Philadelphia creates less at 5v5 than 29 other teams, 30th in expected goals per 60, and its top line will spend most of the night against Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek. We build around the Minnesota top power play unit (MIN PP1) and pair it with Jesper Wallstedt, who is confirmed and has the best shutout chance of any starter. Andrei Vasilevskiy is our cash goalie. With eleven games to pick from, we also keep a low-owned Colorado build in the mix.
Last Night
MacKenzie Blackwood won and scored 13.7 DK points with 21 saves. COL PP1 scored 61.9 DK points, second of 8 PP1 units, and the only unit ahead of it was our Detroit third stack at 66.4. Both value plays missed: Gabriel Landeskog scored 5.0 at $3,500 and Yegor Sharangovich 3.0 at $3,100, and Pavel Zacha stayed under his shot prop with one shot. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 3-2, our primary stack has hit 3 of 5, value plays 3 of 10, blocks picks 0 of 4 and props 4-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:00 PM ET, when eight of the eleven games drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries, the line matchup edges and the blocks plays.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ WSH | 5.5 | Pick'em, -110 each | DAL 2.81, WSH 2.81 | DAL PP 1st vs WSH PK 21st in xG |
| WPG @ MTL | 5.5 | MTL -178 | MTL 3.20, WPG 2.56 | Suzuki out for MTL |
| DET @ TBL | 6.5 | TBL -275 | TBL 3.75, DET 2.51 | DET back-to-back with travel, third in four |
| UTA @ TOR | 6.5 | UTA -137 | UTA 3.55, TOR 3.22 | TOR 28th in 5v5 shot share |
| COL @ CBJ | 6.5 | COL -125 | COL 3.25, CBJ 3.07 | COL back-to-back with travel, third in four |
| STL @ NYR | 5.5 | NYR -118 | NYR 2.94, STL 2.84 | STL PP 32nd in xG |
| MIN @ PHI | 5.5 | MIN -184 | MIN 3.22, PHI 2.53 | PHI 30th in 5v5 xG |
| VGK @ PIT | 6.5 | PIT -115 | PIT 3.38, VGK 3.30 | VGK back-to-back with travel |
| EDM @ NJD | 6.5 | NJD -156 | NJD 3.36, EDM 2.87 | EDM third game in four nights |
| CAR @ NSH | 6.5 | CAR -194 | CAR 3.54, NSH 2.75 | CAR 1st in 5v5 shot share |
| ANA @ VAN | 6.5 | ANA -152 | ANA 3.66, VAN 3.18 | VAN PK 32nd in xG |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) | Expected | 70.1% | 2.51 | $8,500 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR) | Expected | 63.2% | 2.75 | $8,400 |
| Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) | Confirmed | 62.0% | 2.53 | $8,300 |
| Jacob Fowler (MTL) | Confirmed | 61.2% | 2.56 | $8,200 |
| Connor Hellebuyck (NJD) | Confirmed | 58.4% | 2.87 | $8,000 |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | Expected | 57.7% | 3.18 | $8,100 |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | Expected | 55.3% | 3.22 | $7,900 |
| Scott Wedgewood (COL) | Confirmed | 53.1% | 3.07 | $8,000 |
| Dylan Garand (NYR) | Confirmed | 51.7% | 2.84 | $7,800 |
| Arturs Silovs (PIT) | Confirmed | 51.2% | 3.30 | $7,900 |
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | Confirmed | 50.0% | 2.81 | $7,600 |
| Jake Oettinger (DAL) | Expected | 50.0% | 2.81 | $7,800 |
| Adin Hill (VGK) | Expected | 48.8% | 3.38 | $7,500 |
| Joel Hofer (STL) | Expected | 48.3% | 2.94 | $7,600 |
| Cam Talbot (CBJ) | Confirmed | 46.9% | 3.25 | $7,400 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) | Confirmed | 44.7% | 3.55 | $7,500 |
| Leevi Meriläinen (VAN) | Expected | 42.3% | 3.66 | $7,300 |
| Tristan Jarry (EDM) | Expected | 41.6% | 3.36 | $7,400 |
| Stuart Skinner (WPG) | Expected | 38.8% | 3.20 | $7,200 |
| Dan Vladar (PHI) | Confirmed | 38.0% | 3.22 | $7,100 |
| Juuse Saros (NSH) | Confirmed | 36.8% | 3.54 | $7,000 |
| John Gibson (DET) | Expected | 29.9% | 3.75 | $6,900 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki (MTL, C) | Out (upper body) | 9 | Josh Anderson, Jake Evans, Cole Caufield |
| Dylan Larkin (DET, C) | Injured Reserve (suspension) | 9 | Alex DeBrincat, Viktor Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond |
| Kirill Marchenko (TOR, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Dakota Joshua, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Bryan Rust (PIT, RW) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby, Tommy Novak |
| Zach Hyman (EDM, LW) | Injured Reserve (neck) | 8 | Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| John Tavares (TOR, C) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Dakota Joshua, Auston Matthews, William Nylander |
| Marshall Rifai (TOR, D) | Injured Reserve (lower body) | 8 | Jake McCabe, Chris Tanev, Darren Raddysh |
| Mike Matheson (MTL, D) | Out (lower body) | 7 | Alexandre Carrier, Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN F1 | Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | +14.2 | PHI F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 349 min |
| UTA F2 | Lawson Crouse, Logan Cooley, Vincent Trocheck | +12.1 | TOR F1 (37%) | Cooley and Crouse, 117 min |
| CAR F1 | William Carrier, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | +11.7 | NSH F1 (43%) | Full line, 152 min |
| Player | Pair | PP | Blocks | 3+ chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Weegar (UTA, $4,700) | D1 | PP2 | 2.1 | 32.9% |
| Jonas Brodin (MIN, $3,700) | D1 | none | 1.9 | 29.8% |
Anaheim gets the best special teams spot of the night: the Ducks power play draws a Vancouver kill that ranks 32nd in expected goals allowed per 60. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50, and we use it as a tiebreaker. The full lists are on our NHL team matchups, NHL injury report for DFS and NHL line matchups and edges.
