Week 5 NFL DFS Top Plays: Cash, GPP, and Cheap WR

Sunday's main slate runs eleven games deep, with Philadelphia and Jacksonville playing in London that morning and left off. Detroit at Arizona is the game of the week at a 53.1 total, Detroit is implied for 29.3, and Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800) is the most expensive player on the board, and he's worth it. We're paying for him and for two more backs, which pushes us to a $3,500 Bengals receiver and the $2,100 Tennessee defense on DraftKings. Inactives won't post until Sunday, so read every tag in here as Friday's version. Some of the board moved since Wednesday. The injury section below has a tab for what changed, and Wednesday's Matchups piece has the game-by-game detail.

The cash section holds the players we'd put in 50/50s and double-ups: the safest floors and the best scoring for the money inside each price tier, with real volume behind both. A popular player is fine there, and we never fade one to be different. GPP is where ownership and correlation take over. Each position runs priciest first, and both sites get a ranking at the bottom.

Injuries and News

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

High Impact Weather

Two early games carry weather that can move a decision. New York at Washington shows gusts near 30 mph through the game window with a 96% chance of rain, and Indianapolis at Pittsburgh has gusts around 25 mph with a 95% rain chance. Wind and a wet ball both hurt deep throws. That gives us one more reason to like Washington's defense on FanDuel, and we'd go lighter on Pittsburgh's downfield shots in tournaments. Cleveland at the Jets has an 86% rain chance with gusts near 22, and Chicago at Green Bay runs a steady 13 mph wind, and neither changes who we play. Minnesota at New Orleans and Denver at the Chargers are indoors, and Arizona expects to close its roof.

Kickoff forecasts for every game: NFL weather today

Pass Rush Mismatches

Pass rush	DL rank	Offensive line	OL rank	Line injuries
Denver	4	LA Chargers	31	None
Minnesota	1	New Orleans	15	None
New Orleans	11	Minnesota	32	G Donovan Jackson (IR)
Cleveland	6	NY Jets	30	None
Cincinnati	7	Miami	27	None
NY Giants	32	Washington	12	Rusher Brian Burns (IR)
San Francisco	31	Seattle	13	None
Miami	26	Cincinnati	6	None

Denver's Zach Allen has 13 pressures and three sacks for a front that sits fourth on our board. Los Angeles counters with the 31st-ranked line, one that gives up pressure 32.6% of the time Herbert drops back. Denver's defense is our favorite pricier option in tournaments, and Justin Herbert is the quarterback most likely to spend Sunday on his back.

Minnesota has the top-ranked rush on the slate. Dallas Turner leads it with 22 pressures and 5.5 sacks, and the Vikings get home on 39.5% of dropbacks. New Orleans brings the 15th-ranked line. Minnesota's defense has a real path to sacks and turnovers, and Tyler Shough should expect traffic.

In the same game, New Orleans ranks 11th up front, but the Vikings line ranks last, left guard Donovan Jackson is on IR, and Minnesota quarterbacks go down on 10.6% of dropbacks. The Saints defense works as a salary saver, and Kyler Murray carries sack risk.

Cleveland's rush ranks sixth, and Mason Graham already has four sacks. The Jets line ranks 30th, and 9.3% of their dropbacks end in a sack, so we like the Browns defense, and Geno Smith faces a long afternoon.

Cincinnati ranks seventh up front, and Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen each have eight pressures. Miami's line ranks 27th and allows pressure on 30.7% of dropbacks. That makes the Bengals defense the game-script option in that matchup and one more problem for Malik Willis.

Washington's 12th-ranked line draws the weakest rush in the league. The Giants rank 32nd, pressure 14.4% of dropbacks and have Brian Burns on IR, so Jayden Daniels should have time and the Giants defense is a fade.

The 49ers front sits 31st with a 4.0% sack rate, against a Seattle line ranked 13th. Sam Darnold gets a clean pocket, and we're off the 49ers defense.

The Dolphins rank 26th up front and sack quarterbacks on 3.4% of dropbacks, while Cincinnati's line ranks sixth. Joe Burrow should stay upright, so leave the Dolphins defense alone. Every unit is ranked on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.

CASH

QUARTERBACK

We split every position's DraftKings price range into thirds. At quarterback: pay up $6,200 and above, mid tier $5,400 to $6,100, cheap under $5,400.

Jared Goff ($6,600 DK, $8,100 FD) – 10% projected ownership. Pay-up tier. He threw for 412 yards last week, and his 280.5-yard passing line is the highest on the slate. No quarterback carries a higher floor, but he costs $1,100 more than Jacoby Brissett on the other side of the same game, and we'd rather put that money into a third back.

