Monte Carlo Sim

Monte Carlo simulators for MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL and UFC

Five simulators in one place. Switch sport at the top of the page to move between the MLB slate, the NFL week, the NBA slate, the NHL slate and the next UFC card without leaving the tool. Each reports the same things: a win probability for each side, the chance of each result the books price, and the gap between the simulated probability and the price the sportsbook is offering. All five are free with an account.

They are five different models, not one model with a sport filter, so the numbers are not directly comparable between them. Use this view to see what is on the board across all five sports, and the per-sport pages when you want the detail for one.

How the models differ

The MLB simulator is a team-level run model. It builds an expected run total for each side from the starting pitchers, the batting order and its platoon split, bullpen state, park, weather, the plate umpire and catcher framing, then plays the game out inning by inning many times. Run totals are what it prices, which is why it covers totals and run lines.

The NFL simulator is a drive-level model. It draws a possession count for each team, resolves each drive as a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, then plays a score-aware final possession. That is necessary because football margins pile up on 3 and 7, so a smooth margin distribution misprices a spread sitting on a key number. It runs 20,000 iterations per game on the server rather than in your browser.

The NBA simulator plays every game 20,000 times from team offense and defense ratings, home court, back-to-backs and the value of rotation players who are out. Moneyline picks are live; spreads and totals are paper because neither beat the closing line over two seasons.

The NHL simulator plays every game minute by minute, 20,000 times. It models score effects, a pulled-goalie endgame, 3-on-3 overtime and a shootout, with the shootout winner counting as one goal the way the books grade. Expected goals come from shots, finishing, the starting goalie, home ice and back-to-backs, never from the betting line. Moneyline and puck line picks are live; totals are paper because the model showed no total skill over two seasons.

The UFC simulator plays every bout 20,000 times round by round, with a knockout rate and a submission rate for each fighter in each round. The moneyline sets the winner and the total rounds line sets the pace, because those markets beat our own win model in testing. The model sets how and when the fight ends, which is where it beat a split by weight class.

Reading an edge without overreacting to it

The number worth acting on is the difference between the simulated probability and the price implied by the market after the juice is removed. A small edge sits inside the model's own error bar. A large edge usually means the model is missing something the market already knows, most often a lineup or an injury, so check before assuming you have found something.

Break even at standard -110 juice is 52.4 percent. Every pick either model publishes is recorded at the price it was made and graded against the real final score, and the History tab on each sport carries the running record, the cumulative profit and loss on a flat one unit stake, and a breakdown by how big the edge was.

Frequently asked questions