Week 8 is final, except for Chicago at Seattle on Monday night. Friday's Top Plays article built cash around Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Allen. Allen, Gibbs, Bhayshul Tuten, Puka Nacua and Keenan Allen paid. Drake London scored 1.8. The Millionaire went to a Joe Burrow lineup with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins that scored 259.08. Cincinnati beat Tennessee 43 to 36, and that game decided the slate. All scores below are DraftKings points.
WEEK 8 AT A GLANCE
| Friday call | Week 8 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Cash plays that beat their position average | 9 of 21 | 56 of 112 |
| Cash swaps | 1 of 2 | 5 of 10 |
| Line calls | 7 of 12 | 7 of 12 |
Season covers Weeks 4 to 8. We started to grade line calls in Week 8. Millionaire winner: 259.08 with Burrow, Chase and Higgins. Top ROI play: Burrow at +238%. Biggest miss: we took Chase Brown from the Cincinnati offense and not the passing game. Our GPP lineup scored 177.78 and cashed. Lamar Jackson, Drake London, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hunter Henry all got hurt during their games.
CASH REVIEW
The DraftKings Build
We did not enter a cash lineup from Friday's pool this week. Friday gave a pool of cash plays and two swaps, so we grade each play on its own and do not add up a lineup total.
The cash lines on the main slate were 143.98 in the $400K Spy, 145.5 in the $40K Screen Pass and 148.08 in the $200K Power Sweep.
We grade each play against its own position. The position average is the points per $1,000 of salary for every player at that position on at least 0.5% of Millionaire lineups. This week it was 2.92 at quarterback, 2.21 at running back, 1.96 at receiver, 2.23 at tight end and 2.41 at defense. That way a $4,000 tight end and a $9,500 back each face a fair bar.
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Per $1K | Beat Pos Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Josh Allen | $7,700 | 27.56 | 3.58 | Yes |
| QB Dak Prescott | $6,300 | 19.8 | 3.14 | Yes |
| QB Jacoby Brissett | $5,700 | 4.46 | 0.78 | No |
| QB Justin Herbert | $5,000 | 9.78 | 1.96 | No |
| RB Jahmyr Gibbs | $9,500 | 27.8 | 2.93 | Yes |
| RB Bijan Robinson | $8,500 | 7.6 | 0.89 | No |
| RB Chase Brown | $6,300 | 17.1 | 2.71 | Yes |
| RB Bhayshul Tuten | $5,900 | 32.9 | 5.58 | Yes |
| RB Rhamondre Stevenson | $5,600 | 12.0 | 2.14 | No |
| WR Puka Nacua | $8,600 | 25.0 | 2.91 | Yes |
| WR Drake London | $7,000 | 1.8 | 0.26 | No |
| WR DK Metcalf | $5,400 | 1.4 | 0.26 | No |
| WR Keenan Allen | $4,500 | 13.7 | 3.04 | Yes |
| WR Kendrick Bourne | $3,900 | 3.9 | 1.00 | No |
| TE Trey McBride | $7,400 | 20.2 | 2.73 | Yes |
| TE Hunter Henry | $4,300 | 6.0 | 1.40 | No |
| TE Brenton Strange | $4,000 | 7.5 | 1.88 | No |
| TE Mark Andrews | $3,400 | 4.4 | 1.29 | No |
| DST Cincinnati | $3,800 | 4 | 1.05 | No |
| DST Pittsburgh | $3,300 | 19 | 5.76 | Yes |
| DST Detroit | $2,700 | 6 | 2.22 | No |
Nine of the 21 cash plays beat their position average. Over Weeks 4 to 8, the Friday cash pool is 56 of 112, an even split. The pool lists four or five names at each position, so the first choices matter more. Friday named nine of them: Josh Allen, Gibbs, Chase Brown, Tuten, Nacua, London, Keenan Allen, Strange and Detroit. Six of the nine beat their position average. Stevenson came from the Sunday Update, after TreVeyon Henderson was out.
