NFL Season Outlook
Projected scoring environment for all 32 teams, built from market season win totals walked across the real schedule.
Scoring Environment Quadrants
Each team plotted by projected points scored (x) and points allowed (y). Crosshairs mark league averages.
Insight
Strength of schedule matters less than it sounds. Across all 32 teams, average opponent offense varies by only 1.8 points per game, about one sixth the spread in team quality itself. When a team's projected points allowed differs sharply from its defensive reputation, that is the model expecting the defense itself to change, not the schedule.
All 32 Teams
Sorted by shootout index by default. Click any column header to sort.
| Team | Quadrant | Proj PPG | Off Rank | Pts Allowed | Def Rank | Total PPG | Proj Wins | Mkt Wins | Pass Idx | Rush Idx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Shootout | 26.8 | 3 | 25.3 | 30 | 52.1 | 9.2 | 9.1 | +3.1 | +1.8 |
| DET | Shootout | 27.0 | 2 | 23.6 | 22 | 50.5 | 10.1 | 10.6 | +2.8 | +2.0 |
| CIN | Blowout | 26.8 | 4 | 22.8 | 16 | 49.6 | 10.3 | 10.1 | +2.4 | +2.0 |
| BUF | Blowout | 27.2 | 1 | 21.9 | 13 | 49.2 | 10.8 | 10.6 | +2.5 | +2.3 |
| SF | Blowout | 26.0 | 6 | 22.8 | 15 | 48.8 | 9.9 | 10.0 | +1.9 | +1.6 |
| CHI | Shootout | 24.8 | 8 | 23.0 | 18 | 47.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | +1.2 | +1.0 |
| WAS | Shootout | 22.9 | 15 | 24.5 | 28 | 47.4 | 7.8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | -0.1 |
| LAR | Blowout | 26.4 | 5 | 21.0 | 7 | 47.3 | 10.9 | 11.7 | +1.7 | +1.9 |
| JAX | Blowout | 25.1 | 7 | 21.6 | 12 | 46.7 | 10.1 | 8.9 | +1.0 | +1.2 |
| IND | Negative Script | 22.1 | 17 | 23.9 | 25 | 46.0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| ARI | Negative Script | 19.5 | 29 | 26.4 | 32 | 45.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | -1.4 | -2.0 |
| GB | Blowout | 23.6 | 12 | 22.3 | 14 | 45.9 | 9.1 | 9.8 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| BAL | Blowout | 24.3 | 9 | 21.4 | 11 | 45.7 | 9.7 | 11.1 | +0.5 | +0.8 |
| ATL | Negative Script | 21.7 | 21 | 23.9 | 24 | 45.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| TB | Negative Script | 21.8 | 19 | 23.5 | 21 | 45.3 | 7.7 | 8.1 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| NO | Negative Script | 21.6 | 22 | 23.4 | 20 | 45.1 | 7.7 | 7.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| NYG | Negative Script | 20.9 | 25 | 23.9 | 23 | 44.7 | 7.1 | 7.5 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| CAR | Negative Script | 21.7 | 20 | 22.9 | 17 | 44.6 | 7.9 | 7.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| TEN | Negative Script | 19.2 | 30 | 25.0 | 29 | 44.1 | 5.9 | 6.4 | -2.0 | -2.1 |
| LV | Negative Script | 20.0 | 28 | 24.2 | 27 | 44.1 | 6.6 | 6.0 | -1.6 | -1.6 |
| NYJ | Negative Script | 20.0 | 27 | 24.1 | 26 | 44.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 |
| KC | Blowout | 23.7 | 10 | 20.3 | 4 | 44.0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | -0.2 | +0.6 |
| NE | Blowout | 23.0 | 14 | 20.9 | 6 | 43.8 | 9.4 | 10.1 | -0.5 | +0.1 |
| SEA | Blowout | 23.7 | 11 | 19.9 | 1 | 43.6 | 10.3 | 10.6 | -0.3 | +0.6 |
| HOU | Blowout | 23.2 | 13 | 20.1 | 2 | 43.3 | 9.9 | 9.7 | -0.6 | +0.3 |
| MIA | Negative Script | 16.9 | 32 | 26.2 | 31 | 43.1 | 4.6 | 4.0 | -3.1 | -3.3 |
| LAC | Grind | 21.6 | 24 | 21.4 | 10 | 43.0 | 8.6 | 9.9 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| MIN | Grind | 21.9 | 18 | 21.1 | 8 | 43.0 | 8.9 | 8.5 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| PHI | Grind | 21.6 | 23 | 21.3 | 9 | 42.9 | 8.6 | 10.1 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| DEN | Blowout | 22.3 | 16 | 20.1 | 3 | 42.4 | 9.5 | 9.6 | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| PIT | Grind | 20.8 | 26 | 20.8 | 5 | 41.7 | 8.5 | 8.2 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| CLE | Negative Script | 18.5 | 31 | 23.1 | 19 | 41.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | -2.9 | -2.3 |
Offenses that throw regardless of the scoreboard
Script slope is the change in pass rate per point of scoring margin. Every team runs more when ahead, so all slopes are negative. A slope near zero means the pass catchers stay busy even in bad game scripts.
