Week 7 NFL DFS Top Plays: Cash, GPP, and Cheap WR

Sunday's main slate has 10 games, because Pittsburgh and New Orleans play the early game in London. No team is implied for more than Detroit's 27.2, and Green Bay at Detroit tops the board with a 51.5 total. Jahmyr Gibbs costs $9,800, most of the field is going to roster him, and your job this week is finding the money to join them. That Packers and Lions game should also run the most snaps, about 127, while Miami at the Jets sits at the bottom with about 118. Inactives don't post until Sunday, and plenty of the injury tags below could go either way. Some of the board moved since Wednesday. The injury section below has a tab for what changed. For the game-by-game breakdown, go back to Wednesday's Matchups piece.

Cash means your 50/50s and head-to-heads. The players there have safe floors, they score well against others at the same price, and the volume holds up. Chalk doesn't scare us in those contests, and fading a popular player just to be different is a good way to lose. Tournaments are another story, and the GPP section leans on ownership and stacking. Each position is listed by salary, highest first, with DraftKings and FanDuel rankings to close.

Injuries and News

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

High Impact Weather

No main-slate game has weather strong enough to move a decision this week. Tampa Bay at Carolina is the closest call, with a light breeze of about eight or nine miles an hour, and that changes nothing. San Francisco at Atlanta and the Giants at Houston play with the roof closed, and Green Bay at Detroit, Indianapolis at Minnesota and the Rams at Las Vegas are indoors.

Kickoff forecasts for every game: NFL weather today

Pass Rush Mismatches

Pass rush	DL rank	Offensive line	OL rank	Line injuries
Tennessee	7	Cleveland	32	None
Minnesota	1	Indianapolis	12	None
Cincinnati	5	Baltimore	24	None
Houston	8	NY Giants	25	None
Cleveland	4	Tennessee	21	None
NY Giants	28	Houston	6	None
Las Vegas	10	LA Rams	1	None
Arizona	14	Denver	4	None

Cleveland's line sits last in our ranks, and it gives up a sack on 12.1% of dropbacks. Tennessee's front is seventh. Jeffery Simmons has four sacks and 12 pressures, and Jacob Martin adds 3.5 sacks on 11 pressures. That's the cheapest good defense on the board, and Deshaun Watson should expect to get hit all afternoon.

Minnesota has the top front in our ranks and sends a blitz on 67.1% of dropbacks. Dallas Turner has 5.5 sacks already, on 22 pressures. The Colts line is 12th, middle of the pack. The Vikings defense is a strong pricey option, and Daniel Jones will have to get rid of the ball fast.

The Bengals front is fifth in our ranks, and it gets a sack on 9.2% of dropbacks. Jonathan Allen has 10 pressures, Dexter Lawrence has nine, and Boye Mafe has three sacks. Baltimore's line is 24th. The Bengals defense is a fine mid-priced play, and whoever starts for the Ravens is in for a rough day.

Will Anderson has 7.5 sacks and 18 pressures, and Danielle Hunter has 14 pressures, and Houston's front is eighth. New York's line sits 25th. New York gives up a sack on 7.8% of dropbacks, and Houston is a nine-point favorite. The Texans defense fits that game script, and J.J. McCarthy is going to be under pressure.

Cleveland's front ranks fourth. Maliek Collins has 3.5 sacks, and Mason Graham has four in just three games. The Titans line is 21st and lets quarterbacks get hit on 25.7% of dropbacks. The Browns defense is in play too, so this one game gives you two cheap defenses.

Houston's line ranks sixth and lets quarterbacks get hit on only 19.2% of dropbacks, and the Giants front is 28th with Brian Burns on IR. C.J. Stroud should have time. Skip the Giants defense.

The Rams have the best line in our ranks and give up a sack on just 3.8% of dropbacks. Maxx Crosby has 24 pressures but only two sacks. Matthew Stafford stays clean, so leave the Raiders defense alone.

Denver's line ranks fourth and gives up a sack on 4.1% of dropbacks, against an Arizona front ranked 14th. Bo Nix should be comfortable, and the Cardinals defense is a fade. You can compare all 32 lines and fronts on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.

CASH

QUARTERBACK

We split each position's DraftKings salary range into thirds. Quarterback: pay up $5,900 and above, mid tier $5,000 to $5,800, cheap under $5,000.

