Thirteen games, and the week gets decided at running back. Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800) and Kenneth Walker III ($7,400) are the two backs we want in every cash build, and fitting both means paying down at quarterback, defense and tight end on DraftKings. Two things moved since Wednesday. Jayden Daniels is out, which hands Washington to Marcus Mariota, and Aaron Jones picked up a knee designation, which pulls the best-priced back on the board out of cash until Sunday. Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray no longer carry designations and each holds his team's passing line, so we're treating both as the Week 3 starters. Wednesday's Matchups piece covers every game in depth.
We put a player in cash when we think he beats his price by the widest margin, with a floor we trust and enough upside to matter. Ownership doesn't come into it there. In GPP, it's most of the argument. Every position runs from most to least expensive, and the rankings table at the end splits by site.
High Impact Injuries
| Player | Status | Impact (1-10) | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels, WAS QB | Out | 10 | Marcus Mariota ($4,500), who threw 16 of Washington's 33 Week 2 passes |
| Nico Collins, HOU WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Dalton Schultz (14 Week 2 targets, when Collins logged no stats), Xavier Hutchinson ($4,000) |
| Zay Flowers, BAL WR | Questionable (hamstring) | 8 | Rashod Bateman (nine Week 2 targets), Mark Andrews (24.2% share) |
| Mike Evans, SF WR | Questionable (hip) | 8 | Deebo Samuel Sr. (25.9% share), Christian McCaffrey (22.1%) |
| Aaron Jones, MIN RB | Questionable (knee) | 8 | Demond Claiborne ($4,400). No other Minnesota back projects for more than 1.2 carries |
| Jalen Coker, CAR WR | Questionable (ankle) | 8 | Tetairoa McMillan (24.9% share, 10 Week 2 targets) |
| Tony Pollard, TEN RB | Questionable (ankle) | 7 | Tyjae Spears ($4,900), who is also questionable (ankle) |
| Jadarian Price, SEA RB | Questionable (chest) | 7 | Emanuel Wilson ($4,900) |
| Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR | Questionable (finger) | 7 | Garrett Wilson (30.6% share), Isaiah Williams ($3,300) |
| DJ Moore, BUF WR | Questionable (shoulder) | 6 | Khalil Shakir (22.0% share) |
Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS
CASH
QUARTERBACK
Tiers come off the DraftKings salary spread: pay up $6,700 and above, mid tier $5,300 to $6,600, cheap under $5,300.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK, $8,300 FD) – the pay-up tier's one buy. He threw four touchdowns on 26 of 31 passing for 279 yards in Week 2, gets 33.7 projected attempts, and holds the highest passing yardage line on the slate, in a 51.5 game total against Baltimore that tops the week. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen cost $800 and $1,300 more and don't clear their own tier by as much.
Tyler Shough ($5,400 DK, $7,500 FD) – mid tier. He's our DraftKings pick at the position. Nobody projects for more attempts than Shough and C.J. Stroud at 37.9 each, and Shough adds 5.3 carries after running nine times with a touchdown in Week 2. He's 62 of 90 for 662 yards through two games. Nothing in his tier beats its price by as much, and his bad day still clears most of the cheap tier.
Geno Smith ($4,900 DK, $6,700 FD) – cheap tier. He put up 41 attempts in Week 2, holds a 223.5 passing line, and New York is nearly a touchdown underdog in Detroit, so the dropbacks should be there. He's the cheapest quarterback we'd start, and he sits a notch under Shough.
FanDuel usually rewards spending at quarterback, and this week its prices don't. Malik Willis at $6,500 beats his FanDuel price by the widest margin at the position there, on 6.6 projected carries after a rushing touchdown in the opener, and he's our FanDuel play. If you want to spend, C.J. Stroud at $7,000 is the one we'd take, though Nico Collins's hamstring clouds his week.
RUNNING BACK
Pay up $7,300 and above, mid tier $5,600 to $7,200, cheap under $5,600.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800 DK, $9,200 FD) – the priciest player in the pool. He projects for 22.8 carries and 5.4 targets on a 26.9-point team total, after 45 carries and 13 targets across two games, and no back in the pool has a safer floor. He doesn't beat his price the way Kenneth Walker III does.
