PGA Tournament Weather

PGA tournament weather by tee time wave

Wind and conditions broken out by wave, so you can see which half of the draw is scheduled into the better weather before lineups lock.

The draw is the largest edge in golf DFS

Golfers play in two waves on Thursday and Friday, and those waves frequently face genuinely different golf courses. A morning group in calm air and a afternoon group in twenty miles per hour of wind are playing tests that can differ by multiple strokes, and the leaderboard after two rounds reflects that as much as it reflects who played well.

Wind matters more than any other weather factor. Rain mostly softens greens, which makes scoring easier and reduces the spread between players. Wind does the opposite: it widens the field, punishes anything offline, and makes the same shot produce very different results depending on when it was hit.

The advantage is knowable in advance, which is what makes it exploitable. Tee times are published, forecasts are available, and the market does not always fully price the split, particularly on tournaments with less coverage.

Building around a wave

In tournaments the standard approach is to concentrate exposure in the favoured wave, since you need golfers who are actually near the lead and a bad draw makes that much harder regardless of ability.

Two cautions. Forecasts move, and a wind prediction three days out is not reliable, so the closer to lock you assess it the better. And a strongly favoured wave becomes popular, which means the leverage is smaller than the raw advantage suggests once ownership is accounted for.

Frequently asked questions