NBA Player Index: Player vs System
Through the 2025-26 season. Model updated 10/20/2026, 12:59 PM CT
The top difference maker is Nikola Jokic (DEN), worth +31.5 DK points per 36 minutes above an average player on an average team. 70 players grade as difference makers and 30 as system products. The biggest step-up when the star sits is Daniss Jenkins (+21.3 DK points per game without Cade Cunningham).
Top 15% player value. The production follows the player to any team.
Nikola Jokicvalue+31.5
Victor Wembanyamavalue+27.8
Giannis Antetokounmpovalue+26.9
Luka Doncicvalue+25.4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexandervalue+19.720+ DK points per game, but most of it comes from minutes and the team, not per-minute skill. Real production, tied to the role.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker34.9 DK/gDyson Daniels33.6 DK/g
Norman Powell32.9 DK/g
Jaime Jaquez Jr.30.1 DK/gAndrew Wiggins30.0 DK/gValue above the system is up 3+ DK points per 36 minutes from last season.
Micah Pottertrend+8.9
Kyshawn Georgetrend+7.5Ajay Mitchelltrend+6.8
Andrew Nembhardtrend+6.3
Reed Sheppardtrend+5.9Strong per-minute player held back by teammates: short minutes or heavy competition for touches.
Andre Drummond17.2 min
Goga Bitadze15.9 minJalen Smith22.7 min
Mitchell Robinson20.3 min
Daniel Gafford22.9 minValue above the system is down 3+ DK points per 36 minutes from last season.
Jordan Clarksontrend-8.0
John Collinstrend-7.9Khris Middletontrend-6.3Tyus Jonestrend-6.2
Miles Bridgestrend-5.8DK points per game in games the team's top player missed, minus games the star played. 5+ games without.
Daniss Jenkins+21.3 (18g)Branden Carlson+18.5 (6g)
Josh Minott+18.1 (10g)Bogdan Bogdanovic+16.7 (10g)
Gui Santos+16.4 (35g)
Maxime Raynaud+16.2 (63g)Changed teams since the last game played. System lift and expected points use the new team.
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL to MIA, +1.7Anthony DavisDAL to WSH, -1.0
LaMelo BallCHA to MIN, +0.0
Kawhi LeonardLAC to TOR, -0.1
LeBron JamesLAL to PHI, -0.5Jaylen BrownBOS to PHI, -0.5| Player | Player value | System lift | Teammate drag | Expected /36 | DK /36 | Min | Usage | Trend | Archetype |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola JokicC DEN | +31.5 | +0.4 | -0.8 | 66.5 | 68.3 | 34.9 | 30% | -0.5 | Difference maker |
| Victor WembanyamaF SA | +27.8 | +1.1 | -1.8 | 62.6 | 65.2 | 29.1 | 33% | +5.3 | Difference maker |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF MIA (from MIL) | +26.9 | +1.7 | -0.1 | 63.9 | 63.1 | 28.9 | 37% | +2.0 | Difference maker |
| Luka DoncicG LAL | +25.4 | -1.1 | -2.5 | 57.2 | 61.4 | 35.8 | 38% | +4.7 | Difference maker |
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG OKC | +19.7 | +0.3 | -2.0 | 53.4 | 54.8 | 33.3 | 34% | -0.6 | Difference maker |
| Joel EmbiidC PHI | +19.5 | -0.5 | -2.2 | 52.2 | 52.2 | 31.5 | 34% | -0.1 | Difference maker |
| Anthony DavisF WSH (from DAL) | +18.1 | -1.0 | -1.7 | 50.9 | 50.8 | 31.3 | 28% | -2.8 | Difference maker |
| Jayson TatumF BOS | +17.1 | -0.5 | -2.3 | 49.7 | 51.5 | 32.6 | 31% | +0.1 | Difference maker |
| Cade CunninghamG DET | +16.8 | +1.3 | -0.7 | 52.8 | 53.5 | 33.9 | 31% | -0.3 | Difference maker |
| LaMelo BallG MIN (from CHA) | +15.3 | +0.0 | +0.2 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 28.0 | 32% | +0.3 | Difference maker |
| Alperen SengunC HOU | +15.1 | -0.2 | -3.3 | 47.0 | 48.4 | 33.4 | 27% | +0.1 | Difference maker |
| Kawhi LeonardF TOR (from LAC) | +15.0 | -0.1 | +1.0 | 51.3 | 51.8 | 32.1 | 34% | +6.9 | Difference maker |
| Karl-Anthony TownsC NY | +15.0 | +0.1 | -1.7 | 48.9 | 49.8 | 30.9 | 26% | -1.6 | Difference maker |
| LeBron JamesF PHI (from LAL) | +14.7 | -0.5 | -0.7 | 48.9 | 46.3 | 33.1 | 28% | -3.5 | Difference maker |
| Domantas SabonisF SAC | +14.6 | -1.8 | -2.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 29.7 | 23% | -1.4 | Difference maker |
 Donovan MitchellG CLE | +14.4 | +0.7 | -2.9 | 47.7 | 49.4 | 33.4 | 33% | +2.0 | Difference maker |
