Week 7 is final. Friday's Top Plays article built the cash pool around Jahmyr Gibbs, Jordan Love and Woody Marks. The expensive plays held up. The cheap end failed, and both swaps went the wrong way. A Jared Goff stack with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams won the Millionaire at 225.42. All scores below are DraftKings points.
CASH REVIEW
The DraftKings Build
The min-cash line was 127.16 in the $40K Screen Pass, 127.46 in the $100K Power Sweep and 128.86 in the $350K Spy. A lineup at 128.86 gets about 14.3 points from each of its nine spots. On $50,000 of salary, that is about 2.6 points for every $1,000.
| Player | Salary | DK Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love, QB | $6,000 | 17.96 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | $9,800 | 21.3 |
| Christian McCaffrey, RB | $7,600 | 22.0 |
| Woody Marks, RB | $5,600 | 9.1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | $7,800 | 27.2 |
| Malik Nabers, WR | $6,800 | 21.1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr., WR | $4,300 | 6.7 |
| Ted Hurst III, WR | $3,000 | 0.0 |
| Isaiah Likely, TE | $5,300 | 3.2 |
| Tennessee D/ST | $2,600 | 5.0 |
These are the 10 plays Friday and the Sunday Update put in the core. Five of them scored more than 14.3, and all five cost $6,000 or more. The five plays under $6,000 cost $20,800 together and scored 24.0, so the pool lost its points at the cheap end. We put two Tampa Bay receivers in cash, and Tampa Bay ran the ball 49 times. That one is on us.
What Worked
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800): nine catches on 11 targets for 153 yards, 27.2 points. Friday expected about 11 targets, and he got exactly that. It was the best score in the pool.
Quinshon Judkins ($5,400): the Sunday Update put him back in play when his tag cleared. He ran 17 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns and scored 23.4. Cleveland won 27 to 24 in Tennessee.
Christian McCaffrey ($7,600): seven carries for 39 yards and a touchdown, plus six catches on seven targets for 61 yards. He scored 22.0. Friday said the catches gave him the safest floor under $8,000, and they did.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800): 29 carries for 116 yards and five catches for 27 yards, 21.3 points. He got the volume but no touchdown. At his price, that is 2.2 points for every $1,000, below the pace a cash lineup needs.
Malik Nabers ($6,800): seven catches on nine targets for 111 yards, 21.1 points. The Giants threw 28 times and won 27 to 21.
Jordan Love ($6,000): 27 of 45 for 274 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, 17.96 points. The attempts came. That score is fine for cash, but Bo Nix scored 26.18 for $1,000 less.
What Failed
Woody Marks ($5,600): 19 carries for 66 yards and one catch for 15 yards, 9.1 points. He got the carries Friday expected. He did not score, and Houston lost 27 to 21 at home to the Giants.
Chris Godwin Jr. ($4,300) and Ted Hurst III ($3,000): Tampa Bay threw 11 passes all game and ran 49 times in a 43 to 13 win. Godwin caught four of five targets for 27 yards and scored 6.7. Hurst drew one target and scored zero.
Isaiah Likely ($5,300): two catches on four targets for 12 yards, 3.2 points. Friday expected the Giants to chase a nine-point favorite. They won instead, and they threw 28 times.
Tennessee D/ST ($2,600): 5 points. Deshaun Watson went 25 of 36 for 308 yards and ran in a touchdown. Cleveland scored 27.
The Swaps, Graded
Swap one: Friday took Love plus Marks ($11,600, 27.06 points) over Malik Willis plus Kyren Williams ($11,700, 45.12 points). That call was wrong by 18.06 points. Willis went 14 of 21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran eight times for 37 yards and a score, for 26.02 points. Friday expected the slowest game on the slate, but Miami won 28 to 25 in New York. Kyren Williams ran 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and scored 19.1.
Swap two: Friday took Likely plus Hurst ($8,300, 3.2 points) over Cade Otton plus Carnell Tate ($8,200, 10.9 points). That call was wrong by 7.7 points. Both pairs failed. Otton scored zero on one target. Tate caught five of seven targets for 69 yards.
