Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev headline UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi, and the books can't split them: -110 against -108. That main event sits on top of a 14-fight UFC DFS slate with two five-round fights on top for DraftKings and FanDuel players, plus four favorites at -200 or shorter further down. The pricing story is in the co-main, where Merab Dvalishvili is a +120 underdog at $7,400 on DraftKings, and the whole field has noticed.
The Card
| Bout | Weight | Rounds | Moneyline | Goes the distance | DK salary | FD salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev | Featherweight | 5 | -110 / -108 | -225 | $8,200 / $8,000 | $16 / $16 |
| Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili | Bantamweight | 5 | -135 / +120 | -295 | $8,800 / $7,400 | $19 / $13 |
| Ramazan Temirov vs Lone'er Kavanagh | Flyweight | 3 | -102 / -110 | +116 | $8,300 / $7,900 | $13 / $14 |
| Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev | Heavyweight | 3 | -122 / +105 | -200 | $8,400 / $7,800 | $15 / $12 |
| Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita | Featherweight | 3 | -144 / +124 | +165 | $8,300 / $7,900 | $15 / $12 |
| Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes | Light Heavyweight | 3 | -205 / +170 | +320 | $9,000 / $7,200 | $20 / $10 |
| Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov | Light Heavyweight | 3 | -500 / +410 | +630 | $9,400 / $6,800 | $22 / $8 |
| Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston | Middleweight | 3 | -120 / +105 | +150 | $8,400 / $7,800 | $15 / $13 |
| Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev | Lightweight | 3 | -115 / +100 | -196 | $8,500 / $7,700 | $15 / $12 |
| Asaf Chopurov vs Colby Thicknesse | Bantamweight | 3 | -590 / +440 | +180 | $9,500 / $6,700 | $23 / $8 |
| Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun | Middleweight | 3 | -158 / +136 | -275 | $8,900 / $7,300 | $18 / $10 |
| Daniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki | Featherweight | 3 | -120 / +102 | +180 | $8,600 / $7,600 | $17 / $14 |
| Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon | Lightweight | 3 | -155 / +136 | +190 | $8,700 / $7,500 | $17 / $11 |
| Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari | Women's Strawweight | 3 | -360 / +330 | -250 | $9,200 / $7,000 | $21 / $9 |
Yakhyaev at +630 to go the distance is the loudest number on the board, and Murzakanov's fight at +320 is the only other one priced that far from the cards. Our Elo ratings have Merab ahead of Yan, 1861 to 1835, even though the books hang -135 on Yan. Every outcome lives on the UFC fight simulator.
Fights to Target
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov: Light Heavyweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Yakhyaev -500, Krylov +410. Method: Yakhyaev by KO -120, by SUB +280, by decision +1200; Krylov by KO +750, by SUB +1400, by decision +1600. Distance: +630.
The angle: Cash fight, and I don't think the judges get a say.
- Yakhyaev hasn't needed a judge yet: all four of his UFC wins came by stoppage, two knockouts and two submissions. The books have him -120 by KO and +280 by submission, so he's got two roads to an early finish, and he wins in round one in just over half of our sims. At $9,400 he's priced like the anchor of the slate, and he should be. I love him here, on both sites.
- Krylov comes in off a knockout loss in July, and three of his last five fights ended with him stopped by strikes. He's $6,800 for a reason, and a +750 KO price doesn't change my mind. I'd pass.
Lean: Yakhyaev by KO, a cash play on DraftKings and FanDuel and my first MVP pick
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili: Bantamweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Yan -135, Dvalishvili +120. Method: Yan by KO +460, by SUB +3000, by decision +140; Dvalishvili by KO +1600, by SUB +1600, by decision +175. Distance: -295.
The angle: Twenty-five minutes of wrestling makes this the DraftKings volume fight, and Merab's salary is why.
- DraftKings has Merab priced like a guy who's going to lose, which is a strange call for a fighter who scores this way. He averages 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes, a number you can line up against Yan on the UFC fighter matchups page, and 12 of his UFC wins came on the cards. He did drop his last fight on the cards in December, so he isn't bulletproof. At $7,400 he'll be the most popular fighter on both sites, and I'm eating that chalk anyway. Cash core.
- Yan is the better bet to win, and he's never been finished in the UFC: all three of his losses went to the judges. He's won four straight on the cards and lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute. The problem is DraftKings: every minute he spends on his back is volume he doesn't get. At $8,800 he's my pivot off the Merab chalk if you think he keeps it standing.
Lean: Yan by decision to win the fight, but Merab is the DraftKings cash play either way
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes: Light Heavyweight, 3 rounds
Odds: Murzakanov -205, Reyes +170. Method: Murzakanov by KO -115, by SUB +2000, by decision +600; Reyes by KO +300, by SUB +1800, by decision +800. Distance: +320.
The angle: The GPP fight: two southpaw strikers, a short KO price on the favorite and a live dog at $7,200.
- Murzakanov finishes people: six of his seven UFC wins came by knockout. He's also 37 and got knocked out in April for the only loss of his UFC run, and the books still have him -115 to win by KO. At $9,000 he's a bit less popular than the chalk above him, and that's where I want to be in tournaments. GPP.
- Is Reyes done? His last five say no: three knockout wins, a KO loss, then a decision win in April. He's also been knocked out four times in the UFC, so the chin is a fair worry against this kind of power. Still, +300 by KO at $7,200 is the best dart on the card. GPP only.
