Week 4 NFL DFS Top Plays: Cash, GPP, and Cheap WR

Twelve games. Indianapolis and Washington play in London Sunday morning and sit off the main slate. Garrett Wilson ($6,800) is the most underpriced receiver on the board, and we're building around him with three backs, Chase Brown ($6,100) chief among them, which means a $3,300 tight end and a $2,000 defense on DraftKings. Some of the board moved since Wednesday, and the table below shows what changed. Inactives post Sunday, so treat every designation here as a Friday read. Wednesday's Matchups piece breaks down all twelve games.

Cash gets the players we think DraftKings and FanDuel priced too low, with a dependable floor and a real ceiling on top of it. Ownership doesn't factor in there. GPP is where it takes over. We list each position by salary, priciest first, and close with a ranking for each site.

What Changed Since Wednesday

Player	Wednesday	Friday
Josh Allen, BUF QB	Questionable (knee)	No tag, holds the passing line
Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR	Questionable (leg)	No tag
Breece Hall, NYJ RB	Questionable (thigh)	Doubtful (quadriceps)
Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR	Questionable	Doubtful
Jayden Reed, GB WR	Doubtful	Injured reserve
D'Andre Swift, CHI RB	No tag	Questionable (knee)
DeVonta Smith, PHI WR	No tag	Questionable (hamstring)
Kenyon Sadiq, NYJ TE	No tag	Questionable (back)
Chicago quarterback	Unclear	Tyson Bagent holds the passing line

High Impact Injuries

Player	Status	Impact (1-10)	Who benefits
Baker Mayfield, TB QB	Out	10	Jalon Daniels ($4,400), the only Tampa Bay quarterback with a Sunday passing line
Caleb Williams, CHI QB	Doubtful (hamstring)	10	Tyson Bagent ($4,800). He's cleared from his concussion and holds Sunday's passing line
Breece Hall, NYJ RB	Doubtful (quadriceps)	9	Braelon Allen ($5,200), projected for 12.7 carries
Puka Nacua, LA WR	Questionable (hip)	8	Davante Adams ($7,000) climbs to a 38.4% share if Nacua sits
Justin Jefferson, MIN WR	Questionable (ankle)	8	Jordan Addison climbs to a 32.1% share if Jefferson sits
Nico Collins, HOU WR	Questionable (hamstring)	8	Xavier Hutchinson ($4,300, 21 targets so far), Dalton Schultz ($4,800)
DeVonta Smith, PHI WR	Questionable (hamstring)	8	Makai Lemon ($4,100) and Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300), each near 27% if Smith sits
D'Andre Swift, CHI RB	Questionable (knee)	8	Kyle Monangai ($4,900) goes from 9.4 to 22.4 projected carries
Adonai Mitchell, NYJ WR	Doubtful (finger)	8	Garrett Wilson (36.9% projected share)
Mike Evans, SF WR	Questionable (ribs)	7	Deebo Samuel Sr. climbs to a 25.9% share if Evans sits

High Impact Weather

No main-slate game has weather strong enough to move a decision this week. Arizona at the Giants and New England at Buffalo carry steady 9 to 11 mph wind with gusts near 15, which can take a few yards off the deep throws but won't change who we play. Tennessee at Baltimore has a 63% chance of light rain through the game window, which nudges both offenses toward the run. Kansas City at Las Vegas and Miami at Minnesota play indoors, and Houston closes its roof.

CASH

QUARTERBACK

We cut each position's DraftKings salary range into thirds: pay up $6,600 and above, mid tier $5,500 to $6,500, cheap under $5,500.

Brock Purdy ($6,700 DK, $8,300 FD) – pay-up tier. Purdy, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all trail their prices, so we aren't spending at quarterback.

C.J. Stroud ($5,700 DK, $7,000 FD) – mid tier, and our quarterback on both sites. He's projected for 35.5 attempts, behind only Jordan Love, with a 244.5 passing yardage line and a Houston team total of 25.1. He's thrown 120 passes across three games, so the volume isn't a guess. Nobody in his tier beats the price by more, and nobody under $6,000 at the position has a higher floor. If Nico Collins's hamstring keeps him out, Stroud loses his best target, and that caps the ceiling.

Jalon Daniels ($4,400 DK, $6,400 FD) – cheap tier. With Baker Mayfield out, Jalon Daniels carries Tampa Bay's passing line at 169.5, with a 34.5 rushing line beside it, so the legs are what make him playable. He beats his salary by more than any quarterback on either site. He also went 0 for 3 in relief last week, and Tampa Bay is implied for 19.2, so he's a GPP salary saver more than a cash anchor.

