Week 6 NFL DFS Top Plays: Cash, GPP, and Cheap WR

Ten games make up Sunday's main slate, because Houston and Jacksonville play the early London game. The Rams carry the highest team total at 30.9 against Arizona, and Buffalo at Las Vegas has the highest game total at 51.9. The news that matters most came out of Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts is out, Tanner McKee starts at the $4,000 minimum, and that one price lets us pay for Kenneth Walker III and a second expensive receiver. Carolina at Philadelphia projects for the most plays on the slate, about 125, and Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay projects for the fewest, about 119. We're writing on Friday, so inactives are two days away and plenty of tags below are still open. Some of the board moved since Wednesday. The injury section below has a tab for what changed. For the deep read on each game, see Wednesday's Matchups piece.

Cash is for 50/50s and double-ups, so those players have high floors, score well for their price tier, and see real volume. Popular players are fine in cash, and we won't fade anyone to be different. In GPP, ownership and correlation drive the picks. Players run from most to least expensive at every position, and you'll find DraftKings and FanDuel rankings at the end.

Injuries and News

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

High Impact Weather

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay is the one game with weather that can change a call. The forecast shows a steady 16 mph wind, gusting to about 24, through the game, and that's enough to take some air out of the deep throws. We'd go lighter on Emeka Egbuka's downfield role and on Jalon Daniels as a passer, though his legs still work, and the Steelers defense gets a small bump. Carolina at Philadelphia runs a 12 to 13 mph breeze, which doesn't move anything. Chicago at Atlanta, Arizona at the Rams and Buffalo at Las Vegas are all under a roof.

Kickoff forecasts for every game: NFL weather today

Pass Rush Mismatches

Pass rush	DL rank	Offensive line	OL rank	Line injuries
Kansas City	28	LA Chargers	32	T Rashawn Slater (IR), T Joe Alt (out), OL Trevor Penning (IR)
Baltimore	27	Cleveland	31	None
Cleveland	4	Baltimore	24	None
New England	21	NY Jets	30	None
Arizona	20	LA Rams	1	OL Alaric Jackson (IR)
Tampa Bay	32	Pittsburgh	8	None
Tennessee	15	Indianapolis	5	None

Kansas City's front isn't scary on paper, 28th on our board, but the Chargers line is last and plays without Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt and Trevor Penning. George Karlaftis has 13 pressures already, and Los Angeles gives up a sack on 10.6% of dropbacks. We like the Chiefs defense more than any other pricey unit, and Justin Herbert will be under pressure most of the day.

Cleveland's line ranks 31st and lets quarterbacks get hit on 28.6% of dropbacks. Baltimore's rush only ranks 27th, but Tavius Robinson and Mike Green have five sacks between them, so the Ravens defense is playable and Deshaun Watson takes on real sack risk.

The other side of that game is the better pass rush. Cleveland's front ranks fourth, Mason Graham has four sacks, and the Browns get home on 8.4% of dropbacks against a Ravens line ranked 24th. If Tyler Huntley starts again, the Browns defense is a cheap play we like.

Elijah Ponder has 4.5 sacks for New England, and the Jets' 30th-ranked line gives up a sack on 9.8% of dropbacks. The Patriots are seven-point favorites at home, so their defense fits the expected game script, and Geno Smith could be in for a long day.

The Rams have the top-ranked line and give up a sack on just 3.1% of dropbacks, even with Alaric Jackson on IR. Matthew Stafford should have time, so skip the Cardinals defense.

Tampa Bay's front ranks last, with a 3.5% sack rate, against Pittsburgh's eighth-ranked line. Aaron Rodgers stays clean, and the Bucs defense is a fade.

Indianapolis ranks fifth up front and gives up a sack on 4.9% of dropbacks, so the Titans defense has little to work with and Daniel Jones gets a clean pocket. You can see all 32 units on the NFL OL vs DL matchups page.

CASH

QUARTERBACK

Each tier is a third of the position's DraftKings salary range. Quarterback: pay up $6,400 and above, mid tier $5,200 to $6,300, cheap under $5,200.

Matthew Stafford ($6,400 DK, $7,800 FD) – 14% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier, and the quarterback we'd play on FanDuel. He's thrown at least 51 passes in every game since Week 3, and the books hang the highest yardage line on the slate on him at 279.5. The Rams have the highest team total, and their line ranks first. On DraftKings we'd rather save the money, but on FanDuel he's the safest quarterback for the price.

