Austin Smotherman has won two of his last three starts, and FanDuel still has eight golfers ahead of him at +3500. The tour has never played a full event at Barton Creek's Fazio Canyons course, so this week is about form, approach play and putting, and Ben Kohles at $9,200 is my cash anchor with Smotherman my pick to win. The value I keep landing on is Christiaan Bezuidenhout at $7,900, the wind stays light enough on Thursday and Friday that the draw barely matters, and Benjamin James, Michael Kim, Beau Hossler and Tom Hoge are out of the field. Every role sits in the Top Plays tab below.
Week Overview
Switch tabs for our top plays and the injury flags in the field.
| Player | Role | Salary | FanDuel win | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kohles | Cash anchor | $9,200 | +3500 | Eight for eight on cuts, best approach number in the field |
| Jordan L. Smith | Cash core | $9,500 | +2500 | Eight for eight on cuts, T8 last week |
| Chris Kirk | Cash core | $9,400 | +3000 | Eight straight weekends, 0.62 on approach |
| Doug Ghim | Cash or GPP | $9,800 | +1600 | Second-best season total, T6 in Mexico |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | Cash value | $7,900 | +4500 | Approach and putter both fit, priced in the mid range |
| Trace Crowe | Cash value | $7,700 | +7000 | Seven of his last eight cuts, T3 in Utah |
| Chad Ramey | Cash value | $6,900 | +10000 | Six of his last eight cuts, putter carries him |
| Jackson Koivun | GPP | $10,400 | +1300 | The favorite, eight for eight on cuts |
| Blades Brown | GPP | $9,900 | +2200 | Won last week |
| Austin Smotherman | GPP | $9,100 | +3500 | My pick to win, two wins in his last three starts |
| Seamus Power | GPP leverage | $8,900 | +4000 | Runner-up in Bermuda, T8 last week |
| Kensei Hirata | GPP dart | $6,500 | +10000 | 4th last week |
| Player | Salary | Flag | DFS read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin James, Michael Kim | $10,300 and $9,700 | Listed out on DraftKings | Do not roster |
| Beau Hossler, Tom Hoge | $8,000 and $6,600 | Listed out on DraftKings | Do not roster |
| Daniel Berger | $7,500 | 118 days off, 13 events missed | GPP only, and small |
| Sam Stevens | $7,600 | 90 days off, 9 events missed | Fade |
| Thomas Rosenmueller, Rikuya Hoshino | $6,800 and $6,100 | 118 days off, 13 events missed | Fade both |
| Adrien Saddier | $6,400 | 97 days off, 10 events missed | Fade |
No golfer here has pulled out twice since May. The fall withdrawals belong to Billy Horschel in Mexico, Max Greyserman in Bermuda, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Vince Whaley in Utah and Rasmus Højgaard at the Biltmore. Go back to the summer and you add one apiece for Stephan Jaeger, Seamus Power, Jimmy Stanger, Rikuya Hoshino, Patton Kizzire, Patrick Rodgers, Pierceson Coody, Adam Schenk and Aaron Wise, from late May through early August.
The Course
The Fazio Canyons course at Omni Barton Creek is new to this tour. It is a Hill Country parkland layout in west Austin, and the fairways run about 34 yards wide. That leaves a lot of room off the tee, so I don't expect the driver to separate this field much. I don't have a confirmed par or yardage for the tournament setup yet, so I am not going to guess a winning score.
No one in this field has a single competitive round here. So I am setting course history aside and leaning on the skills that travel to any parkland course. When a venue has no data, my default is the tour-wide pattern, where approach play predicts finishes best and putting comes a close second. Approach and putting are the two strokes gained categories I care about this week, and if I'm stuck between two golfers, the better iron player gets the spot.
Weather to Watch
Round 1 | Dry, 57 to 73F | Wind: 5 to 7 mph, gusts 16
Thursday morning is cool and still. The afternoon warms up and adds a mile or two of wind, nothing a tour player will notice much.
Round 2 | Dry, 62 to 76F | Wind: 2 to 6 mph, gusts 7
Friday morning is close to dead calm, around 2 mph. The best scoring window of the week is early Friday.
Round 3 | Rain chance up to 28%, 58 to 62F | Wind: 6 to 12 mph, gusts 27
Saturday is the first day with real wind, and the late afternoon gets the worst of it, near 12 mph with gusts past 25.
Round 4 | Rain chance up to 48%, 53 to 61F | Wind: 6 to 10 mph, gusts 20
Sunday turns cooler and damp. Soft greens would help the field go at pins, which helps the iron players I am targeting.
Golfers who tee off late Thursday and early Friday get about 8.5 mph of wind across their two windows. The other side of the draw gets about 10.7. That gap is worth maybe a tenth or two of a stroke across 36 holes, which makes it a tie-breaker and not a reason to rebuild anything. If two golfers look even in a GPP, I lean toward the Thursday afternoon starter.