Jacoby Brissett ($5,000 DK, $6,800 FD) – cheap tier. He attempted 52 passes in Week 3 and turned them into 280 yards and two touchdowns, holds a 229.5 passing line, and gets 31.1 projected attempts. That's the steadier cheap option if Stroud doesn't fit.

RUNNING BACK

Pay up $6,900 and above, mid tier $5,500 to $6,800, cheap under $5,500.

Kenneth Walker III ($8,200 DK, $8,500 FD) – no back on the slate projects higher. He's run 65 times for 360 yards through three games and scored four touchdowns, and the books set his carry line at 17.5, a number he's beaten every week. Add 4.0 projected targets and a 25.3-point Kansas City total. Chase Brown is the better value, but Kenneth Walker III is the third back in our build because the pass-game work keeps his floor off the touchdown.

Christian McCaffrey ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD) – pay-up tier. His projection is 5.7 targets (20.3% of the San Francisco looks) and 13.5 carries behind a 4.5 receptions line, with three touchdowns so far. He's capped by the carry count.

Chase Brown ($6,100 DK, $7,600 FD) – our must this week. His projection is 16.8 carries with 4.2 targets in Cincinnati's 26.7-point spot, the game with the highest total on the slate, and he's handled 49 carries and 13 targets through three games. No back between $5,500 and $6,800 clears his salary by more, and the targets are what keep his floor out of the touchdown-or-bust bin. Getting off him means a back with fewer targets in a worse game for the same money.

Aaron Jones ($6,000 DK, $6,400 FD) – mid tier. He projects for 16.8 carries with 2.7 targets on Minnesota's 25.3. He didn't catch a pass in Weeks 1 and 2, then hauled in five on six looks last week. On FanDuel he's $1,200 under Chase Brown and beats his salary by a wider margin, which makes him our first back there.

Jeremiyah Love ($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD) – mid tier. Arizona gave him 21 carries and five receptions last week, one for a touchdown, and he's projected for 14.6 carries plus 3.6 targets. He's the cheaper way to three backs if Kenneth Walker III doesn't fit.

RJ Harvey ($5,000 DK, $5,800 FD) – cheap tier, and the one back under $5,500 we'd use. He's a receiving back, 5.2 targets and a 3.5 receptions line on only 3.9 carries, after 11 targets across his two games. Braelon Allen ($5,200) gets more carries if Breece Hall sits, but he had four in Week 3 with Hall active, so we're waiting on the news.

WIDE RECEIVER

Pay up $7,100 and above, mid tier $5,000 to $7,000, cheap under $5,000.

Puka Nacua ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD) – pay-up tier. On paper nobody in the tier clears his salary by more, but he carries a hip designation and hasn't recorded a stat since Week 1, so his projection assumes a role he hasn't had in two weeks. We won't use him in cash. Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100) is the best healthy option in the tier and still trails his salary.

Garrett Wilson ($6,800 DK, $7,600 FD) – a must at receiver, and no receiver on the slate clears his salary by more. We project a 36.9% target share, most at the position, and the books set his catch line at 6.5. Last week he turned 13 targets into 10 catches, 107 yards and a touchdown. He holds 41.9% of the New York air yards through three games, 284 of them for 243 receiving yards, so this is a volume purchase rather than a rebound. With Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor both doubtful, no other Jets receiver projects for more than 2.4 targets.

Christian Watson ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD) – mid tier. He's down for 9.4 targets and has turned 304 air yards into 284 receiving yards, so he's been paid. He beats his price on FanDuel more than on DraftKings, and we'd rather not pair two Green Bay receivers in a game totaled at 41.

Tee Higgins ($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD) – mid tier, our third receiver. He's projected for 7.5 targets and 47.0% of the Cincinnati air yards, and he's already held 45.9% through three games, 302 thrown and 244 caught. You're buying deep targets on a 26.7-point team total, and he's caught most of what came his way.

Matthew Golden ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD) – mid tier, and second only to Garrett Wilson in the tier on value. He's projected for 9.2 targets and a 25.8% share with Jayden Reed on IR, after 30 targets through three games. He's taken 38.7% of the Green Bay air yards and still has 163 of them uncaught, the gap Wednesday's Matchups piece broke out week by week.

TIGHT END

Pay up $5,400 and above, mid tier $4,000 to $5,300, cheap under $4,000.

Trey McBride ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) – pay-up tier. He's projected for 9.2 targets and a 29.6% share with a 7.5 receptions line, the most targets at the position. We won't pay $3,200 over T.J. Hockenson for it.

Kenyon Sadiq ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD) – mid tier. He caught seven of eight targets for 105 yards and a touchdown last week and projects for 6.3 more, but he carries a back designation, and a tagged tight end isn't a cash play.

