NBA Foul Risk
Slate: 2026-10-12, updated Oct 12, 3:50 PM CT, model foul-v1.0
| Player | Team | Opp | Pos | Proj Min | Fouls/36 | Opp FTA idx | Exp Fouls | P(4+) | P(5+) | P(6+) | Matchup Lift | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | MIN | NY (a) | F | 26.6 | 4.26 | 1.09 | 3.1 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 3.1% | +64.0 pp | High |
| Luke Kornet | SA | UTAH (a) | C | 26.0 | 4.27 | 1.03 | 3.0 | 28.7% | 12.2% | 2.7% | +18.0 pp | High |
| Kyle Filipowski | UTAH | SA (h) | C | 22.1 | 4.80 | 1.12 | 2.9 | 27.4% | 11.4% | 2.5% | +72.0 pp | High |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | NY | MIN (h) | C | 23.8 | 4.24 | 1.06 | 2.7 | 26.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | +37.0 pp | High |
| Tobias Harris | SA | UTAH (a) | F | 38.0 | 2.50 | 1.03 | 2.7 | 25.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | +16.0 pp | High |
| Onyeka Okongwu | ATL | OKC (h) | C | 28.1 | 3.56 | 0.97 | 2.7 | 25.6% | 10.3% | 2.1% | -20.0 pp | High |
| LaMelo Ball | MIN | NY (a) | G | 26.5 | 3.78 | 1.09 | 2.7 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 2.0% | +50.0 pp | Elevated |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | UTAH | SA (h) | C | 23.3 | 4.09 | 1.12 | 2.6 | 24.5% | 9.7% | 1.9% | +62.0 pp | Elevated |
97 more players on today's board
Create a free account to see every player's foul risk. No credit card, it takes about 10 seconds.
How it works
Foul risk uses each player's foul rate over his last 30 games (pulled toward the position average for small samples), the opponent's free throw attempts over its last 15 games, home or away, and his projected minutes. It predicts the chance of 4, 5 and 6+ fouls. Matchup Lift is how much this opponent raises or lowers his chance of 5+ fouls compared with an average opponent. Tested on the 2025-26 season: players in the top fifth of risk reached 5+ fouls about 11% of the time, the bottom fifth about 2%.
What NBA foul risk measures
Foul trouble is one of the most predictable forms of NBA variance. A player who fouls at a high rate, facing an opponent that draws a lot of free throws, is meaningfully more likely to finish the game on the bench with five or six fouls rather than on the floor. That matters for DFS, for props and for in-game betting, because a player who sits with fouls is a player whose minutes and counting stats just disappeared.
This tool predicts the chance of 4, 5 and 6+ fouls for every player on tonight's slate. It is not a list of guys who picked up fouls last game. It is a per-player probability, built from each player's own foul rate, his opponent's free throw rate, home or away and his projected minutes.
How the model works
Foul risk uses each player's foul rate over his last 30 games, pulled toward the position average for small samples so a player with only a handful of games does not get an extreme number. It uses the opponent's free throw attempts over its last 15 games to build an opponent FTA index, where 1.00 is league average and anything above 1.00 means the opponent draws more free throws than average. It factors in home or away, since players foul slightly more on the road, and it uses projected minutes to scale the chance of reaching each foul threshold.
Matchup Lift is how much this opponent raises or lowers a player's chance of 5+ fouls compared with an average opponent. A positive number means this opponent makes foul trouble more likely. A negative number means this opponent makes it less likely.
How to use it
Sort by P(5+ fouls) to find the players most likely to get in foul trouble tonight. Those are the players whose minutes are at risk, which means their DFS projections and their prop lines are both at risk. A player in the High tier is not someone to auto-fade, but he is someone whose minutes projection you should haircut, and someone whose under on minutes and counting stats props becomes more interesting.
On the flip side, a player facing an opponent with a low FTA index and a negative Matchup Lift is less likely to leave the game early, which makes his minutes and props safer. Use the team and position filters to narrow to one game or one position group, and the High + Elevated only toggle to cut out the noise.
Frequently asked questions
What does P(5+ fouls) mean?
The probability that the player commits 5 or more personal fouls in tonight's game. A player who reaches 5 fouls is one foul away from fouling out and usually sees his minutes cut.
What is the opponent FTA index?
The opponent's free throw attempts per game over its last 15 games, scaled so 1.00 is league average. Above 1.00 means the opponent draws more free throws than a typical team, which raises foul risk for the players guarding them.
What is Matchup Lift?
How much this opponent raises or lowers a player's chance of 5+ fouls compared with an average opponent, in percentage points. A positive number means this matchup makes foul trouble more likely.
How accurate is the model?
Tested on the 2025-26 season, players in the top fifth of risk reached 5+ fouls about 11% of the time, and players in the bottom fifth about 2%.
Is this tool free?
Yes, with a free account. Logged-out visitors see a teaser of the top rows.