Course History
There is no course history to rank this week. Barton Creek's Fazio Canyons course has never hosted this tour, so the numbered list I usually build here is empty. Recent form takes its place. Smotherman won in Utah and Bermuda, Blades Brown won last week, and Kensei Hirata finished 4th behind him. The Board below leans on that form and on season approach and putting numbers.
The Board
Elite ($9,500+)
Five golfers cost $9,500 or more now that Benjamin James is out. FanDuel's prices spread them out, from Jackson Koivun at +1300 down to Jordan L. Smith at +2500, and the field will pile into the top two. Ghim and Koivun are this week's chalk, with Brown and Smith a step behind.
Jackson Koivun ($10,400 | +1300 | GPP) He is the betting favorite, and I still don't want him in cash at this price. Koivun has made eight of eight cuts and beaten the field by 1.48 strokes a round over his last eight. The finishes are less loud: T5 at the Biltmore, T65 in Utah and T21 last week. There's no tour strokes gained split for him yet, so his game can't be broken into irons and putter. At $10,400, I want that ceiling in GPPs.
Doug Ghim ($9,800 | +1600 | Cash) Ghim's 1.21 season total is second in this field, behind only Kohles, and he is plus 2.05 a round over his last four. That run includes a 2nd in Utah and a T6 in Mexico. The catch is the shape of it, 0.61 off the tee and only 0.21 on approach, which is the wrong order for this week. He has made six of his last eight cuts. He should be the most popular golfer on the slate, which is fine in cash and a reason to go lighter on him in GPPs.
Blades Brown ($9,900 | +2200 | GPP) Brown won the World Wide Technology Championship last week after a T19 in Mexico, and he is plus 1.44 a round over his last eight with seven made cuts in that stretch. Like Koivun, he doesn't have tour strokes gained splits yet. The field will see the trophy and click, so I want him in tournaments only, where a second straight week of form pays.
Jordan L. Smith ($9,500 | +2500 | Cash) I keep coming back to Smith because he keeps showing up on the weekend. He has made eight of eight cuts with a T4 at the Baycurrent, T16 in Mexico and T8 last week. Plus 1.75 a round over his last four. His season numbers are 0.56 off the tee and 0.30 on approach, and he gives back 0.21 on the greens. That is a cash core player who can also win.
High ($8,000-$9,400)
My cash builds start in this range. Kohles, Smotherman, Zachary Bauchou and Johnny Keefer all sit at +3500 with $600 between them, and the field will split across them.
Ben Kohles ($9,200 | +3500 | Cash) He has one top-10 in his last eight starts, and that is why he is not priced like an anchor. Kohles has made all eight of those cuts, the last five between T13 and T25. His 0.77 a round on approach is the best number in this field, and his 1.30 season total tops the board too. Approach is the first thing I want this week, so he is my cash anchor.
Chris Kirk ($9,400 | +3000 | Cash) Kirk's last four starts went T10, T21, T6 and T12. Eight for eight on cuts. He gains 0.62 a round on approach and loses 0.32 on the greens, so he will hit greens and miss a few putts, and on a course with no history I'll take that trade. He goes next to Kohles in cash.
Austin Smotherman ($9,100 | +3500 | GPP) Two wins in his last three starts and he is not even the most expensive player in his range. Smotherman won in Utah, then won again in Bermuda, and he has not teed it up since. Over his last four he is plus 2.11 a round, with 0.67 on approach this season. Over his last eight he is minus 0.08, because a T67 at the Wyndham and a missed cut at the Rocket Classic sit in there too. He has made six of his last eight cuts, which keeps him out of cash. In GPPs he is my favorite play on the board.
Seamus Power ($8,900 | +4000 | GPP) A July withdrawal keeps Power out of my cash builds. His fall has been excellent: T7 at the Biltmore, 2nd in Bermuda and T8 last week. Plus 2.38 a round over his last four is the best number in the field, and his 0.55 putting is the best in his price range. He has made six of his last eight cuts, which makes him a tournament play for me.
Mid ($7,000-$7,900)
Most of the field's value hunting lands here, and the FanDuel prices are the best guide. Bezuidenhout, Jackson Suber and Sudarshan Yellamaraju all sit at +4500, and Bezuidenhout has the season numbers to separate himself.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900 | +4500 | Cash) A missed cut last week will push some people off him, and I think they are wrong to let it. His 0.74 season total is third in the field, built on 0.43 on approach and 0.38 putting, the exact pair this course asks for. He is plus 0.68 a round over his last eight with six made cuts and a T19 in Mexico. Suber matches his odds for $400 less, and Bezuidenhout is the better player. He is locked into my cash builds.