Kirk Cousins ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD) – 4% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. His attempts line is 36.5, second only to Jacoby Brissett's 38.5 on this slate, and Las Vegas is a five-point underdog at home with the game total at 51.9. He threw 52 times for 365 yards in Week 4. He doesn't run, so his floor is all passing volume, and that volume should be there.

Michael Penix Jr. ($5,000 DK, $6,900 FD) – 3% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. His rib tag is gone, and he threw 32 of Atlanta's 35 passes in Week 5. He's thrown for 223 to 256 yards in every game since Week 3, and his yardage line is 236.5. Chicago at Atlanta projects for about 124 plays, nearly three more than the average game, so his floor is safer than his price suggests. He's the quarterback we'd play if you don't need the McKee savings, and swap one at the end of this section shows why we do.

Tanner McKee ($4,000 DK, $6,000 FD) – 2% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier, and the quarterback we'd play on DraftKings. Jalen Hurts is out, so McKee starts at the minimum price, and he should throw about 30 times. His yardage line is only 193.5, and DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both questionable, so his ceiling is limited. We're taking him because the $1,000 he saves over Penix, and the $2,400 he saves over Stafford, buy Kenneth Walker III. His game also has the most projected plays on the slate, almost four above average, so he gets more snaps than a 19-point team total suggests.

Jalon Daniels ($4,800 DK, $6,700 FD) is the other cheap starter worth a look. His rushing line is 37.5 yards, and he's run 15 times for 78 yards in two starts. The wind in Tampa is the problem, so he loses the spot to McKee.

RUNNING BACK

Pay up $7,200 and above, mid tier $5,600 to $7,100, cheap under $5,600.

Bijan Robinson ($8,700 DK, $9,300 FD) – 44% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He ran for 339 yards and four touchdowns in his Week 3 and Week 4 games, then drew seven targets in Week 5. He should get about 18 carries and five targets in a fast game. He costs $200 more than Walker with a lower floor, and we can only fit one of them.

Kenneth Walker III ($8,500 DK, $8,900 FD) – 55% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier, and the core of our cash builds. He should get about 22 carries, the most on the slate, after he ran 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. Kansas City is a seven-point home favorite, and no back on the board has a safer floor. More than half the field will play him, and in cash you want to be with them.

Kyren Williams ($6,800 DK, $8,100 FD) – 15% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. He drew 28 targets in Weeks 3 to 5 and has scored in two of those three games, and he should get about 16 carries and four targets on the highest team total. On DraftKings he's a strong value. On FanDuel he costs $8,100, and Chuba Hubbard is $1,300 cheaper there.

Ashton Jeanty ($6,500 DK, $7,600 FD) – 14% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. He should get about 16 carries and five targets in the 51.9-total game. He ran only 10 times in Week 5, but he caught nine of 14 targets in Weeks 4 and 5, and that receiving work is what keeps his floor up. Las Vegas should be playing from behind, which keeps him in the passing game.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD) – 18% projected cash ownership. Mid tier, and our best FanDuel value at the position. He ran 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 before the bye, and he should get about 17 carries here. He only gets about three targets, but Carolina at Philadelphia projects for about four plays more than the average game, and that adds carries. On DraftKings he's the third back if you skip Kyren Williams.

Quinshon Judkins ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD) – 16% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. If he plays, he's the best running back value on the slate, with about 16 carries and four or five targets. His foot injury has him questionable, though, and we won't put an open tag in cash. He's a want: if he's cleared Sunday morning, move him in.

Tony Pollard ($5,400 DK, $5,600 FD) – 3% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He should get about 15 carries, and Tyjae Spears is questionable with a knee injury. He's had just one target in Week 5, though, and Tennessee's team total is under 20, so his floor rests on the carries alone. We'd rather pay up.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DK, $6,300 FD) is the back to watch. The books put his carry line at 16.5, and he ran 13 times in each of his last two games and scored in both. TreVeyon Henderson went from doubtful to questionable since Wednesday, though, and if Henderson plays, Stevenson's carries are less certain. We'd wait for Sunday's news on that one.

WIDE RECEIVER

Pay up $6,400 and above, mid tier $4,700 to $6,300, cheap under $4,700.

