Eleven games means more stacks to pick from and more room for one-offs, so we do not need to force every build through the same unit. Six games share the top total of 6.5, and Anaheim has the most goals implied at 3.79 against Vancouver. We build around the Anaheim top power play unit (ANA PP1), and Lukas Dostal is the goalie we trust behind it.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Tristan Jarry, started and lost, with 26 saves for 9.7 DK points. The EDM PP1 stack scored 45.9 DK points, fifth of 6 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ @ PHI | 5.5 | CBJ -126 | CBJ 2.89, PHI 2.70 | PHI 31st in 5v5 pace |
| BOS @ CAR | 6.5 | CAR -192 | CAR 3.52, BOS 2.74 | CAR 1st in 5v5 shot share |
| LAK @ CHI | 5.5 | LAK -115 | LAK 2.95, CHI 2.88 | LAK on a back-to-back after travel |
| NJD @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -125 | DAL 2.88, NJD 2.71 | DAL 32nd in 5v5 pace |
| NYI @ NSH | 5.5 | NSH -120 | NSH 2.87, NYI 2.75 | NSH third game in four nights |
| FLA @ WPG | 5.5 | FLA -137 | FLA 3.07, WPG 2.77 | WPG without Josh Morrissey |
| MTL @ STL | 6.5 | STL -118 | STL 3.17, MTL 3.06 | MTL without Nick Suzuki |
| MIN @ UTA | 6.5 | UTA -130 | UTA 3.26, MIN 3.02 | MIN PP 4th vs 24th ranked PK |
| VAN @ ANA | 6.5 | ANA -210 | ANA 3.79, VAN 2.86 | ANA PP vs 32nd ranked PK |
| OTT @ VGK | 6.5 | VGK -160 | VGK 3.55, OTT 3.02 | VGK PK 1st in xG allowed |
| BUF @ SJS | 6.5 | BUF -142 | BUF 3.51, SJS 3.14 | SJS without Alexander Wennberg |
Minnesota has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 4th in expected goals per 60, and the Utah penalty kill ranks 24th in expected goals allowed per 60. Vancouver's kill is last in the league, which is the other reason Anaheim sits at the top. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki (MTL, C) | Out | 9 | Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský |
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Sandis Vilmanis, Brady Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Dylan Samberg, Neal Pionk, Mario Ferraro |
| Owen Tippett (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Noah Cates, Noel Acciari, Matvei Michkov |
| Thomas Chabot (OTT, D) | Out | 7 | Tyler Kleven, Artem Zub, Jordan Spence |
| Travis Konecny (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Noah Cates, Noel Acciari, Matvei Michkov |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Taylor Ward, Adrian Kempe, Artemi Panarin |
| William Eklund (OTT, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Warren Foegele, Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Lukas Dostal (ANA, $8,500), cash
Dostal is expected to start, not yet confirmed. His 64.8% win chance is the best on the slate, and Vancouver is implied for 2.86 goals. He should see about 22 shots and make about 19 saves, so his floor rests on the win. If Anaheim turns to its backup, switch to Pyotr Kochetkov.
Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR, $7,800), GPP
Kochetkov took the starter's crease at the Carolina morning skate, but he is still listed as expected, not confirmed. He wins 62.9% of the time and has a 10.9% shutout chance, the best on the slate. Boston is implied for 2.74 goals against a Carolina team that leads the league in 5v5 shot share. If Carolina turns to its backup, switch to Carter Hart.
Spencer Knight is the second most popular goalie on the slate at a 48.8% win chance. We let the field have him.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
ANA PP1: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Mikael Granlund, Jackson LaCombe
Anaheim is implied for 3.79 goals against Kevin Lankinen, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and has allowed 6.10 goals a game in seven games this season. The Anaheim forwards get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, 61.8 points above the Vancouver defense, the biggest gap on the slate. The Gauthier line sits at 50.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts, so the power play does the heavy lifting: Vancouver's kill ranks last in expected goals allowed per 60. This unit has the top 90th percentile (95.3), and correlation adds 11.0 points, the most of any stack. Judd Caulfield completes it at $27,700. Cash and GPP.
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Quinn Hughes
Minnesota is implied for 3.02 goals against Karel Vejmelka, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Minnesota forwards also get a SMASH tag, 30.4 points above the Utah defense. The Kaprizov line drives 54.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts and carries a +8.6 matchup edge on a full line sample. The power play ranks 4th in expected goals per 60 against a Utah kill ranked 24th. Minnesota is on its third game in four nights, a small downgrade. We still want the second best 90th percentile on the slate (94.3). GPP.
