Colorado is a -240 favorite in Chicago tonight, the biggest price on the board, and both the Avalanche forwards and defense get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, which means they rate well above the Chicago units they face. We build around the Colorado top power play unit (COL PP1) with MacKenzie Blackwood in net. Florida has news too: Jacob Markstrom returns from an upper-body injury to face a Detroit team without the suspended Dylan Larkin. With four games on the board, we take the Colorado chalk and find our leverage in the second and third stacks.
Last Night
Our cash goalie, Karel Vejmelka, lost and scored -7.0 DK points after he allowed five goals on 20 shots. The MIN PP1 stack scored 64.3 DK points, fourth of 8 PP1 units. Vincent Trocheck paid off at $3,500 with 9.3 DK points, but Kasperi Kapanen scored only 3.0, and the props split: Fabian Zetterlund went over and Shane Pinto stayed under. Since we started grading on 10/29, our cash goalie is 2-2, the primary stack has finished top three in its group 2 of 4 times, value plays are 3-5 and props are 4-3.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when VGK at BOS and DET at FLA drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries and the line matchup edges.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK @ BOS | 6.5 | VGK -118 | VGK 3.19, BOS 3.09 | VGK PP 3rd vs BOS PK 19th in xG |
| DET @ FLA | 5.5 | FLA -184 | FLA 3.19, DET 2.51 | Larkin suspended, Markstrom back |
| COL @ CHI | 6.5 | COL -240 | COL 3.71, CHI 2.64 | CHI 30th in 5v5 xG |
| CGY @ SJS | 6.5 | SJS -126 | SJS 3.27, CGY 3.08 | CGY third game in four nights |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Blackwood (COL) | Expected | 67.6% | 2.64 | $8,400 |
| Jacob Markstrom (FLA) | Confirmed | 62.0% | 2.51 | $8,200 |
| Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) | Expected | 53.3% | 3.08 | $8,000 |
| Carter Hart (VGK) | Expected | 51.7% | 3.09 | $7,600 |
| Jeremy Swayman (BOS) | Confirmed | 48.3% | 3.19 | $7,800 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | Expected | 46.7% | 3.27 | $7,400 |
| John Gibson (DET) | Expected | 38.0% | 3.19 | $7,200 |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | Expected | 32.4% | 3.71 | $7,000 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured Reserve (suspension) | 9 | Alex DeBrincat, Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond |
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Sandis Vilmanis, Sam Reinhart, Brady Tkachuk |
| Alexander Wennberg (SJS, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Kiefer Sherwood, Collin Graf, Macklin Celebrini |
| Igor Chernyshov (SJS, LW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Kiefer Sherwood, Collin Graf, Macklin Celebrini |
| Devin Cooley (CGY, G) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Dustin Wolf |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL F1 | Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | +14.4 | CHI F1 (44% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 735 min |
| COL F2 | Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson, Nicolas Roy | +11.2 | CHI F1 (37%) | Landeskog and Nelson, 495 min |
| CGY F2 | Aydar Suniev, Morgan Frost, Yegor Sharangovich | +6.1 | SJS F1 (36%) | Full line, 57 min |
Vegas has the best special teams spot of the night: its power play ranks 3rd in expected goals per 60, and the Boston kill ranks 19th. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50, and we use it as a tiebreaker. The full lists are on our NHL team matchups, NHL injury report for DFS and NHL line matchups and edges.
Starting Goalies
MacKenzie Blackwood (COL, $8,400), cash and GPP
Blackwood is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Colorado has the best chance to win on the slate, and Chicago ranks 30th in 5v5 expected goals. He should make about 21 saves, and his 9.1% shutout chance is the best of any starter. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Markstrom, who is confirmed, and drop the Detroit build. Every crease updates on today's NHL starting goalies.
Stacks to Target
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas ($32,700 for the unit)
Colorado is implied for 3.71 goals against Spencer Knight, who is expected to start and took the starter's crease at the morning skate. The MacKinnon line (COL1) wins 54.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. The power play matchup is only average, Colorado 18th in power play expected goals and the Chicago kill 14th, so this stack has to win at even strength, where Colorado is the best team on the slate. Nazem Kadri and a third-line winger fill out the unit. On a big night (a top 10% result) this group scores about 96 DK points, the most of any stack, and the field knows it. Cash and GPP, with Blackwood.
FLA PP1: Sam Reinhart, Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk ($34,400 for the unit)
Florida is implied for 3.19 goals against John Gibson, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Florida power play ranks 5th in expected goals per 60, and the Detroit kill ranks 17th. The Tkachuk line with Sam Bennett (FLA1) wins 56.8% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. Reinhart plays on the second line but stays on PP1 with both Tkachuks, and Carter Verhaeghe and Seth Jones complete the unit. A big night is about 86 DK points, and far fewer people will play it than Colorado. GPP.
