Week 6 is final. Friday's Top Plays article listed our cash plays, led by Tanner McKee at the minimum price and Kenneth Walker III. The lineup we entered from that pool scored 145.30 and cashed. The Millionaire went to a Michael Penix Jr. lineup with Malik Nabers, Germie Bernard and Walker that scored 210.5. All scores below are DraftKings points.
CASH REVIEW
The DraftKings Build
This is the cash lineup we entered on Sunday. McKee, Walker, Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard and Drake London came from Friday's cash section. Cleveland came from the Sunday Update, with Lamar Jackson out. Malik Nabers, Wan'Dale Robinson and Dallas Goedert were not in the cash section.
The lineup cost $50,000 and scored 145.30. It finished 122nd of 909 entries in a contest that paid 400 places, so it cashed. The min-cash line was 140.18 in the $100K Huddle, 143.60 in the $200K Power Sweep and 145.92 in the $400K Spy. We cleared the Huddle line by 5.12 and the Power Sweep line by 1.70. We missed the Spy line by 0.62.
Nabers and Walker carried the lineup with 62.4 points between them. The cheap spots held it back. McKee scored 12.6 and Robinson 5.2.
What Worked
Malik Nabers ($6,500): 12 catches on 15 targets for 165 yards, 31.5 points. The Giants threw 47 times. He was the best score in the lineup.
Kenneth Walker III ($8,500): 19 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns, plus two catches for 11 yards. Kansas City won 22 to 6, and he scored 30.9.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,300): 28 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, 22.1 points. Carolina ran 33 times in a 25 to 14 win. Friday called him the third back if you skip Kyren Williams. We played both, and Hubbard outscored Williams by 12.4.
Cleveland D/ST ($2,500): three sacks and a fumble recovery, 9 points. Baltimore scored 10 with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, and Cleveland won 13 to 10.
Dallas Goedert ($3,900): six catches on eight targets for 61 yards, 12.1 points. That was a fair return for the price.
What Failed
Kyren Williams ($6,800): 10 carries for 50 yards and three catches on six targets for 17 yards, 9.7 points. He was in 63.7% of lineups in our contest. The Rams had the highest team total on the slate and lost 18 to 16 to Arizona.
Tanner McKee ($4,000): 26 of 45 for 215 yards and one touchdown, 12.6 points. He threw 15 more passes than Friday expected, but he averaged 4.8 yards per attempt. Philadelphia lost 25 to 14.
Drake London ($7,000): four catches on 10 targets for 62 yards, 12.2 points. The targets came, but Atlanta threw only 33 times. Penix threw his three touchdowns to Kyle Pitts Sr. and Jahan Dotson.
Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,500): three catches on seven targets for 22 yards, 5.2 points. Tennessee threw 22 times all game.
Kyren Williams, McKee, London and Robinson took $22,300 of salary and scored 39.7 points together.
The Swaps, Graded
Swap one: Friday took McKee plus Kyren Williams ($10,800, 22.3 points) over Penix plus Tony Pollard ($10,400, 31.7 points). We played McKee and Williams, so that call cost us 9.4 points. Penix went 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three touchdowns and scored 24.1. Pollard ran 19 times for 76 yards and scored 7.6. With Penix and Pollard, our lineup scores 154.7 for $49,600 and clears the Spy line.
Swap two: Friday took Isaiah Likely plus Xavier Worthy ($9,400, 38.2 points) over Harold Fannin Jr. plus Devaughn Vele ($9,200, 9.1 points). That call was right by 29.1 points. We played neither pair. Goedert plus Robinson cost $8,400 and scored 17.3.
GPP REVIEW
Millionaire: What Won
The $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire had 158,904 entries and paid $1M to first. The winning lineup scored 210.5:
| Slot | Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Michael Penix Jr. | $5,000 | 24.1 | 4.9% |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | $6,700 | 23.0 | 10.1% |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | $6,300 | 22.1 | 18.2% |
| WR | Malik Nabers | $6,500 | 31.5 | 24.0% |
| WR | Xavier Worthy | $4,600 | 14.3 | 21.3% |
| WR | Germie Bernard | $4,000 | 25.7 | 21.2% |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | $4,800 | 23.9 | 35.1% |
| FLEX | Kenneth Walker III | $8,500 | 30.9 | 23.3% |
| DST | Kansas City | $3,600 | 15.0 | 5.9% |
This lineup had no quarterback stack. Penix had no Falcons with him. The only link was Swift, who plays for Chicago, Atlanta's opponent. Swift ran for two touchdowns in a 31 to 23 Bears win. The rest was popular players who hit. Seven of the nine were over 10% owned, and the total ownership was 164.0%.
Second place scored 209.2, 1.3 points back. It also used Penix, Walker, Hubbard, Nabers, Bernard and Likely, with Brock Bowers, Carnell Tate and the Titans defense. Walker was in all 12 of the top 12 lineups. Bernard and Nabers were each in 11 of them, and Likely was in nine. Kirk Cousins and Penix were each the quarterback in three.
