NFL Player Index: Player vs System
2026 season, updated Oct 11, 11:17 AM CT
The top difference maker is Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), worth +11.0 PPR points per game above an average player in an average offense. 56 players grade as difference makers and 7 as system products. The head coach who lifts pass catchers the most is Zac Taylor (+0.9 per game).
Top 15% player value. The production follows the player.
Jahmyr GibbsRBvalue+11.0
Bijan RobinsonRBvalue+10.2
Christian McCaffreyRBvalue+9.9
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRvalue+9.6
Puka NacuaWRvalue+8.440%+ of his value comes from the QB and coach. Real production, but tied to the offense.
Mike GesickiTEsystem56%
Jalen McMillanWRsystem55%Jake TongesTEsystem53%
Devaughn VeleWRsystem50%Jameson WilliamsWRsystem48%Value above the system is up 2.5+ PPR per game from last season. Players 25 or under are tagged Up-and-comer.
Chuba HubbardRBtrend+4.7
Matthew GoldenWRtrend+4.6Jalen CokerWRtrend+3.6Brian RobinsonRBtrend+3.6
Roman WilsonWRtrend+3.0Above average player value, held down by strong teammates at his position.
AJ BarnerTEdrag-3.9Cooper KuppWRdrag-3.7Rashid ShaheedWRdrag-3.7Tory HortonWRdrag-3.6
Justice HillRBdrag-3.6Value above the system is down 3+ PPR per game from last season.
Quentin JohnstonWRtrend-5.6Kyle PittsTEtrend-4.8
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RBtrend-4.2
Saquon BarkleyRBtrend-4.1Colby ParkinsonTEtrend-3.9| Player | Role | Route profile | Player value | System lift | Teammate drag | Expected | PPR/g | Vs role | Trend | Archetype |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | RB1 | - | +11.0 | +1.0 | +0.5 | 21.2 | 29.0 | +12.9 | +0.9 | Difference maker |
| Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | RB1 | - | +10.2 | +0.8 | -0.7 | 18.9 | 26.4 | +11.8 | +0.9 | Difference maker |
| Christian McCaffreyRB SF | RB1 | - | +9.9 | +0.2 | +0.3 | 19.1 | 18.5 | +4.0 | -4.9 | Difference maker |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +9.6 | +2.3 | -1.1 | 18.3 | 29.2 | +13.2 | +2.2 | Difference maker |
| Puka NacuaWR LA | WR1 | Mixed | +8.4 | +1.4 | +1.3 | 18.6 | 20.1 | +4.4 | -3.3 | Difference maker |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | WR1 | Mixed | +8.3 | +3.0 | -1.7 | 17.0 | 22.8 | +7.1 | +1.1 | Difference maker |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | WR2 | Mixed | +8.1 | +2.3 | -1.7 | 16.2 | 15.1 | +3.3 | -3.6 | Difference maker |
 Jonathan TaylorRB IND | RB1 | - | +8.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | 17.7 | 21.6 | +6.8 | -0.6 | Difference maker |
 CeeDee LambWR DAL | WR1 | Mixed | +7.9 | +1.7 | +0.1 | 17.1 | 28.1 | +11.5 | +5.6 | Difference maker |
| Derrick HenryRB BAL | RB1 | - | +7.6 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 22.7 | +8.2 | +2.4 | Difference maker |
 Nico CollinsWR HOU | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +6.9 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 14.7 | 26.0 | +10.1 | +1.9 | Difference maker |
 Kenneth Walker IIIRB KC | RB1 | - | +6.7 | -0.1 | +0.7 | 16.0 | 27.5 | +12.7 | +6.5 | Difference maker |