What Worked
Josh Allen ($7,700): 21 of 34 for 289 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He added 30 yards and a touchdown on seven carries. Buffalo won 36 to 10. Friday paid up for his legs, and the rushing touchdown was 6 of his 27.56 points.
Bhayshul Tuten ($5,900): 16 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown, plus two catches for 55 yards and a second score. He scored 32.9, the best return in the pool. Jacksonville won 42 to 7, so the clock stayed on the ground.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,500): 23 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown. He caught two of four targets for 15 yards. Friday expected about 22 carries, and he got 23. At the top salary on the slate, he still beat the running back average.
Puka Nacua ($8,600): 11 catches on 12 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, 25.0 points. The Rams threw only 25 times, and Nacua still saw 12 of them.
Keenan Allen ($4,500): seven catches on seven targets for 67 yards, 13.7 points. Indianapolis lost 42 to 7 and threw 30 times. He was the cheap catch volume Friday asked for.
What Failed
Drake London ($7,000): one catch on six targets for 8 yards. He left in the first quarter for a concussion check, with no catches on two targets at that point. He came back and drew four more targets. Michael Penix Jr. went 8 of 24 for 125 yards with four interceptions, and Atlanta lost 16 to 0. Friday expected nine or ten targets.
DK Metcalf ($5,400): one catch on six targets for 4 yards. Pittsburgh won 27 to 6 and threw 25 times. Friday called him a positive regression candidate. The targets came. The yards did not.
Brenton Strange ($4,000): two catches on two targets for 55 yards, 7.5 points. Jacksonville threw 17 passes in the 42 to 7 win and ran the clock with Tuten.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600): 19 carries for 82 yards and three catches for 8 yards, 12.0 points. The carries we wanted showed up. He did not score, and New England threw only 20 times.
Chase Brown ($6,300): 12 carries for 55 yards and eight catches on nine targets for 46 yards. He scored 17.1. The catches held his floor, as Friday said. Burrow threw five touchdown passes, and none went to Brown.
Bijan Robinson ($8,500): 19 carries for 76 yards and no catches on one target, 7.6 points. Atlanta lost 16 to 0, and the catches Friday counted on did not come.
Detroit D/ST ($2,700): three sacks and 6 points. Minnesota scored 15. Detroit's 2.22 per $1,000 sat just under the defense average of 2.41. Pittsburgh, our FanDuel defense, scored 19 on DraftKings for $3,300 with eight sacks.
The Swaps, Graded
Swap one: Friday took Josh Allen plus Keenan Allen (41.26 points) over Justin Herbert plus Zay Flowers (9.78 points). We took the right side by 31.48 points. Herbert went 24 of 32 for 257 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Flowers drew five targets and caught none of them.
Swap two: Friday took Brenton Strange plus Drake London (9.3 points) over Trey McBride plus Kendrick Bourne (24.1 points). That call cost 14.8 points. McBride caught seven of eight targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. Friday said London was the surer bet for targets. London got six targets and one catch.
GPP REVIEW
Our GPP Lineup
We built our GPP lineup around Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown. Wan'Dale Robinson was the bring-back from Tennessee.
The lineup used all $50,000 and scored 177.78. It finished 228th in the contest above and won $400. The same lineup finished 6,174th of 147,058 entries in the Millionaire, inside the 30,413 paid places. That was 81.30 points behind the Millionaire winner.
Burrow (45.48), Chase (34.1), Braelon Allen (26.3), the Pittsburgh defense (19.0) and Robinson (16.7) carried it. Burrow was on 10.3% of lineups in that contest.
Four spots cost us, and injuries hit two of them. The winners played Tee Higgins as the second Bengal. We played Chase Brown, and Higgins outscored him by 23.4. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) landed hard on a first-quarter touchdown catch that a replay took away. He went to the locker room for a concussion check and did not come back until late in the second quarter. He finished with seven catches on eight targets for 46 yards, 12.6 points. Hunter Henry ($4,300) hurt his foot and left in the second quarter. He did not return, and he finished with three catches for 30 yards, 6.0 points.
