Four games means heavier stacks, and we want our goalie tied to a stack where we can. Colorado at Nashville and Minnesota at Vancouver share the top total at 6.5, and Colorado has the most goals implied at 3.81. We build around the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1) in Vancouver, and MacKenzie Blackwood is the goalie we trust.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -192 | DAL 3.06, NYI 2.35 | DAL PP vs 29th ranked PK |
| MTL @ WPG | 5.5 | MTL -118 | MTL 2.93, WPG 2.83 | Suzuki out for MTL |
| COL @ NSH | 6.5 | COL -235 | COL 3.81, NSH 2.75 | NSH on a back-to-back after travel, third game in four nights |
| MIN @ VAN | 6.5 | MIN -194 | MIN 3.65, VAN 2.85 | MIN on a back-to-back after travel, MIN PP vs 32nd ranked PK |
The best special teams spot of the night belongs to Minnesota. Its power play ranks 4th in expected goals per 60, and Vancouver's penalty kill gives up the most expected goals per 60 in the league. Dallas is close behind: its power play ranks 2nd and the Islanders' kill ranks 29th. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki (MTL, C) | Out | 9 | Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Dylan Samberg, Mario Ferraro, Neal Pionk |
| Ivan Demidov (MTL, RW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky |
| Esa Lindell (DAL, D) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Nils Lundkvist, Lian Bichsel, Miro Heiskanen |
| Sam Montembeault (MTL, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Jakub Dobes |
| Filip Gustavsson (MIN, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Calvin Pickard |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Leevi Merilainen |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,400), cash
Blackwood is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and our feeds do not agree on him yet, so watch the morning skate. His 67.0% win chance is the best on the slate. Nashville is implied for 2.75 goals, plays the second night of a back-to-back after travel, and should put about 24 shots on him, so he should make about 22 saves. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Calvin Pickard (MIN, $8,200), who is confirmed and has a 63.2% win chance.
Jake Oettinger (DAL, $8,300), GPP
Oettinger is expected to start, not yet confirmed. He wins 62.9% of the time, and his 10.3% shutout chance is the best on the slate. The Islanders are implied for only 2.35 goals, and he has a .939 save percentage in eight games this season. He also sits behind the Dallas power play, our third stack. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to Pickard here too.
Justus Annunen draws more attention than Pickard with only a 33.0% win chance, on a Nashville team playing its second game in two nights. We let the field have him.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes
Minnesota is implied for 3.65 goals against Leevi Merilainen, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, with a .916 save percentage in five games. The Minnesota forwards sit 83.2 points above the Vancouver defense in our NHL Elo ratings, the biggest SMASH tag on the slate, and the defensemen get a SMASH tag too. The top line drives 54.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league by expected goals. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (109.6), and correlation adds 12.0 points, the most of any stack. Joel Eriksson Ek and Blake Coleman complete the unit at $33,600. Minnesota played last night and traveled, its third game in four nights, so we mark it down a notch. Cash and GPP.
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri
Colorado is implied for 3.81 goals, the most on the slate, against Annunen, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, on a tired Nashville team. Both Colorado units get SMASH tags, and the MacKinnon line drives 54.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Colorado also plays at the fastest 5v5 pace in the league. The power play is only 14th in expected goals per 60 against a Nashville kill at 12th, so this stack needs its 5v5 goals. MacKinnon should get about four shots, with a 40.3% chance at five or more. Jaden Schwartz and T.J. Hughes complete the unit at $28,700, and its 90th percentile (91.3) is second on the slate. Cash and GPP.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston (third stack)
Dallas is implied for 3.06 goals against Ilya Sorokin, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and has a strong .934 save percentage in seven games. The Dallas power play ranks 2nd in expected goals per 60 and faces an Islanders kill ranked 29th. We need that power play, because Dallas plays at the slowest 5v5 pace in the league and both top lines sit just under 50% of the shot attempts. Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz complete the unit at $31,400, with the third best 90th percentile (87.4). On a small slate we eat the chalk, so this is a third build, and it pairs with Oettinger. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN F1 | Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | +24.3 | VAN F1 (46% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 304 min |
| COL F1 | Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | +9.3 | NSH F1 (44%) | Full line, 700 min |
| MTL F1 | Juraj Slafkovsky, Oliver Kapanen, Cole Caufield | +8.8 | WPG F1 (43%) | Caufield and Slafkovsky, 840 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
VAN F2: Jake DeBrusk, Filip Chytil, Jonathan Lekkerimaki ($9,600 total)
Three skaters for $9,600 is the cheapest line in the top half of the slate by 90th percentile (44.8). DeBrusk and Lekkerimaki also run PP1, and Minnesota's kill ranks 25th in expected goals against per 60. The line loses the shot battle at 5v5, so the ceiling comes from the power play. It works as a bring-back to MIN PP1 and leaves room for Colorado pieces in the same build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: MIN PP1. Pivot: DAL PP1. Minnesota's power play is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin, and on four games we play it. Dallas costs $2,200 less for the full unit, has a top-three 90th percentile and comes in about half as owned, so use it for the second build.