| Kyren WilliamsRB LA | RB1 | - | +6.7 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 16.0 | 22.4 | +7.6 | +2.8 | Difference maker |
 Trey McBrideTE ARI | TE1 | Underneath TE | +6.7 | +2.2 | -1.1 | 15.3 | 17.3 | +6.7 | -1.6 | Difference maker |
| Chris OlaveWR NO | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +6.5 | +1.9 | -0.4 | 15.4 | 22.5 | +6.1 | +1.3 | Difference maker |
| Zay FlowersWR BAL | WR1 | Mixed | +6.4 | +0.6 | -0.6 | 13.9 | 22.4 | +7.7 | +1.6 | Difference maker |
| Davante AdamsWR LA | WR2 | Outside / vertical | +6.3 | +1.4 | +1.0 | 16.1 | 18.3 | +5.1 | +0.3 | Difference maker |
 Brock BowersTE LV | TE1 | Underneath TE | +6.2 | +0.3 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 24.1 | +12.8 | +1.4 | Difference maker |
| Tee HigginsWR CIN | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +6.2 | +2.3 | -2.3 | 13.7 | 17.8 | +3.3 | +0.6 | Difference maker |
 Justin JeffersonWR MIN | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +5.8 | +0.3 | -1.5 | 12.0 | 15.0 | +2.0 | +1.1 | Difference maker |
 James CookRB BUF | RB1 | - | +5.6 | +0.1 | +0.7 | 15.0 | 16.6 | +1.8 | -1.2 | Difference maker |
| Drake LondonWR ATL | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +5.4 | -1.0 | +1.4 | 13.3 | 14.4 | -0.6 | -2.0 | Difference maker |
 A.J. BrownWR NE | WR3 | Outside / vertical | +5.2 | +1.0 | -2.2 | 11.6 | 5.6 | +1.3 | -2.6 | Difference maker |
 De'Von AchaneRB MIA | RB1 | - | +5.0 | -0.2 | +1.4 | 14.8 | 8.2 | -7.0 | -5.9 | Difference maker |
| George KittleTE SF | TE1 | Underneath TE | +4.9 | +1.9 | -1.6 | 12.8 | 16.1 | +5.8 | +0.9 | Difference maker |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +4.9 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 11.8 | 18.6 | +4.3 | +2.6 | Difference maker |
| Rashee RiceWR KC | WR1 | Slot / underneath | +4.9 | +0.7 | -0.8 | 12.3 | 12.7 | -1.8 | -3.8 | Difference maker |
| Christian WatsonWR GB | WR2 | Outside / vertical | +4.8 | +0.5 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 19.3 | +7.8 | +1.9 | Difference maker |
 Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | WR1 | Mixed | +4.7 | 0.0 | +0.9 | 13.1 | 15.8 | +0.1 | -0.1 | Difference maker |
| Ashton JeantyRB LV | RB1 | - | +4.7 | +0.2 | +0.5 | 14.1 | 18.5 | +3.3 | +1.1 | Difference maker |
| DeVonta SmithWR PHI | WR1 | Mixed | +4.6 | +1.0 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 16.2 | +0.6 | +0.7 | Difference maker |
| Chase BrownRB CIN | RB1 | - | +4.6 | +0.2 | +0.9 | 14.3 | 14.5 | -0.5 | -1.5 | Difference maker |
| Tyreek HillWR MIA | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +4.6 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 10.9 | - | -0.1 | +0.1 | Difference maker |
 D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | RB1 | - | +4.5 | +0.3 | -1.0 | 12.5 | 15.9 | +2.3 | 0.0 | Difference maker |
 Stefon DiggsWR WAS | WR1 | Mixed | +4.5 | -0.6 | +1.1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | -1.5 | +0.1 | Difference maker |
| George PickensWR DAL | WR2 | Mixed | +4.3 | +1.7 | -1.1 | 12.4 | 10.1 | -1.9 | -4.0 | Difference maker |
| DK MetcalfWR PIT | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +4.2 | +0.2 | -1.2 | 10.8 | 10.8 | -3.0 | -1.3 | Difference maker |