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL, $8,500), cash
Vasilevskiy is expected to start, not yet confirmed. Tampa Bay has the best chance to win on the slate, and Detroit comes in on the second night of a back-to-back after travel, its third game in four nights. He should make 22 or 23 saves with an 8.1% shutout chance, and he lines up with our Tampa stack. If Tampa Bay turns to its backup, switch to Jacob Fowler, who is confirmed for Montreal.
Jesper Wallstedt (MIN, $8,300), GPP
Wallstedt is confirmed, and his 10.7% shutout chance is the best of any starter tonight. Philadelphia ranks 30th in 5v5 expected goals and 31st in 5v5 goals per 60, so a quiet night is on the table. He should make about 21 saves, which caps his floor, but a Minnesota win with a shutout lands right on top of our main stack. Every crease updates on today's NHL starting goalies.
Stacks to Target
MIN PP1: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes ($32,800 for the unit)
Minnesota is implied for 3.22 goals against Dan Vladar, who is confirmed. The Kaprizov line with Eriksson Ek (MIN1) wins 54.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice, and it gets the Philadelphia top line most of the night. The power play is a tougher ask: Minnesota ranks 6th in power play expected goals per 60, but the Flyers kill ranks 5th, so this stack has to win at even strength. Maxim Shabanov fills out the unit, and Jonas Brodin turns MIN1 into a line plus pair build. It can reach about 100 DK points on a big night, and we play it in cash and GPP.
TBL PP1: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point ($31,400 for the unit)
Tampa Bay has the most goals implied on the slate against John Gibson, who is expected to start, not yet confirmed. The Kucherov line (TBL1) also wins 54.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the Tampa power play, 12th in expected goals per 60, gets a Detroit kill that ranks 23rd. Detroit is on a back-to-back with travel, and tired legs in the third period favor the Tampa skaters. Brandon Hagel and Charle-Edouard D'Astous complete the unit, it also reaches about 100 DK points on a big night, and it fits next to Vasilevskiy. It is the chalk, so it is our second build.
COL PP1: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas ($32,500 for the unit, contrarian)
Colorado is implied for 3.25 goals against Cam Talbot, who is confirmed. Both the Colorado forwards and defense get a SMASH tag in our NHL Elo ratings, which means they rate well above the Columbus units they face. MacKinnon's line (COL1) wins 54.9% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and the Avalanche power play draws a Columbus kill that ranks 29th. Colorado plays the second night of a back-to-back after travel, its third game in four nights, so we downgrade it a little. It tops out around 87 DK points on a big night, and very few people will play it, so it is a GPP build only.
Lines and units for every team: NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks.
Value Stack
UTA F2: Logan Cooley, Vincent Trocheck, Lawson Crouse ($11,900 for the unit)
Utah's second line draws the Toronto top line most of the night, and Toronto ranks 28th in 5v5 shot share. Cooley also plays on PP1, so this cheap line still has a power play path to a big night.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: TBL PP1. Pivot: MIN PP1 ($32,800). Tampa's top unit is the most popular stack on the slate by a wide margin, and we still play it as a second build. Minnesota's unit has the same big-night number for $1,400 more, and far fewer people will play it.
Chalk goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy. Pivot: Pyotr Kochetkov ($8,400). We play Vasilevskiy in cash. Kochetkov is expected to start, not yet confirmed, has the second best win chance on the slate, comes in low-owned, and Nashville ranks 26th in 5v5 goals per 60.