| Jalen JohnsonF ATL | +13.5 | +1.3 | -0.1 | 50.0 | 52.3 | 35.2 | 27% | +5.2 | Difference maker |
| Jaylen BrownG PHI (from BOS) | +13.5 | -0.5 | -2.8 | 45.5 | 49.6 | 34.4 | 36% | +4.9 | Difference maker |
| Josh GiddeyG CHI | +13.0 | +0.5 | +0.2 | 49.1 | 50.2 | 32.1 | 25% | +2.5 | Difference maker |
| Stephen CurryG GS | +13.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 48.2 | 49.0 | 30.9 | 33% | +1.1 | Difference maker |
| Jalen DurenC DET | +12.6 | +1.3 | -0.4 | 48.9 | 49.5 | 28.3 | 24% | +2.7 | Difference maker |
| Tyrese HaliburtonG IND | +12.4 | +0.2 | -2.8 | 45.2 | 45.4 | 33.6 | 22% | -4.0 | Difference maker |
| Anthony EdwardsG MIN | +12.2 | +0.0 | -2.4 | 45.3 | 46.5 | 35.0 | 32% | +0.4 | Difference maker |
| James HardenG CLE | +12.1 | +0.7 | -3.0 | 45.2 | 46.3 | 34.9 | 29% | -0.7 | Difference maker |
| Trae YoungG WSH | +11.8 | +0.3 | +0.6 | 48.1 | 48.5 | 25.5 | 28% | +0.5 | Difference maker |
| Ja MorantG POR (from MEM) | +11.7 | +0.1 | +0.1 | 47.4 | 47.5 | 28.4 | 32% | -1.3 | Difference maker |
| Tyrese MaxeyG PHI | +11.6 | -0.5 | -2.4 | 44.1 | 46.5 | 38.0 | 30% | +4.0 | Difference maker |
| Evan MobleyC CLE | +11.5 | +0.7 | -3.1 | 44.4 | 45.0 | 32.0 | 23% | -2.1 | Difference maker |
| Jamal MurrayG DEN | +11.4 | +0.4 | -4.3 | 42.9 | 45.8 | 35.4 | 28% | +3.0 | Difference maker |
| Kristaps PorzingisC GS | +11.1 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 46.6 | 46.0 | 24.1 | 28% | -4.1 | Difference maker |
| Chet HolmgrenC OKC | +11.1 | +0.3 | -3.4 | 43.4 | 45.0 | 29.0 | 22% | +0.6 | Difference maker |
 Zion WilliamsonF NO | +11.1 | -0.7 | -2.8 | 43.1 | 42.6 | 29.7 | 26% | -9.6 | Difference maker |
| Dejounte MurrayG NO | +11.0 | -0.7 | -3.5 | 42.2 | 46.2 | 27.9 | 27% | +2.3 | Difference maker |
| Paolo BancheroF ORL | +10.9 | -0.7 | -1.9 | 43.7 | 44.3 | 34.7 | 28% | -2.8 | Difference maker |
 Ty JeromeG MEM | +10.7 | -0.1 | +3.3 | 49.3 | 55.2 | 22.7 | 33% | +4.5 | Difference maker |
| Damian LillardG POR (from MIL) | +10.6 | +0.1 | -2.1 | 44.0 | 44.7 | 36.1 | 28% | -0.3 | Difference maker |
| Scottie BarnesF TOR | +10.6 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 44.2 | 45.0 | 33.5 | 24% | +1.1 | Difference maker |
| Paul ReedF DET | +10.5 | +1.3 | -0.9 | 46.3 | 48.4 | 13.8 | 21% | +2.4 | Difference maker |
| T.J. McConnellG IND | +10.4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 44.6 | 45.6 | 17.2 | 24% | +1.3 | Difference maker |
| Jalen BrunsonG NY | +9.9 | +0.1 | -2.1 | 43.4 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 31% | -1.2 | Difference maker |
| Kevin DurantF HOU | +9.9 | -0.2 | -3.9 | 41.2 | 42.6 | 36.4 | 27% | +1.8 | Difference maker |
 Jusuf NurkicC UTAH | +9.9 | +0.7 | +0.6 | 46.6 | 47.0 | 26.4 | 19% | +3.3 | Difference maker |
| Stephon CastleG SA | +9.3 | +1.1 | -3.7 | 42.1 | 44.3 | 30.0 | 25% | +7.3 | Difference maker |
| Julius RandleF BKN (from MIN) | +9.2 | -3.0 | -1.3 | 40.4 | 42.9 | 33.1 | 27% | +1.2 | Difference maker |
| Isaiah HartensteinC OKC | +9.2 | +0.3 | -4.1 | 40.9 | 43.5 | 24.3 | 16% | +0.0 | Difference maker |
| Jalen WilliamsG OKC | +9.1 | +0.3 | -3.5 | 41.3 | 42.4 | 28.4 | 26% | -1.0 | Difference maker |
| Pascal SiakamF IND | +9.0 | -1.1 | +0.4 | 43.7 | 44.4 | 33.2 | 30% | +1.1 | Difference maker |
| Franz WagnerF ORL | +8.9 | -0.7 | -3.1 | 40.5 | 41.4 | 30.0 | 27% | -2.3 | Difference maker |
| Deni AvdijaF POR | +8.8 | +0.1 | +1.4 | 45.8 | 48.8 | 33.4 | 30% | +3.9 | Difference maker |
| Alex SarrC WSH | +8.8 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 46.2 | 46.6 | 27.2 | 26% | +5.5 | Difference maker |
| Derik QueenC NO | +8.7 | -0.7 | -1.1 | 42.4 | 42.1 | 25.0 | 22% | - | Difference maker |
| Cooper FlaggF DAL | +8.7 | -1.0 | +0.9 | 44.0 | 42.9 | 33.6 | 27% | - | Difference maker |
| Jarrett AllenC CLE | +8.7 | +0.7 | -2.9 | 41.9 | 42.6 | 27.2 | 20% | +0.9 | Difference maker |
| Nikola VucevicC ORL (from BOS) | +8.5 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 40.9 | 42.7 | 28.4 | 22% | -3.5 | Difference maker |