Jordan Love ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD) - 36% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He's our quarterback on DraftKings and FanDuel. He threw for 367 yards on 31 passes in Week 5, then went 23 of 41 for 276 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 and ran one in too. No quarterback has a higher yardage line than his 281.5, he should throw about 36 times, and his game projects for about five more plays than the average one. His bad day is still a usable score, and that's why we'll pay $1,300 over the cheap options. On FanDuel, Kirk Cousins ($5,800 DK, $6,800 FD) is the cheaper way to get a high attempt total if you need the money.

Bo Nix ($5,000 DK, $7,200 FD) - 4% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. Week 6 was ugly, 107 yards on 27 passes, and his yardage prop sits at just 220.5. He should throw about 32 times and run about four, and his line ranks fourth in our ranks, so he gets a clean pocket against Arizona. At $5,000 on DraftKings we're fine with him. At $7,200 on FanDuel, skip him.

J.J. McCarthy ($4,800 DK, $6,700 FD) - 2% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. The Giants named him the starter this week, after he threw for 243 yards on 21 passes in Week 6 while splitting the job with Jameis Winston. He should throw about 33 times, and his rushing line is 23.5 yards. The Giants have the lowest team total on the slate, though, and Houston's pass rush is a bad draw, so we'd keep him for tournaments.

Malik Willis ($4,700 DK, $6,600 FD) - 2% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He has the highest rushing line of any quarterback on the slate at 30.5 yards, and in Week 5 he ran eight times for 74 yards and a touchdown. That gives him a real floor at $4,700. The problem is the setting: Miami's team total is 18.4, and his game projects for the fewest plays on the slate. The first swap below shows why we pay up instead.

Baltimore has no passing line at any book. Lamar Jackson is questionable with his ankle, and Tyler Huntley threw every pass in Weeks 5 and 6, so we aren't picking a Ravens quarterback until Sunday.

RUNNING BACK

Pay up $7,900 and above, mid tier $5,900 to $7,800, cheap under $5,900.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800 DK, $9,800 FD) - 88% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier, and the first name in our cash builds. He ran 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 and caught five passes for 56 more. He should get about 21 carries and six targets on the highest team total on the slate, in its fastest game. Nobody on the slate has a higher floor. Fading him means betting the most popular player on the slate busts, and we won't make that bet in cash.

Bijan Robinson ($8,500 DK, $9,400 FD) - 40% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He only touched the ball 11 times in Week 6, a week after 17 carries and seven targets. Expect 17 or 18 carries and five targets, more like 22 carries if Brian Robinson sits with his hamstring. We'd call him a want. With Gibbs in the build, $8,500 is hard to fit next to him.

Christian McCaffrey ($7,600 DK, $8,700 FD) - 31% projected cash ownership. Mid tier, and our second back. He ran 16 times for 64 yards and two scores in Week 6 and caught nine of 10 targets. He should get about 15 carries and seven targets with a 19.5% target share, and that rises to 25.1% if Mike Evans sits. The catches give him the safest floor of any back under $8,000. He's $900 cheaper than Bijan Robinson with a similar floor, so we'd take him.

Woody Marks ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD) - 5% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier, and the back that pays for Gibbs. David Montgomery was downgraded to doubtful on Friday, after salaries were set, so Houston's backfield should be his. He ran 15 times in both Week 5 and Week 6, and he should get about 15 carries and three targets. Houston has the second-highest team total on the slate and is a nine-point favorite. At $5,600 he's underpriced for that job, and the field hasn't caught up.

Quinshon Judkins ($5,400 DK, $6,500 FD) - 4% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He missed Week 6 with an ankle injury and is questionable again. If he's cleared, he should get about 12 carries and three or four targets, and the catches make him worth more than $5,400. We're not taking an unresolved tag into cash, so check on him Sunday before you lock.

Tony Pollard ($5,300 DK, $5,600 FD) - 5% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He should get about 16 carries, and he ran 19 times for 76 yards in Week 6. He drew a single target in Week 5 and another in Week 6, though, and Tennessee is implied for about 19 points. We'd rather have Marks for $300 more.

WIDE RECEIVER

Pay up $6,600 and above, mid tier $4,800 to $6,500, cheap under $4,800.