T.J. Hockenson ($3,300 DK, $4,900 FD) – cheap tier, and our DraftKings tight end. No tight end under $4,000 is a better value. He's down for 4.5 targets and a 20.4% share behind a 4.5 receptions line, after 13 targets through three games on 16.4% of the Minnesota air yards. He works short, so you're buying catches, and if Justin Jefferson sits, his share climbs.

Cade Otton ($3,400 DK, $4,900 FD) – cheap tier. He's projected for 5.7 targets, more than Hockenson, after 17 targets through three games. The targets came from Baker Mayfield, and Jalon Daniels throws to him now, which is why he sits a notch below.

DEFENSE

Pay up $3,300 and above, mid tier $2,700 to $3,200, cheap under $2,700.

Minnesota ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD) – pay-up tier, against a Miami offense implied for 15.6, lowest on the board. Not at $2,000 over Miami's defense on DraftKings.

Chicago ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD) – mid tier, and the best value at defense on both sites. Geno Smith projects for 32.4 attempts on a 19.8-point Jets total. It's our FanDuel defense.

Miami ($2,000 DK, $3,000 FD) – cheap tier, and our DraftKings defense. It's a salary play. No cheap defense clears its salary by more, and Kyler Murray's 207.5 passing line is modest.

The Swaps

First swap, separated by $100. Kenneth Walker III plus Tee Higgins at $14,300 against Christian McCaffrey plus Christian Watson at $14,400. The McCaffrey pair projects slightly higher but by less than a point, which leaves room for a judgment call. We take Kenneth Walker III and Tee Higgins, because the other side stacks Christian Watson with Golden from one offense in a game totaled at 41, and cash doesn't want that much riding on one team.

Second swap, also $100 apart. Aaron Jones plus Hockenson at $9,300 against Braelon Allen plus Sadiq at $9,200. The two sides project dead even, and the fourth tiebreaker settles it: Sadiq has a back designation and Braelon Allen's carries depend on Breece Hall sitting, so that side has two ways to a zero. Take Aaron Jones and Hockenson.

The Builds

GPP

Uncertainty

Two questionable tags will move volume on Sunday, and nobody can price them yet. If D'Andre Swift's knee keeps him out, Kyle Monangai ($4,900 DK, $6,100 FD) goes from 9.4 projected carries to 22.4. He's run exactly 10 times in each game this season and gone for 178 yards, so the role exists, and the field will barely touch him. Chicago hasn't named a quarterback. Case Keenum started Week 3, but Tyson Bagent is cleared from his concussion and the books hung Sunday's line on him, so expect Bagent and confirm before lock.

Puka Nacua is the other one. Davante Adams ($7,000 DK, $8,300 FD) already owns 44.9% of the Rams' air yards through three games, 498 thrown and 358 caught, and his projected share jumps to 38.4% if Nacua sits. If Nacua plays, the field goes to him and Adams is the overlooked half of the same passing game.

Leverage D/ST

Nobody on the slate projects to be more popular than Garrett Wilson, and players at his salary usually draw more of the field than we project. The cheapest way off him is Chicago ($3,000 DK, $3,500 FD), which already grades as the best defense value on both sites. The story is one coherent game: Chicago's defense keeps the Jets under their 19.8, the Bears win as four-point favorites, and Kyle Monangai or D'Andre Swift runs out the clock. Pair the defense with whichever Chicago back is active. That lineup needs Garrett Wilson to have a quiet day.

Late Swap

The late window has Miami at Minnesota at 4:05, then Kansas City at Las Vegas, Denver at San Francisco and the Chargers at Seattle at 4:25. Kansas City at Las Vegas is the trap. Kenneth Walker III projects as the most popular running back, and Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers carry the Raiders side, so a swap into that game copies the field.

Denver at San Francisco is the pivot. The field is on Christian McCaffrey, and the Denver side is light: Bo Nix ($5,600 DK, $7,600 FD) with Jaylen Waddle ($6,200 DK, $6,600 FD), whose designation is gone and who holds 43.8% of the Denver air yards with 97 of them uncaught. That stack is for lineups that come out of the early window behind. If you're ahead, hold Kenneth Walker III and let the field chase.

Minnesota is the other reason to keep a flex open. Justin Jefferson's ankle status won't be final until the 1:00 games have locked. If he sits, Jordan Addison ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD) goes from a 22.0% projected share to 32.1%, and he turned nine Week 3 targets into 151 air yards and 90 receiving yards.

