NFL DFS Picks Week 9: Gibbs, Milton and Top DraftKings Plays

Joe Milton is starting for Philadelphia, and at $4,100 he pays for everything else in a cash build. That savings goes to Jahmyr Gibbs at $10,000, who is in almost every 50/50 lineup, and to Puka Nacua, who has the highest target share on the slate. With Milton at quarterback, Gibbs and Nacua fit together and there's still room for a tight end who earns targets. Dallas at Indianapolis has the highest total at 50.6, and San Francisco has the top team total at 29.4. Cleveland at New Orleans should run the most plays, about 125, and the Jets at Kansas City and Houston at the Chargers are the slowest at about 122. This is a Friday read, and some injury tags will change before Sunday. Some of the board moved since Wednesday. The injury section below has a tab for what changed. Wednesday's Matchups piece breaks down each game.

For cash, we're buying a high floor, a fair price and real touches, and we don't mind sharing those players with half the room. Last week Gibbs ran 23 times for 153 yards and a score, and Nacua caught 11 of 12 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. Our miss was a $7,000 receiver who caught one of six targets for eight yards, so this week our mid-priced receiver is Matthew Golden, who has 38 targets over his last three games. Tournaments work the other way, with ownership and stacking deciding the picks.

Slate Overview

Switch tabs for the injuries, what changed since Wednesday and the line matchups.

Full ranked board, updated all week: NFL injury report for DFS

High Impact Weather

Two late games have gusts worth a sentence. Arizona at Seattle should play through wind near 14 miles an hour with gusts around 25, and Green Bay at New England has gusts near 26 even though the steady wind sits around nine. Gusts like that can push deep balls off target, so we'd trim Gardner Minshew and Drew Lock in tournaments and keep Jordan Love stacks at a sensible share. It doesn't move Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who should see nine or ten targets, and it doesn't move any running back. Cleveland at New Orleans and Houston at the Chargers play indoors.

Kickoff forecasts for every game: NFL weather today

Pass Rush Mismatches

Cleveland's line is last in our ranks, and New Orleans brings a front ranked ninth with Chase Young at seven sacks and Carl Granderson at 5.5. Shedeur Sanders threw two passes in Week 8 and now gets this front if Deshaun Watson can't clear the concussion protocol. At $2,900 the Saints are our DraftKings defense.

Houston's front is fourth in our ranks, and Will Anderson has 7.5 sacks with Danielle Hunter adding 17 pressures. The Chargers line is 31st, and the Chargers have the second-lowest team total on the slate at 18.8. That's why the Texans are our FanDuel defense, and it's the reason Justin Herbert isn't in our cash pool.

Miami's line ranks 28th against a Detroit front ranked fifth, where Aidan Hutchinson has 23 pressures and Alim McNeill has 4.5 sacks. It's the one real worry with Malik Willis, who can buy time with his legs but will be under pressure all day.

Elsewhere, Denver's front, second in our ranks, gets a Carolina line ranked 26th, and Seattle's third-ranked front faces an Arizona line ranked 21st. We like both the Broncos and the Seahawks defenses in tournaments. On the other side, the Green Bay line ranks third against a New England front ranked 10th, the Kansas City line is 10th against a Jets front ranked 20th, and Las Vegas protects well enough against a 49ers front ranked 29th. Skip the Patriots, Jets and 49ers defenses. The full rankings sit on our NFL OL vs DL matchups page.

Run Blocking Matchups

The Rams have the best run blocking line in our ranks, and Rams backs average 5.0 yards a carry. Washington's run defense ranks 28th even while holding backs to 3.6. Kyren Williams ($7,600) should get about 14 carries, but Blake Corum takes about 10 of his own, so we only use Kyren Williams in tournaments.

San Francisco's line is sixth in run blocking and faces the worst run defense in our ranks, which allows 5.3 yards a carry to backs. Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) is questionable with a hamstring injury and should get about 14 carries if he plays. Whoever carries it here is a GPP piece, and the GPP section has the plan.

Detroit is seventh in run blocking against a Miami run defense ranked 25th, and Lions backs average 4.9 yards a carry. That's one more reason Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,000) anchors our cash builds.

The Chargers line is 29th in run blocking against a Houston run defense ranked 13th. Omarion Hampton ($4,800) should get about 11 carries with two targets on the second-lowest team total, so he needs a touchdown to matter.