| Josh JacobsRB GB | RB1 | - | +4.2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | 14.9 | - | 0.0 | -1.2 | Difference maker |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | WR2 | Slot / underneath | +4.1 | +1.9 | -1.9 | 11.6 | 14.5 | +3.3 | +0.8 | Difference maker |
| Malik NabersWR NYG | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +4.1 | +0.1 | -0.6 | 11.1 | 11.2 | -2.9 | -1.4 | Difference maker |
| Mike EvansWR SF | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +4.0 | +1.9 | -1.9 | 11.6 | 12.6 | -1.9 | +0.8 | Difference maker |
| David MontgomeryRB HOU | RB1 | - | +4.0 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 11.9 | 11.1 | -2.3 | -1.3 | Difference maker |
| Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | RB1 | - | +4.0 | -0.2 | +2.6 | 15.1 | 20.5 | +4.2 | +1.5 | Difference maker |
 Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | WR2 | Mixed | +3.8 | +0.3 | -2.1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | +0.9 | +0.3 | Difference maker |
| Sam LaPortaTE DET | TE1 | Underneath TE | +3.7 | +3.0 | -3.2 | 11.0 | 14.2 | +4.4 | +0.6 | Difference maker |
 Jaylen WaddleWR DEN | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +3.7 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 9.7 | 11.0 | -1.8 | -0.4 | Difference maker |
| Michael WilsonWR ARI | WR1 | Outside / vertical | +3.7 | +2.2 | -2.0 | 11.4 | 14.2 | +0.1 | 0.0 | Difference maker |
| Keenan AllenWR IND | WR2 | Mixed | +3.7 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | -1.0 | -1.3 | Difference maker |
| Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | WR3 | Mixed | +3.5 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 10.3 | 9.1 | +3.3 | -2.1 | Difference maker |
| Dallas GoedertTE PHI | TE1 | Underneath TE | +3.5 | +1.2 | -2.0 | 10.2 | 12.6 | +2.1 | -1.6 | Difference maker |
| Travis KelceTE KC | TE1 | Underneath TE | +3.4 | +0.7 | -0.6 | 11.1 | 13.2 | +3.2 | +0.3 | Difference maker |
| Breece HallRB NYJ | RB1 | - | +3.4 | -0.2 | +1.0 | 12.9 | 14.2 | -0.6 | +0.7 | Difference maker |
| Terry McLaurinWR WAS | WR2 | Outside / vertical | +3.4 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 10.9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | -1.2 | Difference maker |
| Bucky IrvingRB TB | RB1 | - | +3.4 | +0.1 | -0.1 | 12.0 | 11.8 | -2.3 | -1.5 | Difference maker |
 Wan'Dale RobinsonWR TEN | WR2 | Mixed | +3.3 | -0.9 | -0.8 | 9.2 | 10.1 | +0.8 | -1.3 | Difference maker |
 Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | TE1 | Underneath TE | +3.3 | +0.8 | -0.7 | 10.8 | 12.6 | +2.6 | -0.2 | Difference maker |
| Jameson WilliamsWR DET | WR2 | Outside / vertical | +3.2 | +3.0 | -3.4 | 10.3 | 9.7 | -1.0 | -1.8 | System product |
| Tyler WarrenTE IND | TE1 | Underneath TE | +3.2 | +0.3 | -0.8 | 10.2 | 12.1 | +2.2 | -0.5 | Neutral |
| Chuba HubbardRB CAR | RB1 | - | +3.2 | -0.1 | +1.7 | 13.5 | 19.8 | +4.1 | +4.7 | Rising |
| Jordan AddisonWR MIN | WR2 | Outside / vertical | +3.2 | +0.5 | -2.1 | 9.1 | 8.3 | -1.0 | -1.2 | Blocked by teammates |
Which systems lift their players
PPR per game each head coach and quarterback adds for every pass catcher, since 2021.
