Week 9 is final, except for Buffalo at Minnesota on Monday night. Friday's Top Plays article built cash around Joe Milton, Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua. Nacua, CeeDee Lamb and Matthew Golden paid. Gibbs scored 13.4 at $10,000. The Millionaire went to a Jordan Love lineup with Golden and Christian Watson that scored 221.38. Green Bay beat New England 45 to 27, and that game decided the slate. All scores below are DraftKings points.
WEEK 9 AT A GLANCE
| Friday call | Week 9 | Season |
|---|---|---|
| Cash plays that beat their position average | 12 of 24 | 68 of 136 |
| Cash swaps | 2 of 3 | 7 of 13 |
| Line calls | 11 of 14 | 18 of 26 |
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Per $1K | Beat Pos Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB Brock Purdy | $6,800 | 26.28 | 3.86 | Yes |
| QB Jayden Daniels | $6,000 | 15.56 | 2.59 | No |
| QB Malik Willis | $5,100 | 4.82 | 0.95 | No |
| QB Daniel Jones | $4,700 | 11.3 | 2.40 | No |
| QB Joe Milton | $4,100 | 14.16 | 3.45 | Yes |
| RB Jahmyr Gibbs | $10,000 | 13.4 | 1.34 | No |
| RB Chuba Hubbard | $6,500 | 13.6 | 2.09 | Yes |
| RB Rhamondre Stevenson | $6,100 | 15.8 | 2.59 | Yes |
| RB Woody Marks | $5,700 | 8.4 | 1.47 | No |
| RB Jonah Coleman | $5,300 | 18.8 | 3.55 | Yes |
| RB Elijah Mitchell | $4,500 | 5.6 | 1.24 | No |
| WR Puka Nacua | $8,800 | 39.0 | 4.43 | Yes |
| WR CeeDee Lamb | $8,300 | 37.5 | 4.52 | Yes |
| WR Matthew Golden | $7,000 | 35.4 | 5.06 | Yes |
| WR Jaylen Waddle | $5,700 | 3.2 | 0.56 | No |
| WR Antonio Williams | $4,100 | 5.5 | 1.34 | No |
| WR Efton Chism III | $3,600 | 15.9 | 4.42 | Yes |
| TE Brock Bowers | $7,900 | 26.3 | 3.33 | Yes |
| TE Tyler Warren | $4,600 | 8.4 | 1.83 | No |
| TE Dalton Schultz | $3,200 | 6.2 | 1.94 | No |
| TE Greg Dulcich | $3,100 | 3.4 | 1.10 | No |
| DST Houston | $3,500 | 12 | 3.43 | Yes |
| DST New Orleans | $2,900 | 5 | 1.72 | No |
| DST Philadelphia | $2,500 | 9 | 3.60 | Yes |
| Call | Result | Hit |
|---|---|---|
| Saints pass rush vs Browns line | 5 sacks on 36 dropbacks | Yes |
| Texans pass rush vs Chargers line | 8 sacks on 38 dropbacks | Yes |
| Broncos pass rush vs Panthers line | 3 sacks on 42 dropbacks | Yes |
| Lions pass rush vs Dolphins line | 3 sacks on 29 dropbacks | Yes |
| Seahawks pass rush vs Cardinals line | 3 sacks on 33 dropbacks | Yes |
| Chiefs line keeps it clean vs Jets | 2 sacks on 33 dropbacks | Yes |
| Raiders line keeps it clean vs 49ers | 0 sacks on 32 dropbacks | Yes |
| Patriots defense, small share vs Packers | -1 point, 3 sacks on 32 dropbacks | Yes |
| Rams run game vs Commanders | 26 carries, 103 yards, 3.96 YPC | No |
| 49ers run game vs Raiders | 33 carries, 153 yards, 4.64 YPC | Yes |
| Lions run game vs Dolphins | 23 carries, 88 yards, 3.83 YPC | No |
| Chargers run game vs Texans (tough) | 27 carries, 123 yards, 4.56 YPC | No |
| Dolphins run game vs Lions (tough) | 17 carries, 54 yards, 3.18 YPC | Yes |
| Cardinals run game vs Seahawks (tough) | 17 carries, 46 yards, 2.71 YPC | Yes |
Season covers Weeks 4 to 9. We started to grade line calls in Week 8. Millionaire winner: 221.38 with Love, Golden and Watson. Top ROI play: Love at +512%. Biggest miss: Gibbs at $10,000, with one target and no catches, while Kenneth Walker III, the back we left out, scored 39.3.
