Four games means heavier stacks, and we want a goalie who wins when our stack scores. All four games carry a 6.5 total, and Edmonton has the most goals implied at 3.66 against Calgary. We build around the Edmonton top power play unit (EDM PP1). Mackenzie Blackwood is our cash goalie, and Tristan Jarry is the GPP goalie who rides with that stack.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Lukas Dostal, started and lost, making 27 saves but allowing six goals for -0.1 DK points. The ANA PP1 stack scored 58.2 DK points, fifth of 22 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ WSH | 6.5 | WSH -235 | WSH 3.65, PHI 2.59 | PHI on a back-to-back after travel |
| CGY @ EDM | 6.5 | EDM -182 | EDM 3.66, CGY 2.94 | EDM PP 1st vs 22nd ranked PK |
| NJD @ COL | 6.5 | COL -152 | COL 3.43, NJD 2.97 | NJD on a back-to-back after travel |
| TOR @ SEA | 6.5 | TOR -140 | TOR 3.49, SEA 3.14 | SEA PK 31st in xG allowed |
Edmonton has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, and the Calgary kill ranks 22nd in expected goals allowed per 60. Toronto gets the other good one, because Seattle's kill ranks 31st. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Marshall Rifai (TOR, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Jake McCabe, Troy Stecher, Darren Raddysh |
| Owen Tippett (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Cole Knuble, Noah Cates, Matvei Michkov |
| Travis Konecny (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Cole Knuble, Noah Cates, Matvei Michkov |
| Jared McCann (SEA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jani Nyman, Berkly Catton, Shane Wright |
| Kirill Marchenko (TOR, RW) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Nick Paul, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin |
| Mattias Ekholm (EDM, D) | Out | 6 | Connor Murphy, Shakir Mukhamadullin, Evan Bouchard |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Mackenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,100), cash
Blackwood is expected to start, not yet confirmed. He wins 57.7% of the time, and New Jersey is implied for 2.97 goals while playing the second night of a back-to-back after travel. He should face about 28 shots and make about 25 saves, which gives him a save floor to go with the win. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Jarry.
Tristan Jarry (EDM, $8,200), GPP
Jarry is also expected, not confirmed. His 61.7% win chance is the best of any goalie we can name today, and Calgary is implied for 2.94 goals. He should see about 27 shots and make about 24 saves. We want him because he wins when EDM PP1 hits. If Edmonton turns to its backup, switch to Blackwood.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton is implied for 3.66 goals against Devin Cooley, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Both Edmonton units get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings: the forwards sit 36.2 points above the Calgary defense, and the defensemen sit 69.1 points above it, the biggest gap on the slate. The McDavid line (EDM1) drives 56.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts. The power play adds more: Edmonton ranks 1st in expected goals per 60 and Calgary's kill ranks 22nd. Vasily Podkolzin and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins complete the unit at $38,100. It has the top 90th percentile on the slate (108.2), and correlation adds 12.6 points, the most of any stack. Cash and GPP.
TOR PP1: Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Darren Raddysh
Toronto is implied for 3.49 goals against Philipp Grubauer, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Toronto forwards get a SMASH tag, 32.4 points above the Seattle defense. The Matthews line (TOR1) sits at 49.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts, so we lean on the power play: Toronto ranks 11th in expected goals per 60, and Seattle's kill ranks 31st. Kirill Marchenko and Gavin McKenna fill out the unit at $30,500, and the 90th percentile (92.6) is second on the slate. GPP.
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas (third stack)
Colorado is implied for 3.43 goals against Jake Allen, who is confirmed. The Colorado defensemen get a SMASH tag, 57.5 points above the New Jersey defense, and the MacKinnon line drives 54.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Colorado's power play ranks 23rd in expected goals per 60 and New Jersey's kill ranks 9th, so we want this unit for its 5v5 volume. Colorado plays at the fastest 5v5 pace in the league, and New Jersey comes in on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Nazem Kadri and T.J. Hughes complete it at $32,400, with a 90th percentile of 89.9. On a four game slate we eat the chalk, and this is our third build. GPP, and it pairs with Blackwood.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM F1 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin | +9.2 | CGY F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 180 min |
| NJD F2 | Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Arseny Gritsyuk | +7.5 | COL F1 (40%) | Full line, 95 min |
| WSH F2 | Aliaksei Protas, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson | +7.2 | PHI F1 (36%) | Full line, 144 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
SEA F1: Bobby McMann, Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers ($12,400 total)
This is the cheapest line or unit in the top half of the slate by 90th percentile (52.8). All three run PP2, and they face a Toronto team that allows the second most 5v5 shots per 60. At $12,400 for three skaters, it is the natural bring-back for a TOR PP1 build and leaves room for a top goalie.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: EDM PP1. Pivot: COL PP1. Edmonton's power play is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin, and we play it. On a four game slate the pivot is a second build. Colorado's top unit costs $5,700 less and comes in at less than half the popularity.