Miami's run blocking ranks 26th, and Detroit's run defense is ninth. Ollie Gordon II ($5,600) should get about 16 carries but only two targets, so he's a touchdown-dependent dart.

Arizona has to run at the best run defense in our ranks, and Seattle holds backs to 3.3 yards a carry. Tyler Allgeier ($5,400) should get about 14 carries, but Arizona has the lowest team total on the slate. He's a dart at best.

CASH

QUARTERBACK

Each position below runs in three DraftKings price bands. Quarterback: pay up $6,000 and above, mid tier $5,000 to $5,900, cheap under $5,000.

Brock Purdy ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. He's our FanDuel quarterback. San Francisco has the top team total on the slate at 29.4, and he went 27 of 40 for 288 yards in Week 7 before the 49ers' week off. He should throw about 32 times and run four or five, and the line in front of him ranks second in our pass protection ranks. On DraftKings, $6,800 costs you too much of the Gibbs and Nacua money.

Jayden Daniels ($6,000 DK, $8,400 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. His legs give him a high floor. The books give him 6.5 rushing attempts, more than any other quarterback here, and he went 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6. Rams at Washington should run about 124 plays, two or three more than an average game. If you can't stomach Milton, Daniels is where we'd pay up.

Malik Willis ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD) - 5% projected cash ownership. He ran eight times for 37 yards and a score in Week 7, and the books still have him at 5.5 rushing attempts. He went 21 of 32 for 211 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Detroit pass rush is the problem, so he's a want behind Milton.

Daniel Jones ($4,700 DK, $6,400 FD) - 2% projected cash ownership. Indianapolis is about a four-point underdog in the highest-total game on the slate, so he should throw about 32 times. His last three games were sloppy, with five picks, and we'd rather use him in tournaments. The GPP section explains why.

Joe Milton ($4,100 DK, $6,300 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Our DraftKings quarterback. Tanner McKee is questionable with a rib injury and the passing line has moved to Milton at four books, so he gets the start. He should throw about 31 times and run about four times, and a quarterback who runs at this price has a floor most cheap passers don't. Philadelphia's 19.2 team total is low, and the passing yardage line is the lowest on the slate. A passable game is enough, since the $1,900 he saves over Daniels buys Gibbs and Nacua.

Drew Lock ($4,000) gets the Seattle start with Sam Darnold out, but he's questionable with an elbow injury, and Shedeur Sanders holds Cleveland's passing line while Deshaun Watson sits in the concussion protocol. We keep both out of cash for now.

RUNNING BACK

Pay up $8,000 and above, mid tier $6,000 to $7,900, cheap under $6,000.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($10,000 DK, $10,200 FD) - 97% projected cash ownership. He is the center of our cash builds. He ran 23 times for 153 yards and a score in Week 8 after 29 carries for 116 yards the week before. The books have him at 20.5 carries, the highest line on the slate, and we expect about 22 carries and five targets in a Detroit team total of 28.3. Nearly every 50/50 lineup will have him, and he's in ours.

Kenneth Walker III ($9,000 DK, $8,900 FD) - 44% projected cash ownership. He's the popular back we're leaving out. He ran 21 times for 69 yards and caught four passes in Week 8, and he should get 20 or 21 carries with Kansas City at a 27.6 team total. That's a fine role, but at $9,000 it costs you a receiver like Matthew Golden, and the second swap shows why we'd rather have that pair.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. Our favorite mid-priced back. He ran 22 times for 81 yards and a score in Week 8 and caught seven of his eight targets. The books set his carry line at 17.5, and we expect about 17 carries plus three or four targets. Denver at Carolina should run about 125 plays, three more than an average game, so the touches are there.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,100 DK, $6,400 FD) - 5% projected cash ownership. He ran 19 times for 82 yards last week and should get about 14 carries and three targets. TreVeyon Henderson is questionable with an illness, and if Henderson sits, Stevenson moves closer to 17 carries. He's a FanDuel value at $6,400.

Woody Marks ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. He's a core play now that David Montgomery is out. Marks ran 19 times for 66 yards in Week 7 before Houston's week off, and the books have him at 16.5 carries. He won't catch many passes, about two targets, so his day rides on the carries, and 16 or 17 of them at this price is one of the best running back values on the slate.