CASH REVIEW
The DraftKings Build
We did not enter a cash lineup from Friday's pool this week. Friday gave a pool of cash plays and three swaps. We grade each play on its own and do not add up a lineup total.
The cash line was 128.18 in the $5 50-50 and 139.36 in the $400K Spy. It was 139.36 in the $40K Screen Pass and 140.12 in the $250K Power Sweep.
We grade each play against its own position. The position average is the points per $1,000 of salary for every player at that position on at least 0.5% of Millionaire lineups. This week it was 3.11 at quarterback, 1.84 at running back, 2.19 at receiver, 2.37 at tight end and 2.50 at defense. The full pool is in the Cash Pool tab above.
Twelve of the 24 cash plays beat their position average. Over Weeks 4 to 9, the Friday cash pool is 68 of 136, an even split. Friday named nine first choices: Milton, Gibbs, Chuba Hubbard, Woody Marks, Nacua, Golden, Antonio Williams, Tyler Warren and the Saints. Four of the nine beat their position average. Four of the six receivers beat the receiver average. Only one of four tight ends beat his average. The Sunday Update moved Lamb and Rhamondre Stevenson up, and both beat their averages.
What Worked
Matthew Golden ($7,000): 10 catches on 10 targets for 164 yards and a touchdown, 35.4 points. Friday made him the mid-priced cash receiver. His 5.06 per $1,000 was the best in the pool.
CeeDee Lamb ($8,300): 10 catches on 16 targets for 195 yards and a touchdown, 37.5 points. He also lost a fumble. George Pickens was out, and the Sunday Update called Lamb an easier cash call. Dallas won 27 to 23.
Puka Nacua ($8,800): 14 catches on 19 targets for 150 yards and a touchdown. He ran twice for 20 yards and lost a fumble. He scored 39.0. Friday expected 11 or 12 targets. The Rams threw 43 times, and he saw 19 of them.
Jonah Coleman ($5,300): 17 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown, plus four catches on four targets for 31 yards. He scored 18.8. Friday expected about 13 carries, and he got 17.
Efton Chism III ($3,600): five catches on five targets for 49 yards and a touchdown, 15.9 points. Friday expected four or five targets for the short-area role. He got five.
Brock Purdy ($6,800): 17 of 25 for 232 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He ran seven times for 40 yards and a touchdown. Friday made him the FanDuel quarterback. He scored 26.28 on DraftKings, 3.86 per $1,000.
Joe Milton ($4,100): 18 of 34 for 169 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran nine times for 64 yards and lost a fumble. He scored 14.16, or 3.45 per $1,000, above the quarterback average of 3.11. The Giants sacked him seven times in a 19 to 11 loss.
Houston D/ST ($3,500): eight sacks and 12 points. It was our FanDuel defense, and the pass rush call against the Chargers line was the best of the week.
What Failed
Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,000): 20 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown. He drew one target and caught none. He scored 13.4. Friday expected about 22 carries and five targets. Detroit threw 26 times and won 19 to 9 on four field goals, so he got the carries we wanted and almost none of the passing work.
Jaylen Waddle ($5,700): one catch on one target for 22 yards, 3.2 points. NBC Sports reported that he had a concussion in the game and did not return for the second half. Denver threw 37 times, and Courtland Sutton drew nine targets.
Antonio Williams ($4,100): three catches on six targets for 25 yards, 5.5 points. Washington threw 35 times and lost 20 to 13. Friday expected about five targets, and he got six, but he averaged about 4 yards a target.
Woody Marks ($5,700): 18 carries for 70 yards and one catch on four targets for 4 yards, 8.4 points. Friday expected 16 or 17 carries, and he got 18. Houston won 44 to 22, but C.J. Stroud threw all five touchdowns.
