Three games means heavy stacks, and we want our goalie on the same side as one of them. Toronto at Calgary and Detroit at Edmonton share the top total at 6.5, and Edmonton has the most goals implied at 3.71. We build around the Edmonton top power play unit (EDM PP1) at home against Detroit, and Tristan Jarry is the goalie we trust.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, MacKenzie Blackwood, did not start: Scott Wedgewood got the Colorado net, lost and scored -0.7 DK points. The MIN PP1 stack scored 66.6 DK points, third of 8 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK @ NYR | 5.5 | NYR -128 | NYR 2.97, LAK 2.76 | NYR 29th in 5v5 pace |
| TOR @ CGY | 6.5 | TOR -152 | TOR 3.53, CGY 3.06 | CGY 2nd and TOR 3rd in 5v5 pace |
| DET @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -188 | EDM 3.71, DET 2.94 | EDM PP 1st vs 21st ranked PK |
The best special teams spot of the night belongs to Edmonton. Its power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, and Detroit's penalty kill ranks 21st in expected goals allowed per 60. Detroit has a spot too: its power play is 6th and the Edmonton kill is 27th. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Marshall Rifai (TOR, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jake McCabe, Troy Stecher, Darren Raddysh |
| Mattias Ekholm (EDM, D) | Out | 6 | Connor Murphy, Jake Walman, Evan Bouchard |
| Elvis Merzlikins (TOR, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Sergei Bobrovsky |
| Joonas Korpisalo (NYR, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Spencer Martin |
| Frederik Andersen (EDM, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Tristan Jarry |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Tristan Jarry (EDM, $8,400), cash
Jarry is expected to start, not yet confirmed. His 62.5% win chance is the best on the slate, and Detroit is implied for 2.94 goals. He should face about 28 shots and make about 25 saves behind the slate's best power play. If Edmonton turns to its backup, switch to Sergei Bobrovsky.
Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR, $8,000), GPP
Bobrovsky is expected to start, not yet confirmed. He wins 57.7% of the time, and Calgary should test him: about 31 shots and 28 saves, with a 10.5% chance at 35 or more saves, the best on the slate. He pairs with TOR PP1 and with our Detroit build. If Toronto turns to its backup, switch to Jarry.
Dustin Wolf draws real attention with only a 42.3% win chance, and our feeds do not agree on him yet. We let the field have him.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton is implied for 3.71 goals against John Gibson, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, with a 37.5% win chance. The Edmonton defensemen get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, 49.4 points above the Detroit defense. The McDavid line drives 55.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the power play is the best in the league by expected goals against a Detroit kill ranked 21st. This unit has the top 90th percentile on the slate (103.7). Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins complete it at $38,000. Cash and GPP.
TOR PP1: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Kirill Marchenko
Toronto is implied for 3.53 goals against Wolf, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, with feeds that disagree. The Toronto forwards get a SMASH tag, 38.9 points above the Calgary defense. With John Tavares out, Matthews and Nylander pick up his work. Both Toronto top lines sit just under 50% of the shot attempts, so the power play has to carry it: Toronto is 11th in expected goals per 60, against a Calgary kill ranked 24th. Correlation adds 9.3 points at the 90th percentile (96.6), the most of any stack. Darren Raddysh and Gavin McKenna complete it at $30,200. Cash and GPP.
DET PP1: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider (third stack)
Detroit is implied for 2.94 goals against Jarry, so this unit never goes in a Jarry lineup. Pair it with Bobrovsky and use it as a bring-back to EDM PP1. The Detroit power play ranks 6th in expected goals per 60, and the Edmonton kill ranks 27th. Larkin's line drives 55.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Viktor Arvidsson and Lucas Raymond complete it at $32,200, with the third best 90th percentile (86.8). On a small slate we eat the chalk, so this is a third build. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR F1 | Alexis Lafreniere, Mika Zibanejad, Gabe Perreault | +5.7 | LAK F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 386 min |
| NYR F2 | Tye Kartye, J.T. Miller, Oliver Bjorkstrand | +5.4 | LAK F1 (39%) | Kartye and Miller, 265 min |
| EDM F1 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin | +4.9 | DET F1 (46%) | Full line, 166 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
NYR PP2: Gabe Perreault, Will Cuylle, Sean Durzi, Eeli Tolvanen, Oliver Bjorkstrand ($15,300 total)
This is the cheapest unit in the top half of the slate by 90th percentile (51.2). Perreault also plays on the Rangers top line, which carries the best forward line edge on the slate. Two or three of these pieces leave room for the full EDM PP1 at $38,000.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: EDM PP1. Pivot: TOR PP1. Edmonton's power play is the most popular stack on the slate, and on three games we play it. Toronto costs $7,800 less for the full unit, has the second best 90th percentile and comes in less popular, so it is our second build.