Chalk goalie: Blackwood. Pivot: Oettinger. Blackwood is the most popular goalie and our cash pick, and we are fine with that on a small slate. Oettinger costs $100 less, has the best shutout chance and is a touch less popular, so he goes in the Dallas build.
Skaters
Centers
Elias Pettersson ($4,300): cash. Pettersson centers the Vancouver top line and runs PP1, about 20 minutes. He should get about two shots and block a shot, with a 2.8 point floor. How a PP1 center is still priced at $4,300 is a mystery.
Mark Scheifele ($6,500): GPP. He centers the Winnipeg top line between Kyle Connor and Cole Perfetti and stays on PP1, about 20 minutes. On a slate this top-heavy, few people will click a $6,500 center, and his 19.5 ceiling is plenty for a tournament.
Wingers
Kyle Connor ($7,800): cash. Connor plays on the Winnipeg top line and PP1, about 20 minutes. His 4.3 point floor is the best of any winger outside the Minnesota top line, and he should get about three shots, with a 22.6% chance at five or more.
Cole Caufield ($7,700): GPP. With Suzuki out, Caufield carries even more of the Montreal offense from the top line and PP1, about 20 minutes. He should get about three shots, his ceiling is 24.0, and he should come in low-owned at this price.
Defensemen
Thomas Harley ($4,300): cash. Harley plays on the Dallas top pair with Heiskanen and runs PP2, about 25 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 30.6% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate, and his value is the best of any defenseman.
Lane Hutson ($6,000): GPP. Hutson plays on the Montreal top pair with Noah Dobson and runs PP1, about 23 minutes. That pair drives 60.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Hutson is one of the least popular top-pair defensemen on the slate.
Value Plays
Oliver Kapanen (MTL C, $3,100): With Suzuki out, Kapanen centers the Montreal top line and PP1 between Caufield and Slafkovsky, about 15 minutes. That line carries a +8.8 matchup edge against the Winnipeg top line.
Tyler Seguin (DAL W, $3,300): Seguin plays on the Dallas second line with Robertson and Hintz and runs PP2, about 16 minutes. He should get about two shots against a team implied for 2.35 goals.
Blocks Floor
Alexandre Carrier (MTL D, $3,300): Carrier plays on the Montreal second pair with Mike Matheson and has no power play role, about 19 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 26.2% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Jonas Brodin (MIN D, $3,200): Brodin plays on the Minnesota second pair with Olli Maatta and runs PP2, about 20 minutes. He should block close to two shots, with a 24.3% chance at the bonus. Use him the same way, as a cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Artturi Lehkonen over 1.5 shots on goal (-138): he plays on MacKinnon's line against a tired Nashville team, and we have him at about two shots.
Gabriel Landeskog over 1.5 shots on goal (-144): he plays on the Colorado second line with Kadri and Brock Nelson, and we also have him at about two shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Blackwood is expected to start, not confirmed, and the feeds disagree. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Pickard, who is confirmed.
- Oettinger, Merilainen, Sorokin, Annunen, Jakub Dobes and Stuart Skinner are all expected, not confirmed. A backup in front of MIN PP1 or COL PP1 makes that stack better.
- Minnesota and Nashville are both on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Nashville is the team most likely to turn to its backup, so watch the morning skate.
- Radek Faksa (DAL) and Nino Niederreiter (WPG) are day to day. Both play in the bottom six, so check the line rushes before you lock Seguin or Scheifele.
- With Suzuki out, check the Montreal line rushes to confirm Kapanen stays on the top line and PP1.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Blackwood, Pettersson, Connor and Harley, then add Minnesota pieces with the salary that is left. In tournaments, run the full MIN PP1 with Blackwood, build a second lineup around DAL PP1 with Oettinger, and use COL PP1 as the third build.
NHL DFS FAQ
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
On a small slate, yes, when the goalie is a real favorite. A big night from his skaters usually means a win for him, so Oettinger with DAL PP1 or Blackwood with COL PP1 both make sense tonight. The one build to avoid is a goalie facing your own stack, so keep Merilainen out of any lineup with MIN PP1.
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
A goal and its assists usually go to skaters on the ice together, so a line scores as a group. Tonight correlation adds 8.8 points at the 90th percentile to the Minnesota top line on its own. When one of those players scores, the others often get the assists.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.