GPP REVIEW
Millionaire: What Won
The $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire had 147,058 entries and paid $1M to first. The winning lineup scored 225.42:
| Slot | Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jared Goff | $6,800 | 22.02 | 5.5% |
| RB | Braelon Allen | $5,900 | 22.4 | 19.5% |
| RB | Tony Pollard | $5,300 | 39.5 | 4.4% |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | $7,800 | 27.2 | 19.2% |
| WR | Tee Higgins | $6,600 | 29.8 | 5.9% |
| WR | Jameson Williams | $5,800 | 26.1 | 8.9% |
| TE | Colby Parkinson | $3,000 | 9.8 | 3.9% |
| FLEX | Ashton Jeanty | $6,500 | 21.6 | 6.5% |
| DST | Tampa Bay | $2,200 | 27.0 | 4.6% |
Friday's GPP section stacked Detroit through Goff, with Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta. The winner used St. Brown in place of LaPorta, who caught one pass for 18 yards. Goff went 22 of 32 for 303 yards and two touchdowns. Jameson Williams caught five of nine targets for 91 yards and both scores. St. Brown added 153 yards. The lineup had no Packers bring-back, and Friday said you could skip it.
Pollard was the top score on the slate. He ran 25 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns and caught three passes for 26 yards. Seven of the nine players were under 10% owned, and the total ownership was 78.4%.
Second place scored 219.52, 5.9 points back. It used Watson with KC Concepcion Jr. and Harold Fannin Jr., and Pollard as the bring-back. Third place scored 218.58 with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins, plus Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews from Baltimore. The Tampa Bay defense was in 10 of the top 12 lineups. Pollard and Braelon Allen were each in eight, and Higgins and St. Brown were each in seven. Burrow was the quarterback in four, and Watson in three.
Top ROI Plays
ROI below is the return on each $20 entry for every lineup that used the player. We remove the $1M first prize, so one lineup cannot set the number. The list uses players on at least 0.5% of lineups. The full board is on the NFL Player ROI tool.
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson, CLE QB | $5,200 | 22.22 | 1.4% | +360% |
| Harold Fannin Jr., CLE TE | $4,200 | 14.1 | 1.3% | +317% |
| Tampa Bay D/ST | $2,200 | 27.0 | 4.6% | +294% |
| Tony Pollard, TEN RB | $5,300 | 39.5 | 4.4% | +264% |
| Mason Taylor, NYJ TE | $2,800 | 25.2 | 0.8% | +198% |
| Tee Higgins, CIN WR | $6,600 | 29.8 | 5.9% | +172% |
| Joe Burrow, CIN QB | $6,900 | 28.88 | 3.6% | +128% |
| KC Concepcion Jr., CLE WR | $4,400 | 26.2 | 5.0% | +123% |
| Zay Flowers, BAL WR | $6,900 | 30.7 | 4.0% | +117% |
| Caleb Douglas, MIA WR | $4,000 | 21.0 | 1.1% | +100% |
Cleveland's passing game led the board. Watson threw for 308 yards at 1.4% ownership. Concepcion caught eight of 10 targets for 129 yards and ran three times for 23 more. Fannin caught six of nine targets for 91 yards and scored only 14.1. He still returned +317%, because ROI follows the whole lineup. In the top 200, Fannin was in 14 lineups, and Watson was the quarterback in 12 of them.
Tampa Bay's defense scored 27 at $2,200. Bryce Young threw two interceptions, and Carolina scored 13. The Bucs defense and Pollard were together in 78 of the top 200 lineups.
Cincinnati won 35 to 13 in Baltimore. Burrow went 22 of 30 for 292 yards and four touchdowns. Higgins caught six of seven targets for 148 yards and a score. Flowers was the bring-back that paid: eight catches on 11 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown.
Two cheap pass catchers also paid. Mason Taylor caught five of six targets for 62 yards and two scores at $2,800. Douglas caught two passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns at $4,000.