Tyler Warren ($4,600): four catches on seven targets for 44 yards, 8.4 points. Indianapolis threw 34 times in the 27 to 23 loss. Daniel Jones went 20 of 34 for 180 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Greg Dulcich ($3,100): two catches on four targets for 14 yards, 3.4 points. Miami threw 26 times and scored 9.
Malik Willis ($5,100): 13 of 25 for 128 yards and an interception. He ran twice for 7 yards. He scored 4.82. Friday counted on his legs, and the books had him at 5.5 rushing attempts. The AP reported that he came in with a groin injury and said after the game that it was tight. Detroit sacked him three times on 29 dropbacks.
Elijah Mitchell ($4,500): three carries for 6 yards and three catches for 20 yards, 5.6 points. Saquon Barkley played and ran 13 times for 22 yards and a touchdown, so Mitchell stayed a backup.
New Orleans D/ST ($2,900): five sacks and 5 points. The pass rush call hit, but Shedeur Sanders went 19 of 31 for 297 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints won 23 to 22. Philadelphia, the cheapest defense in the pool, scored 9 with six sacks.
The Swaps, Graded
Swap one: Friday took Joe Milton plus CeeDee Lamb (51.66 points) over Jayden Daniels plus Rashee Rice (25.46 points). We took the right side by 26.2 points. Daniels went 24 of 35 for 273 yards and a touchdown and lost a fumble. Rice caught five of seven targets for 49 yards.
Swap two: Friday took Woody Marks plus Matthew Golden (43.8 points) over Kenneth Walker III plus Efton Chism III (55.2 points). That call cost 11.4 points. Golden won his side of the swap. Walker ran 18 times for 102 yards and a touchdown. He caught four of four targets for 41 yards and two more scores.
Swap three: Friday took Tyler Warren plus Antonio Williams (13.9 points) over Dalton Schultz plus Jaylen Waddle (9.4 points). We took the right side by 4.5 points. Both sides missed their position averages, and Waddle left with a concussion.
GPP REVIEW
| Slot | Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jordan Love | $6,300 | 39.18 | 2.8% |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | $9,000 | 39.3 | 11.9% |
| RB | Jonah Coleman | $5,300 | 18.8 | 38.0% |
| WR | Christian Watson | $7,500 | 33.1 | 4.2% |
| WR | Matthew Golden | $7,000 | 35.4 | 9.7% |
| WR | DeMario Douglas | $4,800 | 18.2 | 9.2% |
| TE | Greg Dulcich | $3,100 | 3.4 | 23.3% |
| FLEX | Darren Waller | $3,300 | 23.0 | 1.0% |
| DST | Kansas City | $3,700 | 11 | 2.2% |
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love, GB QB | $6,300 | 39.18 | 2.8% | +512% |
| Tommy Tremble, CAR TE | $2,600 | 12.4 | 0.7% | +436% |
| Tank Dell, HOU WR | $3,500 | 23.5 | 1.0% | +435% |
| Emmett Johnson, KC RB | $4,900 | 9.4 | 0.7% | +419% |
| Christian Watson, GB WR | $7,500 | 33.1 | 4.2% | +257% |
| Darren Waller, CAR TE | $3,300 | 23.0 | 1.0% | +97% |
| Matthew Golden, GB WR | $7,000 | 35.4 | 9.7% | +88% |
| Kenneth Walker III, KC RB | $9,000 | 39.3 | 11.9% | +45% |
| Efton Chism III, NE WR | $3,600 | 15.9 | 2.1% | +34% |
| Jordan Watkins, SF WR | $3,300 | 18.6 | 3.6% | +30% |
| Player | Salary | DK Pts | Field Own | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonah Coleman, DEN RB | $5,300 | 18.8 | 38.0% | -33% |
| Christian McCaffrey, SF RB | $8,000 | 22.7 | 30.6% | -54% |
| Puka Nacua, LAR WR | $8,800 | 39.0 | 28.5% | -12% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, DET RB | $10,000 | 13.4 | 28.2% | -89% |
| Devin Singletary, NYG RB | $4,600 | 5.9 | 27.1% | -48% |
| George Kittle, SF TE | $6,000 | 9.8 | 25.9% | -68% |
| Greg Dulcich, MIA TE | $3,100 | 3.4 | 23.3% | -64% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA WR | $9,300 | 12.1 | 22.4% | -87% |
| CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR | $8,300 | 37.5 | 20.1% | -17% |
| Antonio Williams, WAS WR | $4,100 | 5.5 | 20.0% | -58% |
Millionaire: What Won
The $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire had 147,058 entries and paid $1M to first. The winning lineup scored 221.38 and used all $50,000. It is in the What Won tab above.
