Ownership Breakdown
The average top 200 lineup had a total ownership of 121.2%. The average lineup in the full field had 142.7%. The top lineups were 21.5 points lower, and you can see where the gap came from. Michael Wilson was 45.6% owned in the field and in 16.5% of the top 200. St. Brown went from 34.3% to 5.5%. Brissett went from 28.6% to 6.5%.
The top 200 did not avoid all chalk. Gibbs was in 56.5% of them, about double his field rate. The big gains came from mid-owned players. Likely and Warren were each in 77.5% of the top 200. Nabers was in 50.0% at 8.8% field ownership. Winston was in 38.0% at 3.9%.
Stacking Notes
- 94.0% of the top 200 lineups paired the quarterback with at least one teammate. In the field, 91.7% did.
- Two teammates with the quarterback was the most common build at the top: 134 of the top 200. 48 used one teammate, and only six used three or more.
- Quarterback plus receiver plus tight end was on 28.4% of field lineups and returned -24%, the best of the common stack types. Quarterback plus one receiver was on 31.2% and returned -59%. Winston with Nabers and Likely is that first build.
- The bring-back did not help this week. 51.0% of the top 200 used one, against 57.8% of the field. The winner had none.
- Winston was the quarterback in 76 of the top 200 lineups. Maye had 48 and Love had 43. Those three quarterbacks were a combined 13.6% of the field.
High-Stakes, Small Field
The $400K Spy is single entry at $100, with 4,444 entries and $100K to first. The winner scored 225.14 with Winston, Nabers and Likely, plus Jaylen Warren, Braelon Allen, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Antonio Williams, McBride in the flex and the Jets defense. Winston was the quarterback in seven of the top 10 lineups. Likely was in eight of them.
The small field leaned harder into the chalk that failed. Michael Wilson went from 45.6% in the Millionaire to 54.7% in the Spy. Swift went from 41.4% to 53.6%, McBride from 36.6% to 44.9% and Brissett from 28.6% to 37.9%. Winston dropped from 3.9% to 3.0%, and he was the clearest edge in the contest.
WHERE WE MISSED
Swap two in the article. Friday's posted build used McBride and Concepcion over Likely and Swift. Likely outscored McBride by 10.8 points for $2,400 less. Readers who played the posted build scored 144.26 and missed. Our entered lineup cashed because Likely went into the flex.
Michael Wilson. He was in the cash build and named as a GPP bring-back. Arizona threw 47 times and Wilson got seven targets. When a top receiver sits, his targets do not all go to one teammate.
The cheap receivers. Tre Harris and Concepcion combined for five targets. Friday pointed to the Denver pass rush as the Harris risk, and the Chargers threw 24 times. We noted the risk and played Harris anyway in cash.
The Detroit stack. Friday's GPP angle needed Jared Goff to throw a lot again. He threw 30 times. Detroit scored 45, and Gibbs carried 25 times. Goff scored 28.94 at 14.7% ownership and returned -60%. Sam LaPorta was 16.2% owned and Jameson Williams 11.8%. The field found that stack too.
The late swap. We named Brock Purdy with George Kittle. San Francisco won 32 to 29, but Purdy threw for 189 yards and Kittle caught five passes for 24 yards. T.J. Hockenson, our GPP tight end after Jordan Addison went out, saw one target and scored 1.7.
Some Friday calls hit. Love was the article's quarterback on both sites, our GPP quarterback, and made money at +35% in the Millionaire. The Sunday Update named Jaylen Warren as the pivot from Aaron Jones. Warren scored 39.8 at +41%, and Jones scored 22.7 at -15%. Houston was the cash defense and scored 15.
BEST PIVOTS
Michael Wilson ($6,200) to Christian Watson ($6,400) or Malik Nabers ($6,300). $200 or $100 more. Watson scored 28.0 more points and Nabers 24.8 more. Each was owned about one fifth as much as Wilson.
Trey McBride ($6,700) to Isaiah Likely ($4,300). $2,400 less. 10.8 more points. Less than one third of the ownership.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,500) to Jameis Winston ($4,800). $700 less. 3.46 more points. Winston was 3.9% owned against 28.6% for Brissett.
Chase Brown ($6,900) to Jaylen Warren ($6,700). $200 less. 31.8 more points. Brown ran 13 times for 39 yards.
Tre Harris ($4,100) to DeMario Douglas ($3,500). $600 less. 18.9 more points at 1.2% ownership against 18.3%.
HOW TO THINK LIKE THIS MORE OFTEN
- Spread the missing receiver's targets. Marvin Harrison Jr. sat, and his work went to McBride, Bourne and Michael Wilson. When a top target is out, give the extra volume to two or three players, then price each one with that smaller bump.
- A big team total can come on the ground. Detroit scored 45 with 30 Goff passes. When the back takes the role, pay for the back and keep the pass-catcher exposure light.
- In cash, check the cheap spots twice. Concepcion drew one target and Harris drew four. Moving $100 from Concepcion to Likely was worth 30.9 points and turned a miss into a cash. When two cheap options cost about the same, take the one with the clearer path to targets.
- Find the team that has to throw. The Giants threw 54 times in a close game, and their cheap quarterback, tight end and top receiver all paid. A low-priced quarterback with a high attempt count gives you a stack and spare salary at the same time.
Tools used for this review
Every number in this review comes off the BankrollSZN tools: the NFL Player ROI tool, the NFL Build ROI tool, this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.