Ottawa plays its third game in four nights tonight, on the second half of a back-to-back in Anaheim, and the market still gives the Senators the most goals on the slate at 3.46. All four totals sit at 6.5, so the lines do not point us anywhere. Our build starts with the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1), which has the highest 90th percentile of any stack, and Karel Vejmelka, the only goalie on the four-game slate with a win chance above 55%. With so few games, we go deeper into each stack than we would on a full night.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Jeremy Swayman, did not start; Michael DiPietro started for Boston, won and scored 20.9 DK points. The TBL PP1 stack scored 67.9 DK points, third of 12 PP1 units. Both value plays missed: Claude Giroux and Emil Heineman scored 0.0 DK points, and Heineman played under a minute, while Moritz Seider (two blocks) and Connor Murphy (one) both missed the 3-block bonus. The Kiefer Sherwood shots over lost with zero shots.
Slate Overview
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ WSH | 6.5 | Pick'em (-110) | MIN 3.10, WSH 3.10 | MIN PP 5th vs WSH PK 22nd in xG |
| UTA @ PHI | 6.5 | UTA -176 | UTA 3.40, PHI 2.75 | PHI 5v5 offense 30th in xG |
| EDM @ NYR | 6.5 | NYR -128 | NYR 3.39, EDM 3.17 | EDM on a back-to-back after travel |
| OTT @ ANA | 6.5 | OTT -118 | OTT 3.46, ANA 3.35 | OTT on a back-to-back after travel, third game in four nights |
The best special teams spot belongs to Minnesota: its power play ranks 5th in expected goals per 60, and the Washington kill ranks 22nd in expected goals allowed per 60. Every rank is on our NHL team matchups.
High Impact Injuries
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Injured Reserve | 8 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Owen Tippett (PHI, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Matvei Michkov, Trevor Zegras, Porter Martone |
| Ryan Poehling (ANA, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson |
| Igor Shesterkin (NYR, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Dylan Garand |
| Joonas Korpisalo (NYR, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Dylan Garand |
| Linus Ullmark (OTT, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Jonas Johansson |
| Filip Gustavsson (MIN, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Jesper Wallstedt |
| Frederik Andersen (EDM, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Matt Tomkins |
Full report, updated all day: NHL injury report for DFS
Starting Goalies
Karel Vejmelka (UTA, $8,300), cash and GPP
Vejmelka is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Utah wins 61.1% of the time, and Philadelphia is implied for 2.75 goals, the fewest on the slate, with a 5v5 offense that ranks 30th in expected goals per 60. He should make about 21 saves and has a 7.7% shutout chance. If Utah turns to its backup, we switch to Dylan Garand ($7,800), who is confirmed for the Rangers at a 53.6% win chance, but we would not pair Garand with the Edmonton build.
Track every crease here: today's NHL starting goalies
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes
Minnesota is implied for 3.10 goals against Logan Thompson, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Kaprizov line (MIN1) drives 54.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and it has a +11.0 matchup edge against the Washington top line. The Wild power play ranks 5th in expected goals per 60, and the Washington kill ranks 22nd in expected goals allowed. Joel Eriksson Ek and Maxim Shabanov complete the unit, and correlation adds 12.7 points at the 90th percentile, the most on the slate. Both teams come in on two days of rest. It will be popular, and we play it anyway. Cash and GPP, with Vejmelka.
ANA PP1: Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson
Anaheim is implied for 3.35 goals against Jonas Johansson, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed, and has a 4.04 goals against average in three games this season. Ottawa plays on the second night of a back-to-back after travel, its third game in four nights. The Gauthier line (ANA2) sits at 50.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Anaheim ranks 10th in 5v5 shot share. The power play spot is middling: Anaheim ranks 14th in expected goals per 60, and the Ottawa kill ranks 11th, so we are betting on tired Ottawa legs. Jackson LaCombe and Mikael Granlund complete it. It is the chalk stack. GPP, and fine in cash.