Love went 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns, and he ran one in. Golden and Watson drew 18 of his 29 throws. Watson caught seven of eight targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. DeMario Douglas was the bring-back from New England, with five catches on nine targets for 102 yards. Darren Waller, in the flex, caught eight of 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown at 1.0% owned. Walker scored three touchdowns for the Chiefs.
Second place scored 215.78, 5.6 points back. It had Love, Watson, Walker and Nacua. It added Alvin Kamara, Emmett Johnson, Tommy Tremble, Tank Dell and the Green Bay defense. Love was in all of the top 12 lineups. Golden was in 11, Watson in 10, Walker in seven, and Coleman and Nacua in six each.
Top ROI Plays
ROI is the return on each $20 entry for every lineup that used the player. We remove the $1M first prize, so one lineup cannot set the number. The list uses players on at least 0.5% of lineups, and the Top ROI tab above has the top 10. The full board is on the NFL Player ROI tool.
Love returned +512% at 2.8% owned. Watson returned +257% and Golden +88%. Tremble, Tank Dell and Emmett Johnson were each on 1.0% of lineups or less, and all three were in the second-place lineup. At that ownership, a few high finishes set the number. Dell caught four of nine targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Tremble caught four of six for 24 yards and a touchdown. Johnson ran six times for 34 yards and a touchdown.
Walker returned +45% at 11.9% owned. He was the most popular player on the Top ROI list. Chism, a Friday cash play, returned +34%.
The Chalk That Failed
All 10 of the most popular players lost money. The Failed Chalk tab above has the list. Nacua scored 39.0 and Lamb 37.5, and both still lost money. The lineups that won had the Green Bay passing game, and most of the field did not.
Gibbs was on 28.2% of lineups and returned -89%. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was on 22.4% and caught seven of 10 targets for 51 yards. He returned -87%. Devin Singletary ran 21 times for 31 yards at 27.1% owned. George Kittle caught four of seven targets for 58 yards at 25.9% owned. San Francisco won 38 to 17 and threw only 25 times.
Only one defense at 5% owned or more made money: Green Bay (12 points, +3%). The Giants scored 13 at 14.3% owned and returned -15%. Houston had eight sacks and 12 points and still returned -60%. The Saints were the most popular defense at 14.8%, scored 5 and returned -70%. Philadelphia (-40%), Arizona (-61%), Denver (-58%) and Seattle (-67%) all lost money.
Ownership Breakdown
The average top 200 lineup had a total ownership of 111.6%. The average lineup in the full field had 125.0%. The top 200 were 13.4 points lower. In Week 8 the top 200 were higher than the field, so two weeks have gone two ways. In both weeks, the stack decided the result.
Golden was 9.7% owned in the field and in 77.0% of the top 200. Love went from 2.8% to 75.5%, and Watson from 4.2% to 57.5%. Coleman went from 38.0% to 59.5%, Nacua from 28.5% to 47.5%, and Walker from 11.9% to 33.0%.
Smith-Njigba was in none of the top 200 lineups. Gibbs went from 28.2% to 1.5%, Kittle from 25.9% to 4.5%, and Antonio Williams from 20.0% to 5.5%.
Stacking Notes
- 197 of the top 200 paired the quarterback with at least one teammate. In the field, 87.6% did.
