NHL Player Index: Player vs System
Through the 2026-27 season so far. The backtest covers 2024-25 to 2026-27 only. Model updated 11/13/2026, 8:10 AM CT
The top difference maker among players is Cutter Gauthier (ANA), worth +21.5 DK points per 60 above an average player on an average team. 107 players grade as difference makers and 54 as system products. The biggest step-up when the star sits is Trevor Zegras (+13.3 DK points per game without Owen Tippett).
For team strength, see the NHL Elo ratings.
Values are DK points per 60 (DK points per 60 minutes of ice time).
Top 15% player value at his position. The production follows him to any team.
Cutter Gauthiervalue+21.5
Nathan MacKinnonvalue+19.8
Connor McDavidvalue+19.1
Macklin Celebrinivalue+17.3Leon Draisaitlvalue+17.38+ DK points per game over the last 10 (defensemen 7+), but 35% or more of his value comes from the team and his linemates.
Alexander Nikishin17.6 DK/gBeckett Sennecke12.7 DK/g
Jack Roslovic12.1 DK/gMartin Necas11.8 DK/gArtturi Lehkonen11.8 DK/gValue above the system is up 3+ DK points per 60 minutes from last season.
Kent Johnsontrend+10.5
Joel Farabeetrend+9.3
Nils Hoglandertrend+9.1
Freddy Gaudreautrend+8.4
Josh Andersontrend+8.0Strong per-60 player held back: under 15 minutes a night (defensemen 19), off the top power play, or weak linemates. Goalies: a backup.
Tyler Toffoli13.8 min
Anthony Mantha13.6 min
Michael Eyssimont10.8 min
Justin Brazeau11.7 min
Boone Jenner16.0 minValue above the system is down 3+ DK points per 60 minutes from last season.
Porter Martonetrend-10.3
Tyler Bertuzzitrend-9.8
Ryan Hartmantrend-8.7
Mats Zuccarellotrend-7.4Owen Tippetttrend-6.7DK points per game in games the team's top skater missed, minus games he played. 5+ games without.
Trevor Zegras+13.3 (6g)Matvei Michkov+8.1 (6g)Porter Martone+5.2 (6g)Jordan Greenway+4.6 (6g)Tyson Foerster+3.9 (5g)Berkly Catton+3.1 (6g)Changed teams since the last game played. System lift and expected points use the new team.
Frederik AndersenCAR to EDM, +0.1Miles WoodCBJ to TOR, -0.1| Player | Player value | System lift | Linemate lift | Expected /60 | DK /60 | TOI | PP share | Trend | Archetype |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter GauthierL ANA | +21.5 | +0.5 | +1.2 | 48.4 | 62.1 | 18.4 | 94% | +8.1 | Difference maker |
| Nathan MacKinnonC COL | +19.8 | +0.7 | +1.6 | 47.2 | 48.7 | 20.2 | 90% | -3.7 | Difference maker |
| Connor McDavidC EDM | +19.1 | -0.0 | +3.0 | 47.4 | 52.0 | 23.7 | 96% | +0.6 | Difference maker |
| Macklin CelebriniC SJS | +17.3 | -0.7 | +0.1 | 42.0 | 44.5 | 23.4 | 95% | -1.9 | Difference maker |
| Leon DraisaitlC EDM | +17.3 | -0.0 | +3.4 | 46.0 | 55.3 | 21.9 | 97% | +7.1 | Difference maker |
 Brady TkachukL FLA | +17.0 | -0.1 | +1.6 | 43.8 | 50.5 | 16.7 | 84% | +0.6 | Difference maker |
| Jack HughesC NJD | +16.3 | +0.2 | +1.5 | 43.3 | 48.1 | 20.9 | 98% | +0.6 | Difference maker |
 Nikita KucherovR TBL | +16.1 | +0.4 | +2.4 | 44.2 | 42.8 | 21.1 | 95% | -5.9 | Difference maker |
 Tage ThompsonC BUF | +16.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 40.5 | 48.7 | 19.5 | 90% | +4.4 | Difference maker |
| Auston MatthewsC TOR | +15.5 | -0.1 | +1.6 | 42.3 | 47.3 | 20.5 | 98% | +0.6 | Difference maker |
| Brandon HagelL TBL | +15.0 | +0.4 | +1.4 | 42.0 | 52.0 | 20.6 | 64% | +7.6 | Difference maker |
| Evan BouchardD EDM | +14.7 | -0.0 | -0.2 | 33.2 | 39.5 | 25.6 | 100% | +4.0 | Difference maker |
| Kirill KaprizovL MIN | +14.0 | +0.1 | +3.0 | 42.4 | 49.0 | 21.6 | 91% | +4.9 | Difference maker |
 Kyle ConnorL WPG | +14.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | 40.2 | 48.6 | 21.4 | 98% | +6.5 | Difference maker |
| Cole CaufieldR MTL | +13.9 | +0.1 | +1.0 | 40.3 | 42.4 | 18.4 | 94% | -2.5 | Difference maker |