Travis Hunter ($3,100) was our long shot at 0.5% owned. Jakobi Meyers did not practice on Friday with a hamstring injury. Hunter's targets had gone from zero to one to four over Jacksonville's last three games. We expected a bigger role for Hunter if Meyers was limited. Meyers played and caught two of three targets for 24 yards. Hunter drew one target and ran once for 5 yards, 0.5 points. Jacksonville threw only 17 passes in the 42 to 7 win, so there was little volume for any receiver.
Millionaire: What Won
The $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire had 147,058 entries and paid $1M to first. The winning lineup scored 259.08 and used $49,900:
| Slot | Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Joe Burrow | $7,000 | 45.48 | 8.5% |
| RB | Braelon Allen | $6,100 | 26.3 | 20.5% |
| RB | Bhayshul Tuten | $5,900 | 32.9 | 23.3% |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | $7,700 | 34.1 | 19.2% |
| WR | Tee Higgins | $6,700 | 40.5 | 14.2% |
| WR | Michael Wilson | $6,200 | 29.8 | 10.6% |
| TE | Gunnar Helm | $2,500 | 14.6 | 3.4% |
| FLEX | Harold Fannin Jr. | $4,200 | 27.4 | 1.9% |
| DST | New England | $3,600 | 8 | 4.5% |
Burrow went 38 of 48 for 462 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions, and he ran one in. Higgins caught 10 of 11 targets for 155 yards and two scores. Chase caught 11 of 16 for 141 yards and a score. Helm was the bring-back from Tennessee, with five catches on nine targets for 76 yards. The lineup played two tight ends. Fannin, in the flex, caught 10 of 12 targets for 154 yards for Cleveland at 1.9% owned.
Second place scored 253.88, 5.2 points back. It had the same core: Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Tuten, Braelon Allen and Helm. It added Jaylen Warren, Wan'Dale Robinson and the Pittsburgh defense. Burrow and Higgins were in all of the top 12 lineups. Chase was in 11, Tuten in eight and Helm in seven.
Top ROI Plays
ROI below is the return on each $20 entry for every lineup that used the player. We remove the $1M first prize, so one lineup cannot set the number. The list uses players on at least 0.5% of lineups. The full board is on the NFL Player ROI tool.
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow, CIN QB | $7,000 | 45.48 | 8.5% | +238% |
| Gunnar Helm, TEN TE | $2,500 | 14.6 | 3.4% | +163% |
| Tee Higgins, CIN WR | $6,700 | 40.5 | 14.2% | +111% |
| Tony Pollard, TEN RB | $5,800 | 31.7 | 3.7% | +75% |
| Ja'Marr Chase, CIN WR | $7,700 | 34.1 | 19.2% | +56% |
| Harold Fannin Jr., CLE TE | $4,200 | 27.4 | 1.9% | +33% |
| Mike Gesicki, CIN TE | $3,700 | 17.6 | 2.5% | +27% |
| Jaylen Warren, PIT RB | $6,600 | 24.3 | 7.7% | +25% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson, TEN WR | $4,200 | 16.7 | 15.6% | +21% |
| Cam Ward, TEN QB | $4,600 | 30.26 | 0.7% | +18% |
Eight of the 10 plays above came from one game. Cincinnati and Tennessee combined for 79 points. Cam Ward went 26 of 40 for 304 yards and two touchdowns and ran seven times for 41 yards. Pollard ran 21 times for 117 yards and two scores. Gesicki caught four of six for 76 yards and a touchdown.
Warren ran 17 times for 143 yards and a score in Pittsburgh's 27 to 6 win. He was the one big return from outside that game.