- 134 of the top 200 used two teammates with the quarterback, and 108 had Love, Golden and Watson together. Quarterback plus two receivers was on 9.1% of field lineups and returned +30%. It was the only stack type that made money. Quarterback plus one receiver was on 35.4% and returned -52%.
- 115 of the top 200 (57.5%) used a bring-back from the other team. In the field, 45.5% did. No bring-back type made money in the field. Receiver plus tight end did best at -24%.
- Love was the quarterback in 151 of the top 200. Shedeur Sanders had 31, C.J. Stroud 12, Dak Prescott and Joe Milton two each, and Brock Purdy and Bo Nix one each.
- Lineups that paid $6,000 at tight end, Kittle's price, were 24.3% of the field and returned -68%. Lineups with Dulcich at $3,100 were 15.8% and returned -65%.
High-Stakes, Small Field
The $400K Spy is single entry at $100, with 4,444 entries and $100K to first. The winner scored 205.18 with Shedeur Sanders and no Cleveland teammate. The rest was Lamb, Nacua, Golden, Stevenson, Coleman, Warren, Jordan Watkins and the Philadelphia defense. Seven of the nine came from Friday's DraftKings cash pool. Love was in eight of the top 10 lineups and Golden in eight. Nacua and Watson were in six each.
The Spy leaned harder into the chalk that lost. Coleman went from 38.0% in the Millionaire to 48.0% in the Spy. Singletary went from 27.1% to 35.7%, Dulcich from 23.3% to 31.8%, and Antonio Williams from 20.0% to 28.4%. The Spy used less of the stack that won. Love went from 2.8% to 2.0%, Watson from 4.2% to 3.0%, and Golden from 9.7% to 8.6%.
WHERE WE MISSED
Gibbs at $10,000. He was the center of our cash builds and scored 13.4. Friday expected about five targets, and he got one. Detroit threw 26 times and kicked four field goals. He returned -89% in the Millionaire.
Kenneth Walker III. Friday called him the popular back we were leaving out, and the second swap took Marks and Golden over Walker and Chism. Walker scored 39.3, caught four passes, and scored three touchdowns. Kansas City won 35 to 12. He was 11.9% owned and in 33.0% of the top 200.
The Colts stack. Jones went 20 of 34 for 180 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Warren scored 8.4, and Keenan Allen caught four of eight targets for 26 yards, 6.6 points. The bring-back side won: Lamb scored 37.5. Dallas won 27 to 23.
The San Francisco stack. Christian McCaffrey played, so the stack was on. Purdy scored 26.28 and McCaffrey 22.7 with a rushing and a receiving touchdown. Kittle scored 9.8. San Francisco threw 25 times in a 38 to 17 win. Purdy, McCaffrey and Kittle all lost money. The bring-back, Brock Bowers, caught seven of eight targets for 111 yards and a touchdown and scored 26.3.
The cheap receiver darts. The Sunday Update named Adonai Mitchell as a dart. He drew seven targets, caught none, and was on 14.4% of lineups. Malik Washington caught two of three targets for 21 yards at 11.3% owned.
What Friday Got Right
The late-swap stack was Love with Golden, with Stevenson as the bring-back. Friday called it the stack to switch into if you were behind after the early games. Love and Golden were the core of the winning lineup. Tucker Kraft, the third piece, scored 1.9. DeMario Douglas was on the Cheap WR list and was the bring-back in the winning lineup. Golden was also the cash receiver. The Spy winner used seven players from Friday's cash pool. Houston, our FanDuel defense, had eight sacks.
Line Calls, Graded
The slate average was 2.79 sacks per offense and 3.98 yards per carry (YPC) for running backs. A pass rush call hits when the sacks beat 2.79. For the lines Friday said would keep their quarterback clean, a hit is fewer than 2.79 sacks. A run blocking call hits when the backs beat 3.98 YPC in a good matchup, or fall below it in a tough one. The Line Calls tab above has every call. The full board is on the NFL line matchups page.