 Darius GarlandG LAC | +8.1 | -1.7 | 0.0 | 41.8 | 41.3 | 29.8 | 27% | -2.5 | Difference maker |
| De'Aaron FoxG SA | +8.1 | +1.1 | -3.5 | 41.2 | 41.1 | 31.0 | 25% | -0.7 | Difference maker |
| Michael Porter Jr.F BKN | +8.0 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 43.4 | 45.5 | 32.5 | 31% | +3.8 | Difference maker |
| Bam AdebayoC MIA | +8.0 | +1.7 | +0.8 | 46.0 | 46.6 | 32.4 | 25% | +0.5 | Difference maker |
| Austin ReavesG LAL | +8.0 | -1.1 | -4.9 | 37.4 | 41.9 | 34.6 | 27% | +3.9 | Difference maker |
| Devin BookerG PHX | +7.9 | -0.9 | +1.3 | 43.7 | 44.7 | 33.6 | 32% | +1.2 | Difference maker |
Which teams lift their players
DK points per 36 minutes each team adds for every player on the floor, 2025-26. Coaching, pace and scheme.
MIA+1.7DET+1.3ATL+1.3SA+1.1CLE+0.7UTAH+0.7BKN-3.0MIL-2.1SAC-1.8LAC-1.7LAL-1.1Regular season games since 2022-23, recent seasons weighted more. Model v1.0.
What the NBA Player Index measures
Every DraftKings point an NBA player scores comes from two places: the player and the team around him. The Player Index splits the two. Each game is credited to the player, his team that season, the opponent and the teammates who share the floor with him. A ridge regression across every regular season game since 2022-23 estimates how much of the production belongs to each one.
Player value is DK points per 36 minutes above an average player on an average team. System lift is what his current team adds through coaching, pace and scheme. Teammate drag is what strong teammates take away, because they use the same possessions.
Difference makers vs system products
A difference maker produces on any team. A system product produces because of the team around him. When a system product changes teams, his per-minute production usually falls. When a difference maker moves, it usually follows him.
In the NBA the system part is small. Team lift runs from about 2 points below to about 1.5 points above average per 36 minutes, while the best players sit 20 to 30 points above average. Most of what you see in an NBA box score belongs to the player. The teammates matter more than the scheme.
Who steps up when the star sits
For every team, the index finds the top player by player value and compares each teammate's DK points per game in games the star missed against games he played. A large step-up tells you who absorbs the usage when the star is out. That is the first place to look on a late scratch.
Blocked by teammates marks strong per-minute players held back by short minutes or by teammates who use the same touches. A trade or an injury can free them up.
How accurate the model is
We tested the model on the 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons without letting it see the season it graded. For players who changed teams it predicted season DK points per 36 minutes with an average error of 3.71, against 4.41 for last season's rate pulled toward the league average. Without the team and teammate terms the error for team changers rose to 4.81, so the system part carries real information. For players who stayed on the same team the model and the simple method are close (3.71 against 3.60).
Frequently asked questions
What is a system product in the NBA?
A player who gets a large share of his value from the team around him. On this page, a system product gets 35% or more of his value from the team and scores 20+ DK points per game over his last 10 games.
How often does the NBA Player Index update?
Every day during the season, after the previous night's box scores load.
Does the index predict tonight's points?
No. It is a ranking built from full seasons. Use it to judge who is real and who borrows production from his team. Use the NBA projections for tonight's points.
Why is a player listed as Blocked by teammates?
His per-minute value is above average, but he plays short minutes or shares the ball with strong teammates. A trade or an injury can open up more minutes and touches.
Is this tool free?
Yes. The full page is free with no account.