Puka Nacua ($8,100 DK, $9,000 FD) – 41% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He caught 17 of 24 targets for 138 yards in Week 5, and he should get about 10 targets and a 27.9% target share on the highest team total. He gets 24.2% of the Los Angeles air yards from Weeks 3 to 5, with 57 he didn't catch, so most of his value comes from catches, not depth. We'd rather play the two receivers below him and keep the $8,100.

Drake London ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD) – 45% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier, and a core play on both sites. He caught 21 passes for 408 yards in Weeks 3 to 5, and he should get about nine targets and a 28.5% target share. He gets more than half of Atlanta's air yards, 53.8%, and he's already caught more yards than he was thrown, so you're paying for the volume. His game runs nearly three plays above average, and he's $1,100 cheaper than Nacua with a similar floor. Easy call.

Garrett Wilson ($6,800 DK, $7,300 FD) – 25% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. His 29.4% target share leads the slate, and he should get about nine targets. In Week 5 he had seven catches on 11 targets for 104 yards and a score, and he gets almost half of the Jets' air yards, 48.0%. Adonai Mitchell is doubtful, so there's even more for him. New York's team total is second-lowest on the slate, so he needs volume, and he gets it.

Devaughn Vele ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD) – 16% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. He should get about eight targets and a 16.1% target share, and that climbs to 24.8% if Chris Olave sits with his illness. He gets 24.1% of the Saints' air yards and has 104 unrealized air yards, with the weekly numbers in the closing block. The Saints and Giants game projects for almost four extra plays, and he's underpriced on both sites.

Xavier Worthy ($4,600 DK, $6,100 FD) – 8% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He should get about six targets and a 17.7% target share, and that climbs to 25.2% if Rashee Rice sits with his hamstring injury. In two games before the bye he drew nine targets and got 26.7% of Kansas City's air yards, with 38 he didn't catch. He's the cheap receiver we'd play on DraftKings. On FanDuel he costs $6,100 and isn't as clear a value.

Makai Lemon ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) – 3% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He drew 17 targets from Week 3 through Week 5 and caught five of seven for 43 yards last week. He should get about six targets, and his target share climbs to 20.3% if DeVonta Smith sits. He works underneath, with 16.8% of the Eagles' air yards and almost all of it caught, so you're buying catches. A backup making his first start throws the short ones, and this game has almost four more snaps than the average one to throw them in.

TIGHT END

Pay up $5,900 and above, mid tier $4,200 to $5,800, cheap under $4,200.

Brock Bowers ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD) – 25% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He has scored in three straight games and drew 34 targets in that time. He gets 35.1% of the Raiders' air yards, and he's caught 312 of the 323, so you're buying the targets. He's worth the money in tournaments, but $7,500 is too much to pay at tight end in cash.

Isaiah Likely ($4,800 DK, $5,500 FD) – 16% projected cash ownership. Mid tier, and the DraftKings tight end we'd play. We usually punt the position, but Likely is priced like a mid-tier tight end and gets the targets of a top one: 25 in his last two games, with 11 catches for 94 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5. He should get about eight targets and a 24.2% target share, and he gets a quarter of the Giants' air yards. That's why we'd pay $700 more than the punt.

Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,100 DK, $5,200 FD) – 6% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He should get about six targets and an 18.2% target share, and KC Concepcion is questionable with a concussion. He gets 19.6% of Cleveland's air yards with 58 he didn't catch, so there's room for more. Week 5 was a dud, one catch on four targets, and Cleveland's team total is under 20. He's the punt if you can't fit Likely.

DEFENSE

Pay up $3,200 and above, mid tier $2,600 to $3,100, cheap under $2,600.

Kansas City ($3,600 DK, $4,600 FD) – 7% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier, and the defense we'd play on FanDuel. The Chargers are implied for just 17.6, lowest of any team, and they have the worst line in football. On FanDuel it's worth the money.

New Orleans ($2,600 DK, $3,700 FD) – 4% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. Jameis Winston threw 54 passes in Week 5, and he should throw about 31 times here. More passes means more chances for sacks and interceptions, and New Orleans has the pass rush edge against a Giants line ranked 25th.

Carolina ($2,500 DK, $3,800 FD) – 5% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier, and the defense we'd play on DraftKings. McKee is making his first start of the season, and Philadelphia is implied for just 19.3. At $2,500 it's the cheapest defense we'd play.

