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UFC Late Changes & Injury Watch

Fighters most likely to be scratched or not fighting at 100%

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Saturday, October 17Locks in 5d 0h
Saturday, October 24Locks in 11d 17h
Saturday, October 31Locks in 19d 0h

Scratch Risk

68 of 68 fighters

Tainara Lisboa

vs Lucia Szabova · Saturday, October 31

Out3.9%

Fights 3Y

2

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

2

Jhonata Diniz

vs Tanner Boser · Saturday, October 17

Out3.9%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Steven Koslow

vs Chad Anheliger · Saturday, October 17

Out3.9%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Nick Klein

vs Joe Kropschot · Saturday, October 31

Out3.9%

Fights 3Y

2

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Rodrigo Sezinando

vs Theodor Berggren · Saturday, October 31

Out3.9%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Katlyn Cerminara

vs Mackenzie Stiller · Saturday, October 17

Out3.0%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

2

Chad Anheliger

vs Steven Koslow · Saturday, October 17

Out3.0%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

2

Yana Santos

vs Luana Santos · Saturday, October 31

Out3.0%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

2

JeongYeong Lee

vs Julian Erosa · Saturday, October 31

Out3.0%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Nate Landwehr

vs Mandel Nallo · Saturday, October 17

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

2

Kyle Daukaus

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Saturday, October 17

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Mandel Nallo

vs Nate Landwehr · Saturday, October 17

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Azamat Murzakanov

vs Dominick Reyes · Saturday, October 24

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

1

Not 100%

1

Nikita Krylov

vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev · Saturday, October 24

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Theodor Berggren

vs Rodrigo Sezinando · Saturday, October 31

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Andre Petroski

vs Azamat Bekoev · Saturday, October 31

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

7

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Julian Erosa

vs JeongYeong Lee · Saturday, October 31

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Kyle Nelson

vs Cristian Pérez · Saturday, October 17

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Tanner Boser

vs Jhonata Diniz · Saturday, October 17

Out2.3%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Jasmine Jasudavicius

vs Erin Blanchfield · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

7

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Marc-Andre Barriault

vs Kyle Daukaus · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Alexander Volkanovski

vs Movsar Evloev · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Alexander Volkov

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Dominick Reyes

vs Azamat Murzakanov · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Abus Magomedov

vs Cam Rowston · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Renato Moicano

vs Tom Nolan · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Randy Brown

vs Carlos Leal · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Talita Alencar

vs Piera Rodriguez · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Francis Marshall

vs Gaston Bolaños · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

1

Mike Malott

vs Joaquin Buckley · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Joaquin Buckley

vs Mike Malott · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Erin Blanchfield

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Timmy Cuamba

vs Louis Jourdain · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Julien LeBlanc

vs Nick Galanti · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Chelsea Chandler

vs Melissa Croden · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Melissa Croden

vs Chelsea Chandler · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

SuYoung You

vs Cody Chovancek · Saturday, October 17

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Movsar Evloev

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Petr Yan

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Merab Dvalishvili

vs Petr Yan · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Lone'er Kavanagh

vs Ramazan Temirov · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Ramazan Temirov

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Rizvan Kuniev

vs Alexander Volkov · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Losene Keita

vs Aaron Pico · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

2

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Aaron Pico

vs Losene Keita · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

2

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

vs Nikita Krylov · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Cam Rowston

vs Abus Magomedov · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Nurullo Aliev

vs Grant Dawson · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Grant Dawson

vs Nurullo Aliev · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

5

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Colby Thicknesse

vs Asaf Chopurov · Saturday, October 24

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

3

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Tom Nolan

vs Renato Moicano · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Carlos Leal

vs Randy Brown · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Luana Santos

vs Yana Santos · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

6

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Piera Rodriguez

vs Talita Alencar · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Farman Hasanov

vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

1

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

vs Farman Hasanov · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

2

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Azamat Bekoev

vs Andre Petroski · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Gaston Bolaños

vs Francis Marshall · Saturday, October 31

Out1.8%

Fights 3Y

4

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Cristian Pérez

vs Kyle Nelson · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Louis Jourdain

vs Timmy Cuamba · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Nick Galanti

vs Julien LeBlanc · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Javad Mahjoub

vs Joel Faglier · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Joel Faglier

vs Javad Mahjoub · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Mackenzie Stiller

vs Katlyn Cerminara · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Cody Chovancek

vs SuYoung You · Saturday, October 17

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Asaf Chopurov

vs Colby Thicknesse · Saturday, October 24

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Joe Kropschot

vs Nick Klein · Saturday, October 31

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Lucia Szabova

vs Tainara Lisboa · Saturday, October 31

Out1.1%

Fights 3Y

0

WDs 3Y

0

Not 100%

0

Card changes

Weight class
Nate Landwehr fights at Lightweight (listed Featherweight)
Saturday, October 17 · seen Oct 8, 8:10 PM CT

Scratch % is the chance he does not fight on this card. History part is a logistic fit on 7,854 UFC bookings (2019-2026, 272 late scratches). A fit on 2019-2023 beat the flat base rate on 2024-2026. News, odds and site-status bumps are fixed rules, not fitted. Not 100% flags are context: the betting odds that drive our projections already price most of them.

How the scratch risk works

Scratch % is the chance a fighter does not fight on this card. The base comes from 7,854 UFC bookings from 2019 to 2026, with 272 late scratches. The average fighter today has about a 1.8 percent chance.

A withdrawal in the last 12 months raises the chance about four times. A layoff of a year or more raises it about 1.7 times. A KO loss in the last fight raises it a little. A UFC debut lowers it. A model fit on 2019 to 2023 beat the flat base rate on 2024 to 2026 bookings.

Live signals raise the number: an injury, withdrawal, weight or travel story that names him, a DraftKings or FanDuel status flag, or sportsbook odds that moved 8 or more points against him. These bumps are fixed rules, not fitted.

What not 100% means

The Not 100% column lists signs a fighter may not be at his best: a short-notice replacement, a new opponent late in camp, a weight class change or catchweight, weight-cut or injury news, a KO loss under six months ago, a long layoff, a quick turnaround, or age 36 and up.

Our projections start from the betting odds, and the odds already price most of these signs. Use the flags to check the news before lock, not as a reason to fade a fighter by themselves.

Frequently asked questions

What happens if a fighter pulls out after lock?

He scores zero in your lineup. Check this board in the final hours before the first fight.

How fast does the board update?

The card and the DraftKings and FanDuel pools are checked every hour, and every 15 minutes on Fridays and Saturdays. News is checked every 30 minutes.

Is the scratch risk a betting tool?

No. It is a DFS risk check. Most fighters sit near the 1.8 percent base rate, and live news moves the number more than history does.