The Chalk That Failed
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers, BAL WR | $7,200 | 0 | 37.0% | -83% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, NE RB | $5,600 | 12.0 | 36.0% | -62% |
| CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR | $8,100 | 12.8 | 24.0% | -76% |
| Bhayshul Tuten, JAX RB | $5,900 | 32.9 | 23.3% | +1% |
| Hunter Henry, NE TE | $4,300 | 6.0 | 20.6% | -61% |
| Braelon Allen, NYJ RB | $6,100 | 26.3 | 20.5% | -12% |
| Denver D/ST | $2,300 | 2 | 20.4% | -61% |
| Omar Cooper Jr., NYJ WR | $4,800 | 0 | 19.4% | -79% |
| Ja'Marr Chase, CIN WR | $7,700 | 34.1 | 19.2% | +56% |
| Bucky Irving, TB RB | $6,400 | 25.0 | 18.8% | -32% |
Eight of the 10 most popular players lost money. Flowers was on 37.0% of lineups and scored 0. Lamar Jackson hurt his right thumb on Baltimore's first play. Tyler Huntley came in and hurt his toe. Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie in his first NFL game, took over in the second quarter and went 10 of 21 for 91 yards. Flowers drew five targets from three quarterbacks and caught none. Baltimore scored 10. Jackson was on 9.0% of lineups and returned -98%.
Hunter Henry was the most popular tight end at 20.6%. He hurt his foot and left in the second quarter, and he did not return. He scored 6.0 and returned -61%.
Braelon Allen ran 21 times for 147 yards and a touchdown and still lost money at 20.5% owned. Bucky Irving ran 27 times for 170 yards and a score and returned -32%. A 25-point running back at about 20% ownership did not separate this week. The lineups that won had the Cincinnati passing game, and most of the field did not.
Two defenses over 5% owned made money: Jacksonville (20 points, +9%) and Pittsburgh (19 points, +5%). Tampa Bay scored 18 at 5.9% owned and returned -26%. Denver, the most popular defense at 20.4%, scored 2. Atlanta (-72%), the Chargers (-65%), Cleveland (-66%), Detroit (-58%) and Las Vegas (-57%) all lost money.
Ownership Breakdown
The average top 200 lineup had a total ownership of 121.5%. The average lineup in the full field had 117.4%. The top 200 were 4.1 points higher, so they did not win by being contrarian. They won by picking the right game.
Burrow was 8.5% owned in the field and in 99.0% of the top 200. Higgins went from 14.2% to 96.0%, and Chase from 19.2% to 92.5%. Tuten went from 23.3% to 64.5%, and Wan'Dale Robinson from 15.6% to 56.5%. Pollard went from 3.7% to 29.0%, and Helm from 3.4% to 23.5%.
The losing chalk dropped out. Flowers was in one of the top 200 lineups. Lamb was in two and Omar Cooper Jr. in four. Stevenson went from 36.0% in the field to 20.5% of the top 200.
Stacking Notes
- 199 of the top 200 paired the quarterback with at least one teammate. In the field, 86.5% did.
- 159 of the top 200 used two teammates with the quarterback, in most cases Chase and Higgins. Quarterback plus two receivers was on 9.4% of field lineups and returned +73%. Quarterback plus receiver plus tight end was on 16.6% and returned -70%.
- 175 of the top 200 (87.5%) used a bring-back from the other team. In the field, 47.0% did. A receiver plus tight end bring-back, such as Robinson and Helm, was on 2.1% of field lineups and returned +166%.
- Burrow was the quarterback in 198 of the top 200. Drake Maye and Geno Smith had one each.
- Helm and Charlie Kolar were the $2,500 tight ends. Lineups that spent $2,500 at tight end returned +155%. Lineups that paid $7,400 for McBride returned -70%.
High-Stakes, Small Field
The $400K Spy is single entry at $100, with 4,444 entries and $100K to first. The winner scored 241.28 with Burrow, Chase and Higgins, plus Braelon Allen, Tuten, Jonah Coleman, DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry and the Pittsburgh defense. Burrow and Chase were in all of the top 10 lineups. Higgins was in nine and Tuten in eight.