Chalk goalie: Logan Thompson. Pivot: Blackwood. Thompson is the most popular goalie, but he is a game-time decision with a lower-body injury and not confirmed, so we will not build around him. If he sits, Charlie Lindgren is the Washington backup. Blackwood and Jarry are the goalies we trust.
Skaters
Centers
Dylan Strome ($5,200): cash. Strome centers the Washington top line and runs PP1, about 18 minutes a night. Washington is the biggest favorite on the slate at -235 and is implied for 3.65 goals. He should get about two shots, and his floor is solid for the price.
Brock Nelson ($4,800): GPP. Colorado's second line runs through Nelson, and he plays PP2, about 17 and a half minutes. His line sits at 52.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the tired Devils are the opponent. He should come in low-owned, and he fits beside a COL PP1 build with Blackwood.
Wingers
Alex Tuch ($6,400): cash. Washington uses Tuch on the top line with Strome and on PP2, about 19 minutes. He should get two or three shots, and he has the best projection of any winger outside our stacks.
Artturi Lehkonen ($5,300): GPP. Lehkonen skates on the Colorado top line with MacKinnon and Necas but plays the second power play, so the field skips him. He gets top line minutes, about 18, for a lot less than his linemates cost. His ceiling (18.0) is real if the MacKinnon line runs Allen.
Defensemen
Vince Dunn ($4,600): cash. Top pair with Adam Larsson, PP1 quarterback, about 23 minutes: Dunn gets the full Seattle workload. He should get two or three shots against a Toronto team that gives up a lot of them. He is a good value at $4,600.
Jakob Chychrun ($6,600): GPP. On the Washington top pair with Matt Roy, Chychrun also runs PP1, about 23 and a half minutes. The Washington defensemen get a SMASH tag, 33.2 points above the Philadelphia defense. He should get two or three shots, and his ceiling (20.5) is near the top of the position.
Value Plays
Kasperi Kapanen (EDM W, $3,000): Edmonton slots Kapanen on the second line with Nugent-Hopkins and on PP2, about 17 minutes. Zach Hyman is a game-time call, which could push even more work his way.
Berkly Catton (SEA C, $2,800): With Jared McCann out, Catton runs Seattle's top power play, about 14 and a half minutes overall. How a PP1 center still costs $2,800 is a mystery.
Blocks Floor
Connor Murphy (EDM D, $3,400): Murphy skates on the Edmonton second pair with Ryan Shea, about 21 minutes, with no power play role. With Ekholm out, he should block about two shots, with a 38.5% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate. Cash and floor play.
Martin Fehervary (WSH D, $3,300): Same job in Washington: second pair with Timothy Liljegren, about 21 minutes, no power play. He should block about two shots, with a 34.2% chance at the bonus. Another cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Tyson Foerster (PHI) over 1.5 shots on goal (-130): he plays on the Philadelphia third line and runs PP2, and we have him at about two shots, the biggest gap to the line on the slate. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Blackwood and Jarry are expected, not confirmed. If Blackwood sits, switch to Jarry. If Jarry sits, switch to Blackwood. Jake Allen is the only confirmed goalie.
- Logan Thompson is a game-time decision. If Charlie Lindgren starts for Washington, Philadelphia skaters get a little better.
- Philadelphia and New Jersey are on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Joseph Woll is expected, not confirmed, for the Flyers, and a back-to-back goalie is often the backup.
- Kirill Marchenko (TOR PP1) and Zach Hyman are game-time calls. Check the line rushes before you lock TOR PP1 or Kapanen.
- Our feeds disagree on the Toronto starter. Sergei Bobrovsky is the expected goalie, so watch the morning skate.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Blackwood, Strome, Tuch and Dunn, then add EDM PP1 pieces with the salary that is left. In tournaments, run EDM PP1 with Jarry, build a second lineup around TOR PP1 with Blackwood, and use COL PP1 with Blackwood as the third build. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
The three forwards on a line are on the ice together at 5v5, so one goal often gives two or three of them points. Their DK scores move together, and a tournament lineup needs that kind of spike. Tonight the McDavid line is the clearest case, driving 56.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts with a +9.2 matchup edge.
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
Yes, when you can. A goalie wins more often when his own skaters score, so Jarry with EDM PP1 lines up well. Never play a goalie against your main stack, and avoid stacking Calgary skaters if Jarry is your goalie.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.