The Chalk That Failed
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden, GB WR | $6,000 | 9.9 | 39.4% | -69% |
| Christian McCaffrey, SF RB | $7,600 | 22.0 | 38.3% | -47% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, DET RB | $9,800 | 21.3 | 35.4% | -74% |
| Jordan Love, GB QB | $6,000 | 17.96 | 28.3% | -65% |
| George Kittle, SF TE | $5,700 | 15.8 | 26.0% | -53% |
| Woody Marks, HOU RB | $5,600 | 9.1 | 23.2% | -71% |
| Bijan Robinson, ATL RB | $8,500 | 17.2 | 20.7% | -70% |
| Christian Watson, GB WR | $7,000 | 10.7 | 20.6% | -72% |
| Tucker Kraft, GB TE | $4,700 | 14.8 | 20.5% | -45% |
| Braelon Allen, NYJ RB | $5,900 | 22.4 | 19.5% | -24% |
All 10 of the most popular players lost money. Five of them played in Green Bay at Detroit: Golden, Gibbs, Love, Christian Watson and Kraft. That game had the highest total on the slate at 51.5, and it ended 20 to 17. Golden caught six of 12 targets for 39 yards. Watson caught five of eight for 57.
Braelon Allen came closest to a profit. He ran 17 times for 104 yards and caught six passes for 30 yards. Bijan Robinson got 20 carries but gained 63 yards on them.
No defense over 5% ownership made money. Tennessee was the most popular at 14.6% and returned -54%. The Jets returned -75%, Minnesota -62%, Houston -72% and Cleveland -69%. Las Vegas returned -75%, and Cincinnati -45%.
Ownership Breakdown
The top lineups were far less popular than the field this week. The average top 200 lineup had a total ownership of 100.1%. The average lineup in the full field had 137.8%. The top 200 were 37.7 points lower.
Low-owned players carried the top. Pollard was 4.4% owned in the field and in 67.5% of the top 200. The Bucs defense went from 4.6% to 66.0%, and Higgins from 5.9% to 45.0%. Concepcion went from 5.0% to 29.5%, Flowers from 4.0% to 24.5% and Burrow from 3.6% to 23.0%.
The popular players dropped out. Golden went from 39.4% in the field to 12.0% of the top 200. Gibbs went from 35.4% to 9.0%, and Love from 28.3% to 13.0%. Marks went from 23.2% to 7.5%, and Hurst from 19.1% to 2.5%. Jalen Coker was on 18.5% of field lineups and on none of the top 200. He caught one of four targets for 9 yards.
Stacking Notes
- 92.0% of the top 200 paired the quarterback with at least one teammate. In the field, 90.5% did.
- Two teammates with the quarterback was the most common build at the top: 94 of the top 200. 77 used one, 13 used three or more, and 16 used none.
- 60.0% of the top 200 used a bring-back, against 53.8% of the field. In the field, a receiver plus tight end bring-back was on 3.1% of lineups and returned +7%. A lone receiver or lone running back bring-back returned -42%.
- Quarterback plus two receivers was on 12.2% of field lineups and returned -33%. Quarterback plus one receiver was on 36.2% and returned -54%.
- Burrow was the quarterback in 46 of the top 200 at 3.6% field ownership. Watson had 32 at 1.4%. Love had 26 at 28.3%, Goff 21 and Nix 17.
High-Stakes, Small Field
The $350K Spy is single entry at $100, with 3,888 entries and $100K to first. The winner scored 195.18 with Burrow, Flowers, Pollard, Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Tre Tucker, Justin Jefferson, Mark Andrews and the Titans defense. Burrow had no Bengals teammate with him, only two Ravens as the bring-back. Pollard was in six of the top 10 lineups, and the Bucs defense was in five. Burrow, Love and Tyler Huntley were each the quarterback in two.
The small field leaned even harder into the chalk that failed. Hurst went from 19.1% in the Millionaire to 32.3% in the Spy. Love went from 28.3% to 35.5%, and Marks from 23.2% to 29.2%. Golden went from 39.4% to 46.7%, and McCaffrey from 38.3% to 45.1%. Braelon Allen climbed from 19.5% to 24.4%, and in the Spy he returned +8%.
WHERE WE MISSED
- Marks over Pollard. Friday wrote that we would rather have Marks for $300 more than Pollard. Pollard scored 39.5 and Marks scored 9.1. Pollard got 25 carries and three touchdowns in a game that ended 27 to 24.