Kenneth Walker III ($7,400 DK, $8,300 FD) – the must of the week. He gets 23.1 carries and 4.3 targets for a Kansas City team implied for 27.5 points, off 47 carries for 290 yards and 16 targets through two games. The 10 targets he drew in Week 2 are the pass-game work that separates him from every other back in this tier, and an 84.5 rushing line agrees with the carries. Nobody in the pay-up tier beats his price by more, and at $1,400 under Gibbs, skipping him buys a worse back and saves nothing that matters.
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD) – mid tier, our third back, and the best one in the band without a tag. He's down for 15.0 carries and 3.8 targets behind a 71.5 rushing line, and he's scored three times in two games, twice as a receiver. That pass-game role is why he's safer than the carry count suggests.
Aaron Jones ($5,900 DK, $6,200 FD) – mid tier, and the most underpriced back in the pool, but he carries a knee designation we won't take into cash. He's projected for 24.4 carries, more than any back on the slate, after he turned 23 carries into 105 yards in Week 2. He hasn't caught a pass this season, so every point comes on the ground. If he's cleared Sunday morning he moves from want to must and takes the Hubbard slot.
Quinshon Judkins ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD) – cheap tier. He's the only back under $5,600 we'd use. He's down for 14.9 carries on a 59.5 rushing line and caught all five of his Week 2 targets. The efficiency is ugly, 54 yards on 24 carries, so treat him as a median play for a build that comes up short.
WIDE RECEIVER
Pay up $6,800 and above, mid tier $4,900 to $6,700, cheap under $4,900.
Chris Olave ($7,200 DK, $8,100 FD) – pay-up tier. With Nico Collins and Mike Evans both tagged, he's the best receiver in it against his price. He's projected for 10.6 targets, second only to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he owns 51.4% of the New Orleans air yards through two games. He already turned 338 of them into 268 receiving yards. That's a volume buy.
Garrett Wilson ($6,300 DK, $7,300 FD) – mid tier, and a must at receiver. He's down for 9.6 targets and a 30.6% share, with a 5.5 reception line behind it, and he took 37.0% of the New York air yards through two games, 152 of them for 136 receiving yards. Nobody in the tier beats his price by more. If Adonai Mitchell's finger keeps him out, Garrett Wilson's share climbs from there.
Josh Downs ($5,700 DK, $6,100 FD) – mid tier. Alec Pierce is out, and Downs is projected for 7.7 targets and a 26.0% share after seven catches for 72 yards on nine looks last week. He's taken 31.4% of the Indianapolis air yards and caught every yard of it, 109 thrown and 109 gained, so this is a role purchase. He fills our last DraftKings receiver slot at the right price.
Devaughn Vele ($4,400 DK, $5,700 FD) – cheap tier. He's down for 6.5 targets on the heels of 16 over two games, with a 4.5 line on receptions and 20.1% of the New Orleans air yards, and he's caught every yard of it: 132 air yards, 133 receiving. He's the underneath half of an offense tied for the most projected attempts on the slate, and only a $3,000 dart beats its price by more.
TIGHT END
Pay up $5,400 and above, mid tier $3,900 to $5,300, cheap under $3,900.
Trey McBride ($6,700 DK, $7,300 FD) – pay-up tier. He's down for 8.8 targets and a 31.7% share after 23 targets through two games and 33.0% of the Arizona air yards. The price wants all of that role on a 19.7-point team total. We won't pay $3,600 over Cade Otton for it.
Dalton Schultz ($4,200 DK, $5,800 FD) – mid tier. He's down for 8.2 targets after a 12-catch, 140-yard Week 2, and the catch is where that came from: Nico Collins logged no stats that day, and with Collins active in Week 1 Schultz drew eight looks for 35 yards. He works short, 17.2% of the Houston air yards and 175 receiving yards off 130 of them, so you're buying catches. If Collins sits, Schultz is worth the $1,100 over Otton. If Collins plays, he isn't.
Cade Otton ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD) – cheap tier. He's the tight end we're playing on DraftKings and the best one on the board against his price. He's projected for 5.6 targets behind a 3.5 reception line, after 11 targets and eight catches through two games on 14.1% of the Tampa Bay air yards, most of it caught. That's catch volume at a punt price, and the $1,100 saved over Schultz is what pays for Kenneth Walker III.
