Three games means we stack heavier and pair our goalie with the stack. All three games carry a 6.5 total, and Florida has the most goals implied at 3.62 against a Winnipeg team on the second night of a back-to-back. We build around the Florida top power play unit (FLA PP1). Akira Schmid is our goalie, and he is the only one already confirmed.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy, won but scored only 3.9 DK points after he allowed four goals. The MIN PP1 stack scored 57.6 DK points, 11th of 22 PP1 units. Our value plays split: Jonathan Marchessault scored 10.5 DK points at $3,300, and Collin Graf scored 1.5, while neither blocks pick reached three blocks. Both props won, with Alex DeBrincat at four shots and John Carlson at three.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD @ VGK | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | NJD 3.13, VGK 3.13 | NJD on its third game in four nights |
| WPG @ FLA | 6.5 | FLA -230 | FLA 3.62, WPG 2.61 | WPG on a back-to-back after travel |
| SEA @ CGY | 6.5 | SEA -118 | SEA 3.27, CGY 3.16 | SEA PK 31st in xG allowed |
Florida has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 5th in expected goals per 60, and the Winnipeg kill ranks 28th in expected goals allowed per 60. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 9 | Sandis Vilmanis, Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk |
| Josh Morrissey (WPG, D) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Dylan Samberg, Mario Ferraro, Dylan DeMelo |
| Jared McCann (SEA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jani Nyman, Bobby McMann, Jordan Eberle |
| Jacob Markstrom (FLA, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Akira Schmid |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Akira Schmid (FLA, $8,300), cash and GPP
Schmid is confirmed, and Florida wins 66.7% of the time. No other goalie on the slate gets to 55%, so he is our goalie in every build. Winnipeg is implied for 2.61 goals, the fewest on the slate, and it plays its second game in two nights after travel. He should face about 25 shots and make about 22 saves, and his 7.4% shutout chance is the best of the six starters. He pairs with FLA PP1, which is how we want to build on three games.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
FLA PP1: Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart
Florida is implied for 3.62 goals against Nico Daws, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Winnipeg is on a back-to-back after travel and plays its third game in four nights. The Florida power play ranks 5th in expected goals per 60, and the Winnipeg kill ranks 28th. The Tkachuk line (FLA1) drives 56.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Brad Marchand on injured reserve keeps more of the work with the Tkachuks. Carter Verhaeghe and Seth Jones complete the unit at $33,400. Its 90th percentile (96.5) is 14 points clear of every other stack. Cash and GPP, with Schmid.
NJD PP1: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt
New Jersey is implied for 3.13 goals against Carter Hart, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and is listed day-to-day. The Hughes line (NJD2) drives 57.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts. The Devils power play ranks 6th in expected goals per 60. Vegas allows the second fewest expected goals per 60 on the kill, but it has stopped only 72.0% of power plays, 29th in the league. Luke Evangelista and Luke Hughes complete it at $30,600, and correlation adds 9.6 points at the 90th percentile, the most on the slate. New Jersey plays its third game in four nights. GPP.
SEA PP1: Bobby McMann, Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers (third stack)
Seattle is implied for 3.27 goals against Dustin Wolf, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Seattle defensemen get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, 30.1 points above the Calgary defense. At 5v5 the McMann line (SEA1) sits at only 46.2% of the shot attempts, so this is a power play bet: the Calgary kill ranks 23rd in expected goals allowed per 60. Jared McCann is out, which keeps McMann and Eberle on the top unit. Chandler Stephenson and Vince Dunn complete it at $22,800, the cheapest PP1 among our three, with a 90th percentile of 80.9. On a small slate we eat the chalk, and this is the second most popular stack. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA F1 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett | +10.2 | WPG F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 78 min |
| CGY F2 | Ryan Strome, Martin Pospisil, Matvei Gridin | +5.3 | SEA F1 (37%) | Full line, 73 min |
| VGK F1 | Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone | +4.0 | NJD F1 (42%) | Full line, 578 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: FLA PP1. Pivot: NJD PP1. Florida's top unit is the most popular stack by a wide margin, and we play it: on three games, fading the best power play costs more than it saves. NJD PP1 is the second build, at about a third of the popularity and with the most correlation on the slate.
