PGA DFS Projections

PGA DFS projections for this week's event

Projected DraftKings points for the full field, rebuilt when the field and tee times are set.

How the golf projections are built

Strokes gained is the base. Each player's recent form is broken into off the tee, approach, around the green and putting, weighted by which of those the course actually rewards. A second-shot course pushes approach weight up; a short, open track shifts it toward putting and scrambling.

Course history is included but held loosely. Small sample sizes are the standing trap in golf modeling, and four prior rounds at a venue is not evidence of anything on its own, so history nudges a projection rather than driving it.

Make-cut probability runs alongside the point projection, because in golf the two answer different questions. A high-variance player can carry a strong ceiling and a poor cut probability at the same time, which is exactly the profile you want in a large-field tournament and exactly the profile to avoid in cash.

Reading the board for GPP versus cash

Cash lineups want cut probability, since a missed cut is a zero that no ceiling can recover. Tournament lineups want ceiling and are willing to accept cut risk to get it. Sorting by projected points alone blends the two and will quietly build you a cash lineup when you wanted a tournament one.

Frequently asked questions