The FanDuel discount at the position is thinner, so we'd spend there on Mark Andrews ($4,400 DK, $5,300 FD). With Zay Flowers questionable, he's projected for a 24.2% share of a 27.2-point offense, and he's taken 15.7% of the Baltimore air yards on 13 targets.
DEFENSE
Pay up $3,200 and above, mid tier $2,600 to $3,100, cheap under $2,600.
New York Giants ($3,400 DK, $4,600 FD) – pay-up tier, against a Tennessee team implied for 18.6 points, third-lowest on the slate. Not at $1,000 over Tennessee on DraftKings.
Carolina ($3,000 DK, $3,800 FD) – mid tier. It's the best defense against its price on both sites. Deshaun Watson and Cleveland are implied for 20.0 points, and his 189.5 passing line is among the lowest on the board. We'd pay it on FanDuel.
Tennessee ($2,400 DK, $3,100 FD) – cheap tier. This is the defense we're playing on DraftKings. Jameis Winston managed 111 yards on 27 attempts in Week 2, and the Giants and Titans share the lowest game total on the slate.
The Swaps
Swap one, $100 apart. Jahmyr Gibbs plus Devaughn Vele at $13,200 against Aaron Jones plus Chris Olave at $13,100. The Aaron Jones side projects a hair higher, inside a point, so judgment is allowed to settle it, and the fourth tiebreaker does: that side carries a knee designation, and its worst outcome is a zero. Take Gibbs and Vele. If Aaron Jones is cleared Sunday morning, reopen it.
Swap two, $100 apart the other way. Kenneth Walker III plus Cade Otton at $10,500 against Chuba Hubbard plus Travis Kelce at $10,600. This one isn't close. The Kenneth Walker III side projects more than a point higher, and past a point we take the number rather than argue with it. Stepping down at running back to pay for a tight end gives up the better back for the position that busts most often.
Where that lands on DraftKings: Shough, Gibbs, Kenneth Walker III, Hubbard, Garrett Wilson, Downs, Vele, Otton and Tennessee, with $400 left.
GPP
Uncertainty
Two tags decide who gets the volume, and the field can't price either one on Friday. Aaron Jones is projected for more carries than any back on the slate, and Minnesota has nobody behind him projected for real work. If he's inactive, Demond Claiborne ($4,400 DK, $4,600 FD) inherits a backfield nobody priced. He's a dart that only exists if Aaron Jones sits, which is why almost nobody will have him.
Houston is the other one. If Nico Collins sits, the field goes straight to Dalton Schultz, already the most popular tight end on the board. The cheaper piece is Xavier Hutchinson ($4,000 DK, $5,800 FD): 15 targets through two games and 22.4% of the Houston air yards, but only 69 receiving yards out of 169. That gap is only worth buying if Collins is out, because Collins logged no stats in the game that produced it. If Collins plays, drop Hutchinson.
Duplication
Jahmyr Gibbs is the most popular player on the slate, and at his price he'll likely end up even more popular than projected. Amon-Ra St. Brown is second. The field's Detroit stack is Jared Goff, St. Brown and Gibbs, and it'll repeat across a lot of identical lineups. Stack Goff ($6,300 DK, $7,900 FD) with Jameson Williams ($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD) instead. He's projected for 38.1% of the Detroit air yards and took 32.5% through two games, 177 air yards for 78 receiving yards. Most of that gap is from Week 1, and he drew only four targets last week, so you're buying a downfield role in a 26.9-point offense, and the target line has been uneven. If Adonai Mitchell's finger clears, he's the bring-back, and the story is New York throwing to keep up.
Late Swap
Kickoff at 4:05 brings Arizona at San Francisco and Minnesota at Tampa Bay, and 4:25 brings Baltimore at Dallas and Las Vegas at New Orleans. Baltimore at Dallas carries the top game total of the week, with the field on both sides of it through CeeDee Lamb, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, so swapping in there buys lineups plenty of others already hold. Las Vegas at New Orleans is one-sided, with Olave and Shough carrying the chalk.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay is the pivot, and Aaron Jones is the reason. His status settles after the early games lock. If he's active, Aaron Jones plus Justin Jefferson is a Minnesota stack almost nobody built on Friday. If he's out, the game tilts to Tampa Bay: Baker Mayfield ($5,300 DK, $7,300 FD) with Emeka Egbuka ($6,200 DK, $6,000 FD), who holds 29.2% of the Tampa Bay air yards with 80 of them not yet caught. Keep a flex spot for this game and make the call once the 4:05 inactives post.