Jonah Coleman ($5,300 DK, $6,300 FD) - 4% projected cash ownership. He ran 11 times for 41 yards and a score in Week 8 and caught four of five targets for 63 yards. His carry line sits at 13.5, and he should get about 13 carries with RJ Harvey on injured reserve. Denver is a small road favorite in one of the faster games on the slate. If Marks doesn't fit your build, Coleman is the next back we'd try.

Elijah Mitchell ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD) - 2% projected cash ownership. Saquon Barkley is questionable with a hamstring injury, but the books still post a 13.5 carry line for Barkley, so we treat Barkley as playing. Elijah Mitchell should get about eight carries and four targets, and he caught four of six targets in Week 8. If Barkley sits, Elijah Mitchell moves to about 14 carries and becomes a cash play.

WIDE RECEIVER

Pay up $7,200 and above, mid tier $5,100 to $7,100, cheap under $5,100.

Puka Nacua ($8,800 DK, $9,200 FD) - 65% projected cash ownership. He's a core play. Nacua caught 11 of 12 targets for 80 yards and a score in Week 8, and with Davante Adams on injured reserve his 32.1% target share is the highest on the slate. He gets 31.8% of the Rams' air yards and has turned 135 air yards into 228 receiving yards over three weeks, so you're paying for catches. Expect 11 or 12 targets. Expect him in about two of every three cash lineups.

CeeDee Lamb ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD) - 40% projected cash ownership. If the salary works, we play him. He's seen 41 targets over the last three games and gets 42.2% of Dallas' air yards in the highest-total game on the slate. He also has 179 unrealized air yards, the number Wednesday's Matchups piece broke down. George Pickens is questionable with a hamstring injury, and if Pickens sits, Lamb's target share goes from 28.1% to 35.7%.

Matthew Golden ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD) - 16% projected cash ownership. Our mid-priced receiver. He drew 13, 12 and 13 targets the last three weeks and caught seven for 79 yards and a score in Week 8. Green Bay sends him 44.6% of its air yards, and his 324 unrealized air yards led Wednesday's list. Christian Watson is questionable with a rib injury, and if Christian Watson sits, Golden's share climbs to 32.1%. At $6,800 on FanDuel he's even easier to fit.

Jaylen Waddle ($5,700 DK, $6,000 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Seven, seven and six targets the last three games, and a touchdown in Week 8. He should see about seven targets at a 22.0% target share, and Denver at Carolina should be one of the faster games on the slate. He has 90 unrealized air yards, broken out in the closing block.

Antonio Williams ($4,100 DK, $5,500 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Terry McLaurin is on injured reserve, and Williams caught five of seven for 54 yards in Week 8. He gets 23.3% of Washington's air yards and should see about five targets in a game that runs two or three plays above average. At $4,100, our cheap receiver spots start with him.

Efton Chism III ($3,600 DK, $5,100 FD) - 14% projected cash ownership. He caught all five of his targets for 37 yards in Week 8 and should see four or five again. Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, and if A.J. Brown sits with his knee, Chism's target share goes to 13.5%. It's a short-area role, but at $3,600 the floor is fine.

TIGHT END

Pay up $6,100 and above, mid tier $4,300 to $6,000, cheap under $4,300.

Brock Bowers ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. He drew 10 targets for 92 yards in Week 8 and gets a third of the Raiders' air yards, 33.5%. He has 28 targets in three games, and we love the role, but $7,900 is a receiver price.

Tyler Warren ($4,600 DK, $5,400 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. Our tight end, and the one mid-priced tight end we'd defend. He drew 10 targets in Week 8, caught four for 18 yards, and has a 19.3% target share in the highest-total game on the slate. Indianapolis is an underdog and should throw a lot, and he costs only $1,400 more than Dalton Schultz. The third swap shows why we'd pay it.

Dalton Schultz ($3,200 DK, $5,100 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. He caught five of six for 45 yards in Week 7 before Houston's week off and should see about five targets. It's short work, 8.0% of the Texans' air yards. He's the punt if Warren doesn't fit.

Greg Dulcich ($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. He caught all five targets for 86 yards in Week 7 and four of six for 43 in Week 8. Miami sends him 22.9% of its air yards, a lot for a tight end at this price. He's the cheapest tight end we'd play, and the cheaper one on FanDuel.