Top ROI Plays
ROI below is the return on each $20 entry for every lineup that used the player. We remove the $1M first prize, so one lineup cannot set the number. The list uses players on at least 0.5% of lineups. The full board is on the NFL Player ROI tool.
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee D/ST | $2,300 | 21.0 | 2.4% | +235% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr., ATL TE | $3,700 | 23.0 | 3.4% | +55% |
| Michael Penix Jr., ATL QB | $5,000 | 24.1 | 4.9% | +43% |
| Germie Bernard, PIT WR | $4,000 | 25.7 | 21.2% | +38% |
| Tre Tucker, LV WR | $4,700 | 26.7 | 12.6% | +30% |
| Michael Mayer, LV TE | $3,200 | 16.5 | 2.7% | +30% |
| Kenneth Walker III, KC RB | $8,500 | 30.9 | 23.3% | +28% |
| Malik Nabers, NYG WR | $6,500 | 31.5 | 24.0% | +25% |
| Kansas City D/ST | $3,600 | 15.0 | 5.9% | +22% |
| Kirk Cousins, LV QB | $5,400 | 22.52 | 9.9% | +16% |
Tennessee won 26 to 20 in Indianapolis. Daniel Jones threw 42 times and had two interceptions, and the Titans defense scored 21. That was the top defense score on the slate, and it sat on 2.4% of lineups.
Bernard caught 11 of 12 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Pittsburgh threw 49 times in a 26 to 19 win in Tampa. He was on 21.2% of lineups and still made money, because he was in 75.0% of the top 200.
Las Vegas gave us three plays. Cousins went 23 of 41 for 313 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 33 to 30 loss to Buffalo. Tucker caught five of seven targets for 97 yards and two scores. Mayer caught seven of nine for 95 yards. Nabers drew 15 targets and caught 12 for 165 yards. The Giants threw 47 times between two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy.
The Chalk That Failed
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua, LAR WR | $8,100 | 14.0 | 41.7% | -66% |
| Isaiah Likely, NYG TE | $4,800 | 23.9 | 35.1% | -7% |
| Carolina D/ST | $2,500 | 4.0 | 31.8% | -53% |
| Drake London, ATL WR | $7,000 | 12.2 | 27.1% | -57% |
| Kyren Williams, LAR RB | $6,800 | 9.7 | 25.1% | -67% |
| Bijan Robinson, ATL RB | $8,700 | 7.3 | 24.3% | -80% |
| Malik Nabers, NYG WR | $6,500 | 31.5 | 24.0% | +25% |
| Kenneth Walker III, KC RB | $8,500 | 30.9 | 23.3% | +28% |
| Xavier Worthy, KC WR | $4,600 | 14.3 | 21.3% | -57% |
| Germie Bernard, PIT WR | $4,000 | 25.7 | 21.2% | +38% |
Seven of the 10 most popular players lost money. Three made money: Nabers, Walker and Bernard, and each scored more than 25 points. Likely scored 23.9 and still returned -7%, because 35.1% of the field had him.
The Rams cost the most. Nacua caught six of seven targets for 80 yards. Kyren Williams ran 10 times. Matthew Stafford went 25 of 33 for 222 yards and scored 16.88 at 16.1% ownership, a -78% return. Bijan Robinson ran nine times for 61 yards and lost 8 yards on two catches. Atlanta ran the ball 12 times as a team.
One defense over 5% ownership made money: Kansas City, with 15 points and +22%. Carolina returned -53%, the Jets -59% and Cleveland -39%. Pittsburgh scored 10 and returned -43%. New England returned -66%.
Ownership Breakdown
We did not expect this one: the top lineups were more popular than the field. The average top 200 lineup had a total ownership of 152.1%. The average lineup in the full field had 135.9%. The top 200 were 16.2 points higher.
The top 200 picked the popular players who hit. Nabers was 24.0% owned in the field and in 76.0% of the top 200. Bernard went from 21.2% to 75.0%, and Walker from 23.3% to 73.5%. Tucker went from 12.6% to 63.0%, and James Cook III from 17.7% to 57.0%. Cook ran 22 times for 95 yards and a score and caught three passes for 58 yards.
The losing chalk dropped out. Nacua went from 41.7% in the field to 12.0% of the top 200. London went from 27.1% to 18.0%, and Carolina from 31.8% to 21.0%. Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson were each on about a quarter of field lineups and on fewer than 10% of the top 200.
Stacking Notes
- 87.5% of the top 200 paired the quarterback with at least one teammate. In the field, 86.3% did.
- One teammate with the quarterback was the most common build at the top: 94 of the top 200. 76 used two, five used three, and 25 used none.
- The bring-back helped this week. 56.5% of the top 200 used one, against 45.6% of the field. A running back bring-back was on 13.5% of the field and returned -26%. A lone receiver bring-back returned -47%.
- Quarterback plus receiver plus tight end was on 21.4% of field lineups and returned -29%. Quarterback plus two receivers was on 6.0% and returned -75%.