Chalk goalie: Bobrovsky. Pivot: Jarry. Bobrovsky is the most popular goalie, and he goes in the Toronto and Detroit builds. Jarry is close behind in popularity, has the better win chance and anchors cash and the Edmonton build.
Skaters
Centers
Morgan Frost ($3,900): cash. Frost centers the Calgary second line and runs PP1, about 16 minutes. With Mikael Backlund day to day, he should keep that work. He should get about two shots, and he is one of the best values on the slate in a game with a 6.5 total.
Mika Zibanejad ($6,600): GPP. He centers the Rangers top line and stays on PP1, about 20 minutes. That line has the +5.7 matchup edge against the Kings top line, and few people will pay $6,600 for a center in the low total game.
Wingers
Matt Coronato ($4,600): cash. Coronato plays on the Calgary top line and PP1, about 19 minutes. He should get about three shots, with a 3.0 point floor, and his value is among the best of any winger.
Artemi Panarin ($7,000): GPP. He plays on the Kings top line and runs PP1, about 21 minutes. With Kevin Fiala out and Quinton Byfield day to day, the Kings lean on him even more. He should get about three shots, his ceiling is 22.5, and he should come in low-owned.
Defensemen
Brandt Clarke ($5,600): cash. Clarke plays on the Kings second pair with Joel Edmundson and runs PP1, about 20 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 36.7% chance at the 3-block bonus, and his 4.1 point floor is the best of any defenseman outside our stacks.
Adam Fox ($5,900): GPP. Fox plays on the Rangers top pair with Vladislav Gavrikov and runs PP1, about 22 minutes. That pair has a +6.7 matchup edge and 57.5% of the expected goals when it is on the ice, and Fox should be one of the least popular PP1 defensemen tonight.
Value Plays
Easton Cowan (TOR W, $3,500): Cowan plays on the Toronto top line with Matthews and Jack Roslovic and runs PP2, about 16 to 17 minutes. That is top-line work for $3,500.
Kasperi Kapanen (EDM W, $2,900): Kapanen plays on the Edmonton second line with Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins and runs PP2, about 16 to 17 minutes. How a winger on that line costs $2,900 is a mystery.
Blocks Floor
Connor Murphy (EDM D, $3,000): With Ekholm out, Murphy plays on the Edmonton second pair with Ryan Shea and has no power play role, about 21 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 40.3% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate. Cash and floor play.
Jake McCabe (TOR D, $3,000): McCabe plays on the Toronto top pair with Raddysh and has no power play role, about 20 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 30.5% chance at the bonus. Use him the same way, as a cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
J.T. Miller over 1.5 shots on goal (-148): he centers the Rangers second line and runs PP1, and we have him at about two shots.
Pavel Dorofeyev over 2.5 shots on goal (-140): he plays on the Rangers third line but stays on PP1, and we have him close to three shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Jarry and Bobrovsky are both expected, not confirmed. If one sits, switch to the other.
- Wolf, Gibson and Darcy Kuemper are expected, not confirmed, and the feeds disagree on Wolf. A backup in front of EDM PP1 or TOR PP1 makes that stack better.
- The Rangers starter is not set yet. James Reimer is the expected name, so check before you lock Kings pieces.
- Backlund (CGY) and Byfield (LAK) are day to day. Check the line rushes before you lock Frost or Panarin.
- No team is on a back-to-back tonight. Every team had a day off.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Jarry, McDavid, Bouchard, Frost and Coronato, then fill with the salary that is left. In tournaments, run the full EDM PP1 with Jarry, build a second lineup around TOR PP1 with Bobrovsky, and use DET PP1 with Bobrovsky as the third build.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup chases a safe score to beat about half the field, so it wants minutes, shots, blocks and a goalie who is a favorite. A GPP lineup needs a ceiling and a different path from the field, so it stacks a line or power play unit and takes some low-owned risk. Tonight that means Frost and Coronato for cash, and Zibanejad or Panarin for tournaments.
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm the starter after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. Every goalie on tonight's slate is expected, not confirmed, so check again before lock. Our goalie page updates as the news comes in.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.