The Swaps

First, the quarterback. Tanner McKee and Kyren Williams cost $10,800. Michael Penix Jr. and Tony Pollard cost $10,400. The McKee side scores about two points more on our numbers for $400. Penix has the better game, but Pollard's floor rests on carries alone, and Kyren Williams brings four targets on the highest team total. Take McKee and spend the money at running back.

Second, the tight end. Isaiah Likely and Xavier Worthy cost $9,400. Harold Fannin Jr. and Devaughn Vele cost $9,200. The Likely side scores a little more, less than a point, for $200. That's close, so we go with the safer target count: Likely has 25 targets in two weeks, and Vele's role changes a lot depending on Olave. Take Likely. On FanDuel, where Fannin costs only $300 less than Likely, play Likely there too.

GPP

Duplication

Chicago at Atlanta projects for about 124 plays, nearly three above the average game (NFL pace of play), and the field is on the Atlanta side. Drake London ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD, 28% projected GPP ownership) and Bijan Robinson ($8,700 DK, $9,300 FD, 27% projected GPP ownership) are two of the most popular players on the slate. We'd stack the Bears instead: Caleb Williams ($6,200 DK, $7,900 FD, 9% projected GPP ownership) with Rome Odunze ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD, 6% projected GPP ownership) and Luther Burden III ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD, 8% projected GPP ownership). Williams plus two of his receivers is the base stack. Williams holds Sunday's passing line and should run five or six times, and Odunze gets 37.0% of Chicago's air yards with 91 he hasn't caught, and the weekly numbers are in the closing block. For this to hit, Williams has to come back sharp after missing three games and push the ball downfield against a team that plays from ahead. If you want a bring-back, London is the obvious choice, but a single Bears stack with no Falcon is different enough. If Williams is ruled out, skip this stack.

Uncertainty

Philadelphia's offense is wide open this week. Hurts is out, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown are all questionable, and Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring injury. That leaves a lot of open targets for Tanner McKee ($4,000 DK, $6,000 FD, 4% projected GPP ownership). If Smith sits, Makai Lemon ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD, 5% projected GPP ownership) climbs to a 20.3% target share, and Dallas Goedert ($3,900 DK, $5,100 FD, 1% projected GPP ownership) drew nine targets in Week 5. If Barkley sits, Dameon Pierce ($5,100 DK, $5,300 FD, 6% projected GPP ownership) climbs to about 13 carries. The total is under 40, so the field will skip this game, but it projects for about 125 plays, the most on the slate. McKee plus Lemon and Goedert is the stack, with Tetairoa McMillan ($7,300 DK, $7,100 FD, 10% projected GPP ownership) as the bring-back. He caught 14 balls for 192 yards and two scores in Week 4, and Carolina has to keep throwing if this game turns into a shootout.

Late Swap

Three games kick off late: Arizona at the Rams at 4:05, then Buffalo at Las Vegas and the Chargers at Kansas City at 4:25. Arizona at the Rams is the trap. Puka Nacua ($8,100 DK, $9,000 FD, 25% projected GPP ownership) and Matthew Stafford ($6,400 DK, $7,800 FD, 11% projected GPP ownership) are popular, and Trey McBride ($7,200 DK, $7,400 FD, 11% projected GPP ownership) and Michael Wilson ($6,700 DK, $6,400 FD, 10% projected GPP ownership) pull ownership from the Arizona side too. Buffalo at Las Vegas is close behind, with Josh Allen ($7,500 DK, $9,500 FD, 21% projected GPP ownership), Brock Bowers ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD, 16% projected GPP ownership) and James Cook ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD, 16% projected GPP ownership) all popular. The pivot is the Chiefs passing game. Kenneth Walker III ($8,500 DK, $8,900 FD, 32% projected GPP ownership) is where the field will be in that game, and almost nobody has Patrick Mahomes ($6,500 DK, $8,200 FD, 2% projected GPP ownership). The total is only 42.2, but Chargers at Chiefs projects for slightly more plays than the average game, and this is one of the games that could be faster than it looks. Pair Mahomes with Xavier Worthy ($4,600 DK, $6,100 FD, 10% projected GPP ownership) and Travis Kelce ($5,500 DK, $5,400 FD, 5% projected GPP ownership). Make that move only if your lineup is trailing once the 1:00 games end. If you're leading, keep your Rams or Bills. The Chiefs defense ($3,600 DK, $4,600 FD, 10% projected GPP ownership) works in the same game, because that Chargers line is the worst in football.

