All three past winners at El Cardonal are back this week, and only Ben Griffin, last year's 29-under champion, costs more than $7,500. The course rewards approach play and putting, and Ryan Gerard brings both to my cash anchor spot at $10,200, while Jordan L. Smith at +3000 is my pick to win. Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,900 is the value I like most, the wind evens out across the Thursday and Friday draw, and Aldrich Potgieter and Adam Schenk are listed out. The Top Plays tab just below sorts every role.
Week Overview
Switch tabs for our top plays and the injury flags in the field.
| Player | Role | Salary | FanDuel win | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gerard | Cash anchor | $10,200 | +1500 | 3rd at the Tour Championship, T4 in his last start |
| Ben Kohles | Cash core | $8,500 | +3500 | Eight straight cuts, best season total here |
| Jordan L. Smith | Cash core | $8,300 | +3000 | My pick to win, eight for eight on cuts |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | Cash value | $7,900 | +3500 | Irons and putter both fit, priced like a mid-tier player |
| Beau Hossler | Cash value | $7,500 | +6000 | Three weekends in three trips here |
| Chad Ramey | Cash or GPP | $6,800 | +12500 | T2 here last year, four straight weekends |
| Ben Griffin | GPP | $10,000 | +1500 | Defending champion, T4 last week |
| Benjamin James | GPP | $9,900 | +1500 | Runner-up at the Biltmore, plus 1.53 over eight |
| Jackson Suber | GPP leverage | $9,200 | +3000 | T11 here, third-best approach number in the field |
| Seamus Power | GPP | $8,100 | +4500 | Runner-up in Bermuda, best putter in his range |
| Austin Eckroat | GPP leverage | $7,500 | +6000 | Won here in 2024 |
| Garrick Higgo | GPP dart | $7,100 | +8000 | T6 and T4 in two trips here |
| Player | Salary | Flag | DFS read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrich Potgieter | $6,400 | Listed out on DraftKings | Do not roster |
| Adam Schenk | $6,000 | Listed out on DraftKings, withdrew in August | Do not roster |
| Sami Välimäki | $7,700 | 111 days off, 12 events missed | T2 here last year, GPP only |
| Preston Stout, Nicholas Lindheim | $7,000 and $6,000 | 104 days off, 11 events missed | Fade both |
| Matt Kuchar, Tyler Collet | $6,600 and $6,000 | 90 days off, 9 events missed | Kuchar is a course history dart, Collet a fade |
Not one golfer in this field has pulled out of two events since early May. Billy Horschel pulled out in Mexico last week, Max Greyserman left Bermuda early, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Vince Whaley withdrew at the Bank of Utah, and Rasmus Højgaard did the same at the Biltmore. Stephan Jaeger, Jimmy Stanger, Seamus Power, Patrick Rodgers, Patton Kizzire, Pierceson Coody and Aaron Wise each have one withdrawal between May and August.
The Course
El Cardonal at Diamante plays 7,452 yards at par 72, and its fairways average about 34 yards across. That is a lot of room. A long hitter gets something out of the yardage, but a loose drive still finds grass most of the time, so the driver does less sorting here than the card suggests.
This event has been a birdie race every year. Erik Van Rooyen won at 27 under in 2023, Austin Eckroat at 24 under in 2024 and Ben Griffin at 29 under last year, and all three are in this field. Chad Ramey and Sami Välimäki tied for 2nd last year at 27 under, so a winning number in the mid-20s is the baseline.
There's no shot-level data from El Cardonal. I checked how each player's season numbers going in matched his finish here in each of the three years, and approach play lined up best, with putting a close second. Driving and chipping trailed well behind. My two strokes gained priorities this week are approach and putting, and when two golfers look even, I take the one who putts.
Weather to Watch
Round 1 | Sunny, 76 to 81F | Wind: 8 to 12 mph, gusts 27
Thursday starts near 8 mph and climbs past 11 mph after noon. The early groups get the easier half of the day.
Round 2 | Mostly sunny, 76 to 82F | Wind: 8 to 14 mph, gusts 31
Friday has the same shape with a bit more wind. The groups going off around noon face the strongest sustained wind of the first two days, near 14 mph.
Round 3 | Clouds building, 77 to 82F | Wind: 9 to 12 mph, gusts 29
Saturday stays breezy all day, and the rain chance never gets above 12%.
Round 4 | Rain chance up to 45%, 77 to 83F | Wind: 1 to 8 mph, gusts 21
Sunday morning is close to still. Showers become possible after noon, and they would only soften greens that already give up plenty of birdies.
Each morning is about 4 mph calmer than the afternoon, and that is why the draw washes out. Golfers teeing off early Thursday and late Friday average about 21.3 mph across their two windows, and the other side of the draw averages 21.0. That gap is worth a few hundredths of a stroke across the first two rounds. I am not changing a single build for the draw this week.
