Model Track Record
Live picks since 01/01/2026, last graded 11/13/2026, 7:05 AM CT
569 live picks graded across 5 sports. NBA player props beat the closing line on 68 of 98 picks (average +2.62 points, t 3.98). Every other family has not proven an edge either way, and the luck band on its ROI says why.
| Sport | Market | Record | Units | ROI (luck band) | CLV picks | Avg CLV (pts) | Beat close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | All markets | 192-179-2 | +10.00u | +2.7% ± 10.4% | 282 | +0.18 | 113 of 239 | No proof yet |
| Moneyline | 24-31 | +0.53u | +1.0% ± 31.6% | 30 | -0.04 | 13 of 27 | No proof yet | |
| Run line | 54-46 | +5.77u | +5.8% ± 20.8% | 99 | +0.67 | 40 of 79 | No proof yet | |
| Totals | 114-102-2 | +3.69u | +1.7% ± 12.9% | 153 | -0.10 | 60 of 133 | No proof yet | |
| NBA | All markets | 67-66 | +0.58u | +0.4% ± 17.6% | 123 | +2.18 | 77 of 118 | Beats the close |
| Moneyline | 3-8 | -4.38u | -39.8% ± 62.7% | 11 | +0.36 | 6 of 10 | Too early | |
| Player props | 56-51 | +4.67u | +4.4% ± 19.6% | 101 | +2.62 | 68 of 98 | Beats the close | |
| Spread | 8-7 | +0.29u | +1.9% ± 51.0% | 11 | +0.00 | 3 of 10 | Too early | |
| NFL | All markets | 20-22 | +0.50u | +1.2% ± 34.8% | 29 | -0.20 | 14 of 28 | Too early |
| Moneyline | 5-6 | +2.94u | +26.7% ± 91.8% | 11 | -0.88 | 4 of 11 | Too early | |
| Totals | 15-16 | -2.44u | -7.9% ± 34.8% | 18 | +0.22 | 10 of 17 | Too early | |
| NHL | All markets | 2-3 | -1.09u | -21.7% ± 95.9% | 5 | +0.53 | 2 of 5 | Too early |
| Moneyline | 0-1 | -1.00u | -100.0% | 1 | -0.04 | 0 of 1 | Too early | |
| Puck line | 2-2 | -0.09u | -2.1% ± 113.0% | 4 | +0.68 | 2 of 4 | Too early | |
| UFC | All markets | 4-12 | +1.20u | +7.5% ± 110.8% | 16 | +1.80 | 12 of 16 | Too early |
| Method and props | 3-11 | +1.90u | +13.6% ± 126.1% | 14 | +1.32 | 10 of 14 | Too early | |
| Moneyline | 1-1 | -0.70u | -35.1% ± 129.8% | 2 | +5.13 | 2 of 2 | Too early |
Flat 1 unit per pick. MLB counts the v2 game sim only (live picks from 05/14/2026). Luck band = 2 standard errors of ROI. Avg CLV = no-vig closing chance of our side minus no-vig chance at the pick, in percentage points. Verdict from the CLV t-stat (2 or more beats the close). To see how wide the luck band is for your own bets, try the Bankroll Simulator.
Past results do not promise future results. For entertainment and education only, not financial advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Why we grade on closing line value, not only on wins
Results carry a lot of luck. A pick at -110 has a standard deviation of about 1 unit, so after 100 picks the luck band is about plus or minus 19 units. A model with a 3 percent edge expects only 3 units in that time. A winning record over a few hundred picks does not prove an edge, and a losing record does not disprove one.
Closing line value (CLV) measures something else: did the market move toward our side between the time we posted the pick and the start of the game? The closing line holds the most information the market will have. A model that keeps beating it is finding value before the market does. Each pick gives a small, low noise reading, so CLV can show an edge in a few hundred picks.
How to read the table
Units and ROI use a flat 1 unit stake on every live pick. The number after the plus or minus sign is the luck band: two standard errors of the ROI. If the band crosses zero, the result does not prove anything yet, in either direction.
Avg CLV is the no-vig closing probability of our side minus the no-vig probability when we posted the pick, in percentage points. Beat close counts the picks where the market moved toward us. The verdict uses the t-stat of the average CLV: 2 or more is Beats the close, minus 2 or less is Behind the close, and anything between is No proof yet. Fewer than 30 graded CLV picks is Too early.
What counts and what does not
Only live picks count. Paper picks, which a model posts while it is under test, are not in this table. Postponed games and voided props are left out. A pick whose line moved to a different number before the close has no CLV reading unless the model can price both numbers, so the CLV pick count can be lower than the total.
Frequently asked questions
What is closing line value in sports betting?
The difference between the price you bet and the final price before the game starts. If you bet a side at a 50 percent no-vig chance and it closes at 52 percent, you beat the close by 2 points. Bettors who beat the close over many bets tend to win over time, because the closing line is the sharpest price the market makes.
How many bets does it take to prove a betting model works?
On results alone, thousands. For a 2 percent edge at -110 it takes about 9,000 bets before the expected profit is two standard deviations above zero. Closing line value has much less noise per bet, so it can show an edge in a few hundred bets.
Does BankrollSZN hide losing picks?
No. Every live pick in every model family is in this table, winning or losing, and the table updates after each day's grading.