Eleven of the 14 line calls hit. All five pass rush calls hit, and the Texans call was the big one, with eight sacks in a 44 to 22 win. Friday said to keep the Patriots defense to a small share. It scored -1 point and returned -85%, and Love threw for 372 yards against it. The Rams run game missed the average by 0.02 YPC. Kyren Williams ran 15 times for 45 yards, and Blake Corum ran 11 times for 58 yards and a touchdown. Gibbs averaged 3.7 YPC. The Chargers backs beat the tough matchup, and Omarion Hampton ran 13 times for 60 yards.
BEST PIVOTS
Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,000) to Kenneth Walker III ($9,000). $1,000 less. 25.9 more points. Walker was 11.9% owned against 28.2% for Gibbs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,300) to Christian Watson ($7,500). $1,800 less. 21.0 more points. Watson was 4.2% owned against 22.4%.
Greg Dulcich ($3,100) to Darren Waller ($3,300). $200 more. 19.6 more points at 1.0% owned against 23.3%.
Malik Willis ($5,100) to Shedeur Sanders ($4,000). $1,100 less. 17.86 more points. Sanders was 4.7% owned against 14.3%.
George Kittle ($6,000) to Brock Bowers ($7,900). $1,900 more. 16.5 more points at 5.2% owned against 25.9%.
Antonio Williams ($4,100) to Efton Chism III ($3,600). $500 less. 10.4 more points at 2.1% owned against 20.0%.
New Orleans D/ST ($2,900) to Green Bay D/ST ($2,400). $500 less. 7 more points at 8.0% owned against 14.8%.
CARRY INTO WEEK 10
These roles grew in Week 9. Each line compares Week 9 with the player's average over the games he played in Weeks 6 to 8. One week is not a trend, so check the Week 10 injury report before you lean on any of them.
Puka Nacua, LAR WR: 19 targets, up from 9.7. That was 46.3% of the Rams targets. He caught 14 for 150 yards.
Darren Waller, CAR TE: 10 targets, up from 2.0. He caught eight for 90 yards and a touchdown. Carolina threw 39 times.
DeMario Douglas, NE WR: nine targets, up from 5.0, with A.J. Brown out. He caught five for 102 yards. New England threw 41 times while it chased Green Bay.
Devin Singletary, NYG RB: 21 carries, up from 4.5. He gained 31 yards, about 1.5 a carry.
Kaleb Johnson, GB RB: 14 carries for 68 yards. The AP reported that Josh Jacobs left in the first quarter with a broken finger. Jacobs ran four times for 5 yards, and Pierre Strong ran eight times for 22 yards. Check Jacobs' status before you build around the Green Bay backfield.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE RB: the AP reported that he left late in the third quarter with a knee injury. He had six carries for 32 yards and a touchdown catch. Check his status before you use him.
Jaylen Waddle, DEN WR: he had a concussion and did not return for the second half. Check his status before you play him or count on his targets going to someone else.
HOW TO THINK LIKE THIS MORE OFTEN
- At the top price, the catches hold the floor. Gibbs got 20 carries and one target, and scored 13.4. Walker got 18 carries and four catches, and scored 39.3. Before you pay $10,000 for a back, ask how many targets he will get in a game his team may lead.
- Pair the quarterback with two receivers when the targets go to two players. Golden and Watson drew 18 of Love's 29 throws. Quarterback plus two receivers returned +30% in the field. Every other stack type lost money.
- Low pass volume caps the tight end. San Francisco threw 25 times, and Kittle scored 9.8 at 25.9% owned. Miami threw 26 times, and Dulcich scored 3.4 at 23.3% owned. When a team may win big or score little, the tight end gets few chances.
- In cash, pay for target volume at receiver first. Nacua drew 19 targets, Lamb 16 and Golden 10. Four of six cash receivers beat their position average. One of four tight ends did.
- Total ownership does not pick the winner. The top 200 were 13.4 points lower than the field this week. In Week 8 they were 4.1 points higher. Both weeks, the winners stacked one passing game that most of the field did not.
Tools used for this review
Every number in this review comes off the BankrollSZN tools: the NFL Player ROI tool, the NFL Build ROI tool, this week's NFL DFS projections and the free NFL lineup optimizer.