Fades
Adam Fantilli ($5,100). He is one of the most popular centers on the slate because he runs the Columbus top line and PP1 at a fair price. The Columbus forwards get a TOUGH tag against Colorado, which means they rate well below the defense they face, and the Columbus power play ranks 20th in expected goals per 60, so we let the field have him.
Skaters
Centers
Nick Schmaltz ($5,700): cash. Schmaltz centers the Utah top line and plays PP1, about 18 minutes a night. Utah has the third most goals implied on the slate, the Utah forwards get a SMASH tag against Toronto, and his line wins 54.6% of the 5v5 shot attempts. At $5,700 he leaves room for the stack, and he should get two or three shots.
Sebastian Aho ($7,200): GPP. Carolina runs its top line and PP1 through Aho for about 20 minutes, and the Hurricanes rank 1st in 5v5 shot share. The Nashville kill ranks 10th in expected goals allowed per 60, so his ceiling comes at even strength, where his line wins 60.0% of the shot attempts. Big fields pass on him.
Wingers
Cutter Gauthier ($7,600): cash. Gauthier plays on the Anaheim second line and PP1, about 18 minutes, and he should get about four shots with a 35.5% chance at five or more. The Anaheim forwards have the best SMASH gap of the night against Vancouver, and the Vancouver kill is last in the league in expected goals allowed. Small fields will play him, and we go with them.
Jason Robertson ($7,400): GPP. Robertson skates on the Dallas second line with Roope Hintz but stays on PP1, about 19 minutes. Dallas ranks 1st in power play expected goals per 60, and the Washington kill ranks 21st. He should get about three shots with a 22.5 ceiling, and he comes in low-owned.
Defensemen
Mikhail Sergachev ($6,000): cash. Sergachev plays about 25 minutes on the Utah top pair and runs PP1. That pair has a +9.2 edge over 492 minutes together, he should get two or three shots, and his 21.6% chance at three blocks props up the floor. He costs $1,100 less than Zach Werenski.
Evan Bouchard ($7,800): GPP. Bouchard plays about 25 minutes on the Edmonton top pair and quarterbacks a power play that ranks 2nd in expected goals per 60. The Edmonton defense gets a SMASH tag against New Jersey, and he and Mattias Ekholm win 56.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts. Very few people will play him, which is a strange way to treat the guy running the second best power play on the slate.
Value Plays
Jonathan Lekkerimäki (VAN W, $3,100): he plays on the Vancouver second line and PP1, about 16 and a half minutes. A PP1 winger in a 6.5 total should not cost $3,100.
William Carrier (CAR W, $3,000): he skates on the Carolina top line with Aho and Svechnikov, about 14 and a half minutes. That line wins 60.0% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and it sits in the Line Edges tab.
Props to Watch
Luke Evangelista over 1.5 shots on goal (-138): he plays about 17 and a half minutes on the New Jersey top line and PP2. We have him at 63.1% to get two or more shots, and the price needs 58.0%. Check every line on our NHL odds and player props. A prop is a lean, so keep the stake small.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Before Lock
- Vasilevskiy is expected, not confirmed. If Tampa Bay turns to its backup, switch to Fowler.
- Kochetkov, Gibson, Dostal, Vejmelka, Oettinger, Hill, Hofer, Jarry, Skinner and Meriläinen are also expected, not confirmed. Check Carolina's crease before you play the Kochetkov pivot.
- Detroit, Colorado and Vegas all play the second night of a back-to-back after travel. Detroit, Colorado and Edmonton are on their third game in four nights.
- Evgeni Malkin is day-to-day for Pittsburgh. If he sits, Rakell, Crosby and Novak pick up his work.
- Zach Hyman has a return date of today for Edmonton. If he plays, McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins lose some of the extra work.
Final Thoughts
For cash, start with Vasilevskiy, Kaprizov, Boldy, Hughes and Gauthier, then fill around MIN PP1. In tournaments, run MIN PP1 with Wallstedt, use TBL PP1 as the second build and COL PP1 as the low-owned third, and leave Fantilli to the field. Every projection is on our NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
Why do you stack a forward line in NHL DFS?
The three forwards on a line are on the ice together for most of their even strength shifts, so one goal often pays two or three of them. Stacking a line catches that, and a good matchup pays the whole line at once. Tonight MIN1 gets the Philadelphia top line for most of its shifts, which is why it leads our build.
Should you pair your goalie with your skater stack?
Yes, when it is the same team, because a goalie win and a big night from his skaters tend to come together. Never use a goalie against your own stack, and keep it to one skater at most against your goalie. Tonight Wallstedt goes with MIN PP1 and Vasilevskiy with TBL PP1, and neither faces a stack we play.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.