UTA PP1: Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz (third stack)
Utah is implied for 3.40 goals against Dan Vladar, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Schmaltz line (UTA1) drives 54.5% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Utah ranks 4th in 5v5 shot share. The Flyers kill is a tough draw, 6th in expected goals allowed per 60, so this unit has to win at even strength. Mikhail Sergachev and Logan Cooley complete it, and correlation adds 11.4 points at the 90th percentile. On a four-game slate we eat the chalk, and this stack pairs with Vejmelka. GPP.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Line Matchup Edges
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT F1 | Fabian Zetterlund, Tim Stuetzle, Dylan Cozens | +15.3 | ANA F1 (42% of 5v5 time) | Stuetzle and Zetterlund, 391 min |
| UTA F2 | Lawson Crouse, Logan Cooley, Vincent Trocheck | +12.8 | PHI F1 (35%) | Cooley and Crouse, 107 min |
| MIN F1 | Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | +11.0 | WSH F1 (44%) | Full line, 335 min |
The edge is the expected 5v5 expected-goals share against the likely opposing lines, minus 50. It is new and not graded yet, so treat it as a tiebreaker. Every line card: NHL line matchups and edges
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: ANA PP1. Pivot: EDM PP1. Anaheim's top unit is the most popular stack, with MIN PP1 and OTT PP1 right behind it. On four games we play the chalk. The Edmonton unit draws far less of the field and its 90th percentile sits close to Anaheim's, so we use it as a second build. The back-to-back is the knock.
Chalk goalie: Karel Vejmelka. We play him. No other goalie on the main slate reaches a 55% win chance, so we have no pivot in net.
Skaters
Centers
Joel Eriksson Ek ($6,200): cash. Eriksson Ek centers the Minnesota top line and plays PP1, about 20 minutes a night. He should get about three shots, and small fields will be on him. He saves $3,400 against McDavid and keeps you in the primary stack.
Connor McDavid ($9,600): GPP. With Zach Hyman on injured reserve, McDavid carries the Edmonton top line and PP1 for about 22 minutes. His 29.0 ceiling is the highest of any skater tonight. The Oilers power play ranks 2nd in expected goals per 60.
Wingers
Matt Boldy ($7,700): cash. Boldy plays on the Minnesota top line and PP1, about 21 minutes. He should get three or four shots, and his 33% chance at five or more shots is second on the slate. He is one of the most popular wingers in small fields, and we go with them.
Leon Draisaitl ($8,800): GPP. Draisaitl skates on McDavid's wing at even strength and stays on PP1, about 21 minutes. He should get about three shots. He should come in low-owned for a 27.3 ceiling.
Defensemen
Quinn Hughes ($6,600): cash. Hughes plays about 28 and a half minutes on the Minnesota top pair and runs PP1. He should get two or three shots, and his floor is tied for the best of any defenseman tonight.
Evan Bouchard ($7,900): GPP. Bouchard plays about 25 minutes on the Edmonton top pair and quarterbacks PP1. The Edmonton defense gets a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, 50.7 points above the Rangers defense, the best unit matchup on the slate. The big fields mostly leave him alone at this price.
Value Plays
Vincent Trocheck (UTA C, $3,500): Trocheck centers the Utah second line and plays PP2, about 17 and a half minutes, and that line has a +12.8 matchup edge against the Flyers.
Kasperi Kapanen (EDM W, $3,400): Kapanen plays on the Edmonton second line and on PP1 with McDavid and Draisaitl, about 18 minutes. How a PP1 winger next to McDavid on the power play costs $3,400 is a mystery.
Props to Watch
Shane Pinto over 1.5 shots on goal (-146): he plays about 20 minutes on the Ottawa second line, and we have him at about two shots.
Fabian Zetterlund over 1.5 shots on goal (-114): he plays on the Ottawa top line with Stuetzle, and we also have him at about two shots, at a better price. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Vejmelka, Thompson, Vladar and Johansson are expected, not confirmed. If Vejmelka does not start, switch to Garand and drop the Edmonton build.
- Edmonton is on a back-to-back after travel. Matt Tomkins is confirmed in net, so that question is settled.
- Ottawa is on a back-to-back after travel, its third game in four nights. Watch the morning skate before you play Pinto or Zetterlund.
- Sean Durzi is day-to-day for the Rangers. If he sits, Vladislav Gavrikov, Marcus Pettersson and Adam Fox gain the work.
- Philadelphia lists Owen Tippett on injured reserve with a return date of today. Check the Flyers line rushes.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Vejmelka, Hughes, Boldy and Eriksson Ek, then fill around MIN PP1. In tournaments, run MIN PP1 with Vejmelka, use ANA PP1 as the second build and UTA PP1 as the third, and keep EDM PP1 for a low-owned build. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup only has to beat about half the field, so it chases floor: big minutes, PP1 time and a goalie who should win. A GPP lineup has to beat almost everyone, so it chases ceiling with a full stack and a few low-owned players. Tonight that means Hughes and Boldy for cash, and McDavid or Bouchard for tournaments.
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams confirm their starter after the morning skate, a few hours before puck drop, and some wait until warmups. Tonight Jesper Wallstedt, Garand and Tomkins are confirmed, and the rest are expected. Check the crease before lock, because one switch can change a whole build.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.