| David PastrnakR BOS | +13.7 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 39.6 | 42.7 | 20.3 | 99% | -0.7 | Difference maker |
 Jason RobertsonL DAL | +13.6 | -0.3 | +1.4 | 40.0 | 41.5 | 19.4 | 93% | -2.5 | Difference maker |
| Matt BoldyL MIN | +13.6 | +0.1 | +3.1 | 42.1 | 43.9 | 21.5 | 89% | -1.7 | Difference maker |
 Alex DeBrincatR DET | +12.8 | -0.5 | +0.8 | 38.5 | 36.4 | 19.7 | 93% | -6.4 | Difference maker |
| Cale MakarD COL | +12.3 | +0.7 | -0.0 | 31.7 | 36.7 | 22.4 | 91% | +2.4 | Difference maker |
| Zach WerenskiD CBJ | +11.9 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 29.7 | 30.7 | 28.2 | 99% | -1.6 | Difference maker |
| Brandt ClarkeD LAK | +11.7 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 29.8 | 36.0 | 19.5 | 46% | +2.9 | Difference maker |
 Jack EichelC VGK | +11.6 | +0.1 | +1.9 | 38.8 | 40.5 | 20.1 | 96% | -1.7 | Difference maker |
| Connor BedardC CHI | +11.3 | -0.9 | -0.6 | 35.0 | 36.8 | 20.4 | 99% | -2.4 | Difference maker |
| Jakob ChychrunD WSH | +10.8 | +0.1 | -0.1 | 29.5 | 32.2 | 24.4 | 83% | +0.6 | Difference maker |
| Roman JosiD NSH | +10.1 | +0.2 | -0.6 | 28.4 | 32.5 | 25.4 | 98% | +2.8 | Difference maker |
| Filip ForsbergL NSH | +9.8 | +0.2 | -0.5 | 34.8 | 35.5 | 20.3 | 95% | -2.5 | Difference maker |
| Jake GuentzelC TBL | +9.8 | +0.4 | +2.8 | 38.3 | 40.6 | 20.9 | 96% | +0.8 | Difference maker |
| Steven StamkosC NSH | +9.7 | +0.2 | -0.0 | 35.2 | 39.3 | 18.6 | 98% | +1.6 | Difference maker |
 Dylan GuentherR UTA | +9.5 | +0.3 | +1.5 | 36.6 | 33.8 | 17.2 | 96% | -6.3 | Difference maker |
| Clayton KellerR UTA | +9.3 | +0.3 | +1.0 | 35.8 | 39.3 | 18.9 | 96% | +1.5 | Difference maker |
| Sebastian AhoC CAR | +9.2 | +1.0 | +1.4 | 37.0 | 45.3 | 19.7 | 87% | +7.5 | Difference maker |
| John CarlsonD TBL | +9.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | 28.6 | 33.6 | 19.3 | 61% | +3.5 | Difference maker |
| Viktor ArvidssonL DET | +9.1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 35.4 | 34.5 | 18.6 | 97% | -5.6 | Difference maker |
| William NylanderR TOR | +9.1 | -0.1 | +0.8 | 35.1 | 37.0 | 20.0 | 95% | -1.5 | Difference maker |
| Mark StoneR VGK | +9.0 | +0.1 | +2.3 | 36.6 | 37.8 | 18.6 | 91% | -2.2 | Difference maker |
| Andrei SvechnikovR CAR | +8.9 | +1.0 | +1.5 | 36.8 | 40.6 | 17.5 | 87% | +1.2 | Difference maker |
 Matthew SchaeferD NYI | +8.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 27.2 | 31.2 | 27.0 | 98% | +2.9 | Difference maker |
| Bo HorvatC NYI | +8.9 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 33.4 | 35.5 | 21.3 | 92% | -0.4 | Difference maker |
| Kirill MarchenkoR TOR | +8.8 | -0.1 | +1.0 | 35.1 | 39.1 | 17.6 | 90% | 0.0 | Difference maker |
| Brad MarchandL FLA | +8.7 | -0.2 | +0.4 | 34.2 | 42.2 | 11.4 | 60% | -3.8 | Difference maker |
| Evgeni MalkinC PIT | +8.5 | +0.0 | +0.4 | 34.1 | 35.5 | 17.4 | 53% | -2.5 | Difference maker |
| Nick SchmaltzC UTA | +8.3 | +0.3 | +1.6 | 35.5 | 41.4 | 17.1 | 95% | +4.2 | Difference maker |
| Logan StankovenC CAR | +8.2 | +1.0 | +2.0 | 36.5 | 48.6 | 16.8 | 30% | +12.3 | Difference maker |
| Wyatt JohnstonC DAL | +8.2 | -0.3 | +1.0 | 34.1 | 35.1 | 19.7 | 84% | -1.3 | Difference maker |
| Darren RaddyshD TOR | +8.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 26.8 | 22.9 | 24.0 | 99% | -8.8 | Difference maker |
| Shayne GostisbehereD CAR | +8.1 | +1.0 | +0.6 | 28.5 | 26.3 | 17.8 | 95% | -7.1 | Difference maker |
| Seth JarvisR CAR | +8.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 | 34.9 | 33.0 | 16.1 | 34% | -4.0 | Difference maker |
| Mikhail SergachevD UTA | +8.0 | +0.3 | +0.8 | 27.8 | 31.5 | 24.4 | 93% | +2.9 | Difference maker |
| Alex TuchR WSH | +8.0 | +0.1 | +1.3 | 34.7 | 36.0 | 19.2 | 60% | -0.4 | Difference maker |