Building It

Don't lean on one quarterback. Williams, McKee, Mahomes and Stafford can each carry a lineup, so cap each at about 20% to 30% of lineups and cap each defense near 20%. Set randomness around 30% on a 10-game main slate so your lineups don't all look the same. Field ownership and upside split furthest at running back and quarterback. The field has Walker in about a third of lineups, which is more than his upside at that salary justifies, so use him but not everywhere. At quarterback, Mahomes and McKee can both post a big game, and very few lineups will have them.

THIS WEEK'S MODEL BETS

Two main-slate bets came from the simulation this week, and both are in the same game. Neither is a spread.

Carolina at Philadelphia, over 39.5 (-118). The simulation sees about 40 points, a hair over the number, and the projected play count is the highest on the slate. Some books now hang 38.5, so find that number if you can, and note that you're laying juice.

Philadelphia moneyline (-104). The simulation still has the Eagles winning by about a touchdown at home. The market moved toward Carolina after Hurts was ruled out, so check the current price before you bet it.

Both carry almost no stake, so the model doesn't feel strongly about either. You can find the full simulated score for each game on the NFL Monte Carlo game simulator page.

Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CHEAP WR

Receivers on the main slate priced below $5,000 on DraftKings or at $6,000 or less on FanDuel, with a projection of five targets or more. This isn't every cheap receiver, just the ones we'd use. Xavier Worthy and Makai Lemon also fit the filter, and both are covered under cash.

DraftKings & FanDuel

Rome Odunze ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD) – 6% projected GPP ownership. He drew 22 targets in Weeks 3 to 5 and gets 37.0% of Chicago's air yards, with 91 unrealized air yards and the weekly numbers in the closing block. He should get about six targets. His volume path runs through the quarterback: Caleb Williams is back on the passing line after two weeks of Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum.

Germie Bernard ($4,000 DK, $5,100 FD) – 6% projected GPP ownership. He caught six of nine targets for 80 yards in Week 5, and he should get about five targets. Roman Wilson is out, which opens a starting role. He works short, with just 8.8% of Pittsburgh's air yards, so the wind in Tampa hurts him less than the deep receivers.

Keenan Allen ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD) – 5% projected GPP ownership. He drew nine targets in Week 5 and nine in Week 3, and he should get about five or six. He gets 15.1% of Indianapolis's air yards, most of it caught, and the Colts line gives Daniel Jones time to find him underneath.

FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)

Luther Burden III ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD) – 8% projected GPP ownership. He should get about seven targets and a 20.6% target share, and he gets 26.5% of Chicago's air yards. He's $400 cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings, and he's part of our Bears stack.

Jalen Coker ($5,900 DK, $6,000 FD) – 7% projected GPP ownership. His quad tag is gone, and he should get about seven targets and a 19.1% target share in the game with the most projected plays. At $6,000 on FanDuel he's priced like a WR3.

Unrealized Air Yards

Unrealized air yards are the downfield yards a receiver was targeted for that he didn't catch. Wednesday's three were Michael Wilson, Carnell Tate and Denzel Boston. These are the next three.

Malik Nabers, Giants: 104 unrealized. Week 3: six targets, 5 air yards, 26 receiving yards. Week 4: seven targets, 113 air yards, 112 receiving yards. Week 5: 20 targets, 245 air yards, 121 receiving yards. Almost the whole gap came last week, when Jameis Winston threw 54 times, so this is a weaker call than the steady ones. He still gets 38.1% of the Giants' air yards at $6,500.

Devaughn Vele, Saints: 104 unrealized. Week 3: six targets, 94 air yards, 39 receiving yards. Week 4: nine targets, 90 air yards, 54 receiving yards. Week 5: six targets, 39 air yards, 26 receiving yards. He came up short in all three weeks, and he gets more of the targets if Olave sits.

Rome Odunze, Bears: 91 unrealized. He's our positive regression candidate this week. Week 3: six targets, 87 air yards, 44 receiving yards. Week 4: seven targets, 81 air yards, 94 receiving yards. Week 5: nine targets, 101 air yards, 40 receiving yards. Two of the three games came up short, and last week's nine targets came from two backup quarterbacks. Williams should be back, and Odunze still costs just $4,900.

RANKINGS

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.