Jacoby Brissett ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD) – 13% projected ownership. Mid tier, and our DraftKings quarterback. His projection calls for a slate-high 37.1 attempts, and the market agrees: 37.5 on his attempts line, 266.5 on his yardage line. Arizona is a 5.5-point home underdog in the highest-total game, so he'll be chasing an offense that scores. He threw three interceptions last week, and turnovers are the risk, but no quarterback under $6,000 brings a higher floor.

Jordan Love ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD) – 8% projected ownership. Mid tier, and our FanDuel quarterback. He's projected for 33.1 attempts against a passing-attempts line of 33.5, and he's thrown two touchdowns in every game this season. On FanDuel he lets us keep Trey McBride without putting three Cardinals in one cash lineup, which is why he's there.

Malik Willis ($4,600 DK, $6,600 FD) – 6% projected ownership. Cheap tier. Of the cheap starters, only Willis brings legs: his rushing line is 33.5 yards, with 6.0 projected carries. That profile usually wins the DraftKings quarterback spot, but Miami runs fewer plays than any offense in football, Willis threw just 17 passes last week, and Cincinnati's rush gets a line ranked 27th. We'd rather pay $900 more for Brissett's volume, and the first swap below lays it out.

RUNNING BACK

Pay up $7,900 and above, mid tier $5,900 to $7,800, cheap under $5,900.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800 DK, $10,000 FD) – 50% projected ownership. Pay-up tier, and the core of both builds. His 22.3 projected carries top the slate, and he adds 5.8 targets on the week's highest team total. His rushing line is 90.5 yards with 4.5 catches on top, and he's scored seven touchdowns in four games. His floor is the highest of any back on the slate. More than half the field will have him, and leaving him out means betting he fails while everyone else rides him.

Jonathan Taylor ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD) – 17% projected ownership. Mid tier. His projection is 20.6 carries, and he has six rushing touchdowns, but he's caught 10 balls in four games and gets 3.5 targets here, so his floor depends on the ground game in a 21.2-point spot. Gibbs costs $2,000 more and brings the receiving work Taylor lacks.

D'Andre Swift ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD) – 19% projected ownership. Mid tier, and our second back on DraftKings. Kyle Monangai is out with a toe sprain, so Chicago's carries go to Swift: 17.5 projected carries plus 3.5 targets. The hip is the risk. He was limited in practice and carries a questionable tag. Chicago kicks off at 1:00, so the news comes before lock, and Aaron Jones is the swap if Swift sits.

Jaylen Warren ($6,700 DK, $6,700 FD) – 10% projected ownership. Mid tier. He's run for 220 yards in Weeks 3 and 4, with 14.8 projected carries plus 4.1 targets this week. Rico Dowdle carries a toe designation, which only helps. He's the pivot if you want a back with fewer questions about the carry count than Aaron Jones.

Aaron Jones ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD) – 9% projected ownership. Mid tier, our third back on FanDuel, and the DraftKings swap if Swift sits. His carry line sits at 16.5, and he's cleared it in each of his last three games, at 23, 17 and 20. He drew 14 targets across Week 3 and Week 4. On FanDuel he's $300 cheaper than on DraftKings, which makes him one of the better values on that site.

Emanuel Wilson ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD) – 9% projected ownership. Cheap tier. No back beats his DraftKings price by more. Zach Charbonnet is on PUP, Jadarian Price is on injured reserve, and Emanuel Wilson turned 21 carries into 81 yards and a score last week, then caught three passes for 39 yards and another touchdown. He's projected for 16.0 carries in a 24.7-point Seattle spot. His catch line is only 1.5, so don't count on the receiving work repeating, but at this price the carries are enough.

RJ Harvey ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD) – 4% projected ownership. Cheap tier. He caught all 10 of his targets last week, and his 6.0 projected targets rank second among backs behind Christian McCaffrey, with 4.7 carries beside them. He's the cheaper pass-game back if Aaron Jones doesn't fit.

WIDE RECEIVER

Pay up $6,900 and above, mid tier $4,900 to $6,800, cheap under $4,900.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD) – 19% projected ownership. Pay-up tier. No receiver is projected for more targets than his 10.3, and he has five touchdowns. He holds 29.8% of Detroit's air yards from Weeks 2 to 4 and caught 245 of the 303, so he's a volume buy with no rebound coming. With Gibbs already in from the same offense, we'd rather spread the money across two receivers below him.