The Spy leaned harder into the chalk that lost. Flowers went from 37.0% in the Millionaire to 47.5% in the Spy. Stevenson went from 36.0% to 46.4%, and the Denver defense from 20.4% to 28.4%. The Spy also used less of the stack that won. Burrow went from 8.5% to 6.9%, and Higgins from 14.2% to 10.7%. Burrow was 6.9% owned in the Spy and was in all of the top 10 lineups.
WHERE WE MISSED
The Cincinnati passing game. Friday named Cincinnati's 28.6 team total, the second highest on the slate. We took the running back from that offense and did not name Burrow, Chase or Higgins. Burrow threw 48 times, and the three of them scored 120.08 points together. Chase Brown scored 17.1 at 17.5% owned and returned -57%.
Drake London. He was a cash core play and scored 1.8. He missed time in the first quarter for a concussion check. Atlanta threw 24 times with four interceptions and did not score.
The Baltimore stack. Friday said to stack Jackson with Flowers and Mark Andrews if he was active. He was active, then hurt his thumb on the first play. By the second quarter Baltimore was on its third quarterback. Flowers scored 0, Andrews caught three of four for 14 yards, and Khalil Shakir caught five of six for 64 yards. The game finished 36 to 10, so the bring-back side won and the stack side did not.
The Arizona stack. Jacoby Brissett went 10 of 23 for 119 yards and an interception. Gardner Minshew went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Arizona won 33 to 30. Michael Wilson caught eight of 15 targets for 111 yards and a score, 29.8 points, so the receiver read was right. Bourne caught one of two targets, and George Pickens caught two of four for 48 yards.
The late swap. Bo Nix went 20 of 32 for 222 yards and two touchdowns, 19.28 points at 0.7% owned. Courtland Sutton caught four of four for 53 yards, and Xavier Worthy scored 4.3. Denver won 28 to 24, but the stack did not reach a winning score.
What Friday Got Right
Tuten was a cash value and was in 64.5% of the top 200. Wan'Dale Robinson was the Sunday Update's favorite cheap receiver. He caught six of seven targets for 57 yards and a touchdown and returned +21%. Friday faded Ollie Gordon II, and he scored 6.9 for a -78% return. The Run Blocking section named Pollard, and he returned +75%. Pittsburgh was our FanDuel defense and made money on DraftKings too.
Line Calls, Graded
The slate average was 2.81 sacks per offense and 4.28 yards per carry (YPC) for running backs. A pass rush call hits when the sacks beat 2.81. For the three lines Friday said would keep their quarterback clean, a hit is fewer than 2.81 sacks. A run blocking call hits when the backs beat 4.28 YPC in a good matchup, or fall below it in a tough one. The full board is on the NFL line matchups page.
| Call | Result | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| Lions pass rush vs Vikings line | 3 sacks on 32 dropbacks | Yes |
| Raiders pass rush vs Jets line | 2 sacks on 34 dropbacks | No |
| Steelers pass rush vs Browns line | 8 sacks on 49 dropbacks | Yes |
| Vikings pass rush vs Lions line | 4 sacks on 29 dropbacks | Yes |
| Rams pass rush vs Chargers line | 2 sacks on 34 dropbacks | No |
| Jaguars line keeps it clean vs Colts | 3 sacks on 20 dropbacks | No |
| Rams line keeps it clean vs Chargers | 1 sack on 26 dropbacks | Yes |
| Cowboys line keeps it clean vs Cardinals | 4 sacks on 33 dropbacks | No |
| Rams run game vs Chargers | 27 carries, 129 yards, 4.78 YPC | Yes |
| Cowboys run game vs Cardinals | 31 carries, 70 yards, 2.26 YPC | No |
| Titans run game vs Bengals | 21 carries, 117 yards, 5.57 YPC | Yes |
| Browns run game vs Steelers (tough) | 12 carries, 32 yards, 2.67 YPC | Yes |
Seven of the 12 line calls hit. The Steelers call was the big one, with eight sacks and a 27 to 6 win. The Rams run game hit as a unit. Blake Corum ran 11 times for 73 yards and a touchdown. Kyren Williams ran 16 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. Javonte Williams ran 24 times for 56 yards and scored 6.7 at 12.6% owned.