FLA PP1: Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe (contrarian)
Florida is implied for 3.07 goals against Stuart Skinner, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. With Brad Marchand out, Brady Tkachuk and Reinhart pick up his work. Both Tkachuks play on a top line that drives 57.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts and has a +13.6 matchup edge against the Winnipeg top line. The Florida power play ranks 9th in expected goals per 60, and the Winnipeg kill ranks 17th. Its 90th percentile (86.8) sits with the top stacks, and it comes in less popular than the four stacks ahead of it. Seth Jones completes the unit. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK F1 | Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere | +14.4 | CHI F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 81 min |
| FLA F1 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett | +13.6 | WPG F1 (42%) | Full line, 71 min |
| CAR F2 | Nikolaj Ehlers, Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake | +9.9 | BOS F1 (40%) | Full line, 297 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
BUF F2: Jack Quinn, Noah Ostlund, Josh Doan ($13,200 total)
This is the cheapest line or unit in the top half of the slate by 90th percentile (47.7). Quinn and Ostlund also run PP1, Doan runs PP2, and the Buffalo forwards get a SMASH tag against a San Jose defense that ranks 29th in 5v5 expected goals allowed. At $13,200 for three skaters, it leaves room for a full ANA PP1 build.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: ANA PP1. Pivot: UTA PP1. Anaheim's power play is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin, and we still play it. Utah's top unit costs $2,700 more, has the fourth best 90th percentile (88.6) and comes in at about half the popularity.
Chalk goalie: Carter Hart. Pivot: Kochetkov. Hart is the most popular goalie at a 58.8% win chance, and our feeds do not agree on him yet. Kochetkov has the better win chance, the best shutout chance and is much less popular.
Skaters
Centers
Macklin Celebrini ($8,800): cash. He centers the San Jose top line and runs PP1, about 22 minutes. With Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov out, San Jose leans on him even more. He should get three or four shots, and he has the highest projection of any skater on the slate.
Bo Horvat ($6,800): GPP. Horvat centers the Islanders top line and stays on PP1, about 21 minutes. With Mathew Barzal out, he takes the top center minutes. He should get three or four shots with a 21.3% chance at five or more, and he should come in low-owned.
Wingers
Tage Thompson ($8,100): cash. Thompson plays on the Buffalo top line and runs PP1, about 19 minutes. He should get three or four shots with a 28.3% chance at five or more, and his 4.5 point floor is among the best of any winger. Buffalo is implied for 3.51 goals.
Kyle Connor ($7,900): GPP. Connor plays on the Winnipeg top line and runs PP1, about 20 to 21 minutes. His 25.5 ceiling is the best of any winger outside our stacks, and he is a natural bring-back with FLA PP1. Few people will pay up for a Jet in a 5.5 total game.
Defensemen
Zach Werenski ($8,000): cash. Werenski plays on the Columbus top pair with Damon Severson and runs PP1, about 27 minutes. He should get about three shots and block one or two, and his 5.6 point floor is the best of any defenseman.
Matthew Schaefer ($7,000): GPP. Schaefer plays on the Islanders top pair and runs PP1, about 25 and a half minutes. He should get about three shots with a 23.5% chance at five or more, the best of any defenseman. He pairs well with Horvat on the same power play.
Value Plays
Ivar Stenberg (SJS W, $3,400): Stenberg plays on the San Jose top line with Celebrini and Will Smith and runs PP1, about 17 minutes. Top-line and PP1 work at $3,400 in a 6.5 total game.
Oliver Kapanen (MTL C, $3,400): With Suzuki out, Kapanen centers the Montreal top line between Caufield and Slafkovský and runs PP1, about 15 minutes. How a top-line center on PP1 still costs $3,400 is a mystery.
Blocks Floor
MacKenzie Weegar (UTA D, $4,700): Weegar plays on the Utah top pair with Mikhail Sergachev and runs PP2, about 23 minutes. He should block two or three shots, with a 41.5% chance at the 3-block bonus. Cash and floor play.
Thomas Harley (DAL D, $4,600): Harley plays on the Dallas top pair with Miro Heiskanen and runs PP2, about 25 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 35.6% chance at the bonus. Use him the same way, as a cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Blake Coleman over 1.5 shots on goal (-138): he plays on the Minnesota third line and runs PP2, and we have him at about two shots.
Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots on goal (-130): he plays on the Columbus top line and runs PP1, and we have him at about two shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Dostal and Kochetkov are expected, not confirmed. If Dostal sits, switch to Kochetkov. If Kochetkov sits, switch to Hart.
- Dan Vladar is the only confirmed goalie on the slate. Our feeds disagree on Hart and Lankinen. A backup in the Vancouver net makes ANA PP1 even better.
- Los Angeles is on a back-to-back after travel, its third game in four nights. A back-to-back goalie is often the backup, so check the Kings net before you play Chicago skaters.
- Minnesota and Nashville are on their third game in four nights. Watch the morning skate for any rest days.
- Montreal is without Suzuki and San Jose is without Wennberg and Chernyshov. Check the line rushes before you lock Kapanen or Stenberg.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Dostal, Celebrini, Thompson and Werenski, then fill with the salary that is left. In tournaments, run the full ANA PP1 with Dostal, build a second lineup around MIN PP1 with Kochetkov, and use FLA PP1 with Kochetkov as the contrarian build.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five skaters on a team's top power play unit. When that unit scores, several of them usually get a point, so their DK scores move together. Tonight the best example is ANA PP1 against a Vancouver kill that ranks last in the league.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often plays tired, and it often starts its backup goalie. That can lower the team's skaters and raise the skaters against it. Los Angeles is the only back-to-back team tonight, and it traveled, so wait for the Kings goalie news before you lock Chicago pieces.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.