Garrett Wilson ($6,600 DK, $7,400 FD) – 15% projected ownership. Mid tier. His projection is 9.1 targets, and his receptions line is 6.5. Last week was the floor: Geno Smith threw just 15 passes and Garrett Wilson drew four of them. In Week 3 he caught 10 of 13 targets for 107 yards and a score. He owns 38.7% of the Jets air yards from Weeks 2 to 4, 238 thrown and 191 caught, so you're paying for targets. Adonai Mitchell is out.

Michael Wilson ($6,200 DK, $6,400 FD) – 20% projected ownership. Mid tier, and only KC Concepcion beats his DraftKings price by more at the position. He drew 30 targets over Weeks 3 and 4, and his projection adds 9.7 more, a 25.0% target share in the highest-total game. He holds 51.4% of Arizona's air yards from Weeks 2 to 4, with 133 still uncaught, and Wednesday's article lists that gap game by game. He pairs with Brissett on DraftKings. A quarterback and his top target is as much stacking as we'll do in cash.

KC Concepcion ($4,200 DK, $5,600 FD) – 8% projected ownership. Cheap tier, and our DraftKings receiver if Tee Higgins plays. His projection is 7.0 targets and a 21.4% target share after 17 targets in Weeks 3 and 4. He works underneath, with 21.1% of Cleveland's air yards, 110 thrown and 101 caught, so you get catches more than depth. Cleveland's 19.4 team total is the worry, and the target count is why we take him anyway.

Dohnte Meyers ($3,500 DK, $5,400 FD) – 5% projected ownership. Cheap tier, and our DraftKings punt. Tee Higgins did not practice this week and is questionable, and Ja'Marr Chase is questionable with a concussion after limited sessions. Meyers caught seven of nine targets for 82 yards last week. With both tags priced in, our projection gives him 4.9 targets. If Higgins sits and Chase plays, he climbs to about 6.7 targets and roughly 12 DraftKings points, at $3,500. Cincinnati is implied for 25.7 at Miami, and the game kicks off at 1:00, so the Higgins news lands at the 11:30 inactives. If Higgins plays, Meyers falls to about three targets, and KC Concepcion takes the spot. The second swap below has the math.

TIGHT END

Pay up $5,500 and above, mid tier $4,000 to $5,400, cheap under $4,000.

Trey McBride ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD) – 23% projected ownership. Pay-up tier, and the FanDuel tight end. Nobody at the position is projected for more than his 11.1 targets, with a 28.7% target share and a 7.5 receptions line, and he's seen double-digit targets in all four games. He holds 25.0% of Arizona's air yards and caught 147 of 163, which is catch volume. On DraftKings he'd mean a third Cardinal in a cash lineup. On FanDuel he costs $600 less than Brock Bowers, and we'll pay it.

Sam LaPorta ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD) – 7% projected ownership. Mid tier. He drew 13 targets in Week 4, gets a projection of 6.7 targets, and holds 17.8% of Detroit's air yards. Gibbs and St. Brown eat first in that offense, though, and Isaiah Likely is the better value in this tier.

Isaiah Likely ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD) – 15% projected ownership. Mid tier, and the DraftKings tight end. His projection is 8.6 targets and 13.0 DraftKings points, more than LaPorta for $600 less. The knee is the risk: he was limited in practice and is questionable. The Giants play at Washington at 1:00, so you'll have the news before lock. If he sits, Kenyon Sadiq is the fallback.

Kenyon Sadiq ($3,800 DK, $5,100 FD) – 2% projected ownership. Cheap tier, and the fallback if Likely sits. Week 4 was a zero, no catches in four looks, and our projection dropped to 4.4 targets and 7.1 DraftKings points. In Week 3 he posted seven catches on eight targets, 105 yards and a score. He works short, with 15.8% of the Jets air yards, so the floor is catches, but the price no longer buys enough of them.

DEFENSE

Pay up $3,000 and above, mid tier $2,500 to $2,900, cheap under $2,500.

Houston ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD) – 11% projected ownership. Pay-up tier. Tennessee is implied for 16.4, lowest on the slate. It's the safest defense on the board and $1,300 more than Tennessee on DraftKings.

Washington ($2,900 DK, $3,300 FD) – 6% projected ownership. Mid tier, and our FanDuel defense. Jameis Winston is projected for 31.1 attempts and threw two interceptions last week, and the wind and rain in the forecast lean toward mistakes. At $3,300 on FanDuel it's priced like a punt.

Tennessee ($2,100 DK, $3,100 FD) – 3% projected ownership. Cheap tier, and the DraftKings defense. We're buying the price. C.J. Stroud is projected for 31.6 attempts and Houston is implied for 22.7, and the price is what lets Gibbs and two more backs fit.

