Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett get the best line matchup on the board tonight, against a Chicago team that plays without Patrick Kane. We build around the Florida top power play unit (FLA PP1), which has the highest ceiling of any stack, and Jacob Markstrom in net. Los Angeles and Buffalo give us the next two stacks, and with four games to pick from, we are happy to eat the chalk.
Last Night
Andrei Vasilevskiy won with 19 saves for 12.3 DK points. MIN PP1 missed: it scored 59.3 DK points, 10th of 22 PP1 units. Both value plays missed (Jonathan Lekkerimaki scored 3.0 at $3,100, William Carrier 0.0 at $3,000), Jonas Brodin hit with three blocks while MacKenzie Weegar stopped at two, and Luke Evangelista cleared his shot prop with two shots. Since 10/29, our cash goalie is 4-2, our primary stack has hit 3 of 6, value plays 3 of 12, blocks picks 1 of 6 and props 5-4.
Slate Overview
Lock is 7:30 PM ET, when Ottawa at Buffalo and Chicago at Florida drop the puck. Switch tabs for the goalies, the injuries and the line matchup edges.
| Game | Total | Favorite | Implied goals | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT @ BUF | 6.5 | BUF -126 | BUF 3.39, OTT 3.18 | BUF PK 26th in xG |
| CHI @ FLA | 5.5 | FLA -250 | FLA 3.44, CHI 2.37 | FLA PP 5th vs CHI PK 14th in xG |
| SJS @ LAK | 6.5 | LAK -170 | LAK 3.42, SJS 2.81 | SJS PK 27th in xG |
| CGY @ SEA | 6.5 | SEA -130 | SEA 3.22, CGY 2.98 | SEA 32nd in 5v5 shot share |
| Goalie | Status | Win chance | Opp. goals | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom (FLA) | Expected | 68.3% | 2.37 | $8,500 |
| Darcy Kuemper (LAK) | Expected | 60.2% | 2.81 | $8,200 |
| Philipp Grubauer (SEA) | Expected | 54.0% | 2.98 | $8,000 |
| Colten Ellis (BUF) | Expected | 53.3% | 3.18 | $7,900 |
| Samuel Ersson (OTT) | Expected | 46.7% | 3.39 | $7,500 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | Expected | 46.0% | 3.22 | $7,400 |
| Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) | Expected | 39.8% | 3.42 | $7,200 |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | Expected | 31.7% | 3.44 | $6,900 |
| Player (team, pos) | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann (SEA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Jordan Eberle, Bobby McMann |
| Patrick Kane (CHI, RW) | Out | 7 | Connor Bedard, Anton Frondell |
| Mats Zuccarello (LAK, RW) | Injured Reserve | 7 | Artemi Panarin, Alex Laferriere |
| Adrian Kempe (LAK, RW) | Day-To-Day | 6 | Artemi Panarin, Alex Laferriere |
| Brad Marchand (FLA, LW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Brady Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart |
| Alexander Wennberg (SJS, C) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith |
| Igor Chernyshov (SJS, LW) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli |
| Bowen Byram (CHI, D) | Injured Reserve | 6 | Alex Vlasic, Ian Cole |
| Line | Players | Edge | Main opponent | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA F1 | Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett | +17.4 | CHI F1 (43% of 5v5 time) | Full line, 100 min |
| LAK F1 | Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere | +14.1 | SJS F1 (42%) | Full line, 102 min |
| OTT F1 | Tim Stuetzle, Dylan Cozens, Fabian Zetterlund | +10.0 | BUF F1 (42%) | Stuetzle and Zetterlund, 402 min |
Florida has the best power play spot of the night: its PP ranks 5th in expected goals and draws a Chicago kill ranked 14th. A line edge is the share of 5v5 expected goals a line should win against the lines it will see most, minus 50; we use it as a tiebreaker. The full numbers live on team matchups, injuries and line matchups.
Starting Goalies
Jacob Markstrom (FLA, $8,500), cash and GPP
Markstrom is expected to start, and the morning news says he gets the net against Chicago, but our status is not yet Confirmed. Chicago ranks 31st in 5v5 expected goals, and both its forwards and its defense carry a TOUGH tag in our Elo ratings, which means they rate well below the Florida units they face. He should see about 20 saves, so the win carries his score, and he has the best shutout chance on the slate at 9.3%. If Florida turns to its backup, switch to Darcy Kuemper. Track it on starting goalies.
Stacks to Target
FLA PP1: Brady Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk ($33,900 for the unit)
Florida gets the most goals implied on the slate, and Spencer Knight, expected but not confirmed for Chicago, has the lowest win chance of any starter. The Tkachuk brothers play the top line with Bennett, and that line wins 57% of the 5v5 shot attempts when it is on the ice. Brad Marchand is still out, so Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe hold the PP1 spots with both Tkachuks and Seth Jones. This unit scores about 97 DK points on a big night, the best of any stack. It is our cash core and our GPP base.