| Rank | Team | Base Pass Rate | Script Slope | Playcaller |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 62.7% | -0.002 | - |
| 2 | NYJ | 56.9% | -0.003 | Frank Reich |
| 3 | WAS | 49.7% | -0.003 | David Blough |
| 4 | CAR | 55.0% | -0.003 | - |
| 5 | DAL | 58.4% | -0.003 | Brian Schottenheimer |
| 6 | KC | 57.8% | -0.003 | Andy Reid |
| 7 | LAR | 55.7% | -0.003 | Sean McVay |
| 8 | IND | 53.2% | -0.003 | - |
| 9 | DEN | 56.3% | -0.003 | Davis Webb (OC) |
| 10 | MIA | 55.1% | -0.003 | Bobby Slowik |
Highest Projected Totals
Top 12 games by projected point total for the season.
Week 18: DAL at WAS
56.9
proj total
Week 16: JAX at DAL
56.7
proj total
Week 11: CIN at WAS
56.0
proj total
Week 15: DAL at LAR
55.5
proj total
Week 7: GB at DET
55.5
proj total
Week 10: SF at DAL
55.5
proj total
Week 5: BUF at LAR
55.0
proj total
Week 8: BAL at BUF
55.0
proj total
Week 16: CIN at IND
54.9
proj total
Week 17: BAL at CIN
54.5
proj total
Week 2: DET at BUF
54.5
proj total
Week 5: DET at ARI
54.5
proj total
NFL season outlook for all 32 teams
A projected scoring environment for every NFL team across the full season, built from market season win totals walked across the real schedule. The model takes each team's implied season total, plays out the schedule game by game, and produces projected points for and against for every team.
What the quadrant chart shows
The chart plots every team by offensive strength on one axis and defensive strength on the other. Teams in the top right project to score a lot and allow a lot, which means high game totals and good DFS environments. Teams in the bottom left project to play low scoring, defensive games.
The teams table lists the same numbers in sortable form: projected points for, projected points against, implied win total, and the spread between what the model expects and what the market is pricing. That spread is where season long and best ball value lives.
Script immunity flags teams whose projection is least sensitive to game script. A team that runs the ball and plays defense regardless of the score is more predictable week to week than a team that throws 45 times when trailing and 20 times when ahead.
Using it for season long and best ball
For best ball drafts, the outlook tells you which teams project to score the most points over the season, which means more touchdown opportunities spread across their skill players. Drafting toward high scoring offences is a better use of early round picks than chasing individual players on bad teams.
The top games panel highlights the weeks where the model expects the highest scoring matchups, which is useful for stacking in DFS and for identifying when a team's players are worth a season long bench start.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NFL season outlook based on?
Market season win totals for each team, walked across the real NFL schedule game by game to produce projected points for and against.
What does script immunity mean?
A team whose projected scoring does not change much whether it is leading or trailing. Teams that run and play defense regardless of score are more script immune than pass heavy teams that throw to catch up.
How is this different from weekly projections?
The season outlook is a full season projection. Weekly projections update with injuries, weather and practice reports, while the outlook is a preseason baseline that moves slowly as win totals change.
Is the NFL season outlook free?
Yes, the full board for all 32 teams is free to view.