DEFENSE

Pay up $3,200 and above, mid tier $2,600 to $3,100, cheap under $2,600.

Houston ($3,500 DK, $5,000 FD) - 7% projected cash ownership. Our FanDuel defense. The Chargers line ranks 31st, Will Anderson has 7.5 sacks, and the Chargers have the second-lowest team total on the slate. On DraftKings, the Saints are $600 cheaper.

New Orleans ($2,900 DK, $3,600 FD) - 6% projected cash ownership. Our DraftKings defense. Cleveland has the worst line in our ranks, and either Shedeur Sanders or a concussed Deshaun Watson takes the snaps. Chase Young has seven sacks, and the Saints are a three-point home favorite.

Philadelphia ($2,500 DK, $4,400 FD) - 5% projected cash ownership. The cheapest defense we'd use. The Giants' 20.6 team total is modest, but there's no pass rush edge here, so it's a pure salary play.

The Swaps

First, quarterback. Joe Milton and CeeDee Lamb cost $12,400. Jayden Daniels and Rashee Rice cost the same $12,400. The Milton side scores about a point more, and the two floors come out almost even, because Lamb's 41 targets in three weeks give that side a steady base. Daniels runs more than Milton, but Rice drew eight targets in Week 8, and Lamb is in the highest-total game on the slate. Take Milton and Lamb.

Second, running back. Kenneth Walker III and Efton Chism III cost $12,600. Woody Marks and Matthew Golden cost $12,700. The Marks side scores more than a point higher for $100 and has the higher floor. Walker gets more carries than Marks, but not enough to cover a gap of $3,300, and Golden's 38 targets in three weeks are worth more than Chism's short role. Take Marks and Golden, and let the field have Walker.

Third, tight end. Tyler Warren and Antonio Williams cost $8,700. Dalton Schultz and Jaylen Waddle cost $8,900. The Warren side scores a little more for $200 less, and both floors land in the same place. Warren drew 10 targets last week, and Schultz hasn't seen more than six in any of his last two games. Take Warren and Antonio Williams. On FanDuel the gap between Warren and Schultz is only $300, so Warren is an easy call there too.

GPP

Duplication

Dallas at Indianapolis has the highest total on the slate and should run about 125 plays, three more than an average game (NFL pace of play). The field will build it through Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK, $8,000 FD, 7% projected GPP ownership) and CeeDee Lamb ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD, 21% projected GPP ownership). Expensive players tend to draw more of the field than we project, so Lamb will likely come in higher. We'd come at it from the Colts side. Daniel Jones ($4,700 DK, $6,400 FD, 3% projected GPP ownership) threw 42 times in Week 6 and should throw about 32 times as a four-point underdog. Pair him with Tyler Warren ($4,600 DK, $5,400 FD, 8% projected GPP ownership) and Keenan Allen ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD, 4% projected GPP ownership), who caught all seven of his targets for 67 yards last week. That's a quarterback with two of his own pass catchers. Bring it back with Lamb. The story is Indianapolis throwing all afternoon to keep up.

Uncertainty

San Francisco has the top team total on the slate, and three of its playmakers are questionable: Christian McCaffrey (hamstring), Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring). The game should run about one play more than average. If McCaffrey ($8,000 DK, $8,700 FD, 20% projected GPP ownership) plays, stack him with Brock Purdy ($6,800 DK, $8,500 FD, 9% projected GPP ownership) and George Kittle ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD, 10% projected GPP ownership). McCaffrey caught nine passes in Week 6 and six in Week 7, so he counts as a pass catcher in this stack. Kittle caught eight of 10 for 88 yards in Week 7, and his target share goes from 18.4% to 21.4% if Evans sits. If McCaffrey sits, Kaelon Black ($5,500 DK, $5,600 FD, 2% projected GPP ownership) moves to about 15 carries against the worst run defense in our ranks. He ran 12 times for 63 yards and a score in Week 7. Brock Bowers ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD, 9% projected GPP ownership) is the bring-back if the Raiders chase all day as 8.5-point underdogs.