Course History
1. Garrick Higgo ($7,100; best finishes: T4, T6)
Higgo has finished T6 and T4 in his two trips here, the second one at 26 under last year. The rest of his 2026 is hard to look at. He made three of his last eight cuts and is minus 1.24 a round over his last four, and the T29 in Mexico last week was his best finish in his last six starts. I'd use him as a course bet in GPPs and leave it there.
2. Matt Kuchar ($6,600; best finishes: T2, T11)
Kuchar tied for 2nd here in 2023, tied for 30th in 2024 and tied for 11th last year at 22 under. He has not played since the Wyndham in August, and nine missed events leave the floor as a guess. At $6,600 the course record still earns him a GPP look.
3. Patrick Rodgers ($7,000; best finishes: T6, T24)
Rodgers posted a T6 here last year at 25 under after a T24 in 2024. He also withdrew from the Rocket Classic in July and missed the cut in Mexico last week, and he is minus 1.33 a round over his last eight starts. The course fits him better than his form does.
4. Sami Välimäki ($7,700; best finish: T2 in 2025)
He shared 2nd here last year in his only trip, two shots behind Griffin. Välimäki has not played since he missed the cut at The Open in July, and he has missed 12 events since. That puts him in the Injuries tab and keeps him far from cash.
The Board
Elite ($9,500+)
Six golfers cost $9,500 or more, and the board barely separates the top four: Gerard, Griffin and Benjamin James all sit at +1500, with Jackson Koivun at +1600. Nobody up here should draw a crowd, so I am picking on floor in cash and on ceiling everywhere else.
Ryan Gerard ($10,200 | +1500 | Cash) He has not played since the Baycurrent Classic on October 8, and that rest bothers me less than it will bother other people. Gerard tied for 4th there after finishing 3rd at the Tour Championship. His 0.81 season total comes from the two places this course pays, 0.33 a round on approach and 0.36 putting. He has made seven of his last eight cuts. He went MC and T14 in two visits here, so the course record adds nothing, but the form makes him my cash anchor.
Ben Griffin ($10,000 | +1500 | GPP) The defending champion shot 29 under here last year, and the field will remember that. People may forget how thin his summer was. He missed the cut at the Rocket Classic and the Wyndham, finished T42 and T44 in the playoffs, then took two months off before a T4 in Mexico last week. Over his last eight starts he is minus 0.28 a round, and his approach number this season is minus 0.02. GPPs are where I want him, since a past winner on a birdie course can run away, but not at $10,000 in cash.
Benjamin James ($9,900 | +1500 | GPP) Plus 1.53 strokes a round on the field over his last eight starts. James finished 3rd at the Wyndham, then 2nd at the Biltmore, then T5 in Utah. Then he missed the cut in Bermuda before a T16 in Mexico. Tour strokes gained splits don't exist for him yet, so I can't tell you whether that run came from the irons or the putter. Gerard has the same odds for $300 more and a cleaner floor, so James is my tournament version of that bet.
High ($8,000-$9,400)
Fourteen golfers sit in this range, and most of my cash floor comes from here. The field will spread out, which leaves room to be choosy.
Ben Kohles ($8,500 | +3500 | Cash) I know, a T63 here last year looks bad. It is also a big part of why he costs $8,500. Kohles has made the cut in each of his last eight starts, the last six between T13 and T29. His 1.32 season total is the best in this field, and so is his 0.83 a round on approach. The sample is smaller than most, 47 measured rounds, but nothing since July says the number is fake.
Jordan L. Smith ($8,300 | +3000 | Cash) Smith is eight for eight on made cuts, with a T4 at the Baycurrent and a T16 in Mexico last week. Smith is plus 1.47 a round over his last four. This season he picks up 0.54 off the tee and 0.30 on approach, and putting is the soft spot at minus 0.26. He's a cash core piece, and I'm backing him to win outright too.
Jackson Suber ($9,200 | +3000 | GPP) You won't get excited about T34, T41 and T40. Suber has still made seven of his last eight cuts and tied for 11th here last year, and his 0.55 on approach is the third-best number in the field. The missing piece is a top-10, and he has none in his last eight starts. The putter costs him 0.27 a round. He carries the same odds as Smith for $900 more, so he stays out of cash and goes into tournaments, where few people will click him.
Seamus Power ($8,100 | +4500 | GPP) Power withdrew from an event in early July, and that keeps him off my cash list. He has played well since. T7 at the Biltmore, T21 in Utah, 2nd in Bermuda two weeks ago, and plus 1.31 a round over his last four. Nobody in this salary range has a better putting number than his 0.52. He made five of his last eight cuts, which is the reason the floor is shaky and the reason I'd take that swing in GPPs.
