Eleven games means more stacks to pick from and more room for one-offs around them. Five games carry a 6.5 total, and San Jose has the most goals implied at 3.72 against Vancouver. We build around the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1). Andrei Vasilevskiy is our cash goalie, and he is already confirmed.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Mackenzie Blackwood, won and scored 13 DK points. The EDM PP1 stack scored 52.3 DK points, third of 8 PP1 units.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG @ TBL | 5.5 | TBL -245 | TBL 3.44, WPG 2.39 | TBL on four days of rest |
| UTA @ PIT | 6.5 | UTA -130 | UTA 3.53, PIT 3.28 | PIT without Rust, Malkin day-to-day |
| CBJ @ CAR | 6.5 | CAR -255 | CAR 3.69, CBJ 2.55 | CBJ PK 29th in xG allowed |
| CHI @ DET | 5.5 | DET -152 | DET 3.08, CHI 2.65 | DET PK 26th in xG allowed |
| NYI @ MIN | 5.5 | MIN -188 | MIN 3.16, NYI 2.46 | MIN PP 4th vs NYI PK 30th |
| MTL @ DAL | 5.5 | DAL -176 | DAL 3.19, MTL 2.56 | MTL without Suzuki |
| WSH @ NSH | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | WSH 3.19, NSH 3.19 | WSH on a back-to-back after travel |
| BOS @ STL | 5.5 | Pick'em (-110) | BOS 2.85, STL 2.85 | none |
| VAN @ SJS | 6.5 | SJS -178 | SJS 3.72, VAN 3.03 | VAN PK 32nd in xG allowed |
| OTT @ LAK | 5.5 | OTT -118 | OTT 2.93, LAK 2.83 | LAK on its third game in four nights |
| BUF @ ANA | 6.5 | BUF -142 | BUF 3.54, ANA 3.18 | ANA 30th in 5v5 xG allowed |
Minnesota has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 4th in expected goals per 60, and the Islanders' kill ranks 30th in expected goals allowed per 60. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki (MTL, C) | Out | 9 | Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby, Tommy Novak |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Dylan Samberg, Dylan DeMelo, Neal Pionk |
| Thomas Chabot (OTT, D) | Out | 7 | Tyler Kleven, Artem Zub, Jordan Spence |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere |
| William Eklund (OTT, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Warren Foegele, Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson |
| Evgeni Malkin (PIT, C) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby, Tommy Novak |
| Taylor Hall (CAR, LW) | Out | 6 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,400), cash
Vasilevskiy is confirmed, and Tampa Bay wins 67.9% of the time. Winnipeg is implied for 2.39 goals, the fewest on the slate. He should face about 24 shots and make about 21 saves. Pyotr Kochetkov wins a hair more often (68.7%), but he costs $100 more and is not confirmed, so we take the cheaper, confirmed goalie.
Jake Oettinger (DAL, $8,000), GPP
Oettinger is expected to start, not yet confirmed; he was in the starter's net at the morning skate. Dallas wins 61.1% of the time, Montreal is implied for 2.56 goals, and his 11.1% shutout chance is the best on the slate. He should face about 21 shots, so the ceiling comes from the win and a possible shutout. He rides with our DAL PP1 stack. If Dallas turns to its backup, switch to Kochetkov.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek
Minnesota is implied for 3.16 goals against Ilya Sorokin, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Kaprizov line (MIN1) drives 54.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and it has a +12.8 line matchup edge against the Islanders' top line. On the power play, Minnesota ranks 4th in expected goals per 60, and the New York kill ranks 30th. Quinn Hughes and Maxim Shabanov complete the unit at $33,100. It has the top 90th percentile on the slate (101.1), and correlation adds 11.7 points. GPP, and MIN1 alone works in cash.
DAL PP1: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen
Dallas is implied for 3.19 goals against Jakub Dobes, who is confirmed. Montreal plays without Nick Suzuki. The Dallas power play ranks 2nd in expected goals per 60, and the Montreal kill ranks 16th. At 5v5 the Robertson line (DAL1) sits at an even 50.0% of the shot attempts, and Dallas plays the slowest 5v5 pace in the league, so this is a power play bet. Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz complete it at $30,900. The 90th percentile (95.9) is second on the slate, and correlation adds 11.8 points, the most of any stack. GPP, with Oettinger.
CAR PP1: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers (contrarian)
Carolina is implied for 3.69 goals against Jet Greaves, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Both Carolina units get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings: the forwards sit 49.1 points above the Columbus defense and the defensemen sit 39.6 above it. The Aho line (CAR1) drives 61.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Carolina's power play ranks 6th in expected goals per 60, and the Columbus kill ranks 29th. Jackson Blake and Shayne Gostisbehere complete it at $29,800, with a 90th percentile of 90.7. It is the least popular of the top seven PP1 units. GPP, and it pairs with Kochetkov.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR F2 | Nikolaj Ehlers, Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake | +16.8 | CBJ F1 (38% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 307 min |
| CAR F1 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | +16.4 | CBJ F1 (45%) | Full line, 128 min |
| MIN F1 | Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | +12.8 | NYI F1 (44%) | Full line, 323 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
SJS F2: Will Smith, Mason Marchment, Michael Misa ($12,400 total)
This is the cheapest line or unit in the top half of the slate by 90th percentile (53.5). Smith and Marchment also run PP1, and the San Jose forwards get the biggest SMASH gap on the slate, 57.9 points above the Vancouver defense. Vancouver allows the most 5v5 expected goals per 60 and has the worst kill in the league. At $12,400 for three skaters, it fits next to MIN PP1 and still leaves room for Vasilevskiy.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: DET PP1. Pivot: UTA PP1. Detroit's top unit is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin, against a Chicago team that ranks 31st in 5v5 expected goals allowed. Utah's top unit costs $3,600 more but has a higher 90th percentile (90.9 to 88.3) at a little over half the popularity, and Utah is implied for 3.53 goals.