Lean: Murzakanov by KO, GPP; Reyes by KO is the swing
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev: Featherweight, 5 rounds
Odds: Volkanovski -110, Evloev -108. Method: Volkanovski by KO +450, by SUB +2200, by decision +200; Evloev by KO +1000, by SUB +1300, by decision +155. Distance: -225.
The angle: A coin flip over five rounds, and on DraftKings the style of the fight picks a side for us.
- Nobody in the UFC has beaten Evloev. He's 10-0, and every one of those wins came on the cards. That reads like a low ceiling until you give him 25 minutes: he averages 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, and the top time adds up on DraftKings. He's also $200 cheaper than Volkanovski. He works in DraftKings cash, and he pairs fine with Merab if you want both wrestlers.
- Volkanovski brings the bigger punch to this fight, even at 38. He got knocked out in back-to-back fights in 2023 and 2024, but he's won back-to-back decisions since. His +450 KO price is the shorter finish here, and he'll be less popular than Evloev at $8,200. He's my GPP side.
Lean: Evloev by decision, DraftKings cash; Volkanovski is the GPP side
Injuries and News
| Fighter | Change | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|
| Abubakar Vagaev | Fights at middleweight, he was listed at welterweight | He moves up as a -158 favorite in a fight the books expect to go the distance, so keep exposure light |
| Fighter | Flag | Scratch risk | What it means for DFS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | Age 38 | Low | No change, still my GPP side of the main event |
| Azamat Murzakanov | Age 37, KO loss last time out | Low | The chin is the question, which keeps him lower owned |
| Alexander Volkov | Age 37 | Low | No change |
| Dominick Reyes | Age 36 | Low | Already a GPP dart, no change |
| Abus Magomedov | Age 36 | Low | No change |
| Nikita Krylov | KO loss under 6 months ago | Low | One more reason to pass |
| Abubakar Vagaev | Weight class change | Low | Light exposure only |
Updated every hour on the UFC late changes board.
Model Bets
| Bet | Best price | Sim chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev by decision | +1300 | 9% | +23% |
| Azamat Murzakanov by decision | +650 | 14% | +7% |
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev wins by decision (+1300) | Edge: +23%
The simulation has Yakhyaev winning on the cards about 9% of the time, and +1300 implies about 7%. Think of it as insurance on the KO call: in the sims where Krylov survives, Yakhyaev still takes most of those fights.
Azamat Murzakanov wins by decision (+650) | Edge: +7%
Our sims give Murzakanov a decision win in 14% of runs, while the +650 price puts it near 13%. It's a thin edge and it runs against my KO lean, so size it small.
These come off the fight simulation and are posted for tracking only. Nothing here is a wagering recommendation.
Compare every price on the UFC odds comparison.
Not financial advice. These are model leans, not guarantees. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Top Plays
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | Nikita Krylov | $9,400 | $22 | -500 | KO or SUB | Cash |
| Asaf Chopurov | Colby Thicknesse | $9,500 | $23 | -590 | KO or SUB | Cash |
| Merab Dvalishvili | Petr Yan | $7,400 | $13 | +120 | Decision | Cash |
| Movsar Evloev | Alexander Volkanovski | $8,000 | $16 | -108 | Decision | Cash |
| Fighter | Opponent | DK | FD | Moneyline | Path | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov | Dominick Reyes | $9,000 | $20 | -205 | KO | GPP |
| Dominick Reyes | Azamat Murzakanov | $7,200 | $10 | +170 | KO | GPP |
| Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili | $8,800 | $19 | -135 | Decision | GPP |
| Alexander Volkanovski | Movsar Evloev | $8,200 | $16 | -110 | Decision | GPP |
| Aaron Pico | Losene Keita | $8,300 | $15 | -144 | KO | GPP |
| Ramazan Temirov | Lone'er Kavanagh | $8,300 | $13 | -102 | KO | GPP |
| Fighter | FD | Moneyline | Round 1 finish | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | $22 | -500 | OFF | Two finish paths, ends it early in half our sims |
| Asaf Chopurov | $23 | -590 | OFF | Biggest favorite on the card, KO or SUB |
Blue marks a cash play, orange marks a GPP play.
Merab draws an even bigger crowd on FanDuel at $13 than he does on DraftKings, and his top time only counts on DraftKings. Chopurov goes the other way: he's far less popular on FanDuel at $23 than he is on DraftKings, which makes him a sharper MVP than the field thinks.
Every projection lives on this week's UFC DFS projections, and you can build around these in the free UFC lineup optimizer.
Final Thoughts
I'm building cash around Yakhyaev, Chopurov and Merab this week. The first two have the best shot at early stoppages on this card, and Merab gives you 25 minutes of wrestling at a salary that leaves room for the rest of your build. Chopurov is making his UFC debut, so the -590 price is doing all the talking for him. I'm fine with that in cash, less so in a single-entry tournament.
Yan is the pivot I like best. Everyone's on Merab, and if Yan keeps it standing and wins on the cards, a big chunk of the field takes the hit. Reyes at $7,200 is the cheaper swing. On FanDuel, Yakhyaev is my MVP, with Chopurov right behind him.
Lock is early this week, 9 a.m. Central, because the card is in Abu Dhabi. Before then, check the late changes board for anyone pulled or anyone who missed weight, and keep Vagaev's move up to middleweight in mind. More cards in the UFC DFS articles archive.
Tools used for this card
Every number in this playbook comes off the free BankrollSZN UFC tools: UFC DFS projections, the free UFC lineup optimizer, the UFC fight simulator, UFC fighter matchups, and UFC odds comparison.