NBA Monte Carlo Sim

NBA Monte Carlo game simulations

Every NBA game on the slate is simulated 20,000 times on the server and refreshed every 30 minutes on game days. For each game you get the model score for both teams, a win chance for each side, a spread cover chance and an over chance against the posted line, the chance of overtime, and the gap to the de-vigged FanDuel price. It is free with an account.

Each card also lists the rotation players who are out for each team and a short-handed flag, because in the NBA who plays moves the number more than anything else.

What goes into the model

Each team gets an offense and a defense rating from its points scored and allowed, refit every run with recent games counting more and last season counting less. On top of that sit home court, back-to-backs and the value of missing players. A player's value is his game score per minute over his recent games, times the minutes he usually plays. When a rotation player is ruled out, his value comes off his team. The model does not read the betting line.

Tested on every game of the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons, the availability term cut the model's moneyline log loss from 0.601 to 0.591. The closing line was still better at 0.581, which is why the published price leans on the market.

The BankrollSZN price and when a pick is made

The win, cover and over numbers on each card are 80 percent the de-vigged market and 20 percent the sim, the same blend as the MLB, NFL and NHL sims. On 2,630 held-out games that blend beat the closing moneyline (Brier score 0.1989 against 0.1991). A moneyline pick needs the blended price to beat the market by 3 percent or more, at odds between -180 and +400.

Picks are made inside 90 minutes of tip, after the injury report settles, and written once at the price taken. Spread and total picks are simulated and graded but not published, because neither beat the closing line in testing.

What the History tab is for

Every published pick is graded against the final score, with closing line value against the last FanDuel price before tip. The History tab shows the record by bet type, the running profit and loss at one unit per bet, and the results by edge size.

Frequently asked questions