Late Swap

Houston at the Chargers and Las Vegas at San Francisco kick off at 4:05, and Green Bay at New England and Arizona at Seattle at 4:25. San Francisco and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,300 DK, $9,500 FD, 18% projected GPP ownership) make the late window crowded, so our pivot is Green Bay at New England. It should run about one play more than an average game, and Jordan Love ($6,300 DK, $7,800 FD, 4% projected GPP ownership) has thrown 41, 45 and 41 passes the last three weeks. He went 30 of 41 for 288 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8, and he should throw about 37 times, the most on the slate, behind a line that ranks third. Pair him with Matthew Golden ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD, 12% projected GPP ownership) and Tucker Kraft ($5,500 DK, $5,500 FD, 3% projected GPP ownership), who scored in Weeks 7 and 8. Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,100 DK, $6,400 FD, 6% projected GPP ownership) brings it back. The gusts in Foxborough are the risk. It's the stack to switch into if you're behind after the early games.

Building It

Joe Milton, Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love can all win you a tournament, so give no single quarterback more than 20% to 30% of your entries. Hold each defense to about 20%, and run randomness near 30% so your lineups don't all look alike. We disagree with the field most at running back. The crowd loves Kenneth Walker III even though he catches three or four passes a game, and we want more Woody Marks than the field, with David Montgomery out.

CHEAP WR

Our filter: receivers under $5,000 on DraftKings or at $6,000 or less on FanDuel, with five or more expected targets. This list leaves out plenty of cheap receivers on purpose. Antonio Williams and Jaylen Waddle also pass the filter, and you'll find them in cash.

DraftKings & FanDuel

KC Concepcion ($4,600 DK, $5,600 FD) - 8% projected GPP ownership. He caught eight of 10 for 129 yards in Week 7, then saw only four targets last week. He gets 25.8% of Cleveland's air yards, and if Denzel Boston sits with his calf injury, his target share goes to 24.7%. Cleveland at New Orleans should be the fastest game on the slate, three or four plays above average.

Xavier Worthy ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD) - 7% projected GPP ownership. Six targets in each of the last two games turned into 24 yards, and he still gets 30.3% of Kansas City's air yards. That gap is a buy at this price. Kansas City has a 27.6 team total, and he should see five or six targets.

Malik Washington ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD) - 7% projected GPP ownership. He caught five of six for 40 yards and a score in Week 8, and he has an 18.8% target share. Miami is a six-point underdog to Detroit, so the volume should be there even if the efficiency isn't.

DeMario Douglas ($4,800 DK, $5,400 FD) - 4% projected GPP ownership. He caught all three of his targets for 76 yards and a score in Week 8. If A.J. Brown sits with his knee, DeMario Douglas becomes New England's lead receiver at a 21.3% target share. Figure about five targets.

FanDuel Only (over $5,000 on DraftKings)

Josh Downs ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD) - 4% projected GPP ownership. He caught four of five for 23 yards and a score in Week 8 and should see five or six targets. Indianapolis trailing in the highest-total game on the slate is the path to volume.

Devaughn Vele ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD) - 3% projected GPP ownership. He caught all five of his targets for 54 yards and a score in Week 7, and he got 34.8% of the Saints' air yards in Weeks 6 and 7. He should see about five targets in the fastest game on the slate, though the books haven't posted a receiving line for him yet.

Unrealized Air Yards

Unrealized air yards are how far downfield a receiver's targets traveled minus the yards he actually caught. Matthew Golden, Denzel Boston and CeeDee Lamb led Wednesday's list. These two come next once you check the context.

Michael Wilson, Cardinals: 204 unrealized. Week 6: seven targets, 86 air yards, 32 receiving yards. Week 7: eight targets, 76 air yards, 55 receiving yards. Week 8: 15 targets, 240 air yards, 111 receiving yards. He gets 44.1% of Arizona's air yards, and his biggest week came in the game Gardner Minshew split. His ribs are the risk, and Arizona has the lowest team total on the slate.

Jaylen Waddle, Broncos: 90 unrealized. Call him our positive regression candidate. Week 6: seven targets, 49 air yards, 24 receiving yards. Week 7: seven targets, 104 air yards, 48 receiving yards. Week 8: six targets, 48 air yards, 39 receiving yards. The gap is steady across all three games, he gets 42.8% of Denver's air yards, and at $5,700 he costs $1,000 less than Michael Wilson.

RANKINGS

Tools used for this slate

Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN tools: this week's NFL DFS projections, the free NFL lineup optimizer, and the live NFL odds and totals.