BEST PIVOTS
Zay Flowers ($7,200) to Tee Higgins ($6,700). $500 less. 40.5 more points. Higgins was 14.2% owned against 37.0% for Flowers.
Dak Prescott ($6,300) to Joe Burrow ($7,000). $700 more. 25.68 more points. Burrow was 8.5% owned against 15.2% for Prescott.
CeeDee Lamb ($8,100) to Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700). $400 less. 21.3 more points at 19.2% owned against 24.0%.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600) to Tony Pollard ($5,800). $200 more. 19.7 more points. Pollard was 3.7% owned against 36.0%.
Hunter Henry ($4,300) to Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,200). $100 less. 21.4 more points at 1.9% owned against 20.6%.
Denver D/ST ($2,300) to Tampa Bay D/ST ($2,900). $600 more. 16 more points at 5.9% owned against 20.4%.
CARRY INTO WEEK 9
These roles grew in Week 8. Each line compares Week 8 with the player's average over the games he played in Weeks 5 to 7. One week is not a trend, so check the Week 9 injury report before you lean on any of them.
Michael Wilson, ARI WR: 15 targets, up from 7.3. That was 36.6% of the Arizona targets, with Gardner Minshew throwing 23 of the team's 46 passes.
Harold Fannin Jr., CLE TE: 12 targets, up from 5.3. His last four weeks went 4, 3, 9 and 12 targets. He caught 10 for 154 yards.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ WR: 12 targets, up from 6.7. That was 38.7% of the Jets targets. He caught six for 83 yards.
Gunnar Helm, TEN TE: nine targets, up from 2.5. Tennessee threw 40 times while it chased Cincinnati.
Mike Washington Jr., LV RB: 25 carries for 83 yards, up from 5.3 carries. Ashton Jeanty ran twice and caught three passes for 64 yards. Watch the Las Vegas backfield this week.
Hunter Henry, NE TE: he left in the second quarter with a foot injury and did not return. Check his status before you play him or count on his targets going to someone else.
Baltimore quarterbacks: the Ravens say Jackson will have thumb surgery and go on injured reserve. Huntley hurt his toe. Check who starts before you play Flowers or Mark Andrews.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE RB: 19 carries, up from 11.0, with TreVeyon Henderson out. Check Henderson's status before you use him.
HOW TO THINK LIKE THIS MORE OFTEN
- When you like a team total, look at the passing game first. We saw Cincinnati's 28.6 and picked the back. The quarterback and his two receivers scored 120.08 together. Before you take the back from a top team total, ask how that offense scores. Cincinnati scored its points through the air.
- Pair the quarterback with two receivers when the targets go to two players. Chase and Higgins took 27 of Burrow's 48 throws. Quarterback plus two receivers returned +73% in the field. Quarterback plus receiver plus tight end returned -70%.
- Know who throws if your quarterback leaves. Baltimore was on its third quarterback by the second quarter, and Flowers caught none of five targets at 37.0% owned. When the quarterback carries injury risk, keep your exposure to his receivers lower.
- A big favorite can cut its own pass volume. Jacksonville threw 17 times in a 42 to 7 win. Tuten scored 32.9, and Strange scored 7.5. In a likely blowout, the running back gets the late carries, and the pass catchers lose snaps that matter.
- Build the bring-back in a close, high scoring game. 87.5% of the top 200 used one, against 47.0% of the field. Tennessee lost by seven and still gave the winners Helm, Pollard and Robinson.
Tools used for this review
Every number in this review comes off the BankrollSZN tools: the NFL Player ROI tool, the NFL Build ROI tool, this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.