The Swaps

Swap one. Brissett, D'Andre Swift and Tennessee at $13,800 against Malik Willis, Jaylen Warren and the Jets defense ($2,700) at $14,000. The Willis side costs $200 more and projects about two points less. Willis threw 17 passes last week and faces a top-10 rush behind a weak line, while Brissett's attempts line is 37.5. Take the Brissett side.

Swap two is the Bengals call. Dohnte Meyers and Isaiah Likely at $7,800 against KC Concepcion and Kenyon Sadiq at $8,000. With the Higgins tag priced in, the Meyers side projects about four points higher, and if Higgins is ruled out, the gap grows to about seven. If Higgins is active, the two sides come out close to even, and we'd take Concepcion and Sadiq for the floor. On FanDuel, Meyers costs $5,400 and the math doesn't work, so we stay with McBride and Jordan Love, which keeps the Cardinals at two.

The Builds

GPP

Duplication

Detroit at Arizona is where the field lives. Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800 DK, $10,000 FD, 50% projected ownership) leads the slate, Trey McBride ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD, 23% projected ownership) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD, 19% projected ownership) follow, and Michael Wilson ($6,200 DK, $6,400 FD, 20% projected ownership) isn't far behind. We'd stack the same game through the pieces the field skips: Jared Goff ($6,600 DK, $8,100 FD, 10% projected ownership) with Jameson Williams ($5,900 DK, $6,500 FD, 4% projected ownership) and Sam LaPorta ($4,900 DK, $6,000 FD, 7% projected ownership). That's a quarterback and two of his pass catchers. Jameson Williams turned eight targets into 102 yards last week and holds 23.0% of Detroit's air yards, and LaPorta drew 13 targets. For this to hit, Goff throws 50 times again in a game that won't slow down, and Lions games have averaged 137.5 combined plays, tops among slate teams (NFL pace of play). The bring-back is optional. If you want one, Marvin Harrison Jr. ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD, 2% projected ownership) holds 20.1% of the Arizona air yards on only 10 targets.

Uncertainty

Chicago's backfield is down to one tag. Kyle Monangai is out with a toe sprain, which leaves D'Andre Swift ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD, 19% projected ownership) with 17.5 projected carries if his hip lets him play. The field has found him, so he's a cash play more than leverage. If Swift sits, Roschon Johnson takes the work at close to zero ownership. Chicago plays at 1:00, so keep a flex open until the news lands.

Chris Olave is the second. His foot designation follows 35 targets in Weeks 2 to 4, and Devaughn Vele ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD, 5% projected ownership) climbs to a 23.3% target share if he sits. Vele has 96 unrealized air yards, listed week by week at the end, and the Saints play fast. If Olave plays, the crowd goes to him, and Vele comes cheap in the same passing game.

Cincinnati is the third. Tee Higgins did not practice and is questionable, and Ja'Marr Chase is questionable with a concussion. If Higgins sits, our model sends Chase to about 9.6 targets and Dohnte Meyers to about 6.7, and Meyers is in our cash build. Mitch Tinsley ($3,300 DK, $4,900 FD, 2% projected ownership) is the tournament version. He drew seven targets last week and caught three for 49 yards. Our model barely moves him, 3.4 to 3.6 targets with Higgins out, because Meyers holds the bigger role. At 2%, one long catch is enough.

Late Swap

Three games make up the late window: Denver at the Chargers at 4:05, then Lions-Cardinals and 49ers-Seahawks at 4:25. Detroit at Arizona is the trap, because the field is on both sides of it. San Francisco at Seattle is where we'd pivot. The crowd is on Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,800 DK, $9,300 FD, 18% projected ownership), and the 49ers side is light: Brock Purdy ($6,500 DK, $8,300 FD, 7% projected ownership) with George Kittle ($5,200 DK, $6,700 FD, 10% projected ownership), who has four touchdowns and has turned 146 air yards into 232 receiving yards from Weeks 2 to 4. Mike Evans carries a ribs designation, and if he sits, Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. absorb the looks. Only make that swap if your lineup trails after the 1:00 games. If you're ahead, hold your Lions or Seahawks. For a late defense, Denver ($3,200 DK, $4,700 FD, 7% projected ownership) faces the 31st-ranked Chargers line.