LAK PP1: Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere ($26,800 for the unit)
The Kings face Yaroslav Askarov, expected to start, and a San Jose kill ranked 27th in expected goals against. Panarin, Kempe and Laferriere win 54% of the 5v5 shot attempts as a line, and Quinton Byfield and Erik Gustafsson fill out the power play. Kempe is day-to-day, so check the morning skate before you lock him in. The unit scores about 95 DK points on a big night, and it will be the most popular stack on the slate.
BUF PP1: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn ($29,100 for the unit, third stack)
Buffalo is a home favorite against Samuel Ersson, who has the job while Linus Ullmark is on injured reserve. Thompson's top line wins 52% of the 5v5 shot attempts, and Dahlin plays about 24 minutes a night with PP1 time. Ottawa's kill ranks 11th, so the case for Buffalo rests on 5v5 play. It scores about 91 DK points on a big night, and it works best in GPP next to one of the two stacks above.
Line combos and stack salaries are on the lines page.
Chalk and Pivots
Chalk stack: LAK PP1. Pivot: OTT PP1 ($27,800). We still play the Kings, since a four-game slate does not leave much room to hide. For a second build, Tim Stuetzle's top line has a +10.0 edge against Buffalo's top line, and far fewer people will play it.
Chalk goalie: Philipp Grubauer. Pivot: Jacob Markstrom ($8,500). Grubauer is the most popular goalie, but his win chance sits below our 55% bar. Markstrom costs $500 more and is the bigger favorite by a wide margin.
Skaters
Centers
Sam Reinhart ($7,200): cash. He centers the second line but stays on PP1 with both Tkachuks, and he should play about 19 minutes. Marchand's absence puts more of the puck on Reinhart's stick, on the best power play spot of the night.
Tim Stuetzle ($7,000): GPP. Ottawa's top center plays over 21 minutes and runs PP1 against a Buffalo kill ranked 26th in expected goals against. He is low-owned at a price close to Reinhart's, and his line draws a good matchup against Buffalo's top line.
Wingers
Brady Tkachuk ($7,700): cash. Top line, PP1, and the most shots on the Florida roster: he should get three or four, with a 25% chance at five or more. With Marchand out, Florida runs more of its offense through him.
Will Smith ($6,100): GPP. He plays on Macklin Celebrini's wing and on PP1, and with Alexander Wennberg out, the Sharks lean harder on their top line. The Kings' kill ranks 23rd in expected goals against, and the field will leave Smith alone.
Defensemen
Seth Jones ($5,400): cash. Jones quarterbacks FLA PP1 and should play about 24 minutes. His pair with Niko Mikkola has a +13.6 edge, the best of any defense pair tonight.
Jake Sanderson ($6,600): GPP. The Senators lean on him for about 23 and a half minutes, plus PP1, and he adds blocks, with a 26.5% chance at three or more. He pairs with Stuetzle for a low-owned Ottawa build.
Value Plays
Aaron Ekblad (FLA D, $3,200): He plays on the top pair with Gustav Forsling and on PP2, and that pair has a +12.0 edge against Chicago. At this price he leaves room for the full Florida power play.
Chandler Stephenson (SEA W, $3,300): Seattle's second-line winger also skates on PP1, a rare power play spot at this salary. Calgary's kill ranks 17th in expected goals against, which is enough for a cheap PP1 piece.
Before Lock
- Every starter is still expected, not confirmed. If Florida turns to its backup, move to Darcy Kuemper.
- Adrian Kempe is day-to-day. If he sits, recheck the Kings' power play before you play LAK PP1.
- No team on the slate plays a back-to-back or a third game in four nights. Seattle comes in on four days of rest.
- The two late games start at 10:00 PM ET, so Kings, Sharks, Flames and Kraken news can still swap in after the early lock.
Final Thoughts
Our cash core is Jacob Markstrom, Brady Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Seth Jones and Artemi Panarin. In GPP we pair FLA PP1 or LAK PP1 with BUF PP1, then add Stuetzle or Will Smith where the field is light. The full board is on projections.
NHL DFS FAQ
When are NHL starting goalies confirmed?
Most teams name their starter after the morning skate, and the first goalie off the ice is usually the starter. Some starters stay unconfirmed until warmups, which is why tonight's goalie table still says Expected for all eight. Always have a switch plan, like Kuemper for Markstrom tonight.
What is the difference between a cash and a GPP NHL lineup?
A cash lineup only needs to beat about half the field, so it takes the safest minutes, the PP1 skaters and the biggest favorite in net. A GPP lineup has to beat almost everyone, so it stacks one unit and adds low-owned players like Stuetzle or Will Smith. On a four-game slate the two builds often share the same top stack.
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the BankrollSZN NHL tools: today's NHL DFS projections, the NHL lineup optimizer, NHL line combinations and PP1 stacks, today's NHL starting goalies, and NHL odds and player props.