THIS WEEK'S MODEL BETS
These come from our game simulation, sorted by distance from the betting market. Neither spread mode has gone live yet, so every play here is a total or a moneyline.
Los Angeles Chargers moneyline (+295). The simulation has Buffalo winning by about three while the market line is seven and a half, and at this price the underdog doesn't need to win often to pay.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay, over 42.5 (-115). The simulation lands about six points above the number and rates both offenses better than a low-40s total allows. You're laying juice.
Arizona at San Francisco, over 47.5 (-115). It gets San Francisco into the mid-30s on its own, because Arizona's defense grades out far worse in the simulation than in the market. Juice again.
Washington moneyline (+290). The simulation has Seattle by about four and thinks a touchdown spread is too wide for a game totaled this low.
It's risking a sliver of a unit on each, which tells you how sure it is. The full game-by-game output is at /nfl-game-sim.
CHEAP WR
Our filter is receivers priced below $5,000 on DraftKings or at $6,000 or less on FanDuel who project for five-plus targets. We name the ones worth naming and skip the rest of the tier.
DraftKings & FanDuel
Devaughn Vele ($4,400 DK, $5,700 FD) – 6.5 targets, and our cash receiver at the bottom of the build. His floor comes from catches: 12 of them on 16 looks through two games.
Khalil Shakir ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD) – 5.9 targets and a 22.0% share, with DJ Moore questionable and Buffalo second on the slate in team total. He's at 18.5% of the Buffalo air yards, mostly underneath, so you're buying catches from an offense implied for 28.2 points.
Adonai Mitchell ($4,300 DK, $5,400 FD) – our lone positive regression candidate, and his finger designation rules him out for cash. Air yards targeted minus yards caught leaves him 114 unrealized through two games. Week 1: three targets, 59 air yards, 60 receiving yards. Week 2: 12 targets, 178 air yards, 63 receiving yards. The whole gap sits in one week, and it came from new volume, which is the part we're buying: he's projected for 53.0% of the New York air yards, the most of any receiver on the slate, at a price set off the box score.
Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD) – 5.3 targets and a 3.5 reception line. He drew eight targets last week and holds 24.7% of the Jacksonville air yards through two games, 126 of them for 80 yards. The deep ones haven't landed yet, and the price hasn't caught up to the eight looks.
FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)
Emeka Egbuka ($6,200 DK, $6,000 FD) – FanDuel prices him $200 under DraftKings. He's down for 7.1 targets and 38.3% of the projected Tampa Bay air yards, with 80 air yards through two games still uncaught. On FanDuel that's a WR2 role at a cheap-receiver price.
Carnell Tate ($5,000 DK, $5,500 FD) – 5.9 targets and 35.5% of the projected Tennessee air yards, after taking 42.2% through two games and turning 117 air yards into 65 receiving yards. An 18.6-point team total says the volume comes from chasing.
RANKINGS
| Pos | Rank | DK | FD |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1 | Tyler Shough | Malik Willis |
| QB | 2 | Geno Smith | C.J. Stroud |
| QB | 3 | Dak Prescott | Geno Smith |
| RB | 1 | Kenneth Walker III | Kenneth Walker III |
| RB | 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | Chuba Hubbard |
| RB | 3 | Chuba Hubbard | Aaron Jones |
| RB | 4 | Aaron Jones | Jahmyr Gibbs |
| WR | 1 | Garrett Wilson | Garrett Wilson |
| WR | 2 | Chris Olave | Devaughn Vele |
| WR | 3 | Devaughn Vele | Josh Downs |
| WR | 4 | Josh Downs | Chris Olave |
| WR | 5 | Khalil Shakir | Emeka Egbuka |
| WR | 6 | Adonai Mitchell | Adonai Mitchell |
| TE | 1 | Cade Otton | Mark Andrews |
| TE | 2 | Dalton Schultz | Travis Kelce |
| TE | 3 | Travis Kelce | Cade Otton |
| DST | 1 | Tennessee | Carolina |
| DST | 2 | Carolina | Tennessee |
Tools used for this slate
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.