Six afternoon games give us room for two or three real stacks without forcing chalk everywhere. Four of the six games carry a 6.5 total, and Boston has the most goals implied on the slate at 3.64 against Chicago. We build around the Tampa Bay top power play unit (TBL PP1), which has the highest 90th percentile of any stack. Jeremy Swayman is our goalie: Boston is the biggest favorite on the slate.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Akira Schmid, won and scored 14.4 DK points. The FLA PP1 stack scored 73.9 DK points, second of 6 PP1 units. The value plays split: Mackie Samoskevich scored 22.1 DK points at $3,500, and William Karlsson scored 1.5 at $3,300. The props went 1-1, with Ryan Strome at two shots and Mark Stone stuck at one.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI @ BOS | 6.5 | BOS -230 | BOS 3.64, CHI 2.62 | CHI PP 31st in xG per 60 |
| STL @ DET | 5.5 | STL -118 | STL 2.87, DET 2.77 | DET PK 29th in kill rate |
| TBL @ NSH | 6.5 | TBL -176 | TBL 3.43, NSH 2.77 | NSH PK 3rd in kill rate |
| EDM @ NYI | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | EDM 3.12, NYI 3.12 | EDM PP 1st vs NYI PK 29th in xG allowed |
| BUF @ LAK | 5.5 | BUF -132 | BUF 3.04, LAK 2.79 | LAK PK 31st in kill rate |
| OTT @ SJS | 6.5 | OTT -137 | OTT 3.41, SJS 3.09 | none |
Edmonton has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, and the Islanders kill ranks 29th in expected goals allowed per 60. No team plays on a back-to-back. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured Reserve (suspension) | 9 | Alex DeBrincat, Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere |
| Brandt Clarke (LAK, D) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Joel Edmundson, Erik Gustafsson |
| Alexander Wennberg (SJS, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Collin Graf, Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith |
| Igor Chernyshov (SJS, LW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Collin Graf, Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith |
| Linus Ullmark (OTT, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Samuel Ersson |
| Alex Lyon (BUF, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Colten Ellis |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Jeremy Swayman (BOS, $8,500), cash and GPP
Swayman is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Boston wins 66.7% of the time, the best mark on the slate, and Chicago is implied for 2.62 goals, the fewest on the slate. He should face about 24 shots and make 21 or 22 saves, and his 9.4% shutout chance is the best of the twelve starters. Chicago drives only 44.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts, 31st in the league. If Boston turns to its backup, we switch to Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,300), who is expected to start for Tampa Bay at a 61.1% win chance.
Vasilevskiy is also the goalie we would pair with TBL PP1 in a second build. If he does not start, we move back to Swayman. Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel
Tampa Bay is implied for 3.43 goals against Juuse Saros, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Kucherov line (TBL1) drives 54.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the team ranks 3rd in 5v5 shot share. The Nashville kill is no gift: it stops 85.0% of power plays, 3rd in the league, and ranks 10th in expected goals allowed per 60. We play the unit regardless: Brayden Point and Charle-Edouard D'Astous complete it at $31,700 and correlation adds 10.5 points at the 90th percentile, the most on the slate. Its 90th percentile of 93.4 tops every stack. Cash and GPP, with Swayman or Vasilevskiy.
BOS PP1: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy
Boston has the most goals implied on the slate, 3.64, against Arvid Soderblom, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Boston forwards get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, 30.4 points above the Chicago defense. The Pastrnak line (BOS1) sits at 51.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts and has a +9.5 matchup edge. The Boston power play ranks only 24th in expected goals per 60, and the Chicago kill ranks 14th, so we expect this stack to do its damage at 5v5. Elias Lindholm and Morgan Geekie complete it at $24,300. It is the second most popular stack, and it pairs with Swayman. Cash and GPP.
EDM PP1: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard
Edmonton is implied for 3.12 goals against Ilya Sorokin, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Edmonton power play ranks 1st in expected goals per 60, and the Islanders kill ranks 29th in expected goals allowed. The McDavid line (EDM1) drives 56.1% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the Edmonton defense gets a SMASH tag. Zach Hyman is on injured reserve, which keeps more of the work with McDavid and Draisaitl, and the Oilers come in on two days of rest. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kasperi Kapanen complete it at $35,400. It is the least popular of our three stacks. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT F1 | Fabian Zetterlund, Tim Stuetzle, Claude Giroux | +15.8 | SJS F1 (46% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 60 min |
| TBL F2 | Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Pontus Holmberg | +13.3 | NSH F1 (38%) | Cirelli and Hagel, 810 min |
| BOS F1 | Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak, JJ Peterka | +9.5 | CHI F1 (43%) | Full line, 62 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Value Stack
STL F1: Jimmy Snuggerud, Robert Thomas, Jake Neighbours ($13,600 total)
All three play on the St. Louis top line and on PP1, and the line has a 90th percentile of 50.9, in the top half of the slate. Detroit stops only 71.6% of power plays, 29th in the league, and John Gibson is confirmed for the Red Wings. At 5v5 the line sits at 49.3% of the shot attempts, so the power play has to carry it. At $13,600 it leaves room for TBL PP1 or EDM PP1 at full price.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: OTT PP1. Pivot: NYI PP1. Ottawa's top unit is the most popular stack on the slate. The Islanders unit costs about the same ($25,100 against $24,800), has the same 90th percentile range (87.4 against 87.2) and draws much less of the field. We would rather spend on TBL PP1 than chase either.