Puka Nacua ($8,400 DK, $9,100 FD) - 56% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He should get about 12 targets with a 32.6% target share, tops among all receivers here, and he gets 39.6% of the Rams' air yards. He caught 17 balls in Week 5. He's also questionable with a calf injury, and $8,400 is too much to risk on a tag in cash. If the Rams clear him, put him back in.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD) - 41% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. We're building around him on DraftKings. He drew 11 targets in both Week 4 and Week 5, Detroit had its bye in Week 6, and he should see about 11 again with a 28.6% target share. Most of his 24.7% of the Lions' air yards turn into catches, so you're paying for volume. He plays in the best game on the slate, and you get a full point for every one of those catches. On FanDuel he's $9,000 and not as good a value.

Drake London ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD) - 31% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He should get about nine targets and a 28.0% target share, and he gets 47.7% of Atlanta's air yards. Week 6 was quiet, four catches on 10 targets for 62 yards, but he went for 118 yards the week before. He's the receiver we'd play if Nacua sits and you need to use that salary.

Malik Nabers ($6,800 DK, $7,900 FD) - 17% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. He's in our DraftKings core. He caught 12 of 15 targets for 165 yards in Week 6 and drew 42 targets in Weeks 4 to 6. He should see about nine targets with a 26.9% target share, and 39.9% of New York's air yards go his way, 105 of them unrealized. Houston is a nine-point favorite, so the Giants should be throwing all second half. At $6,800, that target volume is underpriced.

Carnell Tate ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. Expect about seven targets with a 23.4% target share. His 56.6% of Tennessee's air yards is the largest share any receiver has on the slate. He has 139 unrealized air yards, broken out in the closing block. Tennessee passes less than any team on this slate in close games, so his floor is thin, and we'd only call him a want.

Chris Godwin Jr. ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD) - 4% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He drew eight targets in Week 6 and should get about six here, with a 16.7% target share that jumps to 24.0% if Emeka Egbuka misses with his concussion. He works short, with 15.7% of Tampa Bay's air yards and more yards caught than thrown, so you're buying catches. Underneath receivers like him gain the most if Baker Mayfield plays. If Egbuka is ruled out, Godwin moves into our core.

Ted Hurst III ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier. He drew six targets in Week 6 and should get five or six here, and his target share would jump from 11.8% to 17.0% without Egbuka. He gets 21.9% of Tampa Bay's air yards on just nine targets, so the role is downfield. At the minimum price on DraftKings, he's the cheapest receiver we'd play.

TIGHT END

Pay up $6,000 and above, mid tier $4,200 to $5,900, cheap under $4,200.

Brock Bowers ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD) - 14% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. He drew 30 targets in Weeks 4 to 6 and found the end zone twice. He should get about nine targets and a 25.0% target share, and he gets 33.2% of the Raiders' air yards. We love the usage. We just can't spend $7,700 at tight end and still afford Gibbs, so he's a tournament play this week.

Isaiah Likely ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD) - 18% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. We'd play him on DraftKings and FanDuel even though we usually punt the position. He drew 36 targets in Weeks 4 to 6, he should get eight or nine more with a 25.3% target share, and 27.3% of New York's air yards go to him, with 86 unrealized. The Giants have the lowest team total on the slate, but they'll be chasing a nine-point favorite, and that's how a tight end gets 10 targets. Swap two shows why he's worth $2,200 more than the punt.

Cade Otton ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. Cheap tier, and the punt. He should get five or six targets and a 14.6% target share. He saw only two targets in Week 6 with Jalon Daniels throwing, and he works underneath, with 9.0% of Tampa Bay's air yards. He gains the most of any Buc if Mayfield plays. He's the tight end to use if the Likely money isn't there.

DEFENSE

Pay up $3,000 and above, mid tier $2,500 to $2,900, cheap under $2,500.

Houston ($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD) - 13% projected cash ownership. Pay-up tier. On FanDuel, this is where we'd spend. The Giants are implied for 17.3, the lowest on the slate, and McCarthy should throw about 33 times behind a line ranked 25th. Will Anderson already has 7.5 sacks.

Cleveland ($2,800 DK, $4,600 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. Cam Ward throws behind a line ranked 21st, and the Browns front is fourth. We like Tennessee a bit more, and it's $200 cheaper.