Building It

Spread your quarterbacks. Goff, Purdy, Jacoby Brissett ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD, 13% projected ownership) and Malik Willis ($4,600 DK, $6,600 FD, 6% projected ownership) can all carry a lineup, so keep any one of them to roughly 20% to 30% of your entries and any defense near 20%. On a main slate this size, about 30% randomness keeps your lineups from looking alike. The gap between the field and the ceiling is widest at quarterback, where Willis and Justin Herbert ($5,100 DK, $7,100 FD, 6% projected ownership) bring real upside with almost nobody on them, and at running back, where the field owns Gibbs well past what his ceiling for the price supports. Play him, just not in every lineup.

THIS WEEK'S MODEL BETS

Three main-slate plays came out of our game simulation, listed from the widest gap with the market down. No spreads made the list.

Minnesota at New Orleans, under 42.5 (-115). We have it about a point below the number, with two pass rushes that can get home on these quarterbacks. You're laying juice.

Las Vegas at New England, under 45.5 (-118). It sees about 44 points and holds Las Vegas under 17. The total has drifted toward 44.5 at some books, so shop for the 45.5, and you're laying juice here too.

Los Angeles Chargers moneyline (+152). The simulation has the Chargers winning a close game while the market makes Denver the favorite.

Each one carries a tiny fraction of a unit, which tells you how close these are. Every simulated score is on our NFL Monte Carlo game simulator.

Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CHEAP WR

Receivers on the main slate priced below $5,000 on DraftKings or at $6,000 or less on FanDuel, with a projection of five targets or more. We only list the ones we'd play. KC Concepcion qualifies and is written up in the cash section, with Dohnte Meyers.

DraftKings & FanDuel

Luther Burden III ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD) – 8% projected ownership. Tyson Bagent is the named starter, and Burden's projection is a 22.1% target share on 7.2 targets. He drew 24 targets in Weeks 2 to 4 and holds 36.0% of Chicago's air yards, 202 thrown and 156 caught, so he's been paid for most of it. The path to volume is the quarterback: Bagent started last week and threw six of his 34 passes Burden's way. He's our third receiver on FanDuel.

Malik Washington ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD) – 12% projected ownership. He went five-for-five for 67 yards in Week 4. His projection is now 7.5 targets, because Caleb Douglas did not practice and Chris Bell was limited, and our model moves part of their looks to him. That bump is why his ownership climbed. He holds 25.2% of Miami's air yards and caught 166 of 177, so the role is the buy, in a slow offense.

Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,500 DK, $5,200 FD) – 4% projected ownership. He projects for 5.8 targets. Carnell Tate was cleared on Friday, so don't count on a bump. He works short, 19.0% of Tennessee's air yards, and the Titans are a big home underdog, which means a lot of throwing.

FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)

Devaughn Vele ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD) – 5% projected ownership. He projects for 6.4 targets, and his target share climbs to 23.3% if Chris Olave sits. His 96 unrealized air yards are listed week by week at the end.

Denzel Boston ($5,200 DK, $5,800 FD) – 5% projected ownership. His projection is 5.7 targets and nearly half the Browns' projected air yards, 49.5%. From Weeks 2 to 4 he held 51.6% of them and caught 225 of 269. You're buying the deep role on a low team total, which makes him a tournament piece more than a cash one.

Unrealized Air Yards

Air yards measure how far downfield each target traveled. Subtract the yards a receiver actually caught, and what's left is unrealized. These three have the targets to close the gap.

DK Metcalf, Steelers: 117 unrealized. Week 2: nine targets, 62 air yards, 27 receiving yards. Week 3: five targets, 73 air yards, 31 receiving yards. Week 4: nine targets, 155 air yards, 115 receiving yards. Two-thirds of the gap came in Weeks 2 and 3, and last week was his best conversion of the three. Michael Pittman Jr. is out, and Metcalf's projection is 7.8 targets at $5,400. The wind and rain in Pittsburgh are the worry.

Tre Tucker, Raiders: 101 unrealized. He's the positive regression candidate we'd back this week. Week 2: seven targets, 143 air yards, 119 receiving yards. Week 3: four targets, 35 air yards, 43 receiving yards. Week 4: eight targets, 129 air yards, 44 receiving yards. Most of the gap is last week, when he drew eight targets and caught half of them. He holds 31.2% of the Raiders air yards, Jalen Nailor is questionable with a concussion, and he costs $4,800.

Devaughn Vele, Saints: 96 unrealized. Week 2: seven targets, 69 air yards, 64 receiving yards. Week 3: six targets, 94 air yards, 39 receiving yards. Week 4: nine targets, 90 air yards, 54 receiving yards. The gap is steady across all three weeks, he holds 26.1% of the Saints air yards, and Saints games have run fast all season.

RANKINGS

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.