- Cousins was the quarterback in 73 of the top 200 at 9.9% field ownership. Winston had 29 and Tyler Shough had 20. McKee had one.
High-Stakes, Small Field
The $400K Spy is single entry at $100, with 4,444 entries and $100K to first. The winner scored 192.92 with Cousins and Tucker, plus Walker, Cook, Nabers, London, Bernard, Dallas Goedert and the Tampa Bay defense. Cousins was the quarterback in eight of the top 10 lineups. Bernard and Tucker were each in eight of them.
The small field leaned harder into the Atlanta side. London went from 27.1% in the Millionaire to 35.5% in the Spy. Bijan Robinson went from 24.3% to 31.3%, and Carolina from 31.8% to 37.5%. Nacua went from 41.7% to 44.1%. Bernard also climbed, from 21.2% to 28.6%, and that one paid. Cousins went from 9.9% to 11.9%.
WHERE WE MISSED
- The quarterback in cash. McKee threw 45 times, which is more than Friday expected, and still scored 12.6. Penix scored 24.1 for $1,000 more. Friday used the savings on Walker, Kyren Williams and two expensive receivers. Walker hit, but Williams, London and Garrett Wilson scored 30.3 together.
- The Rams. Friday called them the highest team total and put Kyren Williams in cash. Los Angeles scored 16 points and lost. Williams got 10 carries. Friday did fade Nacua in cash, and that part held: he scored 14.0 at $8,100.
- Garrett Wilson. Friday expected about nine targets and the top target share on the slate. He got six of the Jets' 29 targets.
- The Bears stack. Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 for 305 yards and one touchdown, 19.5 points at 7.5% ownership and a -53% return. Rome Odunze caught three of four targets for 39 yards. Luther Burden III caught all eight of his targets for 95 yards. Chicago scored 31, but Swift ran in two of the touchdowns.
- The Philadelphia stack. Smith played, and the open targets went to him: 14 targets, seven catches, 75 yards and a score. Goedert caught six of eight for 61 yards. Tetairoa McMillan, the bring-back, caught six of nine for 86 yards. Carolina won 25 to 14, so the game never turned into a shootout.
- The late swap. Patrick Mahomes went 23 of 30 for 272 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He scored 11.48. Travis Kelce caught four passes for 53 yards. The Chiefs defense part of that call did hit, with 15 points.
Friday did get some calls right. Walker was the cash core and returned +28% in the Millionaire. Swap two was right by 29.1 points. Germie Bernard was a Cheap WR pick because Roman Wilson was out, and he returned +38%. Cousins was Friday's mid-tier quarterback because of his attempts line, and he threw 41 times for 313 yards. Kansas City was the FanDuel defense and the late-swap defense, and it was the only popular defense to make money.
BEST PIVOTS
- Kyren Williams ($6,800) to Chuba Hubbard ($6,300). $500 less. 12.4 more points. Hubbard ran 28 times for 120 yards and a score at 18.2% ownership against 25.1%.
- Bijan Robinson ($8,700) to Kenneth Walker III ($8,500). $200 less. 23.6 more points at about the same ownership, 23.3% against 24.3%.
- Puka Nacua ($8,100) to Malik Nabers ($6,500). $1,600 less. 17.5 more points. Nabers was 24.0% owned against 41.7% for Nacua.
- Drake London ($7,000) to Tre Tucker ($4,700). $2,300 less. 14.5 more points at 12.6% ownership against 27.1%.
- Matthew Stafford ($6,400) to Kirk Cousins ($5,400). $1,000 less. 5.64 more points. Cousins was 9.9% owned against 16.1%.
- Carolina D/ST ($2,500) to Tennessee D/ST ($2,300). $200 less. 17 more points at 2.4% ownership against 31.8%.
HOW TO THINK LIKE THIS MORE OFTEN
- Make the cheap quarterback earn his savings. McKee saved $1,000 over Penix, and the money went to Kyren Williams. Take the punt quarterback when the upgrade he pays for has a safer floor than the quarterback you give up.
- Pay for the carries, not the team total. The Rams had the top team total, and Kyren Williams got 10 carries. Hubbard was $500 cheaper and got 28. In cash, the back with the clear workload is usually the safer pick.
- A new starting role is the best cheap value. Roman Wilson was out, and Bernard drew 12 targets at $4,000. When a cheap receiver moves into a full-time role, he can carry a lineup at any ownership.
- Popular is fine when the player hits. The top 200 carried more ownership than the field this week. They won with Nabers, Walker and Bernard and left out Nacua, Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson. Pick which chalk to fade by role and volume, not by ownership alone.
- Close games with high totals pay the bring-back. Buffalo beat Las Vegas 33 to 30, and New Orleans beat the Giants 34 to 27. More top 200 lineups used a bring-back than the field did. When both teams have to keep throwing, take a piece of each side.
Tools used for this review
Every number in this review comes off the BankrollSZN tools: the NFL Player ROI tool, the NFL Build ROI tool, this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.