Tennessee ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Mid tier. This is our DraftKings defense. Watson should throw about 30 times behind the league's worst line, and that's a lot of dropbacks for a pass rush that gets home. At $3,200 on FanDuel, it's also the value pick if Houston doesn't fit.

Miami ($2,300 DK, $3,000 FD) is the only cheap defense we'd consider. New York's line is 30th in our ranks, but the Dolphins front isn't much better, so it's a punt and nothing more.

The Swaps

First, quarterback. Jordan Love and Woody Marks cost $11,600. Malik Willis and Kyren Williams cost $11,700. The Love side scores more and costs $100 less. Willis brings the legs, but Miami has a low team total in the slowest game on the slate, and Kyren Williams had just 10 carries in Week 6. Take Love and Marks.

Second, tight end. Isaiah Likely and Ted Hurst III cost $8,300. Cade Otton and Carnell Tate cost $8,200. For $100 more, the Likely pair comes out slightly ahead. That's close, so we break the tie on targets: Likely has seen 11 or more targets three weeks running, and Tate plays for the team that passes the least on this slate when the game is close. We're taking Likely. FanDuel makes it simpler, because there he costs just $600 more than Otton.

GPP

Duplication

Expect about 127 snaps in Green Bay at Detroit, roughly five above a normal game (NFL pace of play). Most lineups will get there through Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800 DK, $9,800 FD, 52% projected GPP ownership), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD, 25% projected GPP ownership) and Jordan Love ($6,000 DK, $7,600 FD, 22% projected GPP ownership). Gibbs is a $9,800 player, and the field tends to play stars even more than we show, so expect his real number to land higher. We'd stack Detroit through the quarterback instead. Jared Goff ($6,800 DK, $8,000 FD, 4% projected GPP ownership) threw for 412 yards on 52 passes in Week 4 and should throw about 36 times here. Pair him with Jameson Williams ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD, 6% projected GPP ownership), who gets 33.0% of Detroit's air yards with 105 he didn't catch, and Sam LaPorta ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD, 11% projected GPP ownership), who caught 13 balls for 172 yards and two scores in Weeks 4 and 5. That's Goff plus two of his receivers. For this to hit, Detroit has to score through the air instead of through Gibbs, and in a 51.5 total that's a real possibility. You can skip the bring-back, since the Packers receivers are both carrying injury tags.

Uncertainty

Tampa Bay's passing game is wide open. Baker Mayfield ($5,500 DK, $7,100 FD, 3% projected GPP ownership) is questionable with his thumb, and four books have hung Sunday's passing line on him, so expect about 33 throws. The field remembers Jalon Daniels throwing for 164 yards on 43 passes in Week 6 and will stay away. Emeka Egbuka has a concussion and Bucky Irving has an illness, so Mayfield could be throwing to a short list. If Egbuka sits, Chris Godwin Jr. ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD, 6% projected GPP ownership) moves up to a 24.0% target share. Cade Otton ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD, 10% projected GPP ownership) works the middle of the field, and Ted Hurst III ($3,000 DK, $4,900 FD, 8% projected GPP ownership) climbs to 17.0% without Egbuka. Mayfield plus Godwin and Otton is the stack. Expect the cheap pieces to come in under those numbers, since projected ownership on cheap players tends to run high. Tampa Bay at Carolina should run about 125 plays, three over a typical game, and Jalen Coker ($6,100 DK, $6,200 FD, 12% projected GPP ownership) is the bring-back after his 13 targets in Week 6. If Mayfield is ruled out, drop the whole idea.

Late Swap

The late window has three games: Denver at Arizona at 4:05, then Green Bay at Detroit and the Rams at Las Vegas at 4:25. Green Bay at Detroit is the trap, with the field on Gibbs, St. Brown and Jordan Love. The Rams game hinges on Puka Nacua ($8,400 DK, $9,100 FD, 33% projected GPP ownership), who is questionable with a calf injury and still the second most popular player on the slate. Our pivot is Denver at Arizona. The total is only 43.9, but expect about two more plays than a normal game, and it could play faster than the total suggests. Jacoby Brissett ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD, 1% projected GPP ownership) has an attempts line of 36.5, tied for the highest on the slate, and he threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns on 47 passes in Week 5. Stack him with Trey McBride ($7,400 DK, $7,200 FD, 9% projected GPP ownership), who should get about 10 targets, and Michael Wilson ($6,200 DK, $6,400 FD, 7% projected GPP ownership). For a bring-back, Courtland Sutton ($4,700 DK, $5,800 FD, 4% projected GPP ownership) moves up to a 19.1% target share if Jaylen Waddle sits. This pivot is for lineups that are chasing after the early games. If you're out in front at 4:00, hold what you have.

