NHL Monte Carlo Sim

NHL Monte Carlo game simulations

Every game on the slate is simulated 20,000 times on the server, minute by minute. For each game you get a win chance for both sides, a regulation win chance, a chance of overtime, a puck line cover chance, an over and under chance against the posted total, and the gap to the de-vigged sportsbook price. It is free with an account.

Why the simulation plays the last three minutes

A trailing team pulls its goalie. Down one goal it pulls with about two minutes left, down two with about three. That moves many games from a 1-goal margin to 2 goals (empty net) or into overtime (6-on-5 tying goal). Every puck line at 1.5 sits on that line. The sim also models score effects, 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout, and the shootout winner counts as one goal, the way the books grade totals and puck lines.

What goes into expected goals

Shots for and against, finishing, goals, the starting goalie's save rate regressed toward the league, home ice and back-to-backs. Recent games count more and last season counts less. The model does not read the betting line, because a model built on the market would only find the vig.

Moneyline and puck line are published, totals are not

Tested on every game of the last two seasons, the model beat the home win rate on moneylines and on both puck lines, and matched the real score distribution (mean total 6.07 vs 6.09, overtime 23.1% vs 23.1%). With shot-location expected goals added, totals show a small edge over the base rate in testing, but not yet against the sportsbook, so totals are simulated and graded but not published as picks.

When picks are made

Inside 8 hours of puck drop, once both starting goalies are Confirmed or Likely. A pick is written once at the price it was made and graded against the final score, with closing line value.

Frequently asked questions