Head coach
Quarterback
WR1 production by head coach
Average WR1 season under each coach since 2021 (3+ seasons). Vs role compares with the average WR1. Share is the WR1's share of team targets.
| Coach | Seasons | PPR/g | System | Vs role | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean McVay | 5 | 21.6 | +1.3 | +5.0 | 29% |
| Zac Taylor | 5 | 19.1 | +2.0 | +3.9 | 31% |
| Mike McDaniel | 3 | 18.8 | -0.3 | +4.5 | 35% |
| Mike McCarthy | 4 | 18.4 | +1.0 | +2.4 | 30% |
| Kevin O'Connell | 4 | 18.1 | +1.1 | +3.0 | 31% |
| Brandon Staley | 3 | 18.0 | +0.3 | +2.8 | 25% |
| Dan Campbell | 5 | 17.9 | +2.9 | +1.5 | 34% |
| DeMeco Ryans | 3 | 16.4 | +0.4 | +3.0 | 21% |
| Todd Bowles | 4 | 15.4 | +0.4 | +1.2 | 21% |
| Nick Sirianni | 5 | 15.4 | +1.2 | +1.1 | 31% |
| Andy Reid | 4 | 15.3 | +0.7 | -0.7 | 22% |
| Kyle Shanahan | 5 | 15.1 | +1.2 | +1.1 | 27% |
Regular season games since 2021, recent seasons weighted more. Route profiles use 2021 to 2025 targeted routes. Model v1.4.
What the NFL Player Index measures
Every fantasy point a receiver or running back scores comes from two places: the player and the offense around him. The Player Index splits the two. Each game is credited to the player, the starting quarterback, the head coach, the opposing defense and the teammates who compete for the same touches. A ridge regression across every regular season game since 2021 estimates how much of the production belongs to each one.
Player value is fantasy points per game above an average player in an average offense. System lift is what the current quarterback and head coach add on top. Teammate drag is what strong teammates at the same position take away.
Difference makers vs system products
A difference maker produces in any offense. A system product produces because of the quarterback and the scheme around him. When a system product changes teams or loses his quarterback, his production usually falls. When a difference maker moves, it usually follows him.
The Sean McVay offense is a good test. Cooper Kupp scored 25.9 PPR points per game in 2021, and the model credits 16.6 of that to Kupp and only 1.4 to the Rams system. Puka Nacua took over the role and the model credits him with 13.9 above the system in 2025. Receivers who left the Rams, such as Robert Woods and Van Jefferson, fell to near or below zero above the system on new teams.
Role tiers and route profiles
Each player season gets a role tier: WR1, WR2 or WR3, TE1 or TE2, RB1 or RB2, ranked by targets or touches per game. Value vs role compares a player with the average player in the same tier, so a WR2 who outplays most WR1s stands out.
The route profile shows where a receiver earns his targets: outside and vertical routes, slot and underneath routes, or a mix. It comes from the route run on each targeted pass. It describes the route tree, not where the player lines up before the snap.
How accurate the model is
We tested the model on the 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons without letting it see the season it graded. For receivers it predicted season fantasy points per game with an average error of 3.11, against 3.23 for last season's average pulled toward the league mean. For receivers who changed teams the gap was larger: 3.39 against 3.61. Removing the quarterback and coach terms raised the error for team changers to 3.62, which shows the system part carries real information.
Frequently asked questions
What is a system product in fantasy football?
A player whose production depends heavily on his quarterback and coach. On this page, a system product gets 40% or more of his value from the system and scores 10+ PPR points per game over his last 8 games.
How often does the Player Index update?
Twice a week during the season, after the weekly player stats load on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Does the index predict next week?
No. It is a ranking of players and offenses built from full seasons. Use it to judge who is real and who is borrowing production from the offense. Use the NFL projections for weekly points.
Why is a star listed as Blocked by teammates?
His player value is above average, but strong teammates at the same position take a large share of the targets or touches. A trade or an injury to one of those teammates can free him up.
Is this tool free?
Yes. The full page is free with no account.