THIS WEEK'S MODEL BETS

Our game simulation picked these four, largest disagreement with the market first. None of them is a spread.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay, over 39.5 (-105). The simulation lands near 50 and grades both offenses above average, Jalon Daniels and all.

New York Giants moneyline (+104). It has the Giants winning by about eight while the market makes Arizona a slight favorite.

Miami at Minnesota, over 38.5 (-114). The simulation gets Minnesota to about 30 on its own, in a game the market totals near the bottom of the slate. You're laying juice.

Kansas City at Las Vegas, under 47.5 (-110). It holds Las Vegas under 17 and lands about seven points below the number.

The stake on each is a small fraction of a unit, an honest read on its confidence. Every game's simulated score sits at /nfl-game-sim.

CHEAP WR

Main-slate receivers under $5,000 on DraftKings or $6,000 or less on FanDuel, projected for five or more targets. This isn't the whole cheap tier, only the receivers we'd play.

DraftKings & FanDuel

Tre Harris ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) – 5.8 targets and an 18.9% share, after six catches on seven targets for 76 yards in Week 3. He's turned 162 air yards into 149 receiving yards, so you're buying the role. Ladd McConkey's foot designation is the path to more: if McConkey sits, Tre Harris climbs to a 23.6% share, and the Chargers' 18.9 team total says they'll be throwing.

Malik Washington ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD) – 6.2 targets and 29.5% of the projected Miami air yards, on the lowest team total of the slate, so the volume comes from trailing. He has 123 unrealized air yards through three games, broken out in the closing block, and Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell are both questionable.

Carnell Tate ($4,800 DK, $5,600 FD) – 7.0 targets and 38.6% of the projected Tennessee air yards, with Baltimore favored by 10.5. His 96-yard gap is in the closing block.

FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)

Emeka Egbuka ($5,900 DK, $5,900 FD) – priced the same on both sites, which makes him cheap on FanDuel. He's projected for 7.8 targets and a 24.7% share. His 109 unrealized air yards came from Baker Mayfield, though, and Jalon Daniels changes that, so you're buying the target count rather than the rebound.

Luther Burden III ($5,200 DK, $5,800 FD) – 6.6 targets and a 23.3% share after 11 looks in Week 3. He holds 27.3% of the Chicago air yards and has caught most of it, 179 thrown and 156 gained. Bagent or Keenum, he projects for more targets than anyone else in Chicago.

Unrealized Air Yards

Take every air yard targeted at a receiver, subtract what he caught, and the remainder is unrealized. These three keep getting thrown deep, and the box score hasn't caught up.

Davante Adams, Rams: 140 unrealized. Week 1: six targets, 73 air yards, 26 receiving yards. Week 2: 10 targets, 198 air yards, 195 receiving yards. Week 3: 13 targets, 227 air yards, 137 receiving yards. He's drawn more targets every week, and the gap sits in Weeks 1 and 3. If Puka Nacua sits, his projected share climbs to 38.4%.

Malik Washington, Miami: 123 unrealized, and our one positive regression candidate under $5,000. Week 1: eight targets, 135 air yards, 53 receiving yards. Week 2: five targets, 27 air yards, 43 receiving yards. Week 3: 10 targets, 113 air yards, 56 receiving yards. The gap came in two of three weeks, and the targets are still there on the slate's lowest team total.

Carnell Tate, Tennessee: 96 unrealized. Week 1: six targets, 67 air yards, 38 receiving yards. Week 2: five targets, 50 air yards, 27 receiving yards. Week 3: nine targets, 102 air yards, 58 receiving yards. That's a steady gap, a little over 40% of his air yards left uncaught every week, and Tennessee is a 10.5-point underdog, so the targets should keep coming.

RANKINGS

Pos	Rank	DK	FD
QB	1	C.J. Stroud	C.J. Stroud
QB	2	Jalon Daniels	Jalon Daniels
QB	3	Jacoby Brissett	Malik Willis
RB	1	Chase Brown	Aaron Jones
RB	2	Aaron Jones	Jeremiyah Love
RB	3	Kenneth Walker III	Chase Brown
RB	4	Jeremiyah Love	Kenneth Walker III
WR	1	Garrett Wilson	Garrett Wilson
WR	2	Matthew Golden	Matthew Golden
WR	3	Tee Higgins	Emeka Egbuka
WR	4	Tre Harris	Carnell Tate
WR	5	Christian Watson	Tre Harris
WR	6	Carnell Tate	Christian Watson
TE	1	T.J. Hockenson	T.J. Hockenson
TE	2	Cade Otton	Isaiah Likely
TE	3	Brenton Strange	Mark Andrews
DST	1	Miami	Chicago
DST	2	Chicago	Minnesota

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.