Trace Crowe ($7,700 | +7000 | Cash) Crowe has made seven of his last eight cuts, including a T3 in Utah and a T11 in Mexico. Plus 1.53 a round over his last four. His season numbers are modest, 0.30 total with 0.33 on approach, but approach is where he gains, and his floor is better than his price says. He works as the second cash value.
Jackson Suber ($7,500 | +4500 | GPP) Suber gains 0.54 a round on approach, the seventh-best number in this field, and costs $7,500. His putter takes 0.34 back, and he went home early last week. Six of his last eight cuts. In GPPs I'd play him as the cheaper approach bet next to Bezuidenhout.
Zac Blair ($7,200 | +10000 | GPP) At +10000, the board has Blair priced like a punt. His season total is 0.58, with 0.60 on approach and 0.21 putting, and only the driver holds him back at minus 0.42. That driver matters less on wide fairways. He has made six of his last eight cuts, with a T25 last week. Few people will play him at $7,200, and the profile fits this course well.
Cheap (under $7,000)
The cheap range is thin again. I am using it to pay for Kohles and Kirk, not to find a winner.
Chad Ramey ($6,900 | +10000 | Cash) Six of his last eight cuts, including four straight weekends from Utah through last week. Ramey gains 0.36 a round putting and loses 0.28 on approach, so the putter is the whole floor. At $6,900 that is enough for a cash spot.
Kensei Hirata ($6,500 | +10000 | GPP) He finished 4th last week and T11 in Mexico before that. Plus 1.23 a round over his last four. Before that run, he missed two straight cuts, and he has made only four of his last eight. GPP only, with a real ceiling for the price.
Jesper Svensson ($6,900 | +6500 | GPP) Nobody under $7,000 has shorter odds, and his 0.65 off the tee is most of the reason. Approach is the problem at minus 0.43, which works against him here. He has made five of his last eight cuts, with a T25, a T29 and a T33 in his last three starts. He is a GPP pivot for players who want a driver over an iron player.
Building for FanDuel's Drop Score
FanDuel changed its golf game this week. A lineup now takes seven golfers under the same $60,000 cap, salaries start at $5,000, and the lowest of the seven scores gets thrown out. In practice the seventh golfer is a free swing. When he misses the cut, his two rounds are usually the score that gets dropped, and the other six carry the lineup.
That changes who belongs at the bottom of a build. On DraftKings a cheap golfer has to make the weekend to earn his spot. On FanDuel I want the cheap golfer who can finish in the top 10 or go home Friday, because only the good half of that outcome counts. Jesper Svensson fits that shape: he gains 0.65 a round off the tee and loses 0.43 on approach, so his weeks swing hard both ways. Kensei Hirata is another: 4th last week, but two missed cuts in his last five starts. For cash, keep the six steady golfers you would play anyway and treat the seventh as a bonus. For GPPs I'd use one or two of these volatile cheap golfers and spend the savings at the top. Our PGA lineup optimizer now has a FanDuel drop-score setting under Advanced Settings that builds this way.
Bets
To Win
Austin Smotherman (+3500) is my pick to win, and I feel uncomfortably good about it. He has won twice in his last three starts, gains 0.67 a round on approach and still has eight golfers priced ahead of him.
Jordan L. Smith (+2500) has made eight of eight cuts and is plus 1.75 a round over his last four. The tee-to-green game travels to a new course better than most.
Seamus Power (+4000) has been in the top 10 in two of his last three starts and has the best recent form in the field.
Long Shots
Zac Blair (+10000) has the approach and putting mix this course should reward, and only his driving keeps the price this long.
Emiliano Grillo (+6500) gains 0.29 a round on approach, made six of his last eight cuts and posted a T21 last week. This price needs his putter to wake up.
Kensei Hirata (+10000) finished 4th last week. One more week of that form and this number is too long. All three are small bets.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Final Thoughts
Kohles and Kirk anchor my cash builds, with Smith right next to them. Bezuidenhout, Crowe and Ramey are the cheaper names that pay for them. Kohles, Smith and Kirk have made every cut in their last eight starts, and Bezuidenhout, Crowe and Ramey have missed two or fewer. Ghim is the swap if you want more at the top.
Ghim and Koivun will be the most popular golfers on this board, so my GPP leverage starts with being lighter on both. My GPP pivots are Smotherman and Power at $8,900 and up, Koivun and Brown at the top, and Blair, Suber and Hirata further down. With no course history, the field has less to anchor on than usual, and I'd lean on approach play when in doubt.
One thing to check before lock: the Thursday afternoon gusts. If they climb past 20 mph while Friday morning stays calm, the late and early side gains a little more, and I'd shift a few GPP lineups toward it.
Tools used for this week
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's PGA DFS projections, PGA strokes gained by category, PGA course history, tee time weather by wave, and the free PGA lineup optimizer.