- The Tampa Bay passing game. Friday's cash core used Godwin and Hurst, and the GPP section stacked Baker Mayfield with Godwin and Otton. Mayfield went 7 of 11 for 64 yards and a touchdown, 6.66 points. Tampa Bay won by 30 and ran 49 times. Jalen Coker, the bring-back, scored 1.9 at 18.5% ownership and returned -88%.
- Likely and the chase script. Friday paid $2,200 more for Likely than for Otton because the Giants should be behind. The Giants led, won 27 to 21, and gave Likely four targets.
- The Tennessee defense. Friday picked it for Cleveland's weak line. Watson threw for 308 yards, and Cleveland scored 27. The Bucs defense cost $400 less and scored 22 more points.
- Both swaps. Swap one was wrong by 18.06 points and swap two by 7.7. The Willis side scored because Miami and the Jets combined for 53 points.
- The late swap quarterback. Jacoby Brissett threw 48 times, more than Friday expected, but he scored 16.48. Michael Wilson caught four of eight targets for 55 yards. Courtland Sutton caught three of five for 45.
- Cheap WR. Malik Washington, Keenan Allen, Wan'Dale Robinson and Jordan Addison scored between 4.3 and 6.5 each. Washington and Allen each drew three targets. Miami threw 21 times, and Indianapolis threw 22.
Friday also got some calls right. The Goff, Jameson Williams and St. Brown stack won the Millionaire, and Friday named all three. St. Brown drew the 11 targets Friday expected and scored 27.2. Trey McBride was the late-swap tight end, and he caught 10 of 13 targets for 111 yards and a score. He scored 30.1 at 1.9% ownership and returned +41%. Tre Tucker was an unrealized air yards pick, and he drew 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. Bo Nix was Friday's mid-tier DraftKings quarterback, and he scored 26.18 with 73 rushing yards.
BEST PIVOTS
- Woody Marks ($5,600) to Tony Pollard ($5,300). $300 less. 30.4 more points. Pollard was 4.4% owned against 23.2%.
- Tennessee D/ST ($2,600) to Tampa Bay D/ST ($2,200). $400 less. 22 more points at 4.6% ownership against 14.6%.
- Matthew Golden ($6,000) to KC Concepcion Jr. ($4,400). $1,600 less. 16.3 more points. Concepcion was 5.0% owned against 39.4%.
- Christian Watson ($7,000) to Tee Higgins ($6,600). $400 less. 19.1 more points at 5.9% ownership against 20.6%.
- Jordan Love ($6,000) to Bo Nix ($5,000). $1,000 less. 8.22 more points. Nix was 6.4% owned against 28.3%.
- Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800) to Bucky Irving ($6,100). $3,700 less. 5.7 more points. Irving ran 24 times for 106 yards and two scores at 14.6% ownership against 35.4%.
HOW TO THINK LIKE THIS MORE OFTEN
- Cheap pass catchers need a team that has to throw. Tampa Bay won by 30 and threw 11 times. Godwin, Hurst and Otton scored 6.7 together. Before you trust a cheap receiver, ask what happens to his targets if his team gets a big lead.
- A chase script is only a guess. Likely needed the Giants to trail. They won. When a play depends on one game script, keep it out of cash or pair it with a safer floor.
- A small price gap is a weak reason for a strong opinion. Friday passed on Pollard because he drew one target in each of the last two weeks. He got 25 carries and three touchdowns, and he outscored Marks by 30.4 for $300 less. When two cheap backs are this close in price, either one can win the spot.
- The highest total draws the crowd. Five of the 10 most popular players came from Green Bay at Detroit, and the game ended 20 to 17. The top 200 were 37.7 points less owned than the field. Take one or two pieces of the top game and leave the rest to the field.
- Spread your defense exposure. No defense over 5% ownership made money. The best defense cost $2,200 and was on 4.6% of lineups. Put some of your entries on cheap defenses that the field ignores.
Tools used for this review
Every number in this review comes off the BankrollSZN tools: the NFL Player ROI tool, the NFL Build ROI tool, this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.