UFC DFS Projections
Saturday, October 17
DraftKings and FanDuel projections for every fighter on the UFC card. The win, KO, submission and round odds come from the sportsbooks; strikes, takedowns and control time come from each fighter's record against his opponent's. Updated every 30 minutes.
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How the UFC projections work
Every fight starts as a table of outcomes: who wins, whether it ends by KO, submission or decision, and in which round. The betting market sets that table. We de-vig the DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbook prices for the moneyline, method of victory, round betting and goes-the-distance markets.
Each fighter's strike, takedown and control rates then fill in the volume for every outcome. A fighter's rate is a blend of what he lands and what his opponent usually absorbs, weighted toward his most recent fights.
We tested the method on 2,267 UFC fights from 2021 to 2026. The projections missed DraftKings points by 30.9 on average, against 35.6 for a last-five-fights average, and ranked fighters within a card about twice as well.
How to read floor, ceiling and win odds
MMA scoring is all or nothing. A first round finish pays 90 bonus points on DraftKings and 100 on FanDuel, so the ceiling matters more than the average in tournaments.
Floor is the 15th percentile and ceiling the 85th percentile from a 4,000 draw fight simulation. R1 finish is the chance he wins inside the first round.
A fighter tagged Elo has no betting line yet. His win chance comes from his Elo rating until the books post odds.
DraftKings and FanDuel UFC scoring
DraftKings: strike 0.2, significant strike 0.2 more, control time 0.03 per second, takedown 5, reversal 5, knockdown 10. Win bonus 90 in round 1, 70 in round 2, 45 in round 3, 40 in rounds 4 and 5, 30 by decision, plus 25 for a win inside 60 seconds. Six fighters under a $50,000 cap.
FanDuel: significant strike 0.6, takedown 6, knockdown 12, submission attempt 5. Win bonus 100, 75, 50, 35 and 25 by round, 20 by decision. One MVP scores 1.5 times, plus five fighters under a $100 cap.
Frequently asked questions
How often do the UFC projections update?
Every 30 minutes during fight week. Odds, the DraftKings and FanDuel player pools and late replacements refresh on their own schedules and feed each update.
Why is a fighter projected at zero?
DraftKings or FanDuel lists him out, usually after a withdrawal. Check the Late Changes page for the replacement.
Do the projections use betting odds?
Yes. The moneyline, method of victory, round betting and goes-the-distance prices set the outcome table. Significant strike and takedown props also adjust volume when the books post them.
What does ownership by contest type mean?
Single entry and 3-max fields cluster more on the top plays than 150-max fields, so the same fighter carries a different ownership in each.