Mike Malott gets a five-round home fight against Joaquin Buckley in Edmonton, and it's the closest fight on this 13-bout UFC DFS slate. DraftKings and FanDuel both give us a card split down the middle: five favorites at -285 or shorter, and four fights where the distance price sits at +265 or longer. The headliner is a pick'em on the moneyline, so the real decisions on this card happen in the middle of the lineup.
The Card
| Bout | Weight | Rounds | Moneyline | Goes the distance | DK salary | FD salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley | Welterweight | 5 | -135 / +114 | +142 | $8,400 / $7,800 | $16 / $16 |
| Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | Women's Flyweight | 3 | -340 / +270 | -340 | $9,300 / $6,900 | $22 / $9 |
| Cristian Pérez vs Kyle Nelson | Lightweight | 3 | -340 / +290 | +390 | $9,200 / $7,000 | $21 / $9 |
| Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault | Middleweight | 3 | -198 / +164 | +196 | $8,700 / $7,500 | $17 / $13 |
| Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba | Bantamweight | 3 | -170 / +152 | -113 | $8,600 / $7,600 | $17 / $13 |
| Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr | Lightweight | 3 | -285 / +230 | +630 | $9,100 / $7,100 | $20 / $10 |
| Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser | Heavyweight | 3 | -225 / +198 | +154 | $8,800 / $7,400 | $18 / $12 |
| Nick Galanti vs Julien LeBlanc | Middleweight | 3 | -650 / +500 | +450 | $9,500 / $6,700 | $23 / $8 |
| Joel Faglier vs Javad Mahjoub | Heavyweight | 3 | -125 / +112 | +265 | $7,900 / $8,300 | $14 / $15 |
| Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller | Women's Flyweight | 3 | -258 / +225 | -280 | $9,000 / $7,200 | $19 / $10 |
| Steven Koslow vs Chad Anheliger | Bantamweight | 3 | -164 / +140 | +148 | $8,000 / $8,200 | $14 / $15 |
| Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler | Women's Bantamweight | 3 | -310 / +260 | -132 | $8,900 / $7,300 | $18 / $11 |
| Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You | Bantamweight | 3 | -125 / +118 | -138 | $8,500 / $7,700 | $16 / $15 |
DraftKings priced two underdogs above their favorites, Mahjoub at $8,300 over Faglier and Anheliger at $8,200 over Koslow, so both favorites come at a discount. Our Elo ratings have Kyle Nelson and Cristian Pérez close to a coin flip, while the books hang -340 on Pérez. I'm siding with the books there because Nelson has been knocked out in four of his six UFC losses. Every outcome lives on the UFC fight simulator.
Fights to Target
Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr: Lightweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Nallo -285, Landwehr +230. Method: Nallo by KO -135, by SUB +600, by decision +1200; Landwehr by KO +500, by SUB +750, by decision +1500. Distance: +630.
The angle: This is my cash fight, and the books don't expect it to see the judges.
- You won't find a fight on this card the books trust less to reach the scorecards: +630 to go the distance, with Nallo -135 to win by knockout. He lands 8.26 significant strikes per minute in a short UFC run, one KO win and one KO loss. That loss came in round one in April, so he can get caught too. At $9,100 he's the guy I want in cash, and he's my second FanDuel MVP.
- Landwehr is 38, moving up to lightweight, and has been stopped by strikes in each of his last three fights. Five of his six UFC losses came by knockout. At $7,100 he's cheap, and a +500 KO price isn't nothing. I'd keep him to a small GPP share.
Lean: Nallo by KO, cash on both sites and a FanDuel MVP option
Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley: Welterweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Malott -135, Buckley +114. Method: Malott by KO +380, by SUB +550, by decision +260; Buckley by KO +230, by SUB +2000, by decision +500. Distance: +142.
The angle: Five rounds make Malott a DraftKings cash play even if this goes long, and Buckley is the GPP swing.
- Malott has won four straight, and he does it everywhere: three KO wins, three submission wins and two decisions in the UFC. He lands 3.92 significant strikes per minute and takes people down 1.56 times per 15 minutes, which you can see on the UFC fighter matchups page. Twenty-five minutes of that on DraftKings is a high floor. He'll be the most popular fighter on DraftKings, and I'm fine eating that chalk.
- Buckley is the one guy who can blow up the main event chalk. He has eight knockouts in his 11 UFC wins, and the +230 KO price is the shortest method price in this fight. Is he in form? Not really, he lost his last two on the cards. Still, at $7,800 and far less popular than Malott, he's the best leverage play on the card if the power shows up.
Lean: Malott by decision, DraftKings cash; Buckley by KO is the GPP swing
Nick Galanti vs Julien LeBlanc: Middleweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Galanti -650, LeBlanc +500. Method: Galanti by KO +360, by SUB -135, by decision +650; LeBlanc by KO +1100, by SUB +2500, by decision +1400. Distance: +450.
The angle: Galanti is a -650 favorite, and I think he's the safest early finish we have.
- The books have Galanti at -135 to win by submission, and he's also -105 to win in round one. His UFC debut in August was a knockout that took under a minute. At $9,500 he's the most expensive fighter on DraftKings, and he's worth it.
- LeBlanc lost his own debut by first-round submission in April. At $6,700 he's the cheapest fighter on DraftKings for a reason. I'd pass.