Chalk goalie: Philipp Grubauer. Pivot: Akira Schmid. Grubauer is the most popular goalie, but Seattle wins only 51.7% of the time. Schmid comes in a bit less popular, wins 66.7% of the time, and faces neither of our top two stacks.
Skaters
Centers
Sam Reinhart ($6,700): cash. Reinhart centers the Florida second line with Verhaeghe and runs PP1, about 19 minutes. He should get two or three shots, and no skater on the slate is more likely to score a goal. The field will be all over him, and on three games we go with the field.
Jack Eichel ($8,100): GPP. Eichel plays on the Vegas top line with Mark Stone and runs PP1, about 19 and a half minutes. He should get two or three shots, and his line has a +4.0 matchup edge. He should come in low-owned for a player at his level.
Wingers
Brady Tkachuk ($7,700): cash. Top line and PP1 for Florida, about 17 minutes. Tkachuk has the best projection on the slate, should get three or four shots, and has the best chance of five or more shots of any skater. He is popular for a reason.
Mitch Marner ($7,100): GPP. Marner plays on the Vegas second line but runs PP1 with Eichel, about 18 minutes. He should get about two shots, and he is more of a passer than a shooter. The Vegas power play ranks 3rd in expected goals per 60. He should come in low-owned.
Defensemen
Seth Jones ($5,000): cash. Jones plays about 23 minutes on the Florida second pair with Niko Mikkola and quarterbacks PP1. Expect about two shots, and his floor is tied for the best of any defenseman on the slate. His pair has a +5.7 matchup edge against the Winnipeg top line.
Brandon Montour ($5,300): GPP. On the Seattle second pair with Ryker Evans and on PP2, Montour plays about 22 and a half minutes. He should get two or three shots, and his 12.2% chance at five or more shots is the best of any defenseman tonight. He has the top Elo rating in the Seattle defense that gets the SMASH tag.
Value Plays
Mackie Samoskevich (SEA W, $3,500): Samoskevich plays on the Seattle second line and on PP2, about 15 and a half minutes. He should get about two shots, and Seattle is implied for 3.27 goals.
William Karlsson (VGK C, $3,300): Karlsson centers the Vegas second line with Marner and stays on PP2, about 16 and a half minutes. How a second line center in a 6.5 total game costs $3,300 is a mystery.
Props to Watch
Ryan Strome (CGY) over 1.5 shots on goal (-114): he plays on the Calgary second line, and we have him at about two shots against a Seattle team that gives up the most 5v5 shots per 60 on the slate.
Mark Stone (VGK) over 1.5 shots on goal (-140): he plays on the Vegas top line with Eichel and runs PP1, and we have him at about two shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Schmid is the only confirmed goalie. Grubauer, Hart, Wolf, Connor Hellebuyck and Daws are expected, not confirmed, and our feeds disagree on Grubauer and Hart.
- Hart is day-to-day. If Vegas turns to Adin Hill, keep NJD PP1 in the build and recheck its popularity.
- Winnipeg is on the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Daws is expected, not confirmed, and a back-to-back goalie is often the backup.
- New Jersey plays its third game in four nights. Watch the Devils line rushes before you lock NJD PP1.
- Calgary goalie Devin Cooley is day-to-day. Wolf is expected, not confirmed.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Schmid, Brady Tkachuk, Reinhart and Seth Jones, then fill around that Florida core. In tournaments, run FLA PP1 with Schmid, use NJD PP1 as the second build, and use SEA PP1 as the third. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie and can look slow late in the game. Tonight Winnipeg is in that spot after travel, which is part of why Florida is the biggest favorite on the slate. Wait for the goalie news before you lock skaters against that team.
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
A PP1 stack is the five players on a team's top power play unit. When that unit scores, several of them get points together, so their scores move together. Tonight FLA PP1 is the top stack, with Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe and Jones.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.