DET PP1: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider, Viktor Arvidsson ($29,600 for the unit, third stack)
Detroit is implied for 2.51 goals, the fewest on the slate, against Markstrom. With Larkin out until mid-November, Emmitt Finnie centers the DeBrincat line (DET1) and the top power play. DET1 wins 52.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, and the Detroit power play ranks 10th against the 8th-ranked Florida kill. We play it because its players score together more than any unit except Colorado's, and Seider plays about 26 minutes. GPP only, and never with Markstrom.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: COL PP1. Pivot: VGK PP1 ($30,300). Colorado's top unit is the most popular stack by a wide margin, and on a four-game night we eat that chalk. The Vegas top unit draws far less of the field, its big-night number sits right with the Boston and Detroit units, and it gets the best power play spot of the night. Use it as a second build with Blackwood, not Swayman.
Chalk goalie: MacKenzie Blackwood. We play him. Markstrom is the pivot, confirmed and less popular, but keep him away from the Detroit build.
Fades
Boston PP1. It is the second most popular stack on the slate, and it runs into the Vegas kill, which allows the 2nd fewest expected goals per 60. The Boston power play ranks 23rd. We would rather pay for Vegas in that game.
Connor Bedard ($6,500). Chicago's top center is cheap for his role, so some of the field will bite. Both Chicago units get a TOUGH tag against Colorado, and the Chicago power play ranks 31st. We pass.
Skaters
Centers
Nathan MacKinnon ($9,500): cash. MacKinnon centers the Colorado top line and runs PP1 for about 19 and a half minutes. He should get about four shots, his 35.8% chance at five or more is the best on the slate, and his 30.8 ceiling is the highest of any skater. Small fields will pile on, and we go with them.
Jack Eichel ($8,000): GPP. Vegas runs its top line and PP1 through Eichel, about 19 minutes a night, and his line has a +5.5 edge against Boston. He should get about three shots, and big fields mostly pass on him. How a top-line center at this price goes so overlooked is a mystery.
Wingers
Martin Necas ($6,700): cash. Necas plays on MacKinnon's wing and stays with him on PP1, about 19 minutes. He should get two or three shots, and he gets you the Colorado top line for $2,800 less than his center.
Will Smith ($5,600): GPP. Smith skates on Macklin Celebrini's wing on the San Jose top line and PP1, about 18 and a half minutes. The Calgary kill ranks 22nd in expected goals allowed per 60, and Calgary plays its third game in four nights. He should get two or three shots, with a 20.5 ceiling.
Defensemen
Cale Makar ($7,500): cash. Makar plays about 24 minutes on the Colorado top pair and quarterbacks PP1. He should get two or three shots, and his floor is the best of any defenseman tonight. He and Devon Toews win 55.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts as a pair.
Shea Theodore ($4,400): GPP. Theodore plays about 22 minutes on the Vegas top pair with Brayden McNabb and runs PP2. That pair has a +8.8 edge over 1,374 minutes together, and he should come in low-owned.
Value Plays
Gabriel Landeskog (COL W, $3,500): Landeskog plays on the Colorado second line and PP2, about 15 minutes, and his line has the second best edge on the slate.
Yegor Sharangovich (CGY W, $3,100): Sharangovich plays on the Calgary second line and PP2, about 16 minutes, and that line has a +6.1 edge against San Jose. Calgary is on its third game in four nights, which is the risk, but a second-line winger in a 6.5 total should cost more than $3,100.
Props to Watch
Pavel Zacha over 1.5 shots on goal (-108): he plays about 19 minutes on the Boston top line. We have him at 55% to get two or more shots, and the price needs 52%. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Blackwood is expected, not confirmed. If Colorado turns to its backup, switch to Markstrom and drop the Detroit build.
- Knight, Gibson, Carter Hart, Yaroslav Askarov and Dustin Wolf are also expected, not confirmed. Detroit's crease is the least settled, so check it before you lock FLA PP1.
- Calgary plays its third game in four nights, and Devin Cooley is on injured reserve, so Wolf should get the net. Watch the Calgary morning skate before you play Sharangovich.
- Bowen Byram is day-to-day for Chicago with a return date of today. If he plays, Artyom Levshunov, Ian Cole and Wyatt Kaiser lose minutes.
- Logan O'Connor is day-to-day for Colorado. He plays on the fourth line, so he only matters for depth builds.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Blackwood, MacKinnon, Makar and Necas, then fill around COL PP1. In tournaments, run COL PP1 with Blackwood, use FLA PP1 as the second build and DET PP1 as the third, keep VGK PP1 for a low-owned build, and leave Boston PP1 to the field. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
What is a PP1 stack in NHL DFS?
PP1 is a team's top power play unit, usually four forwards and a defenseman who take most of the time with the extra skater. When they score, three or four of them often get points on the same goal, so you stack them to catch it. Tonight COL PP1 has the biggest big-night number on the slate at about 96 DK points.
How does a back-to-back change NHL DFS picks?
A team on the second night of a back-to-back often starts its backup goalie and can fade late, more so after travel. We downgrade those stacks a little and want a confirmed goalie before we play one. Nobody on tonight's main slate plays a back-to-back, but Calgary plays its third game in four nights.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.