Building It

Don't put all your entries on one quarterback. Goff, Mayfield, Brissett and Jordan Love all have a ceiling, so hold each to roughly 20% to 30% of your lineups and any single defense to about 20%. With 10 games on the main slate, set randomness near 30% so your lineups don't come out as copies. Running back is where the crowd and the upside disagree most. The field has Gibbs in about half its lineups, more than he needs to be at $9,800, so use him and still leave him out of plenty. Mayfield and Brissett are the quarterbacks with real ceilings that hardly anyone will roster.

CHEAP WR

Main-slate receivers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings or at $6,000 or less on FanDuel, with a projection of five targets or more. This isn't every cheap receiver, just the ones we'd use. Chris Godwin Jr., Ted Hurst III and Carnell Tate also fit the filter, and all three are covered under cash.

DraftKings & FanDuel

Malik Washington ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD) - 4% projected GPP ownership. He should see about six targets with a 21.5% target share, rising to 25.6% if Caleb Douglas sits with his ankle injury. He caught six of eight targets in Week 5, Miami sat out Week 6 on its bye, and he gets 31.6% of Miami's air yards. The game is slow, so his path to volume is Douglas missing.

Keenan Allen ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD) - 5% projected GPP ownership. He drew 20 targets in Weeks 5 and 6, including eight catches for 82 yards on 11 last week. Expect six or seven again, and his 17.9% target share rises to 21.3% if Tyler Warren sits with his groin injury. He gets 17.0% of the Colts' air yards, so it's catch volume, and Minnesota's blitz forces the quick throws he lives on.

Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,600 DK, $5,200 FD) - 5% projected GPP ownership. He drew seven targets in each of Weeks 5 and 6, and he should get about six with a 19.3% target share. He gets 19.8% of Tennessee's air yards with 32 unrealized. He's the cheaper Titans receiver, and $5,200 on FanDuel is a fair price.

FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)

Jordan Addison ($5,300 DK, $5,900 FD) - 5% projected GPP ownership. His hamstring tag is gone. Look for six targets with an 18.9% target share, or 22.0% if T.J. Hockenson sits with his concussion. He's priced like a WR3 on FanDuel.

Tre Tucker ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD) - 5% projected GPP ownership. He caught five passes for 97 yards and two scores in Week 6, and he should get five or six targets in a game that projects for about three extra plays. He has 110 unrealized air yards, broken out in the closing block.

Unrealized Air Yards

Take the air yards on every pass thrown to a receiver, subtract what he caught, and the leftover is his unrealized total. Denzel Boston, Michael Wilson and Matthew Golden were Wednesday's names, so here are three more.

Laquon Treadwell, Colts: 144 unrealized, and our positive regression candidate. Week 4: six targets, 47 air yards, 42 receiving yards. Week 5: eight targets, 125 air yards, 34 receiving yards. Week 6: five targets, 69 air yards, 21 receiving yards. Week 5 holds most of it, but he's fallen short in all three games. He costs just $3,300, and the targets have been there all three weeks.

Carnell Tate, Titans: 139 unrealized. Week 4: 12 targets, 160 air yards, 145 receiving yards. Week 5: five targets, 113 air yards, 6 receiving yards. Week 6: seven targets, 87 air yards, 70 receiving yards. Nearly all of it came in one Week 5 dud, so this is the weaker call of the three. He still gets 56.6% of Tennessee's air yards.

Tre Tucker, Raiders: 110 unrealized. Week 4: eight targets, 129 air yards, 44 receiving yards. Week 5: five targets, 55 air yards, 41 receiving yards. Week 6: seven targets, 108 air yards, 97 receiving yards. Week 4 holds most of it, and in Week 6 he caught the deep ones. He gets 29.2% of the Raiders' air yards.

RANKINGS

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.