Chalk goalie: Jeremy Swayman. Pivot: Andrei Vasilevskiy. Swayman is the most popular goalie. We play him: he has the best win chance and the best shutout chance. Vasilevskiy comes in less popular, wins 61.1% of the time, and faces neither of our top two stacks.
Skaters
Centers
Tim Stuetzle ($6,000): cash. Stuetzle centers the Ottawa top line and runs PP1, about 22 minutes a night. He should get two or three shots, and the Ottawa forwards get a SMASH tag against San Jose. Small fields will be on him, and we go with them.
Macklin Celebrini ($9,200): GPP. With Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov out, Celebrini carries the San Jose top line and PP1 for about 22 minutes. He should get three or four shots, and his 28.8 ceiling is the highest of any skater tonight. Ottawa's Samuel Ersson has a 5.20 goals against average in three games this season.
Wingers
Tage Thompson ($7,700): cash. Thompson plays on the Buffalo top line and the top power play, about 19 minutes. He should get three or four shots, and his 27% chance at five or more shots is near the top of the slate. The Los Angeles kill stops only 68.6% of power plays, 31st in the league.
Artemi Panarin ($6,900): GPP. With Mats Zuccarello out, Panarin plays the top line and PP1 for the Kings, about 21 minutes. The Buffalo kill ranks 26th in expected goals allowed per 60. He should come in low-owned for a top-line winger at this price.
Defensemen
Matthew Schaefer ($6,800): cash. Schaefer plays about 26 minutes on the Islanders top pair and quarterbacks PP1. He should get about three shots, and his floor is tied for the best of any defenseman tonight. Edmonton ranks 25th in expected goals allowed per 60 on the kill.
Rasmus Dahlin ($6,600): GPP. Dahlin runs the Buffalo top pair and PP1, about 23 and a half minutes. The Buffalo defense gets a SMASH tag, 45.7 points above the Los Angeles defense, the best defense matchup on the slate. He should come in low-owned.
Value Plays
Claude Giroux (OTT W, $3,300): Giroux plays on the Ottawa top line with Stuetzle and stays on PP1, about 18 minutes. How a top-line, PP1 winger costs $3,300 is a mystery.
Emil Heineman (NYI W, $3,000): Heineman plays on the Islanders second line and on PP2, about 16 minutes, in a game with 6.5 goals on the total.
Blocks Floor
Moritz Seider (DET D, $5,800): Seider plays about 27 minutes on the Detroit top pair with Ben Chiarot and runs PP1. He should block two or three shots and has a 40.5% chance at the 3-block bonus. A cash and floor play.
Connor Murphy (EDM D, $3,300): Murphy plays on the Edmonton second pair with Ryan Shea and is not on a power play unit. He should block about two shots, with a 34.8% chance at three or more, the best for his price. A cash and floor play.
Props to Watch
Kiefer Sherwood (SJS) over 1.5 shots on goal (-135): he plays on the San Jose third line and on PP2, and we have him at about two shots. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Only John Gibson and Tristan Jarry are confirmed. Swayman, Vasilevskiy, Saros, Soderblom and Sorokin are expected, not confirmed. If Swayman does not start, switch to Vasilevskiy, and the other way around.
- Our feeds disagree on Saros, Colten Ellis and Darcy Kuemper. Check the morning skate before you play anything against Nashville, Buffalo or Los Angeles.
- Brandt Clarke is a game-time call for Los Angeles. If he sits, Joel Edmundson and Erik Gustafsson pick up his minutes.
- Detroit is without Dylan Larkin. Watch the Red Wings line rushes before you lock Seider or the Detroit top line.
- No team on this slate is on a back-to-back.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Swayman, Stuetzle, Thompson and Schaefer, then fill around BOS PP1. In tournaments, run TBL PP1 with Swayman, use BOS PP1 as the second build, and use EDM PP1 as the low-owned third. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
In most builds, yes. A goalie wins when his team scores, so a goalie from the same team as your stack adds to the upside, and a goalie facing your stack works against it. Tonight Swayman with BOS PP1, or Vasilevskiy with TBL PP1, are the natural pairs.
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
Linemates are on the ice together, so one goal can give points to two or three of them at once. When a line has a big night, the lineups that stacked it climb fast in a tournament. Tonight TBL PP1 has the most correlation on the slate, which is why we build around it.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.