Chalk goalie: Jesper Wallstedt. Pivot: Pyotr Kochetkov. Wallstedt is the most popular goalie and a fine play at 62.5% to win, and he fits a MIN PP1 build. Kochetkov wins more often (68.7%), comes in less popular, and faces neither of our top two stacks.
Skaters
Centers
Macklin Celebrini ($9,300): cash. Celebrini centers the San Jose top line and runs PP1, about 22 and a half minutes. He should get about four shots against the worst kill in the league, and he has the best projection on the slate. Alexander Wennberg is out, so the Sharks lean on his line even more.
Tage Thompson ($7,900): GPP. Buffalo puts Thompson on the top line and PP1, about 19 minutes. He should get three or four shots, and Buffalo is implied for 3.54 goals against an Anaheim team that ranks 30th in 5v5 expected goals allowed. He should come in low-owned.
Wingers
Rickard Rakell ($5,800): cash. Top line with Sidney Crosby and PP1, about 21 and a half minutes: Rakell plays more than any Pittsburgh forward, with Bryan Rust on injured reserve and Evgeni Malkin day-to-day. Expect two or three shots, and at $5,800 he is a good value.
Nikita Kucherov ($8,500): GPP. Kucherov plays on the Tampa Bay top line with Brayden Point and runs PP1, about 20 minutes. He should get about three shots, and Tampa Bay is implied for 3.44 goals. His line has a +9.4 matchup edge, and his ceiling (27.3) is tied for second among wingers.
Defensemen
Moritz Seider ($6,300): cash. Seider plays about 27 minutes on the Detroit top pair with Ben Chiarot and runs PP1. He should get two or three shots and block about two, which gives him the best floor of any defenseman. The field likes him too, and for once we agree with the field.
Rasmus Dahlin ($6,500): GPP. On the Buffalo top pair and PP1, Dahlin plays about 23 minutes. The Buffalo defensemen get a SMASH tag, 54.7 points above the Anaheim defense. Two or three shots is the baseline, and his ceiling (21.4) is tied for second at the position.
Value Plays
Collin Graf (SJS W, $3,100): Graf skates on the San Jose top line with Celebrini, about 17 minutes, with Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov out. How a top line winger against Vancouver still costs $3,100 is a mystery.
Jonathan Marchessault (NSH W, $3,300): Marchessault plays on the third line but stays on the Nashville top power play, about 16 minutes. Washington comes in on the second night of a back-to-back after travel.
Blocks Floor
Brandt Clarke (LAK D, $5,700): Clarke plays on the Los Angeles top pair with Erik Gustafsson and runs PP2, about 21 and a half minutes. He should block two or three shots, with a 44.8% chance at the 3-block bonus, the best on the slate. Cash and floor play.
MacKenzie Weegar (UTA D, $5,000): Same job in Utah: top pair with Mikhail Sergachev, PP2, about 23 minutes. He should block about two shots, with a 38.1% chance at the bonus. Another cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Alex DeBrincat (DET) over 3.5 shots on goal (-108): he plays on the Detroit top line and runs PP1, and we have him at about four shots against a Chicago team that gives up the third most 5v5 shots per 60.
John Carlson (TBL) over 1.5 shots on goal (-144): he plays on the Tampa Bay top pair with J.J. Moser and runs PP1, and we have him at about two shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Oettinger, Kochetkov, Wallstedt, Sorokin and Greaves are expected, not confirmed. If Oettinger sits, switch to Kochetkov. If Kochetkov sits, switch to Wallstedt. Vasilevskiy, John Gibson, Dobes and Arturs Silovs are confirmed.
- Washington is on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Charlie Lindgren is expected, not confirmed, and a back-to-back goalie is often the backup.
- Los Angeles plays its third game in four nights.
- Malkin is day-to-day with an illness. Check the Pittsburgh line rushes before you lock Rakell.
- Our feeds disagree on the Buffalo, Anaheim and Ottawa starters, and one feed adds Dylan Larkin to DET PP1. Watch the morning skate for those games.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Vasilevskiy, Celebrini, Rakell and Seider, then add MIN1 pieces with the salary that is left. In tournaments, run MIN PP1 or DAL PP1 with Oettinger, and use CAR PP1 with Kochetkov as the leverage build. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm their starter at or after the morning skate, and some wait until warmups. Tonight Vasilevskiy, Gibson, Dobes and Silovs are confirmed, and most of the others are still expected. Build with a switch plan, and check the crease again before lock.
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup needs a safe floor: a confirmed goalie who should win, plus skaters with big minutes and PP1 time. A GPP lineup needs a ceiling and some players the field skips, so it stacks a full line or power play unit. Tonight that means Vasilevskiy and Seider for cash, and CAR PP1 for leverage.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.