PGA Monte Carlo Sim

PGA Tour Monte Carlo tournament simulations

Every PGA Tour event is simulated 8,000 times at the stroke level by the BankrollSZN PGA projection engine. For every golfer in the field you get a chance to win, to finish in the top 5, top 10 and top 20, and to make the cut, next to the de-vigged FanDuel odds. It is free with an account.

A green number marks a golfer the sim rates 2 points or more above the market. A red number marks one it rates 2 points or more below.

How a golf tournament is simulated

Each golfer gets a skill level in strokes per round from strokes gained, recent form, course history and course fit, plus a round-to-round spread. The sim then plays every round, applies the cut after round two, and plays the weekend for the golfers who made it. Weather is applied by tee time wave, so a golfer in the windy half of the draw pays for it.

The win and top finish odds come from counting how often each golfer finishes first, top 5, top 10 and top 20 across the 8,000 runs.

Why the golf picks are on paper

We tested the engine against the FanDuel price on 18 events from June to November 2026. The market was better in every finish market: win, top 5, top 10 and top 20. So the picks are tracked on paper until the record proves itself.

Up to 5 top 10 and top 20 picks are made each week on the Wednesday evening before the event. The price is a 50/50 blend of the sim and the de-vigged market. A pick needs 5 percent expected value or more at odds of +1500 or shorter, and each golfer gets one pick at most.

What the History tab is for

Every pick is written once at the FanDuel price and graded after the final round at one unit per pick. A tie at the last paid place is graded with dead-heat rules: a golfer tied for 10th with three others on a top 10 bet is paid on a quarter of the stake.

Frequently asked questions