Mid ($7,000-$7,900)
The field will drift toward the course winners in this range, Eckroat and Van Rooyen. The better floor sits a few spots over.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900 | +3500 | Cash) FanDuel prices him like a contender. That +3500 matches Keith Mitchell at $9,600 and Kohles at $8,500, and Bezuidenhout costs less than both. His season numbers fit this course as well as anyone's: 0.44 a round on approach, 0.40 putting and a 0.76 total, third-best in the field. He has made seven of his last eight cuts, with a T17 at the Baycurrent and a T19 in Mexico last week. No one on this slate is a better value, and he is in every cash build I make.
Beau Hossler ($7,500 | +6000 | Cash) Hossler has played four rounds every time he has come here, T15 in 2023, T20 in 2024 and T17 last year. Hossler gains 0.52 a round putting this season and has made seven of his last eight cuts. The recent results are dull, T41, T53 and T48 in his last three weekends, and he is minus 0.19 a round over his last four. For cash that's fine, since all I need from him is a Saturday tee time.
Austin Eckroat ($7,500 | +6000 | GPP) A 2024 win here at 24 under will pull people toward Eckroat. His last two starts went T57 in Bermuda and T54 in Mexico, and he has no top-10 in his last eight. He is plus 0.35 a round over his last four and has made seven of his last eight cuts, so the floor exists. In GPPs I'm betting on the course memory and little else.
Zachary Bauchou ($7,800 | +4000 | GPP) The missed cut in Mexico last week is why he is easy to skip. Before it, Bauchou went T24, T13 and T9, and he is plus 0.86 a round over his last eight with a 0.53 season total. His only trip here ended T60 in 2024. I like him as a GPP pivot off Bezuidenhout, $100 cheaper with a little more upside.
Cheap (under $7,000)
This range is thin. I am taking three.
Chad Ramey ($6,800 | +12500 | Cash) Last year Ramey shot 27 under here and tied for 2nd. He has made six of his last eight cuts, including four straight weekends from the Biltmore to Mexico, and he gains 0.39 a round putting. His approach play is the weak part, minus 0.36. At $6,800 he pays for Gerard, and his course record gives him a GPP case too.
Zecheng Dou ($6,800 | +10000 | GPP) I didn't expect this when I sorted the board. Dou's 0.38 season total beats plenty of golfers priced $1,000 above him, and 0.29 of it comes on approach. His best recent week was a tie for 7th at the Biltmore, and he has made six of his last eight cuts, with T34 and T40 in his last two starts. He missed the cut in his only trip here, in 2023. GPP only.
Justin Lower ($6,800 | +10000 | GPP) The course record is the whole case for Lower, who tied for 2nd here in 2024 and has never missed a cut here in three tries. His season total, minus 0.43, is why he costs $6,800. He is plus 0.55 a round over his last four even with a missed cut in Bermuda in that stretch. He is a tournament dart with a real course record behind him.
Bets
To Win
Jordan L. Smith (+3000) is my pick to win. He hasn't missed a cut in his last eight starts, posted a T4 at the Baycurrent and sits at plus 1.47 a round over his last four, yet five golfers carry shorter odds. At +3000 I want a piece.
Ryan Gerard (+1500) has the best mix of approach and putting among the four favorites, and his last two starts were a 3rd and a T4.
Ben Kohles (+3500) leads the field in season strokes gained and has played eight straight weekends. His best finish in his last six starts is T13, which explains the price and leaves room for growth.
Long Shots
Garrick Higgo (+8000) finished T6 and T4 in his two trips here. His form says no, and that is why the number is this long.
Justin Lower (+10000) tied for 2nd here in 2024 and has never missed the cut at El Cardonal.
Chad Ramey (+12500) tied for 2nd here last year and putts well enough to get back there. I'm treating all three as small tickets.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Gerard at the top, Kohles and Smith from the High range and Bezuidenhout in the middle. The last two spots come from the cash value rows in the Top Plays tab, with Hossler and Ramey the names I lean on. None of them has missed more than two cuts in his last eight starts, and each gains strokes on approach, with the putter or both, which is what El Cardonal asks for.
Nobody on this board should draw a big crowd, so in GPPs I'm hunting for odd combinations. I am getting different with Griffin and James up top, Suber and Power in the High range, and the course horses below: Eckroat, Higgo and Lower. Kuchar and Välimäki are the long layoff swings, and I keep both small.
Before lock, watch the Thursday afternoon wind. If gusts there climb past 30 mph while Friday afternoon holds to its forecast, the Thursday morning side of the draw picks up a real edge, and I'd shift some GPP builds toward those early starters.
Tools used for this week
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's PGA DFS projections, PGA strokes gained by category, PGA course history, tee time weather by wave, and the free PGA lineup optimizer.