UFC Fight Sim
Saturday, October 17
Every fight on the card played 4,000 times. You get each fighter's chance to win by KO, submission or decision, the round the fight ends in, and the prices at DraftKings and FanDuel that sit above our fair odds.
11 more players on today's board
Create a free account to see every fight sim on the card. No credit card, it takes about 10 seconds.
How the UFC fight sim works
Each fight becomes a table of outcomes: winner, method and round. The moneyline, method of victory, round betting and goes-the-distance prices from DraftKings and FanDuel set that table after we remove the vig.
The moneyline is sharpened slightly because closing favorites have won more often than their price implied. We fit that on 2019 to 2022 UFC fights and checked it on 2023 to 2026.
When a fight has no line yet, the win chance comes from fighter Elo and the method split comes from each fighter's finishing record.
How to read the betting edges
An edge is a price above our fair odds. Plus 5 percent EV means a 100 dollar bet returns 5 dollars on average if our probability is right.
Our probabilities come mostly from the market, so large edges are rare. They show up most often where one book is slow to move or a prop is priced off a different method split.
Frequently asked questions
How many times is each fight simulated?
4,000 times per fight on every refresh, about every 30 minutes in fight week.
Which sportsbooks are compared?
DraftKings and FanDuel.
Is the sim free?
The first two fights are free. A free account unlocks the full card.