Lean: Galanti by submission, cash core and my top FanDuel MVP
Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault: Middleweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Daukaus -198, Barriault +164. Method: Daukaus by KO +280, by SUB +270, by decision +440; Barriault by KO +400, by SUB +2200, by decision +470. Distance: +196.
The angle: I'll call this the GPP fight, a lower-owned favorite with two ways to finish.
- Daukaus got knocked out in round one in June, and that's why people will skip him. I don't love the chin, but he throws up 1.97 submission attempts per 15 minutes and his KO and submission prices are almost the same. At $8,700 he's a little less popular than the favorites above him, and that's the window.
- Barriault fights like defense is optional: he lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute and eats 5.94. He lost his last two by decision. At $7,500 he's a DraftKings volume dart only if you think it goes the distance.
Lean: Daukaus by submission, GPP
Injuries and News
| Fighter | Change | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | Fights at lightweight, he was listed at featherweight | He moves up a division in a fight the books expect to end early, so keep him to GPP darts |
| Fighter | Flag | Scratch risk | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | Weight class change, age 38 | Low | Already a small GPP play, no change |
| Kyle Daukaus | KO loss under 6 months ago | Low | The chin is the risk, which keeps him lower owned |
| Mandel Nallo | Age 37 | Low | No change, still a cash play |
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | Age 37 | Low | No change |
| Marc-Andre Barriault | Age 36 | Low | No change |
| Jhonata Diniz | 12 months out | Moderate | Watch the layoff, GPP only |
| Katlyn Cerminara | 31 months out, age 37 | Moderate | Long layoff, I'd keep exposure light |
| Chad Anheliger | 23 months out, age 39 | Moderate | Long layoff at 39, I'd pass |
| Steven Koslow | 46 months out | Moderate | Almost four years away, ring rust is real |
Updated every hour on the UFC late changes board.
Model Bets
| Bet | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Faglier by decision | +650 | 15% | +15% |
| Mandel Nallo by decision | +1300 | 8% | +12% |
| Nick Galanti by decision | +700 | 14% | +11% |
| Steven Koslow in round 2 | +500 | 18% | +6% |
Joel Faglier wins by decision (+650) | Edge: +15%
The fight simulator gives Faglier a 15% chance to win on the cards, and +650 implies about 13%. It's a debut heavyweight fight, so the edge is small but real.
Mandel Nallo wins by decision (+1300) | Edge: +12%
Our sims have Nallo winning a decision 8% of the time against about 7% implied. Think of it as a small hedge on the Nallo KO call above.
Nick Galanti wins by decision (+700) | Edge: +11%
The simulation gives Galanti a 14% chance to go 15 minutes and get the nod, and +700 implies 12.5%. It pays if LeBlanc survives the early storm.
Steven Koslow wins in round 2 (+500) | Edge: +6%
The simulation has Koslow winning in round two 18% of the time, and the price implies about 17%. Thin edge, small stake.
These come off the fight simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Compare every price on the UFC odds comparison.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti | Julien LeBlanc | $9,500 | $23 | -650 | SUB | Cash |
| Cristian Pérez | Kyle Nelson | $9,200 | $21 | -340 | KO | Cash |
| Mandel Nallo | Nate Landwehr | $9,100 | $20 | -285 | KO | Cash |
| Erin Blanchfield | Jasmine Jasudavicius | $9,300 | $22 | -340 | Decision | Cash |
| Melissa Croden | Chelsea Chandler | $8,900 | $18 | -310 | Decision | Cash |
| Mike Malott | Joaquin Buckley | $8,400 | $16 | -135 | Decision | Cash |
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | Mike Malott | $7,800 | $16 | +114 | KO | GPP |
| Jhonata Diniz | Tanner Boser | $8,800 | $18 | -225 | KO | GPP |
| Kyle Daukaus | Marc-Andre Barriault | $8,700 | $17 | -198 | SUB | GPP |
| Joel Faglier | Javad Mahjoub | $7,900 | $14 | -125 | SUB | GPP |
| Nate Landwehr | Mandel Nallo | $7,100 | $10 | +230 | KO | GPP |
| Fighter | FD | Moneyline | Round 1 finish | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Galanti | $23 | -650 | -105 | Biggest favorite, submission threat early |
| Mandel Nallo | $20 | -285 | +100 | KO power against a fighter stopped three straight times |
Blue marks a cash play, orange marks a GPP play.
FanDuel players are crowding onto Nallo more than any other fighter, while on DraftKings the most popular fighter is Malott, whose takedowns and top time only count there. Mackenzie Stiller is a debut dog who'll be far more popular on FanDuel at $10 than on DraftKings, so I'd fade her there.
Every projection lives on this week's UFC DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free UFC lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
My cash core is Galanti, Nallo and Malott. Galanti and Nallo are the two likeliest early finishes on the card, and Malott gets 25 minutes to pile up DraftKings volume. You'll be paying up for three popular fighters, so you'll need to find savings somewhere else on the card.
Buckley is the pivot off the chalk. He's cheaper than Malott, a lot less popular, and he's got eight knockouts in the UFC. If he lands one on Malott, the field that stacked the main event favorite is in trouble. On FanDuel, Galanti is my MVP, with Nallo right behind him.
Before lock, check the late changes board for Landwehr's move to lightweight and for any fighter pulled after weigh-ins. Cerminara and Koslow both come off long layoffs, so keep an eye on the news there. More cards in the UFC DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this card
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN UFC tools: UFC DFS projections, the free UFC lineup optimizer, the UFC fight simulator, UFC fighter matchups, and UFC odds comparison.