| Adrian KempeR LAK | +8.0 | -0.1 | +1.9 | 35.0 | 35.5 | 20.1 | 91% | -1.5 | Difference maker |
| Matthew TkachukL FLA | +7.9 | -0.1 | +3.1 | 36.2 | 37.3 | 18.8 | 93% | -3.1 | Difference maker |
| Sam ReinhartC FLA | +7.9 | -0.1 | +0.7 | 33.7 | 37.7 | 20.2 | 94% | +1.7 | Difference maker |
| Logan CooleyC UTA | +7.8 | +0.3 | +0.4 | 33.7 | 39.9 | 18.5 | 99% | +4.4 | Difference maker |
| Tomas HertlC VGK | +7.8 | +0.1 | +0.4 | 33.5 | 38.8 | 15.5 | 95% | +2.9 | Difference maker |
 Adam FoxD NYR | +7.7 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 25.8 | 29.0 | 22.9 | 99% | +1.8 | Difference maker |
| Pavel DorofeyevR NYR | +7.7 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 32.9 | 34.1 | 16.9 | 78% | -1.3 | Difference maker |
| Artemi PanarinL LAK | +7.7 | -0.1 | +1.8 | 34.6 | 37.0 | 21.4 | 99% | +0.8 | Difference maker |
| Timo MeierR NJD | +7.6 | +0.2 | +1.1 | 34.2 | 36.1 | 16.6 | 47% | -0.4 | Difference maker |
 Jake SandersonD OTT | +7.6 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 25.8 | 27.3 | 23.1 | 92% | -1.3 | Difference maker |
Which teams lift their players
DK points per 60 each team adds for every player, 2026-27.
CAR+1.0COL+0.7ANA+0.5TBL+0.4BOS+0.3UTA+0.3CHI-0.9PHI-0.9SJS-0.7CBJ-0.5DET-0.5Regular season games since 2024-25, recent seasons weighted more. Model v1.1.
What the NHL Player Index measures
Every DraftKings point an NHL skater scores comes from the player, his team, the opponent and the linemates who share the ice with him. The Player Index splits them. A ridge regression on every regular season game since 2024-25 credits each part, with recent seasons weighted more.
Player value is DK points per 60 minutes of ice time above an average player on an average team. System lift is what his current team adds. Linemate lift is what his forward line or defense pair adds. Forwards, defensemen and goalies are fit separately.
Difference makers vs system products in hockey
A difference maker produces on any line and any team. A system product scores well because of who he plays with. In the NHL the team part is small, about 1 point below to 1.5 points above average per 60. Linemates matter more, so a winger who moves off the top line usually loses more than a winger who changes teams.
Blocked by teammates marks strong per-60 skaters who play under 15 minutes a night (defensemen 19), sit off the top power play, or skate with weak linemates. A line change or an injury can free them up. For goalies it marks a strong backup.
How accurate the model is
We tested the model on the 2025-26 season and on 2026-27 games so far, without letting it see the season it graded. For skaters it predicted season DK points per 60 with an average error of 4.34, against 4.38 for last season's rate pulled toward the league average. The linemate term helps where line data exists: 5.44 against 5.54 without it on 2026-27.
The backtest covers 2024-25 to 2026-27 only, so the edge is small and the sample is short. Use the index as a ranking of who is real, not as a nightly projection.
Frequently asked questions
What is a system product in the NHL?
A skater who gets 35% or more of his value from his team and linemates and scores 8 or more DK points per game over his last 10 games (defensemen 7).
Why is the index per 60 minutes?
Ice time varies a lot between the top line and the fourth line. Per 60 minutes puts every skater on the same scale, so you can see who produces with the time he gets.
How often does the NHL Player Index update?
Every morning during the season, after the previous night's box scores and line data load.
Does the index predict tonight's points?
No. It is a ranking built from full seasons. Use the NHL projections for tonight's points.
Is this tool free?
Yes. The full page is free with no account.